No, you aren't. You think one questionable poll proves your theory? If you truly pay attention to polls as much as you suggest, then you would know one outlier poll means nothing right now. Obama's RCP average against Romney in Oregon was 6 points, and he ended up winning by 12. Obama got a +2 poll in Connecticut against Romney and Obama went on to win it by over 17 points, yet when that +2 poll came out, I'm sure you would have been there claiming your theory about Connecticut being a swing state was TOTALLY true.
Cherry picking polls and making arbitrary demographic calculations is not a great way to make accurate predictions.
