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  SD-Targeted Persuasion: Clinton +3
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Author Topic: SD-Targeted Persuasion: Clinton +3  (Read 3503 times)
Ebsy
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« on: May 30, 2016, 01:07:43 am »

Clinton: 50
Sanders: 47

I know almost nothing about this pollster, but apparently they had an Indiana poll that had Sanders +4.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/88a96b_6157397e1fb647dda9365d6067b5e0d9.pdf
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2016, 01:11:48 am »

Well, for what's its worth almost all the counties bordering South Dakota in Minnesota voted for Clinton ... in a caucus.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2016, 01:15:00 am »

Here are all of their other polls: http://www.targetedpersuasionpolls.com/#!public-polls/szoo1

They've only done 5 other states, but they've gotten the right candidate all 5 times (Sanders in Indiana, Rhode Island, and West Virginia and Clinton in Kentucky and Connecticut).
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2016, 01:25:13 am »

A South Dakota poll? I'll take what I can get.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #4 on: May 30, 2016, 01:35:13 am »

This could end up being a close race, though I'd expect Sanders to win, especially since Clinton is unlikely to put up any effort in South Dakota.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: May 30, 2016, 02:54:37 am »

It could be accurate. I think South Dakota and New Mexico will probably be the closest states on 6/7. I'm hoping Sanders pulls it off just for the sake of the final primary map.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6 on: May 30, 2016, 03:52:42 am »

It could be accurate. I think South Dakota and New Mexico will probably be the closest states on 6/7. I'm hoping Sanders pulls it off just for the sake of the final primary map.

New Mexico will be a closed primary where almost half the voters will be minorities. I don't see how it will be close unless the state's Hispanics vote radically different compared to those in Texas and Arizona.
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diskymike44
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« Reply #7 on: May 30, 2016, 04:20:00 am »

Everyone loves Hillary here, trust me lol.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2016, 04:43:05 am »

This is around the same as Nebraska...except Nebraska was a closed beauty contest and this is an open real primary. I'm skeptical. Especially since independents will have nowhere else to go except for the Dem side, as the GOP side is closed and already over.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: May 30, 2016, 04:44:33 am »

It could be accurate. I think South Dakota and New Mexico will probably be the closest states on 6/7. I'm hoping Sanders pulls it off just for the sake of the final primary map.

I'd be surprised if she didn't win NM easily.
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Shameless Bernie Hack
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« Reply #10 on: May 30, 2016, 04:48:39 am »

I mean, after the layoffs I don't expect Sanders to have much of a campaign there either beyond those lovely and oh-so-effective TV ads that Devine, Mulvaney, Longabaugh make.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #11 on: May 30, 2016, 08:55:43 am »

South Dakota went for Hillary in 2008 by 10 points. Let's not disregard that.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: May 30, 2016, 09:14:51 am »

South Dakota went for Hillary in 2008 by 10 points. Let's not disregard that.

She likely only won it because she campaigned there while Obama ignored it and pivoted to the general (sound familiar?)

Besides, she got crushed in a state she won by 40+ points last time, so it seems quite safe to disregard it.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #13 on: May 30, 2016, 11:54:51 am »

Hey, Hillary won South Dakota in 2008:

Img


It could happen again.  It's a semi-closed primary and I think USD (10,000) is the only university.  Native Americans are the largest minority group though, not sure how they feel about Clinton but she did poorly in Oklahoma.

I'd really like to see Hillary win Montana.  Get that nice big gold chunk on the map.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #14 on: May 30, 2016, 12:48:43 pm »

South Dakota went for Hillary in 2008 by 10 points. Let's not disregard that.

She likely only won it because she campaigned there while Obama ignored it and pivoted to the general (sound familiar?)

Besides, she got crushed in a state she won by 40+ points last time, so it seems quite safe to disregard it.

If you look at nearby states, there are a lot of similar patterns between 2016 and 2008.  Clinton did much better in Nebraska than in Kansas, and did better in Wyoming than in either state.  Its also important to note that Clinton has improved upon her 2008 margin in every state that borders South Dakota.
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Holmes
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« Reply #15 on: May 30, 2016, 01:11:16 pm »

I'd really like to see Hillary win Montana.  Get that nice big gold chunk on the map.

Are you kidding? The map is ugly enough as it is already. Clinton winning South Dakota alone would put a huge gold blotch right in the middle of the map.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #16 on: May 30, 2016, 01:30:41 pm »

I mean, after the layoffs I don't expect Sanders to have much of a campaign there either beyond those lovely and oh-so-effective TV ads that Devine, Mulvaney, Longabaugh make.
Sanders was on that air only briefly last month, and hasn't been back on since.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #17 on: May 30, 2016, 02:19:42 pm »

"Targeted Persuasion" sound like it might be a push poll.
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cinyc
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« Reply #18 on: May 30, 2016, 03:52:28 pm »

I mean, after the layoffs I don't expect Sanders to have much of a campaign there either beyond those lovely and oh-so-effective TV ads that Devine, Mulvaney, Longabaugh make.
Sanders was on that air only briefly last month, and hasn't been back on since.

Both Sanders and Clinton are on air in California.  I don't think anyone is on-air in South Dakota.  I'm not sure why - it is very, very cheap.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #19 on: May 30, 2016, 05:23:46 pm »

South Dakota went for Hillary in 2008 by 10 points. Let's not disregard that.

She likely only won it because she campaigned there while Obama ignored it and pivoted to the general (sound familiar?)

Besides, she got crushed in a state she won by 40+ points last time, so it seems quite safe to disregard it.

West Virginia and Kentucky do not equal South Dakota. Totally different states with totally different economic situations.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #20 on: May 30, 2016, 05:29:42 pm »

South Dakota went for Hillary in 2008 by 10 points. Let's not disregard that.

She likely only won it because she campaigned there while Obama ignored it and pivoted to the general (sound familiar?)

Besides, she got crushed in a state she won by 40+ points last time, so it seems quite safe to disregard it.

West Virginia and Kentucky do not equal South Dakota. Totally different states with totally different economic situations.

That's true, but I think IceSpear's point was that Hillary only won SD in '08 because she actively campaigned there, while Obama mostly ignored the state. This time, it will probably be the other way around: Sanders will likely be visiting the state quite a bit, while Clinton will probably ignore it.

Also, something which merits mention, since someone brought up New Mexico: Even though Hillary did very well among Latinos in 2008 as well, she just barely won New Mexico (by about 1.1%.) Then again, she did much better in AZ this time around, so the same could be true for NM.
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Landslide Lyndon
px75
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« Reply #21 on: May 30, 2016, 06:07:57 pm »

South Dakota went for Hillary in 2008 by 10 points. Let's not disregard that.

She likely only won it because she campaigned there while Obama ignored it and pivoted to the general (sound familiar?)

Besides, she got crushed in a state she won by 40+ points last time, so it seems quite safe to disregard it.

West Virginia and Kentucky do not equal South Dakota. Totally different states with totally different economic situations.

That's true, but I think IceSpear's point was that Hillary only won SD in '08 because she actively campaigned there, while Obama mostly ignored the state. This time, it will probably be the other way around: Sanders will likely be visiting the state quite a bit, while Clinton will probably ignore it.

Also, something which merits mention, since someone brought up New Mexico: Even though Hillary did very well among Latinos in 2008 as well, she just barely won New Mexico (by about 1.1%.) Then again, she did much better in AZ this time around, so the same could be true for NM.

Sanders has visited the state only once IIRC and both he and Clinton will likely spend the entire next week in California.
Maybe it would be better for her to send Bill and other surrogates instead.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #22 on: May 30, 2016, 06:16:56 pm »

Hillary winning here in 2008 was definitely more of her putting effort into doing so, rather than than the state simply being anti-Obama like WV and KY. 

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #23 on: May 30, 2016, 06:30:44 pm »

Hillary winning here in 2008 was definitely more of her putting effort into doing so, rather than than the state simply being anti-Obama like WV and KY. 



Obama also had the entire SD Democratic establishment supporting him (Daschle, Johnson, Herseth), so her win was a considerable embarrassment for them.
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Alcon
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« Reply #24 on: May 30, 2016, 09:55:39 pm »

"Targeted Persuasion" sound like it might be a push poll.

It's the name of the company, and I imagine they do robocalling/phonebanking services, and do polling as a sideline.  Not inherently suspicious to me.
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