Gubernatorial Ratings and Predictions - Indiana

[Xing]

Toss-Up, Holcomb wins 48-47. I realize that we have virtually no recent polling for this race, so that makes it hard to predict. For now, just do your best, and know that if (hopefully when) we get more polls, you can always come back and change your prediction.

Current Balance of Power:
Republicans: 27
Democrats: 11
Independents: 1

Ratings:

Safe D: Delaware (Jack Markell)
Likely D: -
Lean D: -
Toss-Up: -
Lean R: -
Likely R: -
Safe R: -

Predictions:

Past winners:

John Carney (D-DE)

Previous Threads: (You can still vote in these!)
Delaware

[Maxwell]

Toss-up, and voting with my heart, John Gregg.

[JMT]

Toss-Up, Holcomb wins 48-47.

This.

[windjammer]

This race just shows how incompetent republicans are. They literally were able to choose their nominee and they chose the one who never won a political office before.

Toss up, Holcomb wins for the moment.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Toss-up, and voting with my heart, John Gregg.

[Figueira]

I think Gregg narrowly wins, but it could go either way.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Toss-Up, Holcomb wins 48-47.

This.

[Bismarck]

Tossup but I think Holcomb will win narrowly. The two have drawn few distinctions so far, most press coverage I've seen is complimenting the two men for being sensible and respectful in contrast to the presidential race. Since they are both similar, Hoosiers have no reason to not vote GOP.

[ElectionsGuy]

Toss-Up but Holcomb wins 49-47 or something really close.

[KingSweden]

John Gregg's magical mustache would win in a just world... but I'll say Holcomb narrowly

[Heisenberg]

Toss-Up, Holcomb wins 48-47.

[Xing]

Bumping since we finally have a new poll. I'm going to flip my prediction to Gregg winning 48-47, but this really could go either way.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Toss-Up
John Gregg 50-47-3

[Fitzgerald]

Tossup. Going to go with 118's prediction of 50-47-3 in favor of Gregg, with Trump ultimately dragging Holcomb to the depths.

[President Johnson]

Toss up. Gregg wins 49-48%.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Toss-up, but Holcomb wins by a narrow margin.

[Xing]

Thought I'd bump this, since we got a new poll. Not changing my prediction much, I still think it's a toss-up (the Monmouth poll definitely seemed quite friendly to Gregg), but now I'll say Gregg wins 50-47.

[Gass3268]

Changing to Lean D

[Breton Racer]

Gregg 50%-45%

[Bismarck]

One thing that might save Holcomb is the Indy suburbs. If you take the Indy area, Marion County, and all the counties that border it (Boone, Hamilton, Hendricks, Johnson, Morgan, Hancock, and Shelby) in 2012 Pence got about a 30000 vote margin. Generally in races where the republican gets enough votes in the suburbs to outvote the city they win statewide. The reverse is true for democrats (Obama 08, Donnelly 12). I see no reason to believe Holcomb would do worse than Pence in the Indy suburbs. Pence was known as a hardcore social con before he was governor.

[Xing]

Considering that we have a few more polls, I'm moving this to Lean D, Gregg 51-46.

[heatcharger]

Considering that we have a few more polls, I'm moving this to Lean D, Gregg 51-46.

Sounds right, even though this race doesn't make any sense.

[BuckeyeNut]

I feel like this is almost to Favored (D), now.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Sounds right, even though this race doesn't make any sense.

Gregg is an experienced, moderate, personable Democrat running against a Republican with low name recognition who has never before won elected office, in a state that is far more elastic than people give it credit for, and at a time when the incumbent Republican governor is a highly controversial figure. This election makes perfect sense in the context of how Indiana has voted over the last thirty years.

[libertpaulian]

And considering the GOP will retain control of the legislature, not much will change.  Constitutionally, it takes a simple majority to override a governor's veto.