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| |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | |-+  VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
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Author Topic: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)  (Read 1888 times)
RFayette
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« Reply #25 on: November 02, 2016, 03:29:38 pm »
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Ayy
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #26 on: November 02, 2016, 03:30:44 pm »
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Why say JUNK?

Looks obvious really, a large chunk of Clinton supporters refused to answer, hence a crashing drop.

As for what it means on election day, I'd hazard a guess that they still vote for her (or have already voted for her but don't want to say)
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JJC
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« Reply #27 on: November 02, 2016, 03:49:26 pm »
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VA has become a really fickle state in recent years. Clinton will probably win it, but it will be closer than most expect.

Clinton obviously is the heavy favorite here, but keep in mind that what's been making VA blue the past 8 years is high black turnout (and to a lesser extent, an increase in government workers near D.C.)

Clinton's big problem this cycle is that black turnout has been way down since 2012. Minorities may hate Trump, but they are not excited for Hillary either. She just can't turn them out the way Obama did.

I've been noticing lower black turnout and higher white turnout in key swing states during early voting (which I don't think many polls are taking into account) and have been searching for info on VA EV numbers ever since. But after scouring the internet, I've come up short.

VA has been on my dark horse list (along with MI) for a while now. If it is in play (big IF), then this opens up a whole can of worms for Clinton. Right now Trump's path to victory is 4 Aces - IA, OH, FL, and a blue leaning state or a NV+NH combo. I think he has three of the four. But the last one will be the toughest.

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LiberalPA
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« Reply #28 on: November 02, 2016, 03:54:33 pm »
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Stop putting 538 ratings in the title.
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #29 on: November 02, 2016, 04:08:09 pm »
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VA has become a really fickle state in recent years. Clinton will probably win it, but it will be closer than most expect.

Clinton obviously is the heavy favorite here, but keep in mind that what's been making VA blue the past 8 years is high black turnout (and to a lesser extent, an increase in government workers near D.C.)

Clinton's big problem this cycle is that black turnout has been way down since 2012. Minorities may hate Trump, but they are not excited for Hillary either. She just can't turn them out the way Obama did.

I've been noticing lower black turnout and higher white turnout in key swing states during early voting (which I don't think many polls are taking into account) and have been searching for info on VA EV numbers ever since. But after scouring the internet, I've come up short.

VA has been on my dark horse list (along with MI) for a while now. If it is in play (big IF), then this opens up a whole can of worms for Clinton. Right now Trump's path to victory is 4 Aces - IA, OH, FL, and a blue leaning state or a NV+NH combo. I think he has three of the four. But the last one will be the toughest.



evidence over the country as a whole is that black people are actually early voting at higher numbers in 2016 compared to 2012. There is just a surge in white and hispanic early voting that means the % of Black early voters is down, but therefore by contrast the election day % will be up.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #30 on: November 02, 2016, 04:24:49 pm »
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Stop posing junk.
It's a legitimate poll. A terrible pollster. But a legitimate poll nonetheless. They were just as bad when they had Clinton up by 12 as they are with this result.
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JJC
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« Reply #31 on: November 02, 2016, 04:56:10 pm »
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VA has become a really fickle state in recent years. Clinton will probably win it, but it will be closer than most expect.

Clinton obviously is the heavy favorite here, but keep in mind that what's been making VA blue the past 8 years is high black turnout (and to a lesser extent, an increase in government workers near D.C.)

Clinton's big problem this cycle is that black turnout has been way down since 2012. Minorities may hate Trump, but they are not excited for Hillary either. She just can't turn them out the way Obama did.

I've been noticing lower black turnout and higher white turnout in key swing states during early voting (which I don't think many polls are taking into account) and have been searching for info on VA EV numbers ever since. But after scouring the internet, I've come up short.

VA has been on my dark horse list (along with MI) for a while now. If it is in play (big IF), then this opens up a whole can of worms for Clinton. Right now Trump's path to victory is 4 Aces - IA, OH, FL, and a blue leaning state or a NV+NH combo. I think he has three of the four. But the last one will be the toughest.



evidence over the country as a whole is that black people are actually early voting at higher numbers in 2016 compared to 2012. There is just a surge in white and hispanic early voting that means the % of Black early voters is down, but therefore by contrast the election day % will be up.

That is factually false.

In many states blacks are down 10-15% from their numbers in 2012.
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dspNY
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« Reply #32 on: November 02, 2016, 05:00:13 pm »
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LOL at this poll...get real
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« Reply #33 on: November 02, 2016, 05:17:39 pm »
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LOL at this poll...get real

That what you said about their last poll Roll Eyes

Virginia = just about Safe D

Amazing considering the fact that going into 2008, it was a state no Dem won since LBJ
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« Reply #34 on: November 02, 2016, 05:47:35 pm »
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LOL at this poll...get real

That what you said about their last poll Roll Eyes

Virginia = just about Safe D

Amazing considering the fact that going into 2008, it was a state no Dem won since LBJ
It is an outlier, the other did not look to be one.  Stop trying to get people.  Your pretty bad at it.
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Donnie
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« Reply #35 on: November 02, 2016, 06:59:52 pm »
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Well this is certainly interesting.  Gillespie redux.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #36 on: November 02, 2016, 07:06:52 pm »
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I was gonna say junk poll, but then I saw the 538 rating in the title and still decided it was junk
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« Reply #37 on: November 02, 2016, 07:10:37 pm »
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I was gonna say junk poll, but then I saw the 538 rating in the title and still decided it was junk
538 is usually on the money.
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« Reply #38 on: November 02, 2016, 07:16:27 pm »
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I was gonna say junk poll, but then I saw the 538 rating in the title and still decided it was junk
538 is usually on the money.


Not really. Quinnipiac is an A-, but did terribly during the primaries. Gravis is a B- for god knows why. SurveyUSA has had multiple bad cycles yet maintains its A. Thats just to name a few.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #39 on: November 02, 2016, 07:43:26 pm »
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I would bet my organs and 500,000 dollars that Virginia will not vote for Trump. As somebody who lives in Northern Virginia.
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« Reply #40 on: November 02, 2016, 09:22:50 pm »
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Stop posing junk.
Look how your friends reacted when it showed Clinton+12 Smiley

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247636.0

Disgusting hypocrites, no?

agee. digusting double standard, as red avatars used to.

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EpicHistory
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« Reply #41 on: November 02, 2016, 11:29:24 pm »
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I would bet my organs and 500,000 dollars that Virginia will not vote for Trump. As somebody who lives in Northern Virginia.

Southwest Virginia here. Lots of enthusiasm here for Trump, and the rest of the state only has to increase turnout by 5% to beat NoVA.
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Kempros
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« Reply #42 on: November 03, 2016, 12:35:16 am »
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I would bet my organs and 500,000 dollars that Virginia will not vote for Trump. As somebody who lives in Northern Virginia.

Southwest Virginia here. Lots of enthusiasm here for Trump, and the rest of the state only has to increase turnout by 5% to beat NoVA.
Just don't get cocky (Bad karma), and keep working hard.
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« Reply #43 on: November 03, 2016, 12:38:55 am »
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Well if the Reps want to win the state, they also have got to be sure the rest of dem Reps are on board. It almost went to Roobs during the Primary.
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« Reply #44 on: November 03, 2016, 12:40:43 am »
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I would bet my organs and 500,000 dollars that Virginia will not vote for Trump. As somebody who lives in Northern Virginia.
If it somehow happens, I'll check back with ya.
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« Reply #45 on: November 05, 2016, 01:08:05 am »
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This poll is biased b/c of Trump's great relationship with the blacks.
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« Reply #46 on: November 05, 2016, 01:38:16 am »
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turn out is up big time in northern Virginia...it is highly unlikely that trump can take this state.
http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting
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