November Southern GovernorLean FederalistIn
our recent poll on this election, dfwlibertylover is leading NeverAgain by over 20 points. Even taking into account the absurdly small sample size, there's no denying that's a comfortable lead by dfw. However, with Labor recently surpassing the Federalists in registration in the South, we're not ready to call this anything more than Lean Fed.
November Southern Chamber of DelegatesSafe Right-of-Center majorityWith 4 of the 5 declared candidates being Federalists or ACPers, it seems clear to us that Right-of-Center candidates will take at least 3 seats in the Chamber.
Likely Federalist MajorityWhile it is possible that a write-in candidate wins a seat, we think that the Federalist Party will have 3 seats in the Chamber.
December Fremontian SenatorLikely United AlternativeIncumbent Cris won against Potus with over 70% of the vote--19-7--in August, so it seems unlikely he would be vanquished by a Federalist challenger should he run for another term. Labor and the "Harambe Freedom Party" both have strong contingencies in Fremont, but with Adam Griffin occupying the other Senate seat we have a hard time imagining a candidate toppling Cris.
December Southern SenatorTossupIncumbent JCL won the Special Election narrowly--in a runoff--and Labor has gained in registration since then. With no candidates declared for the race, there's far too much uncertainty for us to call either party the favorite.
December Northern SenatorSafe Labor-Aligned IndependentIncumbent Scott left Labor during his term. but it doesn't seem like they're holding a grudge. Since Scott has been active I doubt he'll lose much of the large left-of-center majority in the North. There's still time for a left-wing challenger to emerge, or the right to gain momentum, but at the moment we think Scott will be re-elected if he runs for another term.