GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Pandaguineapig]

WSB-Landmark poll:

Handel 49%
Ossoff 47%

Wow. I still think this will go down to the wire, though.

It probably all comes down to Republican turnout

[heatcharger]

WSB-Landmark poll:

Handel 49%
Ossoff 47%

Actually worse for Ossoff: 49.1-46.5. Landmark was most accurate pollster in first round, too.

Decimal points are usually irrelevant, and that poll still underestimated Ossoff by 3 points.

[RI]

WSB-Landmark poll:

Handel 49%
Ossoff 47%

Actually worse for Ossoff: 49.1-46.5. Landmark was most accurate pollster in first round, too.

Decimal points are usually irrelevant.

Point is, if you round based on the raw margin, it's a 3 point lead whereas if you round based on what heatcharger posted, it's a 2 point lead.

[The Other Castro]

This tells us what we already knew. The race is close, and it's going to likely end very close.

[Gass3268]

Undecideds skew young.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oh no one polls has Ossoff down well that's it he's done

[Figueira]

Confirms my view that this is a tossup with a slight edge to Handel. The runoff is still far away.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

That poll was taken before that abortion of a health care bill was passed, I would assume.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Get your "Reelect Jon Ossoff in 2018" signs ready, folks.

Arrogance at its finest.

[GeorgiaModerate]

That poll was taken before that abortion of a health care bill was passed, I would assume.

The poll was taken May 3-4, so partly before and partly after passage.

[The Other Castro]

Paul Ryan to campaign with Karen Handel on May 15.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/06/paul-ryan-to-campaign-with-karen-handel-on-may-15/

[Hindsight was 2020]

Paul Ryan to campaign with Karen Handel on May 15.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/06/paul-ryan-to-campaign-with-karen-handel-on-may-15/

Why?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Paul Ryan to campaign with Karen Handel on May 15.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/06/paul-ryan-to-campaign-with-karen-handel-on-may-15/

Why?

I don't get this either.  Ryan's favorability is way underwater (HuffPo's average is 33/47). 

[Beet]

Paul Ryan to campaign with Karen Handel on May 15.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/06/paul-ryan-to-campaign-with-karen-handel-on-may-15/

Why?

I don't get this either.  Ryan's favorability is way underwater (HuffPo's average is 33/47). 

This district is full of Romney/Ryan Republicans.

With a couple polls now, I think we can make a prediction:
Handel 51.5%
Ossoff 48.5%

[DrScholl]

Ryan is a major liability right now and we already know that tons of Romney voters voted Democratic last year, so the old rules don't necessarily apply here. Handel isn't even that well liked, so the presence of Ryan can only make things worse.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ossoff is now engaged: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/06/georgia-6th-ossoff-is-engaged-to-longtime-girlfriend/

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/06/georgia-special-election-spending-record-238054?cmpid=sf GA-6 race now the most expensive race in US House history (I assume this is by individual seat)

[Sorenroy]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/06/georgia-special-election-spending-record-238054?cmpid=sf GA-6 race now the most expensive race in US House history (I assume this is by individual seat)

I cannot describe how frustrating it is to contact these people (Ossoff). I signed up to volenteer two or three days ago and have only gotten donation prompts. I decided to call them today and their phone number just directs you to check their website which then directs you to email them. I really wanted to do some phonebanking today ('cause I'm stuck in the house), but I sent out an email three hours ago and haven't even gotten a "we received your message" response.

For the most expensive race in the US House history, I would expect them to have at least one person working on the phone lines to take questions.

[Adam Griffin]

It's probably safe to say that he already won a number of Republicans in the primary. He can't win the race without some Republican votes.

According to NYT, Ossoff won anywhere from 15-20% of Republicans in April.

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[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Paul Ryan to campaign with Karen Handel on May 15.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/06/paul-ryan-to-campaign-with-karen-handel-on-may-15/

Thanks, Paul!

[Devout Centrist]

Landmark Communications has Handel up 49.1 to Ossoff's 46.5.

If that's true, then Handel is in trouble.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Landmark Communications has Handel up 49.1 to Ossoff's 46.5.

If that's true, then Handel is in trouble.

Uh...what?

Republican Leaning Pollster. But still, being up 2.5% is not bad news......

[MT Treasurer]

Republican Leaning Pollster.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250974.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249194.0

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201912.0
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201571.0

Doesn't strike me as very Republican-leaning.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Well it should be pointed out Landmark Communications polled Ossoff really under

[GeorgiaModerate]

Landmark has been fairly good in Georgia polls over the years.  But it's clear (and has been for some time) that this is a margin-of-error race.