Tokyo prefectural election, July 2 2017

[jaichind]

As of 10am turnout looks like this relative to 2013

                   2013    2017
Early vote     5.8        8.8
10am           5.8        5.7
total           11.6      14.5 (+2.9)

The surge subsided a bit but it is early days.  Of course the districts I am sampling clearly shows a in day turnout increase as of 10am.  It must be other districts that are driving down over turnout.

[jaichind]

As of 6pm turnout looks like this relative to 2013

                   2013    2017
Early vote     5.8        8.8
10am         29.5      32.0
total           35.3      40.8 (+5.5)

2013 turnout was 43.5.  It seems we ware headed for a turnout of around 50%.  LDP will avoid a total meltdown although a significant defeat is still possible.  KP seems to be in good shape with these turnout numbers.

[jaichind]

Looks like the largest increases in turnout are in the 1- and 2- member districts where due to the arrival of TPFA and its attempt to squeeze LDP out completely in these districts is a lot more competitive than in 2013 when everyone knew it was a LDP landslide.

[jaichind]

Rumors of leaked NHK exit polls indicate a significant and surprising LDP setback. 

[jaichind]

NHK live-stream will begin in about 15 min for poll closing and exit polls 20 min for now

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/

[jaichind]

As of 7:30pm turnout looks like this relative to 2013

                   2013    2017
Early vote     5.8        8.8
7;30pm      32.5      35.9
total           38.3      44.7 (+6.4)

2013 turnout was 43.5.  Turnout looks like will be around 51.  Bad for LDP but not catastrophic.   On the other hand turnout not being 55% could be LDP voters not coming out but everyone else is and if that were the case it could be a meltdown for LDP.

[jaichind]

NHK exit polls  (44,000 surveyed)

Major LDP defeat

TPFA  48-50
LDP   13-39

[jaichind]

Other exit polls has 29 and 22-35 respectively.

[jaichind]

If LDP falls below 30 seats then they got hammered on the 2- member districts.  Also if these were the results Abe's standing might be at risk.

[jaichind]

NHK called 39 seats already:  35 for TPFA, 2 for KP, 1 JCP and 1 for TPFA backed Ind.  None for LDP.  This is going to be a long night for LDP.

[jaichind]

More complete NHK exit polls  (44,000 surveyed)

TPFA       48-50
TPFA(Ind)  3-10
KP          21-23
LDP        13-39
JRP          0-1
DP           2-9
SDP         0-1
SNT         1-2
JCP        10-23

[jaichind]

NHK exit polls. Koike approval rating 77/23   Abe 43/57

[jaichind]

Fuji TV exit polls

TPFA　　  49
TPFA Ind　5
KP   　  　23
LDP 　　  29
JCP　 　  16
DP   　 　  3
SNT  　　  1
Other 　   1  

Pro-Koike at 78 seats (TPFA+, KP, SNT)

[jaichind]

TV Tokyo exit polls

TPFA　　　47～50
TPFA (Ind) 5～11
KP  　　　20～23
LDP　　　22～35
DP　    　　1～5
JCP　　　15～20
Others　　0～2

[jaichind]

Looks like I underestimated TPFA and JCP and overestimated LDP

[jaichind]

The single member distirct Chiyoda was called for TPFA right away.  This is very bad news for LDP.  The old machine politics LDP incumbent "was retired" by the LDP to make way for a fresh LDP young women as a new face to try to win back some support.  It seems that it was completely ineffective.  She lost by a mile it seems.

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll.  Of the 40% of non-aligned voters: 40% voted TPFA, 16% for JCP, 13% for LDP, 9% for DP, 7% for KP, and 2% for SNT.

[jaichind]

NTV exit polls  - JRP wins a seat ?

TPFA       46-50
TPFA(Ind)   2
KP          20-23
LDP        20-36
JRP             1
DP           1-12
SNT            2
JCP        10-24
Others        1

[jaichind]

Count is still  TPFA  36   TPFA(Ind)  1   JCP  1  KP  2

[jaichind]

TPFA headquarters where Koike is putting flowers on the names of TPFA candidates whose victories has been called.

[jaichind]

The rumors are that some of the DP and even some of the KP vote has been radicalized by recent events into voting JCP.  That might explain the JCP surge and it also means that the pre-election rumors that KP might not keep all 23 seats might be true.  It also means that TPFA might not be the only beneficiary of anti-LDP tactical voting. We will know more once the vote come in.

[jaichind]

Other media outlets has called races as

TPFA  26  TPFA(Ind) 1  KP  13  JCP 2  LDP 1

[jaichind]

Japanese equities markets will now fall Monday open on political uncertainly risk. 

[jaichind]

Abe's main rival within the LDP 石破(Ishihito) called these results "as a historical defeat"

[jaichind]

NHK now has it at with 43 out of 127 called

TPFA        37
TPFA(Ind)  1
KP             3
LDP           0
DP             0
SNT           0
JCP            2