Most surprising loss

[Globalist Cosmopolitan]

Michigan, easily.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

By far Michigan. It's not even close. Wisconsin actually has conservatives. I had felt PA would be at least close.

Recall that the Marquette poll showed Donald ahead on the day with the Comey news and while that reverted in the final days, it was a foreboding sign of what was to come the following work week in terms of news coverage. Props to Maxwell's gut for believing WI to be in play.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250693.25

[BigSkyBob]

Nevada. The final results showed an opposite skew to the polls than just about every other state.

Clinton outperforming Obama in Illinois given the Trump trend in the upper .
Midwest is anomalous.

[twenty42]

Her wins in NV and NH were bigger surprises than any of these four losses.

[Mr. Smith]

Her wins in NV and NH were bigger surprises than any of these four losses.

This should be in another thread for most surprising win.

[Skye]

Probably Wisconsin, because there were supposed to be a lot of "NeverTrumpers." Yeah, I remember when people actually believed that less than 90% of Republicans would vote for the candidate with an (R) next to his name. The margin in Ohio was kind of surprising, as well.

Pretty much this. Trump's collapse in the WOW counties was supposed to doom him in the state, plus the polls never suggested it was going to be a close race.

Her wins in NV and NH were bigger surprises than any of these four losses.

Her win in NH was about as surprising as Trump's victory in WV.

Let me remind you that this guy treats a 0.4-point victory the same as a 40-point one.

[TML]

Looking back, I think Michigan was probably the most surprising.

Several weeks before the election, FiveThirtyEight published an article with five possible election outcomes - from a Hillary landslide of 413-119-6 to a Trump win of 294-244. In the Trump win scenario, the article stated that he would win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire, but not Michigan.

[morgankingsley]

I would say Wisconsin. Florida is the least shocking, that state changes almost every election

[twenty42]

Looking back, I think Michigan was probably the most surprising.

Several weeks before the election, FiveThirtyEight published an article with five possible election outcomes - from a Hillary landslide of 413-119-6 to a Trump win of 294-244. In the Trump win scenario, the article stated that he would win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire, but not Michigan.

FiveThirtyEight kept incorporating 2012 results into their 2016 predictions, which was part of their miss. They would swing NV and NH into Trump's column every time there was a national bump for him, ignoring the ground he was picking up in PA and MI.

[60+ GOP Seats After 2018 GUARANTEED]

Wisconsin by far. I thought Virginia would go red before Wisconsin.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html

He was down 6.5 in the polls in Wisconsin. And while there weren't that many polls, remember he got DESTROYED by Cruz during the primary. The Wisconsin GOP Establishment/conservative base seemed to hate Trump.

Remember that not only did Trump win the Michigan primary by a yuuuge margin (15 points), but Bernie Sanders also pulled off a yuuuuge upset against Clinton. This shows Clinton had weakness in the state. (Bernie won Wisconsin but that was expected)

Also, GOP candidates led Michigan polls, like Rubio: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_rubio_vs_clinton-3778.html Rubio led one MI poll by 9 points!!!!

Then Trump was dropping Wisconsin rallies while adding Michigan rallies. Clinton was also going to Michigan and sending surrogates there - they clearly saw something going on they didn't see in Wisconsin.

If Trump went to Minnesota instead of Connecticut, Washington, and New Mexico he probably would have won Minnesota.

[ElectionsGuy]

Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were all surprising. Florida I had expected to go for Clinton but wasn't really shocked when it didn't.

[libertpaulian]

Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were all surprising. Florida I had expected to go for Clinton but wasn't really shocked when it didn't.

Well, look who's back.

[jaichind]

Wisconsin was more surprising than michigan, imo.

1) Trump was HATED by the GOP base in WI, but loved in MIchigan by primary voters. That would have implied decreased base turnout in WI and energized base in MI.

2) Wisconsin whites are more educated than MIchigan whites.

I feel the same way.  Going into election day I was sure Trump will carry FL and come very close in PA and MI but I was sure he will lose WI by at least 3 points.

[VPH]

Pennsylvania for me. I really thought that Hillary had stemmed the bleeding to an extent and made up lots of ground in the suburbs. When Erie County came in red I was stunned.

[TDAS04]

Michigan, but all were surprising.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Michigan. I expected either PA or WI to flip but not both.