The Hofoid House of Absurd & Ignorant Posts VII

[Zaybay]

I dont know what your obsession with beating down on rural voters is. Many of these guys have had the biggest swing towards Democrats. Its been the suburbs, the ones who voted for him by plugging their nose, and swung a bit Clinton, that have been the biggest obstacle. The fact that we are competitive in MT, and not in the GA suburbs show this.

Because VA-Gov, AL-Sen, PA-18, AZ-08, and OH-12 never happened apparently. And Comstock, Rothfus, Paulsen, Coffman, and Yoder are clearly in great shape for re-election.

what I said was true, the Ds have had the largest swings in rural areas. Suburbs, on the other hand, have had smaller swings, which is why we are focusing a lot of energy on Clinton won districts in Orange County, than in rural Trump districts like WV-03 or ME-02. Whereas a lot of energy from the national party, and fundraising, has gone to these areas, barely any has gone to rural areas, and we are doing much better. PA-18, a much more rural district, was able to get Lamb over the top, thanks to large turnout from Allegamy and a narrowing in the rurals, than OH-12, a much more suburban area with a smaller PVI. Not to mention the swings seen in rural IL, districts 12 and 13, than the small swings in suburban IL, in districts 06 and 14.

You are also cherrypicking examples. The incumbents you named have been in D districts for a while now. Comstock survived the district going D+10 in 2016, and survived in 2014, 2012 as well. MN-03's Paulsen has survived 2008. NYT's poll literally calls Coffman "Battle Tested". These districts should have flipped long ago, and yet they didnt. Meanwhile, ME-02, MT-AL, KS-02, and other rural districts are suddenly competitive, making large swings. The rurals are just more elastic, and the suburbs have been where we have had to focus everything.

Edit: even in mostly suburban areas, the rurals have swung more.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/special-election-results/arizona/?utm_term=.90ad085578bc
I didnt even know this was the case in AZ-08...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I dont know what your obsession with beating down on rural voters is. Many of these guys have had the biggest swing towards Democrats. Its been the suburbs, the ones who voted for him by plugging their nose, and swung a bit Clinton, that have been the biggest obstacle. The fact that we are competitive in MT, and not in the GA suburbs show this.

Because VA-Gov, AL-Sen, PA-18, AZ-08, and OH-12 never happened apparently. And Comstock, Rothfus, Paulsen, Coffman, and Yoder are clearly in great shape for re-election.

what I said was true, the Ds have had the largest swings in rural areas. Suburbs, on the other hand, have had smaller swings, which is why we are focusing a lot of energy on Clinton won districts in Orange County, than in rural Trump districts like WV-03 or ME-02. Whereas a lot of energy from the national party, and fundraising, has gone to these areas, barely any has gone to rural areas, and we are doing much better. PA-18, a much more rural district, was able to get Lamb over the top, thanks to large turnout from Allegamy and a narrowing in the rurals, than OH-12, a   much more suburban area with a smaller PVI. Not to mention the swings seen in rural IL, districts 12 and 13, ommmmmm
I the small swings in suburban IL, in districts 06 and 14. M

You are also cherrypicking examples. The incumbents you named have been in D
 for a while now. Comstock survived the district going D+10 in 2016, and survived in 2014, 2012 as well. MN-03's Paulsen has survived 2008. NYT's poll literally calls Coffman "Battle Tested". These districts should have flipped long ago, and yet they didnt. Meanwhile, ME-02, MT-AL, KS-02, and other rural districts are suddenly competitive, making large swings. The rurals are just more elastic, and the suburbs have been where we have had to focus everything.

Edit: even in mostly suburban areas, the rurals have swung more.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/special-election-results/arizona/?utm_term=.90ad085578bc
I didnt even know this was the case in AZ-08...

Your right about CO-6 and MN-3 but KS-3 voted for McCain and Romney. Hillary only won by a poin

[Zaybay]

I dont know what your obsession with beating down on rural voters is. Many of these guys have had the biggest swing towards Democrats. Its been the suburbs, the ones who voted for him by plugging their nose, and swung a bit Clinton, that have been the biggest obstacle. The fact that we are competitive in MT, and not in the GA suburbs show this.

Because VA-Gov, AL-Sen, PA-18, AZ-08, and OH-12 never happened apparently. And Comstock, Rothfus, Paulsen, Coffman, and Yoder are clearly in great shape for re-election.

what I said was true, the Ds have had the largest swings in rural areas. Suburbs, on the other hand, have had smaller swings, which is why we are focusing a lot of energy on Clinton won districts in Orange County, than in rural Trump districts like WV-03 or ME-02. Whereas a lot of energy from the national party, and fundraising, has gone to these areas, barely any has gone to rural areas, and we are doing much better. PA-18, a much more rural district, was able to get Lamb over the top, thanks to large turnout from Allegamy and a narrowing in the rurals, than OH-12, a   much more suburban area with a smaller PVI. Not to mention the swings seen in rural IL, districts 12 and 13, ommmmmm
I the small swings in suburban IL, in districts 06 and 14. M

You are also cherrypicking examples. The incumbents you named have been in D
 for a while now. Comstock survived the district going D+10 in 2016, and survived in 2014, 2012 as well. MN-03's Paulsen has survived 2008. NYT's poll literally calls Coffman "Battle Tested". These districts should have flipped long ago, and yet they didnt. Meanwhile, ME-02, MT-AL, KS-02, and other rural districts are suddenly competitive, making large swings. The rurals are just more elastic, and the suburbs have been where we have had to focus everything.

Edit: even in mostly suburban areas, the rurals have swung more.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/special-election-results/arizona/?utm_term=.90ad085578bc
I didnt even know this was the case in AZ-08...

Your right about CO-6 and MN-3 but KS-3 voted for McCain and Romney. Hillary only won by a poin

true, but if Davis wins by the same margin of the poll so far, it would be a +5 swing from 2016, compared with KS-02, where the swing, if its a tie as the poll suggests, would be an +18 point swing.

[Politician]

All completed polls so far:


IA-01: D+14
CO-06: D+11
CA-49: D+10
MN-03: D+9
MN-08: D+1
KS-02: D+1
NM-02: D+1
CA-48: D+<1
KY-06: R+<1
IL-06: R+1
IL-12: R+1
NJ-07: R+1
CA-25: R+2
FL-26: R+3
TX-07: R+3
VA-07: R+4
ME-02: R+5
WI-01: R+6
TX-23: R+7
WV-03: R+8


So far, by my amazing statistical prediction model that exclusively uses NYT/Siena polls, dems have gained 8 house seats.

Dems are doing the worst of any poll in rural "WWC" #populist WV-03 even with Unbeatable Titan Richard Ojeda? How is this possible?!

And Unbeatable Titan Iron Deadbeat Jailbird is doing the third worst?! HOW?! HE'S SO #POPULIST . And he's clearly far more likely to win than Weak Candidate Donna Shalala™!

[IceSpear]

When she stole the nomination from Bernie.

These types of claims are honestly even more delusional and insane than Trump insisting he won the popular vote if not for illegals and voter fraud. The wacky leftists that peddle them don't get called out nearly enough solely because they're on "the right side" or whatever.

[IceSpear]

When she stole the nomination from Bernie.

This isn't the simple truths thread.

Thanks for posting directly in the thread. Congrats on being the mirror image of Trump, if not worse.

[Technocracy Timmy]

When she stole the nomination from Bernie.

This isn't the simple truths thread.

Hillary stole the nomination from Bernie Sanders by getting 3.7 million more people to vote for her over him.

[Santander]

When she stole the nomination from Bernie.

This isn't the simple truths thread.

Hillary stole the nomination from Bernie Sanders by getting 3.7 million more people to vote for her over him.

Same 3+ million illegals that voted for her in the general vs Trump.

[Technocracy Timmy]

KS-04: Thompson kept it relatively close because he cleaned up in Wichita and the suburbs, even winning Sedgwick County. He got crushed in the rural areas.
MT-AL: Quist mostly ran up the score in what passes for urban/suburban areas in Montana like Missoula, Bozeman (Gallatin County), Helena (Lewis and Clark County), and Butte (Silver Bow County.) He still got curbstomped in the rural areas.
VA-Gov: Northam did even better than Clinton in NoVa which hardly anyone expected, while also making massive improvements in the Virginia Beach and Richmond suburbs. He did far worse than even McAuliffe in the rural areas.
AL-Sen: Moore actually did better in the rural areas than he did in 2012. He lost because he got burbstomped in the Birmingham/Mobile/Huntsville cities and their suburbs, along with the Black Belt. Look at the swing in Jefferson, Shelby, and Madison Counties.
PA-18: Lamb won because of the Pittsburbstomping in Allegheny County, he was still soundly rejected in Washington/Greene/Westmoreland Counties.
AZ-08: Dems got a massive swing in a heavily Republican district that consists entirely of Phoenix suburbs.
OH-12: Same story as PA-18 basically, with a slightly different ending. O'Connor dominated in suburban Columbus (Franklin County) and put in an amazing performance for a Democrat in suburban Delaware County. It wasn't quite enough to make up for the thumping he got in the rural areas of the district.

Really the only counter example and the reason the whole "suburbs are fools gold" narrative got started is because of GA-06, which is a pretty obvious outlier at this point.

TOTALLY looks like Republican suburbanites caused Lamb to win.

Also ignoring the fact that in most cases, Democrats did little better than Hillary in the suburbs.

Dems have overperformed Obama 2012 in every single suburb while underperforming him in almost every single rural area. You can jerk off to short term minor shifts but long term the trends are clear.

[Technocracy Timmy]

KS-04: Thompson kept it relatively close because he cleaned up in Wichita and the suburbs, even winning Sedgwick County. He got crushed in the rural areas.
MT-AL: Quist mostly ran up the score in what passes for urban/suburban areas in Montana like Missoula, Bozeman (Gallatin County), Helena (Lewis and Clark County), and Butte (Silver Bow County.) He still got curbstomped in the rural areas.
VA-Gov: Northam did even better than Clinton in NoVa which hardly anyone expected, while also making massive improvements in the Virginia Beach and Richmond suburbs. He did far worse than even McAuliffe in the rural areas.
AL-Sen: Moore actually did better in the rural areas than he did in 2012. He lost because he got burbstomped in the Birmingham/Mobile/Huntsville cities and their suburbs, along with the Black Belt. Look at the swing in Jefferson, Shelby, and Madison Counties.
PA-18: Lamb won because of the Pittsburbstomping in Allegheny County, he was still soundly rejected in Washington/Greene/Westmoreland Counties.
AZ-08: Dems got a massive swing in a heavily Republican district that consists entirely of Phoenix suburbs.
OH-12: Same story as PA-18 basically, with a slightly different ending. O'Connor dominated in suburban Columbus (Franklin County) and put in an amazing performance for a Democrat in suburban Delaware County. It wasn't quite enough to make up for the thumping he got in the rural areas of the district.

Really the only counter example and the reason the whole "suburbs are fools gold" narrative got started is because of GA-06, which is a pretty obvious outlier at this point.

TOTALLY looks like Republican suburbanites caused Lamb to win.

Also ignoring the fact that in most cases, Democrats did little better than Hillary in the suburbs.

Dems have overperformed Obama 2012 in every single suburb while underperforming him in almost every single rural area. You can jerk off to short term minor shifts but long term the trends are clear.

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2018

State legislature races? While you’re at it, how about you post the county coroner map and explain how that means the Bill Clinton south will vote democrat in 2020 while you’re at it lol.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Almost every rural district has swung towards the Democrats from its Clinton 16 numbers.

So areas with few people in them are gonna go from titanium republican to only safe republican? That’s cute.

The suburbs where people live and people can actually elect large numbers of democrats will take the initiative while we wait for those rurals to catch-up in 50 years.

[IceSpear]

KS-04: Thompson kept it relatively close because he cleaned up in Wichita and the suburbs, even winning Sedgwick County. He got crushed in the rural areas.
MT-AL: Quist mostly ran up the score in what passes for urban/suburban areas in Montana like Missoula, Bozeman (Gallatin County), Helena (Lewis and Clark County), and Butte (Silver Bow County.) He still got curbstomped in the rural areas.
VA-Gov: Northam did even better than Clinton in NoVa which hardly anyone expected, while also making massive improvements in the Virginia Beach and Richmond suburbs. He did far worse than even McAuliffe in the rural areas.
AL-Sen: Moore actually did better in the rural areas than he did in 2012. He lost because he got burbstomped in the Birmingham/Mobile/Huntsville cities and their suburbs, along with the Black Belt. Look at the swing in Jefferson, Shelby, and Madison Counties.
PA-18: Lamb won because of the Pittsburbstomping in Allegheny County, he was still soundly rejected in Washington/Greene/Westmoreland Counties.
AZ-08: Dems got a massive swing in a heavily Republican district that consists entirely of Phoenix suburbs.
OH-12: Same story as PA-18 basically, with a slightly different ending. O'Connor dominated in suburban Columbus (Franklin County) and put in an amazing performance for a Democrat in suburban Delaware County. It wasn't quite enough to make up for the thumping he got in the rural areas of the district.

Really the only counter example and the reason the whole "suburbs are fools gold" narrative got started is because of GA-06, which is a pretty obvious outlier at this point.

TOTALLY looks like Republican suburbanites caused Lamb to win.

Also ignoring the fact that in most cases, Democrats did little better than Hillary in the suburbs.

Uh...what point are you even trying to make here? The vast majority of Lamb precincts were in suburban Allegheny County, which was the exact point I made. LOL

[RINO Tom]

Almost every rural district has swung towards the Democrats from its Clinton 16 numbers.

So areas with few people in them are gonna go from titanium republican to only safe republican? That’s cute.

The suburbs where people live and people can actually elect large numbers of democrats will take the initiative while we wait for those rurals to catch-up in 50 years.

It’s not without precedent for Atlas to treat a suburb that went from 75% R to 60% R as a basic guaranteed lock for 2024’s fabuous Democratic nominee, so let’s not be so hard on the guy.

Also, when will political analysts and consultants stop pretending like “suburban” gives us even one tenth of the description about cultural, socioeconomic and political attitudes that “urban” or “rural” does? 

[Xing]

Maybe, just maybe Democrats could strive to do better in both the suburbs and rural areas, and recognize that not every suburb nor rural area is ever going to vote the same way? Sorry, I know, that's lunacy, but I just had to get it off my chest.

[Politician]

The problem for GOP is Krysten Sinema looks like Gabby Giffords without the head wound.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is the kind of thing from the new control-left that scares me along with "hate speech laws" and enforcing "gender pronouns".

[Politician]

This is the kind of thing from the new control-left that scares me along with "hate speech laws" and enforcing "gender pronouns".

This isn't the simple truths thread. Remind me why the left needs to shut down free speech?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is the kind of thing from the new control-left that scares me along with "hate speech laws" and enforcing "gender pronouns".

This isn't the simple truths thread. Remind me why the left needs to shut down free speech?

That isn't happening. Please give examples.

And Facebook is not "the left"

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Really bad news

http://www.oann.com/president-trump-set-for-west-virginia-rally-for-senate-hopeful-patrick-morrisey/

this is really not good. Shifting this thing from tilt D back to tilt R, expecting a narrow edge out for Morrisey again.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Thread title: "That guy disagrees with me politically! I'm going to accuse him of rape!" by Grassr00ts.

[Fuzzy Bear]

That isn't happening. Please give examples.

And Facebook is not "the left"
[/quote]

Emphasis added.

[Sestak]

Since we’re over 2K, new thread.