Ontario 2018 election

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprising that Dhillon didn't endorse Singh. Is he even still with the NDP?

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprising that Dhillon didn't endorse Singh. Is he even still with the NDP?

Correct me if i'm wrong, but outside of about half-a-dozen, dozen Toronto Councillors and maybe a few others from elsewhere (yes yes, TO-centric ) there weren't many municipal endorsements for any of the candidates were there?

No, but that's because most municipal politicians don't want to appear partisan, especially for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Guelph and London North Centre are quite similar, as they are university ridings where the Liberals do well thanks to a divided left, but do have that Red Tory history. Kingston is another good example, as is Waterloo. Of course, we all know what happened the last time Waterloo was an open seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hilarious that the 4th place NDP won more polls in Guelph than the 2nd place Tories. The Tories ran up a lot of 2nd place finishes in the suburbs, but finished in 4th in the city's core. 

[Hatman 🍁]

I have a socon friend who is involved in the OPC and is salty about Brown's flip flop. We were discussing rumours about Brown.

Bold prediction time: Patrick Brown will have a sex scandal during the campaign. It will likely involve interns.

This would not surprise me, based on rumours I heard about his office from when he was an MP. Rumours didn't involve doing anything to anyone, but having "competitions" with interns.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just a rumour of course, told to me by 1 person 10 years ago... It shocked my sensibilities at the time, but one does hear a lot of rumours in this town, and who knows how many of them are true.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Ottawa Centre NDP nomination was today, and it was a very hotly contested race. I guess people have the delusion (we can all hope!) we will win the seat back? I got called / texted constantly about it because the NDP has the wrong address for me for some reason (I have lived in Ottawa South for 3 years now).

Anyway, it was a big surprise; the most left wing candidate won (Joel Harden), who is a Leap Manifesto supporter. He defeated a sitting public school trustee and another candidate endorsed by Ed Broadbent (and a fourth candidate). He won on the third ballot. How often does that happen?

The results were released too (of the first 2 rounds) which is rare for NDP nomination races, but it looks like the amount of time it took to run all three rounds meant that people who had other things to do and weren't hard core activists left and didn't vote in the final round. It would've made the difference.

People are fussing that picking the most left wing candidate will hurt the party's chances in the riding, but I don't think it will matter much; it would be a hard hill to climb for anyone, and maybe someone who can stand out has a better chance of winning the riding. At the end of the day the election will be a referendum on Yasir Naqvi and the provincial government and not about who the NDP candidate is. If enough people want to give Naqvi the boot, it will be the NDP who wins the seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

So many people in Ottawa Centre vote "strategically" to stop the Tories. I worked on the 2011 provincial campaign there, and this was something we kept hearing from people. We spent almost as much money as the Liberals, and killed them in the sign war, but they won by a big result. It was quite depressing. But Naqvi is a very popular MPP, so unseating him will be near impossible. Sure, the Liberals will be focusing on other races, but they don't need to compete as strongly as the NDP to keep the riding.

I have met Tories who vote NDP in Ottawa Centre though, so that is definitely a thing. But I can't see the Tories doing well, the demographics don't fit well for them anymore.

[Hatman 🍁]

Obviously it made no sense to vote strategically for the Liberals, especially coming off the 2011 (it was the 2011 provincial election, not 2007, how soon I forget these things) federal election where the Liberals finished third. People were duped, hook line and sinker.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wait, why is Guelph so oddly Green even compared to other places with universities?

That's where their leader ran.

[Hatman 🍁]

Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.

Though Fedeli underperformed in 2014 (even if a split opposition gave the illusion otherwise), and  Bradley came close to losing in 2011.

Also, I still wouldn't knock ONDP dreams for Ottawa Centre "a delusion"--at least as long as federal memories of Paul Dewar remain fresh.  However, in light of polling numbers and recent OC provincial history, I also wouldn't rule out the PCs leapfrogging ahead of the NDP...

True enough, although Fidelli still did significantly better than Jay Aspin did federally whereas Harper outperformed Hudak in Ontario as a whole in vote percentages, only similar in seats as the splits were much weaker for him than Hudak.  I do think though Jim Bradley is vulnerable as the Liberals have never been as unpopular as they are now, that being said he probably gives the Liberals a bit of a boost.  Without him they would be toast in that riding whereas with him they have a fighting chance.

I think the NDP could win Ottawa Centre, one advantage they will have is they know they cannot win any other Ottawa ridings so volunteers from all Ottawa ridings will likely campaign here whereas for the Liberals they are fighting in multiple ridings and the PCs may not be competitive here but are in other Ottawa area ridings where they will be putting their resources.  Finally there is the strategic voting.  Although this may seem strange, I actually could see some PC voters in Ottawa Centre strategically voting NDP to defeat the OLP in that riding.  In 2006 I saw many Conservatives on the internet in NDP-Liberal battles saying they would vote NDP to get rid of the Liberals so you could have that here. 

The federal riding includes much of what is Nipissing-Temiskaming provincially, which is NDP territory.  Jay Aspen, or the federal Conservatives doing worse there is to be expected.

Nipissing-Timiskaming is mostly Nipissing provincially with only a small portion in Timiskaming-Cochrane which votes NDP.  Nipissing has never gone NDP although in the past 30 years has usually gone Liberal federally and Tory provincially.  This was Mike Harris' old riding.  Also Anthony Rota was a popular Liberal MP and only narrowly lost in the 2011 meltdown.  He blamed the gun registry as a major reason as it was quite unpopular in this riding like much of Northern Ontario. 

In many ways North Bay is the dividing point with the NDP tending to do well north of that, but once you get south of it, it is more Central Ontario thus largely conservative with occasionally the Liberals pulling off upsets but never the NDP.

Provincially the riding has about 75000 people and federally around 90000, so it ads 15 thousand people.  I wouldn't say that is a "small portion".  And provincially the riding ends at North Bay, wheres the federal riding goes up into Temismaking Shores.  And I never said the NDP did well in North Bay, I'm just saying you would expect the Conservatives to have a tougher time in a riding where a large portion (about 15k people) are largely NDP supporters, people the provincial PCs don't have to worry about.

If anyone is wondering why North Bay/Nipissing isn't as NDP friendly as the rest of Northern Ontario, it is due to the fact that North Bay doesn't have any mining; it is a transportation hub and doesn't have much industry.

[Hatman 🍁]

Exactly.  People said they same about Sam Osterhoff and his choice for Niagara West-Glanbrook, but at the end of the day didn't make a difference.  Candidates can make a minor difference but party label plays a much bigger role, particularly in urban ridings.  I find in rural ridings candidate tends to matter a bit more which is why for example Vic Fedelli has no trouble winning in Nipissing despite being a fairly solid Liberal riding federally or why Jim Bradley held on during the Mike Harris era in St. Catherines which is usually a bellwether.

Though Fedeli underperformed in 2014 (even if a split opposition gave the illusion otherwise), and  Bradley came close to losing in 2011.

Also, I still wouldn't knock ONDP dreams for Ottawa Centre "a delusion"--at least as long as federal memories of Paul Dewar remain fresh.  However, in light of polling numbers and recent OC provincial history, I also wouldn't rule out the PCs leapfrogging ahead of the NDP...

True enough, although Fidelli still did significantly better than Jay Aspin did federally whereas Harper outperformed Hudak in Ontario as a whole in vote percentages, only similar in seats as the splits were much weaker for him than Hudak.  I do think though Jim Bradley is vulnerable as the Liberals have never been as unpopular as they are now, that being said he probably gives the Liberals a bit of a boost.  Without him they would be toast in that riding whereas with him they have a fighting chance.

I think the NDP could win Ottawa Centre, one advantage they will have is they know they cannot win any other Ottawa ridings so volunteers from all Ottawa ridings will likely campaign here whereas for the Liberals they are fighting in multiple ridings and the PCs may not be competitive here but are in other Ottawa area ridings where they will be putting their resources.  Finally there is the strategic voting.  Although this may seem strange, I actually could see some PC voters in Ottawa Centre strategically voting NDP to defeat the OLP in that riding.  In 2006 I saw many Conservatives on the internet in NDP-Liberal battles saying they would vote NDP to get rid of the Liberals so you could have that here. 

The federal riding includes much of what is Nipissing-Temiskaming provincially, which is NDP territory.  Jay Aspen, or the federal Conservatives doing worse there is to be expected.

Nipissing-Timiskaming is mostly Nipissing provincially with only a small portion in Timiskaming-Cochrane which votes NDP.  Nipissing has never gone NDP although in the past 30 years has usually gone Liberal federally and Tory provincially.  This was Mike Harris' old riding.  Also Anthony Rota was a popular Liberal MP and only narrowly lost in the 2011 meltdown.  He blamed the gun registry as a major reason as it was quite unpopular in this riding like much of Northern Ontario. 

In many ways North Bay is the dividing point with the NDP tending to do well north of that, but once you get south of it, it is more Central Ontario thus largely conservative with occasionally the Liberals pulling off upsets but never the NDP.

Provincially the riding has about 75000 people and federally around 90000, so it ads 15 thousand people.  I wouldn't say that is a "small portion".  And provincially the riding ends at North Bay, wheres the federal riding goes up into Temismaking Shores.  And I never said the NDP did well in North Bay, I'm just saying you would expect the Conservatives to have a tougher time in a riding where a large portion (about 15k people) are largely NDP supporters, people the provincial PCs don't have to worry about.

If anyone is wondering why North Bay/Nipissing isn't as NDP friendly as the rest of Northern Ontario, it is due to the fact that North Bay doesn't have any mining; it is a transportation hub and doesn't have much industry.

Every time I went to North Bay, I wondered where the people worked. There is no clear industry or major source of employment.

Used to be trains. And there's NORAD. That's what my grandparents (both New Democrats btw!) were employed in. All of their children got the heck out of the city though. 

Oh, and they also have a university, but not a particularly big one.

[Hatman 🍁]

All the NDP have to do is attack the Liberals for their corruption and arrogance. The platforms don't have to be all that different. Progressives aren't going to vote Tory anyway.

[Hatman 🍁]

Campaign Research puts Liberals ahead

35
34
22

I'm somewhere between dubious and confused by this. Most recent polls put the Tories way ahead, but every once in a while a poll like this comes along that says it's an even race. Is there something going on with the sampling or methodology that could explain this discrepancy?

opt-in panel junk poll. Throw it in the garbage.

[Hatman 🍁]

The fallout over the minimum wage hike is playing right into Wynne's hands right now. This might be the hail Mary they need to save their chances in the election.

They could've gone with a more reasonable modest increase in the minimum wage, which would not have rocked the boat, but they went with a very large increase, which has caused backlash from the business community.

Increasing the minimum wage is a very popular position, albeit very polarising. Having the backlash dominate the headlines will surely help the Liberals in their attempt to galvanize the progressive vote.

Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

[Hatman 🍁]

Are there 124 provincial ridings in Ontario or 122?  I know the Timiskaming-Cochrane provincial riding in Northern Ontario doesn't exist federally, but, if there are 124 provincial ridings, what are the other two?

See this thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=256686.0

They added two new ridings in the north.

[Hatman 🍁]

Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income

I'm not an expert, but a quick google search seems to indicate that it varies between $14-$18 across the province (but that is according to one organization's definition).

Having a different minimum wage for each county/district might be an idea worth exploring, but I worry businesses might abuse this for their own gain. (Maybe regional minimum wages might be better). 

[Hatman 🍁]

Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income

I'm not an expert, but a quick google search seems to indicate that it varies between $14-$18 across the province (but that is according to one organization's definition).

Having a different minimum wage for each county/district might be an idea worth exploring, but I worry businesses might abuse this for their own gain. (Maybe regional minimum wages might be better). 

I should rephrase my question:

What do you think a "living wage" should buy? I ask because everyone likes a "living wage" but people have ridiculously variable standards of what said wage should buy. Some are cheap as hell, and others think everyone should be able to own McMansions

Well, I'll leave it up to the experts, myself, but a living wage in my opinion would be based on:

- Rent for an apartment within a 30 minute public transit commute to place of employment (ideally, owning property would be a guaranteed right for everyone, but that's not politically attainable at the moment)
- 3 healthy meals per day, including eating out once a week (let's say that meal should be around $25-$30, max)
- Public transportation fares (I do not believe owning a car to be a right of anyone)
- Utilities: (phone & internet access in addition to electricity, water, etc which is usually covered by rent). I don't believe cable TV is a right either.
- Clothing (does one article of clothing bought per month seem reasonable?)
- Medical costs (one dentist appointment per year, eye doctor visit every 5 years, over the counter drugs, pharmaceuticals, etc, i.e. things covered by health insurance)
- Rainy day savings (maybe $50-$100 / month?)

Some of this may seem out of touch, while some may be seen as a bit generous.

I know I could get by spending just $2000 a month (spending just on myself, excluding my family), which translates to about $12.50/hour, but that would be without spending on insurance and my commute is by bicycle, which is a big cost saver, but based on our infrastructure and climate would not be something I would expect everyone to do.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, from a social democratic standpoint, we definitely want lower income people to 'participate in society'. Their enfranchisement is key to the movement

[Hatman 🍁]

Whether or not their decision is economically sound is another question, and not one I can admit to knowing the answer to. I do think the increase was probably too much, too quickly (I of course support a living wage, but through incremental increases over a few years), and I personally think an NDP government would be more cautious, even if they promise otherwise.

The consensus of economists is that the point at which gains from minimum wages are outstripped by employers cutting hours, automating etc, is above $15/hr in major cities like Toronto, but could be below it in outlying areas. I personally favour boosting incomes more on the government side with refundable tax credits and the like instead of minimum wage hikes.

What's your definition of a living wage?

A full time job at $15/hr is about $30,000/year. How does that translate to Toronto? Ottawa? In Halifax that would get a single person a decent apartment, used car, good food, clothes etc with some room to spare... In Cape Breton you could probably be a homeowner on that income

I'm not an expert, but a quick google search seems to indicate that it varies between $14-$18 across the province (but that is according to one organization's definition).

Having a different minimum wage for each county/district might be an idea worth exploring, but I worry businesses might abuse this for their own gain. (Maybe regional minimum wages might be better). 

I should rephrase my question:

What do you think a "living wage" should buy? I ask because everyone likes a "living wage" but people have ridiculously variable standards of what said wage should buy. Some are cheap as hell, and others think everyone should be able to own McMansions

Well, I'll leave it up to the experts, myself, but a living wage in my opinion would be based on:

- Rent for an apartment within a 30 minute public transit commute to place of employment (ideally, owning property would be a guaranteed right for everyone, but that's not politically attainable at the moment)
- 3 healthy meals per day, including eating out once a week (let's say that meal should be around $25-$30, max)
- Public transportation fares (I do not believe owning a car to be a right of anyone)
- Utilities: (phone & internet access in addition to electricity, water, etc which is usually covered by rent). I don't believe cable TV is a right either.
- Clothing (does one article of clothing bought per month seem reasonable?)
- Medical costs (one dentist appointment per year, eye doctor visit every 5 years, over the counter drugs, pharmaceuticals, etc, i.e. things covered by health insurance)
- Rainy day savings (maybe $50-$100 / month?)

Some of this may seem out of touch, while some may be seen as a bit generous.

I know I could get by spending just $2000 a month (spending just on myself, excluding my family), which translates to about $12.50/hour, but that would be without spending on insurance and my commute is by bicycle, which is a big cost saver, but based on our infrastructure and climate would not be something I would expect everyone to do.

Eye doctor once every 5 years is a no-go if you have glasses. It needs to be more frequent.

See, I knew I would be out of touch somewhere (though, as a recent type 1 diabetic, I'm supposed to start going to the eye doctor regularly, though I was probably 8 the last time I went!) . I don't wear glasses, but a quick google search shows that over 50% of the population has eye issues, so I'm guessing would need to go to the eye doctor annually?

I realize I also forgot to include things like toiletries which are also important and should be included in any calculations.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, with "fast fashion" being a huge problem, maybe the cost should cover one piece of quality (made in Canada?) clothing, which would be the equivalent of a few articles of made in China crap.

[Hatman 🍁]

Gilles Bisson has stated he will be running in the new Timmins ridings for the ONDP.
Guy Bourgouin, who appears to be a Francophone from Kapuskasing, will be seeking the ONDP nomination Mushkegowuk-James Bay.  No other candidates yet, but I really don't think in the case of the North-East anyway, that there will be an Indigenous candidate winning, as was the hope with the creating of the new ridings.

Oh well. Can't complain with the addition of a safe NDP seat

[Hatman 🍁]

You might as well just ignore every Campaign Research poll. There's a reason every one of their polls is an outlier.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some more FAKE NEWS from the failing Toronto Star Sad!

[Hatman 🍁]

that should've been 160 NDP cases, as they called me, but I missed the call!