WV-Zogby: Manchin +7 against Morrisey, +13 against Jenkins, +14 against Mooney

[MT Treasurer]

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Link.

[SamTilden2020]

WV is glued to Manchin. No surprise. NEXT!

In more serious terms, given the High-grade popularity Senator Manchin has (and the unpopularity of the JJ party swap), he has the best chances of the Uber-GOP state US Senators to win reelection,
 compared to the rest up next year(and no Paula Jean can ever change that).

Surprisingly enough, Morissey appears quite strong in this poll. Time will tell if he is on the upward trend in momentum, or this is a poll botch.

Anyway, Manchin has his seat in the bag, at least until 2024. Senator Manchin is far too popular for such a loss.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Manchin sucks but he'll keep his seat away from any republican.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

> Zogby

[BudgieForce]

Who is stupid enough to pay Zogby for polls?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

why are all of the polls now zogby

does zogby services only cost like a $100 or something?

[Heisenberg]

WV is glued to Manchin. No surprise. NEXT!

In more serious terms, given the High-grade popularity Senator Manchin has (and the unpopularity of the JJ party swap), he has the best chances of the Uber-GOP state US Senators to win reelection,
 compared to the rest up next year(and no Paula Jean can ever change that).

Surprisingly enough, Morissey appears quite strong in this poll. Time will tell if he is on the upward trend in momentum, or this is a poll botch.

Anyway, Manchin has his seat in the bag, at least until 2024. Senator Manchin is far too popular for such a loss.

If:
a. He remained pro-life and pro-gun rights, and
b. Polarization wasn't as strong

then I'd agree. But he's still a vote for Chuck Schumer, and has changed on some issues, so the seat is in play. Interesting to see how well Morrisey does compared to Jenkins. Still think Stupid Alex does not actually run, and if he does and somehow wins the primary, he would lose badly.

[Skill and Chance]

I think Manchin will hold on by 5%ish, but he won't be coasting in any event and could still blow it.  In recent elections in ancestral Dem states, almost all of the undecideds in polls have gone to the Republican at the end.

[Blackacre]

WV is glued to Manchin. No surprise. NEXT!

In more serious terms, given the High-grade popularity Senator Manchin has (and the unpopularity of the JJ party swap), he has the best chances of the Uber-GOP state US Senators to win reelection,
 compared to the rest up next year(and no Paula Jean can ever change that).

Surprisingly enough, Morissey appears quite strong in this poll. Time will tell if he is on the upward trend in momentum, or this is a poll botch.

Anyway, Manchin has his seat in the bag, at least until 2024. Senator Manchin is far too popular for such a loss.

If:
a. He remained pro-life and pro-gun rights, and
b. Polarization wasn't as strong

then I'd agree. But he's still a vote for Chuck Schumer, and has changed on some issues, so the seat is in play. Interesting to see how well Morrisey does compared to Jenkins. Still think Stupid Alex does not actually run, and if he does and somehow wins the primary, he would lose badly.

That doesn't matter as much as we think it does. A lot of people will vote for someone of the other party if they think that person is doing a good job or will do a good job. Senators are more than a vote for their party leader, and voters are well aware of this. After all, he was a reliable vote against every hideously unpopular Trumpcare bill, while Capito was not.

[SamTilden2020]

WV is glued to Manchin. No surprise. NEXT!

In more serious terms, given the High-grade popularity Senator Manchin has (and the unpopularity of the JJ party swap), he has the best chances of the Uber-GOP state US Senators to win reelection,
 compared to the rest up next year(and no Paula Jean can ever change that).

Surprisingly enough, Morissey appears quite strong in this poll. Time will tell if he is on the upward trend in momentum, or this is a poll botch.

Anyway, Manchin has his seat in the bag, at least until 2024. Senator Manchin is far too popular for such a loss.

If:
a. He remained pro-life and pro-gun rights, and
b. Polarization wasn't as strong

then I'd agree. But he's still a vote for Chuck Schumer, and has changed on some issues, so the seat is in play. Interesting to see how well Morrisey does compared to Jenkins. Still think Stupid Alex does not actually run, and if he does and somehow wins the primary, he would lose badly.

That doesn't matter as much as we think it does. A lot of people will vote for someone of the other party if they think that person is doing a good job or will do a good job. Senators are more than a vote for their party leader, and voters are well aware of this. After all, he was a reliable vote against every hideously unpopular Trumpcare bill, while Capito was not.

This, and Manchin tends to hold positions and work to the right of, say Richard Blumenthal.

The way I see it, one needs three (and possibly a fourth) primary aspects to have a seat in an area that is in favor of their opposition:
1: Be Bipartisan
2: Have a strong Public Record
3: People need to know your name
4: Opposition needs to be a flop

1: Manchin seems to have a very centrist vote record, notably voting for Mnunchin and Pruitt
2: 6 years as governor and almost 8 years as senator is a strong record, no?
3: See #2, 2 helps with #3
4: John Raese is an ultra formidable candidate, and is in the top tier of republicans nationwide! (Sarcasm)

Given how 4 is going to be a major question, Manchin seems to be doing fine, hence why #4 is optional in my book.

[Pericles]

That generic ballot was very interesting, that Republicans only have a 5-point lead in West Virginia(!). It can't really be proven but if true that would portend a weak 2018 performance nationwide and in West Virginia and Democrats may gain a congressional district in West Virginia(the races in 2014 were close).

[TheLeftwardTide]

Zogby also had Warren beating Trump in Missouri by 46-40.

If we assume that Zogby has high precision but low accuracy, then that means that Manchin is in big trouble. This assumption is a bad one, however.

[SATW]

I am skeptical of this poll. No way Morrissey does better than Jenkins against Manchin.

[RINO Tom]

I am skeptical of this poll. No way Morrissey does better than Jenkins against Manchin.

Why not?

[Heisenberg]

I am skeptical of this poll. No way Morrissey does better than Jenkins against Manchin.

Why not?

Well, Morrisey has already won two statewide races so I can see his name rec being higher in WV-01 and 02, but he is a worse fit, for reasons explained numerous times (such as his past in NJ, history as a lobbyist, and carpetbagging into the Eastern peninsula, which is WAY different from the rest of the state). In a general election, Jenkins can appeal to a lot of ex-D Trump voters, but, they won't be able to support him in the primary, as most remain registered Democrats.

I'd say, Morrisey should be doing about 2 points worse than Jenkins, but 10 points better than "Stupid Alex" Mooney.

[Kamala]

I am skeptical of this poll. No way Morrissey does better than Jenkins against Manchin.

Why not?

Well, Morrisey has already won two statewide races so I can see his name rec being higher in WV-01 and 02, but he is a worse fit, for reasons explained numerous times (such as his past in NJ, history as a lobbyist, and carpetbagging into the Eastern peninsula, which is WAY different from the rest of the state). In a general election, Jenkins can appeal to a lot of ex-D Trump voters, but, they won't be able to support him in the primary, as most remain registered Democrats.

I'd say, Morrisey should be doing about 2 points worse than Jenkins, but 10 points better than "Stupid Alex" Mooney.

It's also possible that Jenkins's base prefers Manchin to Jenkins, sort of in a way voting

Manchin > Jenkins > Generic R > Generic D

[SoLongAtlas]

Manchin is a lock for re-election. He is one of the last "good ol' boy" moderate Dems along with Jon Tester. In a decade or so, the Dems will be filled with SJWs and lack any true relatable moderates or conservadems and states like WV will only elect Dems that are moderate or conservadems.

[IceSpear]

Manchin is a lock for re-election. He is one of the last "good ol' boy" moderate Dems along with Jon Tester. In a decade or so, the Dems will be filled with SJWs and lack any true relatable moderates or conservadems and states like WV will only elect Dems that are moderate or conservadems.

A Zogby poll is how you came to this conclusion? Even legit high quality polls in 2013 and mid 2014 showed Pryor and Landrieu with bigger leads than this poll shows for Manchin.

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[RINO Tom]

Manchin is a lock for re-election. He is one of the last "good ol' boy" moderate Dems along with Jon Tester. In a decade or so, the Dems will be filled with SJWs and lack any true relatable moderates or conservadems and states like WV will only elect Dems that are moderate or conservadems.

A Zogby poll is how you came to this conclusion? Even legit high quality polls in 2013 and mid 2014 showed Pryor and Landrieu with bigger leads than this poll shows for Manchin.

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https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=192295.0

There was obviously a time when you probably thought of WV fondly, being one of the last solidly Democratic Southern states ... wouldn't you prefer it return to that instead of just being able to trash the state?

Anyway, I could honestly see anything happen with this race.  I think Manchin will win a relatively close election, but I wouldn't be shocked if he got the Pryor treatment.

[IceSpear]

Manchin is a lock for re-election. He is one of the last "good ol' boy" moderate Dems along with Jon Tester. In a decade or so, the Dems will be filled with SJWs and lack any true relatable moderates or conservadems and states like WV will only elect Dems that are moderate or conservadems.

A Zogby poll is how you came to this conclusion? Even legit high quality polls in 2013 and mid 2014 showed Pryor and Landrieu with bigger leads than this poll shows for Manchin.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=192295.0

There was obviously a time when you probably thought of WV fondly, being one of the last solidly Democratic Southern states ... wouldn't you prefer it return to that instead of just being able to trash the state?

Anyway, I could honestly see anything happen with this race.  I think Manchin will win a relatively close election, but I wouldn't be shocked if he got the Pryor treatment.

Not at all. WV's peak for me was neutral/tilt negative when I first started tuning into politics in 2007/2008. After observing the state politically for the past decade and also going there in person multiple times, I only began to dislike it more and more. It went from dislike to hate after they nearly voted for a convicted felon prison inmate over Obama just because he was black. That's when they really showed their true racist colors (no pun intended.) And then it was clear that Obama getting re-elected was the last straw for the Racist WV Hicks, and a majority of the state has clearly resolved to never vote for any member of the anti-white group (i.e. Democratic Party) again unless they're a Republican mole like Jim Justice. And then of course, predictably, became the most Republican and pro-Trump state in the country due to the fact that he was the white resentment candidate.

It doesn't matter what I or anyone else does. WV will never return to even being the slightest bit competitive, much less solidly Democratic. If anything it's just going to get more and more Republican as more of the few remaining "my grandpappy would beat me with a coal shovel if I voted Republican!" elderly die off and are replaced by Saira Blairs. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump cracks 70% there in 2020 even if he's getting thumped nationally.

I'm surprised you think there's a high chance he could get Pryored! Tom, you're slowly becoming #woke.

[RINO Tom]

LOL, I said I wouldn't be "shocked."  For one, WV has gotten a lot more CONSERVATIVE (not just Republican) as the "grandpappy" folks you allude to have died; I have never really bought into the idea that Joe Manchin is some "DINO" or "ConservaDem" just because he has an accent, so obviously he is probably a tad nervous.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin is a lock for re-election. He is one of the last "good ol' boy" moderate Dems along with Jon Tester. In a decade or so, the Dems will be filled with SJWs and lack any true relatable moderates or conservadems and states like WV will only elect Dems that are moderate or conservadems.

A Zogby poll is how you came to this conclusion? Even legit high quality polls in 2013 and mid 2014 showed Pryor and Landrieu with bigger leads than this poll shows for Manchin.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=192295.0

It honestly seems like your cheering for the repeal of Ocare, and for the GOP, elitist sock.

[IceSpear]

Manchin is a lock for re-election. He is one of the last "good ol' boy" moderate Dems along with Jon Tester. In a decade or so, the Dems will be filled with SJWs and lack any true relatable moderates or conservadems and states like WV will only elect Dems that are moderate or conservadems.

A Zogby poll is how you came to this conclusion? Even legit high quality polls in 2013 and mid 2014 showed Pryor and Landrieu with bigger leads than this poll shows for Manchin.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=192295.0

It honestly seems like your cheering for the repeal of Ocare, and for the GOP, elitist sock.

Not at all. If Manchin had even a 1% chance of winning re-election I'd support him, but he doesn't. If I lived in WV (I just puked in my mouth a bit at the thought) I'd vote for him in the general. But he's going to lose regardless, so we might as well nominate Paula Jean. Then everyone will accept the race is safe R and not burn millions in a bonfire trying to save Manchin when the writing is already on the wall. McCaskill, Donnelly, Tester, Heitkamp, Rosen, Sinema, etc. etc. could all put the money to far better use.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Manchin is a lock for re-election. He is one of the last "good ol' boy" moderate Dems along with Jon Tester. In a decade or so, the Dems will be filled with SJWs and lack any true relatable moderates or conservadems and states like WV will only elect Dems that are moderate or conservadems.

A Zogby poll is how you came to this conclusion? Even legit high quality polls in 2013 and mid 2014 showed Pryor and Landrieu with bigger leads than this poll shows for Manchin.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=192295.0

It honestly seems like your cheering for the repeal of Ocare, and for the GOP, elitist sock.

Not at all. If Manchin had even a 1% chance of winning re-election I'd support him, but he doesn't. If I lived in WV (god forbid!) I'd vote for him in the general. But he's going to lose regardless, so we might as well nominate Paula Jean. Then everyone will accept the race is safe R and not burn millions in a bonfire trying to save Manchin when the writing is already on the wall.

If Manchin wins re-election, will you quit it with your Racist Hicks Theory?

[IceSpear]

Manchin is a lock for re-election. He is one of the last "good ol' boy" moderate Dems along with Jon Tester. In a decade or so, the Dems will be filled with SJWs and lack any true relatable moderates or conservadems and states like WV will only elect Dems that are moderate or conservadems.

A Zogby poll is how you came to this conclusion? Even legit high quality polls in 2013 and mid 2014 showed Pryor and Landrieu with bigger leads than this poll shows for Manchin.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=192295.0

It honestly seems like your cheering for the repeal of Ocare, and for the GOP, elitist sock.

Not at all. If Manchin had even a 1% chance of winning re-election I'd support him, but he doesn't. If I lived in WV (god forbid!) I'd vote for him in the general. But he's going to lose regardless, so we might as well nominate Paula Jean. Then everyone will accept the race is safe R and not burn millions in a bonfire trying to save Manchin when the writing is already on the wall.

If Manchin wins re-election, will you quit it with your Racist Hicks Theory?

It'll never happen. But fine, I'll humor you.

I wouldn't stop thinking WV is full of racist hicks (this is a fact, not an opinion.) But I would admit I was wrong about a majority of the state not being willing to vote for any member of the anti-white hate group (i.e. Democratic Party.) Although if Manchin won with a plurality it would still be technically accurate.