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  NOVA GREEN's Election Analysis Thread
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #50 on: June 10, 2018, 08:59:51 pm »

There is a lot of subtlety when it comes to looking at the issue of "Culturally Liberal" versus "Socially Liberal" attitudes, without even addressing the "Rural Areas" question....

Let's start with the question of what does it mean to be Culturally Liberal?

If we look at the limited Wikipedia Definition we see the following:

"Cultural liberalism is a liberal view of society that stresses the freedom of individuals from cultural norms and in the words of Thoreau is often expressed as the right to "march to the beat of a different drummer".[1]"

Cultural liberals believe that society should not impose any specific code of behavior and they see themselves as defending the moral rights of nonconformists to express their own identity however they see fit, as long as they do not harm anyone.[dubious – discuss] The culture wars in politics are generally disagreements between cultural liberals and cultural conservatives, as cultural liberals are strongly opposed to censorship or any kind of oversight of spoken or written material.[2] They believe that the structure of one's family and the nature of marriage should be left up to individual decision and they argue that as long as one does no harm no lifestyle is inherently better than any other. Because cultural liberalism expresses the social dimension of liberalism, it is often referred to as "social liberalism", but is not the same as the political ideology known as social liberalism.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_liberalism

This definition is so broad that it would likely include large swathes of rural America since there is inherently a Libertarian component when it comes to fundamental items such as Freedom of Speech and the Individual versus attempts to restrict those existing rights.

Social Liberalism

Under social liberalism, the good of the community is viewed as harmonious with the freedom of the individual.[6] Social liberal policies have been widely adopted in much of the capitalist world, particularly following World War II.[7] Social liberal ideas and parties tend to be considered centrist or centre-left.[8][9][10][11][12] Social liberals see themselves as occupying the middle ground between social democrats and classical liberals.

"The term "social liberalism" is used to differentiate it from classical liberalism, which dominated political and economic thought for a number of years until social liberalism branched off from it around the Great Depression. In American political usage, the term "social liberalism" describes progressive stances on socio-political issues like abortion, same-sex marriage or gun control as opposed to "social conservatism". A social liberal in this sense may hold either "liberal" or "conservative" views on fiscal policy."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_liberalism

Although these definitions are sourced from Wikipedia, rather than any Political Science Journal focusing on Political Philosophy within the context of American Politics, it provides us with a starting foundation to at least address the question properly....

If we move to the definitions of "Rural" at least we have a commonly accepted means to discuss the data based upon US Census Definitions....

if we use the Census Bureau definitions of "rural" as I posted on another thread regarding "rural White Majority Counties won by HRC"....

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=292631.msg6219390#msg6219390

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Now it get's trickier if we use the Census Definition of "rural" areas more narrowly, since this involves precinct level analysis and/or assumptions about the distribution of the "rural" population compared to whatever larger population centers exists within a given county:

According to the current delineation, released in 2012 and based on the 2010 decennial census, rural areas comprise open country and settlements with fewer than 2,500 residents.

Whew--- now where do we have at least some data points to examine issues relating to Abortion, LGBTQ Equality, Guns, Freedom of Speech, and Marijuana?Huh

Well, we do have a decent amount of data from Oregon since ALL of these issues, (Plus many more) have popped up on the ballot as part of Oregon's direct democracy Citizen Initiative process (Although many of these were sponsored by the Oregon Citizen's Alliance from the late '80s to the Mid '00s....

Let's start with Freedom of Speech:

1996: Oregon GE Ballot Measure #31: Removes State Protections for Obscenity

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So here we see even traditionally heavily Republican parts of Eastern and Southern Oregon reject the attempt to modify the Oregon State Constitution that would have made it much easier to "Ban Smut"....

What's really interesting about this map is that it was rejected by decent margins in Eastern and Southern Oregon, but still passed in most Counties within the Mid-Willamette Valley....

It's also notable that among several of the Counties on the Oregon Coast with the highest proportion of Seniors (Curry, Lincoln, and Tillamook) the race was much closer regardless of the variance in partisan affiliation....

The Counties with the largest support for the "Smut Ban" were the suburban Portland Counties of Washington and Clackamas, and even in the more heavily Mormon and "Cowboy Country" areas of SE and NE Oregon, this measure was rejected everywhere except for Malheur County....

2000 GE: Remove Protections for Adult Businesses from Oregon Constitution

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This was basically an attempt to shut down strip clubs, adult bookstores, and even potentially LGBTQ businesses under the guise of giving power to individual units of Government (In places like Portland there are neighborhood associations that essentially control many zoning related decisions)...

Although this initiative was a bit closer in many parts of rural Oregon than the attempt to "Ban Smut" (Much of Eastern and Southern Oregon doesn't really have much in the way of Strip Clubs or Adult Bookstores), it still narrowly won in the "Bible Belt" of Oregon in the Mid-Valley although it still performed slightly worse in the Suburbs of Portland...

Coastal Oregon is interesting here in that the '96 "Banning of Smut" was closer than the attempt to ban strip clubs and adult bookstores...

Abortion:

1990 GE: Ban on Abortions with Three Exceptions....

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So here we see how overwhelmingly Pro-Choice Oregon is, even in heavily rural parts of the State....

Key things to note here is that there were only two Counties in Oregon that voted over 40% to "Ban Abortion" (Linn and Malheur)....

The next biggest chunk of Anti-Choice Counties would be in "Bible Belt" of the Mid-Willamette Valley (Marion, Polk, Yamhill) and Douglas and Josephine Counties in Southern Oregon...

One could certainly make a decent argument that being Pro-Choice is Culturally Liberal vs Socially Liberal.

1990 GE: Requires Parental Notification for Minors Receiving Abortions

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So here we see a potential gap between Social and Cultural Liberalism, with many Oregonians in both Rural areas and Cities saying "Yes we are Pro-Choice, BUT Parents should be notified 72 Hours in Advance if their Teenage kids are scheduled to have an Abortion procedure"....

There was essentially a similar measure on the ballot in '06, (Although it required 48 Hour Notification) and most of the Counties in Oregon had essentially minor variances from the '90 results....

Img


What do we see here???

An Uptick of support for Parental Notification in much of Eastern and Central Oregon, with Southern Oregon holding steady, and an increase of support for a more "Socially Liberal" gig in the Counties of the Mid and Upper Coastal Rural parts of the State....

Not even going into the Portland suburbs and MultCo which are really where the major swings happened between '90 and '06 on this question...

GUNS:

Oregon has only really had one direct democracy initiative directly addressing Guns and it was way back in 2000, but still it gives us an idea regarding social/cultural Liberalism when it comes to something as basic such as closing the "Gun Show Loophole"

Img


So this map is pretty fascinating.... as one might expect much of Eastern and Southeastern Oregon voted against closing the "Gun Show Loophole".... Still once we get outside of Ranching Country we see Umatilla County voting 45% YES...

When we move to Southern Oregon we see some interesting results from Josephine County, and Jackson County votes (58-42 YES)...

Rolling up into the Mid-Willamette Valley, we see only Linn County voting against, and overwhelming support in favor in Marion/Polk....

Mid and Northern Coastal Oregon votes heavily in favor, with the exception of Columbia County (Think WWC Deer Hunter Country)

LGBTQ Equality:

1992: Ballot Measure # 9: "Government Must Discourage Homosexuality"

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Again, we see the Libertarian element at play in much of Eastern Oregon, even in some extremely heavily Republican parts of the State....

Looking at Southern Oregon, we see that the Coastal Counties (Coos and Curry) weren't too crazy about that, although it did narrowly pass in Jackson County, and perhaps as expected Josephine and Douglas Counties by large margins....

Again we see the "Grain Belt" of the Columbia River Gorge not being too crazy about all of this....

The "Bible Belt" of the Mid Valley tends to be a bit more split (Marion, Polk, Yamhill), and Linn County once again shames us all....

Columbia County obviously stands out here considering that it voted to the Right of Coos County, both of which have long time been "Ancestral Democratic" Counties, where Columbia just flipped for the first time from a Democratic Candidate in a Presidential Election since the New Deal era....

2000: Ballot Measure # 9: "Prohibits Schools from Promoting Homosexuality"

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The slippery slimy weasels of the Oregon Citizens Alliance try it again, but this time doing their shtick about how they are trying to "protect the kids" from a Homosexual Agenda...

It performed much better at the Ballot Box than their '92 Measure.... Still it should be noted that many "rural" parts of Coastal Oregon rejected this Measure, as well as lackluster support in much of the Columbia River Gorge....

2004: Ballot Measure #36 Constitutional Amendment- "One Man One Woman"

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Although arguably SSM was way ahead of its time in '04, this was yet another attempt by the Religious Right to spark turnout in a Presidential General Election Year in Oregon to spike Evangelical Voter turnout in what some 'Pubs thought might be a "Swing State" at the time....

Only two Counties in Oregon voted against a hypothetical Marriage Equality scenario (Multnomah and Benton)....

Still, looking at Rural Counties in Oregon, numbers from Lincoln, Clatsop, and Hood River, were actually fairly close....

Obviously SSM has seen one of the biggest changes overall when it comes to public support of any social issue, other than perhaps Marijuana Legalization, so we can't view Cultural/Social Liberalism on LGBTQ Equality alone from "Rural Counties" in Oregon from an election in '04....

I could pull up some various County maps from Oregon for Marijuana related policy issues, but had something floating around from the '14 Legalization Ballot Measure in Oregon.

Honestly I don't recall my exact color coding scheme (Although I rarely smoke the stuff myself except for maybe 3-4 times a year on a special occasion), but I'm assuming that Green means GO and RED means NO, YELLOW means NO but only SLOW, etc....

Img


So again, the "Bible Belt" of the Mid-Valley votes Slow but NO, Green Lights from Southern Oregon, except SLOW from Josephine and NO from Douglas (Which is fascinating considering it for a long time has been one of the top 10 outdoor Marijuana Growing Counties in the US, going way back to the days of the decline of the Timber Industry)....

One could certainly make a decent argument that there many rural parts of Oregon that are Culturally Liberal, but not Socially Liberal....

Even there, in many parts of rural Oregon we see strong support for freedom of speech against attempts to overturn Oregon Constitutional Protections against Nude Dancing and Pornography, strong support for Female Reproductive Rights, even in many places including the Rights of Medical Privacy for Teenagers, in favor of closing the "Gun Show Loophole", Legalization of Medical/Recreation Marijuana, AND even although LGBTQ Equality didn't perform especially well at the Ballot Box in Oregon between '88 and '04, it's still pretty clear that there was a significant amount of support even in many Rural areas of Oregon against the attempts to destroy equal protections for the Community....

Cultural Liberalism/ Social Liberalism....

Now to the OP's question, my thought is where it comes to WWC Rural areas swinging against Trump, we would most likely see that in Coastal Oregon, the Columbia River Gorge, as well as perhaps certain parts of Southern Oregon and Central Oregon....

Honestly IDK about Trump in Eastern Oregon and SouthEastern Oregon in 2020, but potentially although these are not places I would consider "Socially Liberal" these might well be places more elastic than many other parts of "Rural Oregon" considering how poorly HRC performed compared to the performance of any other Democratic Presidential Candidate at any time in recent political history....
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« Reply #51 on: June 30, 2018, 05:15:17 pm »

Although I do see Maricopa County, and with it Arizona likely flipping in 2020 with Trump at the top of the Republican ticket, I'm not convinced that this will necessarily be a permanent  phenomenon turning Maricopa County into some type of Democratic stronghold....

There are some structural advantages that both Democrats and Republicans have in respective parts of the County that indicate it will if anything tend to remain more of a "Purple" County over the next few Presidential Election cycles, although if it breaks hard Democrat in 2018 and 2020 there is a good chance that many of those Republican leaning Indies are gone for good...

Here are a few charts and graphs that I came up with last November for Maricopa County...

Where are the votes located at within Maricopa County?

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We see that Phoenix accounts for about 33% of the total votes in '16 (Which was basically unchanged from '12 > '16), and a number of medium sized cities accounting for about 57% of the County Vote, and roughly 10% of the votes coming from Unincorporated, and to a much lesser extent rural areas.

CITY   2016 % of Cty Vote Share
PHOENIX   32.9%
MESA   11.8%
CHANDLER   7.0%
GLENDALE   5.0%
SCOTTSDALE   8.0%
GILBERT   6.9%
TEMPE   4.1%
PEORIA   5.0%
SURPRISE   3.5%
AVONDALE   1.5%
GOODYEAR   2.3%
BUCKEYE   1.7%
Non Top 12   10.3%

How did these places vote in the 2012 and 2016 Presidential Election?

Img


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So several things stand out here...

1.) Phoenix is starting to move in the direction of being a solidly Democratic City, as opposed to being a marginally Democratic City, and accounted for a huge chunk of the '12 > '16 Dem vote gains within Maricopa County from + 27.5k D in '12 to + 75.0k D in '16.

Although the margin swing was lower than in many other communities in Maricopa County, the sheer size of the Phoenix vote share more than made up for those numbers.

Now it should be noted that many of the places within Phoenix that saw the largest '12 > '16 Dem swings were in relatively affluent Anglo and Republican leaning precincts within the City, so despite the '16 "Latino Surge" in some of the more heavily working and middle class neighborhoods within the City, even if we see a comparable surge in 2020, as well as the addition of a number of younger Democratic leaning voters showing up to vote for the first time with the simplicity of a heavily Vote-by-Mail (VbM) electorate, that is clearly not sufficient alone to maintain a +15% D vote margin   
(54-39 D) that we saw in 2016.

2.) Mesa is still a solidly large Republican vote basket accounting for a +40k R 'Pub lead in 2012 and +30k R lead in 2016.

Although Trump performed significantly worse than Romney, it still went almost +17% R, with almost all of the 'Pub drop-off going to 3rd Party candidates. Not that there weren't some Romney > HRC voters here, but one would certainly imagine that 'Pubs would be the net beneficiaries in this City if 3rd Party voting craters in 2020 and beyond.

3.) Chandler appears that it is starting to move heavily in a Democratic direction, and I suspect that trend will continue into 2020 with Trump leading the Republican brand.

Still again, much of the movement here was from upper middle-class voters in a relatively diverse and educated suburb of Phoenix, so will that trend hold in the Post-Trump era or will some of these voters return if the Republican Party sheds some of the extremist rhetoric that alienates these types of voters?

4.) Glendale did not swing nearly as heavily Democratic between '12 and '16, mainly because there was a smaller drop-off of Republican vote percentages compared to Chandler.

Still, Dem's managed to gain votes compared to '12 and we do have an additional data point in the form of the 2018 AZ-CD 08 Special Election, which I posted extensive a detailed analyses of that many of you read on another thread.

The portion of Glendale located within CD '08 was essentially the heavily Republican part of the City and we saw a massive Democratic swing in the '18 Special Election compared to the '16 Presidential Election....

Here's a link to a few posts that I made regarding the election results from CD-'08 that go into quite a bit of precinct results  and demographic details on Glendale, as well as Peoria, Surprise, etc...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=288717.msg6183143#msg6183143

While one needs to be extremely cautious using data from a Special US House Election to extrapolate Presidential voting intentions into 2020, it is hard not to view this election as in many ways a referendum on the Trump Presidency, and when you see a +12.5% '16 Trump part of the City flip heavily Democratic in early '18 and then throw in the already heavily Democratic precincts NOT located within CD-'08 the trends start to look extremely bad for Republicans.

It should also be noted that most of the 20-25% Dem swing '16 PRES to '18 House Special election precincts within Glendale happened in overwhelmingly Anglo Upper-income Educated/Professional precincts.

Will these voters feel differently in November 2020 assessing the Trump Administration, looking at their tax bill, etc Huh

5.) Scottsdale saw the largest Democratic swings in Maricopa between '12 and '16 with a +14.5% Dem swing and a net gain of +5.2% to the Dem vote share (From 60-38 R in '12 to 51-43 R in '16).

Have Dems maxed out their votes in Scottsdale or is there more room to expand?

There were relatively few 3rd Party votes here, compared to most other places in Maricopa County and even if we were to chop the 3rd Party vote by overall city percentages, it's difficult to see 'Pubs really gaining any significant raw vote margins compared to '16.

I haven't pulled the '08 PRES numbers for Maricopa, but it wouldn't surprise me if there were a decent number of Obama '08 > Romney '12 > HRC '16 voters in Scottsdale which tends to skew much older, Anglo, Educated, and Upper-Middle Class retirees contrasted against places like Sun City and Sun City West.

The Anglo retirees in Scottsdale appear to be much swingier and elastic than in some other parts of Maricopa County and we don't have any real election data to see how these voters are responding to the Republicans attempt to destroy the Affordable Care Act, which has become increasingly popular, especially among older voters.

6.) Gilbert is another Republican vote basket similar to Mesa, but even more Republican. There were larger swings here than in Mesa, not to mention a +1.9% increase of the Dem vote percentage between '12 and '16, but yet my gut says similar to Mesa a decrease in 3rd Party voting in 2020 would likely benefit the 'Pub nominee (Trump)....

Still, Gilbert skews more Middle-Aged than Senior, the Household Income remains high, but the Educational attainment level is pretty high for Metro Phoenix (#13 % overall for Bachelor degrees) so it's entirely possible that some of the Obama '08 > Romney '12 > Johnson '16 voters might break Dem in '20 without HRC at the top of Dem ticket and cut into Trump '20 raw vote margins and maybe shave another ~ 5k off the top of ticket race....

Wild Card???

7.) Tempe is a City where there is no place to go but up with Trump running as the 'Pub nominee in '20....

Tempe is the most Democratic City in Maricopa County of the largest 12 Cities voting for Obama '12 (56-41 D) and HRC (58-33 D).

Home Arizona State University (ASU) it's pretty safe to say that a large chunk of 3rd Party voters here would likely vote Democrat for President in 2020 without HRC at the top of ticket rather than a protest vote for Johnson or Stein or Bernie write-in.

It's entirely feasible to see a Dem Pres candidate in 2020 gaining a net +5k D vote margin, even with Trump maintaining 33-35% of the Total Vote.

8.) Peoria has long been a Republican stronghold with relatively minor changes in PRES % numbers between '12 and '16 and an almost +20k R raw vote margin in both elections.

Will the 2020 Pres numbers be closer to '12 and '16 % numbers or closer to the '16 "Sheriff Joe" referendum and the '18 House Special Election, roughly +4-5% R in both races?Huh

As I posted shortly before the AZ CD-08 2018 Special Election: "How Will it Play in Peoria?"

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=288717.msg6145557#msg6145557

Peoria, Arizona is a bellwether city within AZ CD-'08 when it comes to overall voting margins, and I'm becoming increasingly convinced that it is an important place to test the relative elasticity of Republican leaning Indies within Maricopa County at large.

Although a Democratic Pres candidate doesn't need to win or come close to winning Peoria, in order for a Dem to win Maricopa they need to keep 'Pub margins to no more than + 20% R.

9.) Surprise a fast growing exurban City in the far Northwestern corner of CD-08 was the real surprise of the 2018 Special House election.

Although it was the least elastic largest City within Maricopa County (+0.5% D '12 > '16), and the most Republican City in the 2016 Pres Election (59-34 R), we saw some of the largest swings here between '16 GE PRES and '18 SE House....

Fast growing Exurban parts of Maricopa like Surprise and Buckeye are likely to continue to be extremely politically volatile over the next decade, and will likely determine the political trajectory of Maricopa County and indirectly Arizona well into the 2020s....

10.) Non Top 12 Cities in Maricopa County aka everything else accounts for 10% of the County Vote Share....

This includes a wide range of unincorporated areas, smaller communities, and even a few rural areas.

Obviously these places deserve a much more detailed analysis, since alone they accounted for raw +40k R vote margins in '16, +42k R raw vote margins in '12....

These places include the heavily Republican retiree communities of Sun City and Sun City West (See AZ CD '08 results) but also include Native American reservations, heavily Latino precincts of places like El Mirage where HRC wasn't especially popular especially after some of the Obama Anti-Immigration policies that caused him to be labeled the "Deporter in Chief" among many Spanish speaking communities, as well as extremely wealthy Uninc areas throughout Metro Maricopa, and then throw in some overwhelmingly rural precincts....

How do Republicans keep winning Maricopa County Arizona at a Presidential Level?Huh

It's actually really easy...

1.) Let go of the culture war issues such as scapegoating Latinos and Ethnic and Religious Minorities. Not only does this make it much more difficult for the 'Pub brand among Minority voters in Maricopa, it also alienates a ton of educated and Middle-Class Anglo voters as well.

2.) Demonstrate that Republicans can run as a Moderate Center-Right Party of Government as opposed to tying to destroy funding for Government services such as Education, Entitlement Programs, Health Care, and Transportation.

3.) Change the focus from the negativity such as Trump's '16 Pres election campaign designed to appeal to WWCs in Northern States where job losses have continued to accrue as a result of Democratic/Republican Administration Free Trade policies alike over the past 30 years, to a more positive approach.

Arizona is a Sunbelt State and people tend to prefer optimism to pessimism in the Sunshine State....

Democratic and Republican politicians alike run campaign ads about gritty Northern Factory Towns and Cities where all hope is gone because the "Plant closed Down"....

That's not how voters in Maricopa County perceive their State and communities....

Metro Phoenix took a huge hit at the time of the Great Recession, as did Metro Las Vegas....

Not only did homeowners property values collapse, but all new home construction froze, and tons of skilled construction workers left and disappeared for good to retire, seek alternative employment, and in many cases go back to Mexico after 15-20 Years of living and working in the United States....

Now it is "Morning in Arizona" and Trump will need to contest this State hard to avoid losing and try to take something out of the Ronald Reagan playbook "Morning in America" campaign commercial where the official title was "Prouder, Stronger, Better"...

Link to the official Reagan '84 Campaign commercial from the Ronald Reagan Library....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zn9fR_-X9uw



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« Reply #52 on: July 22, 2018, 11:49:52 pm »

Now that we are rolling into Special Election Season in OH US-REP CD-12 let's take a brief look at a few relevant items....

Let's start with the vote share by County within OH CD-12 Precincts....

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So basically the concept of vote share over three election cycles using the topline election (US_PRES '16, OH-GOV '14, US PRES '12) is to be able to adjust data to control for voter turnout differentials as well as population growth rates within a given CD....

Basically, what we see here is that Franklin and Delaware County collectively account for ~ 60% of the Vote Share within the CD, and have essentially been a growing segment of the electorate between '12 and '16....

Licking County has been a consistent ~ 20% of OH CD-12 Vote Share, and obviously will be a major contributor to any CD-12 Special Election Results in August 2018....

The other Four Counties precincts located within CD-12 ('12 > '18 account for the remaing 20% of the Vote Share---- (Marion, Morrow, Muskigum,  and Richland).

Now let's take a peak at the 2012 to 2016 US PRES vote swings by County within CD-12.

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So here we see a dramatic increase in Democratic support within the Franklin County portion of CD-12, as well as to a lesser extent within Delaware County, but also some major swings towards Trump in other Counties within the precincts of CD-12....

Now let's look at the raw Total Vote DEM-REP Margin Changes between 2012 and 2016 for US PRES by County...

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So here we start to see the raw power of massive swings among the heavily Upper-Income Anglo precincts of Franklin County between '12 and '16....

Honestly, I don't think the 'Pubs have yet hit rock bottom within these Franklin County precincts, but my suspicion is that O'Connor will likely outperform HRC, despite the "Trump Tax Cuts that nobody really experiences in the actual deductions on their Paychecks....

DEMS win '16 US-PRES in Franklin County precincts +36k and +22% Swings even excluding 3rd Party Votes....

Delaware County is obviously Ground Zero.... DEMS don't need to necessarily win Delaware County in CD-12 OH SE results, but just keep the PUB Margins as both % and RAW VOTE down to something more like ~ +7-10k R.... a 54-46 R win in Delaware County might be sufficient for a DEM win in CD-12...

Licking County and Muskigum County are a real test of if a LIB DEM can regain Obama '12 voters that defected to Trump....  Obama narrowly won Muskigum precincts with OH CD-12, and in Licking managed to bag a 42-56 R loss to Romney in '12....

I haven't had a chance to run all of these precinct numbers that I have for OH from '04 > '16, but to me it's starting to look like a potential combo scene between the relatively solidly Republican suburbs of South Pittsburgh moving hard Dem (Delaware County maybe less so???), but with a dramatically growing Dem base within the Franklin County portions of OH CD-12, where you really didn't have any comparison within PA-18 other than one township in South Allegheny (Mt Lebanon) that essentially swung dramatically DEM from '12 to '16 similar to the Franklin County precincts of OH CD-12....

What you did have in PA CD-18 were Ancestral DEMs in the SW portion of the County that although Lamb narrowly lost, he was able to replicate Obama '08 numbers in Fayette and Washington Counties....

At this point we have no real evidence whatsoever that Obama '12 (Or Obama '08 DEMs) will come home for a US House election in Licking and Richland Counties....

I'll continue to run the precinct level numbers, but Trump did have major swings in the Rural and Small Town WWC precincts here, which despite the dramatic swings towards HRC in Franklin, and to a lesser extent Delaware, still makes this a jump ball...

I'll run some more stats later, as I have done with PA-18, AZ-08, AL-SEN and mix in more data that overlaps with US CENSUS Stats in greater detail by Municipality and Township within CD-12....





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« Reply #53 on: July 23, 2018, 01:05:29 pm »

Glad to see you around! Hadn't seen you post in awhile (though maybe I've just not been looking in the right threads).
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« Reply #54 on: July 26, 2018, 03:09:52 am »

Franklin County is where the Democratic Candidate for OH CD-12 needs to win big in the Special Election in two weeks, or in the General Election this November, if Democrats are going to flip this US House District....

Let's take a more microscopic level of detailed analysis of the Franklin County precincts that account for roughly 33% of the CD vote in an average General Election.

Let's start with the Vote Share by municipality within Franklin County....

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So here we see that the City of Columbus accounts in general for slightly less than 50% of the CD-12 vote Share within Franklin County, within a Presidential Election Year....

What happened in 2014 when it comes to the distribution of vote-share by place within Franklin Co CD-12 precincts???

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Here is the same data from 2012....

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OK--- to what extent does this really make a huge difference when it comes to the overall vote numbers in CD-12 precincts within Franklin County???

Obviously the only way that Democrats can win this special election in OH CD-12 is to rack up massive numbers within Franklin County, especially within precincts most favorably disposed to voting for a Democratic Candidate for a Federal Election....

In many ways very similar to the Southern Pittsburgh suburbs of South Allegheny County, even the most Democratic Precincts in recent years within Franklin County are relatively new converts to the Democratic Party, and tend to vote heavily Republican in most elections....

Let's take a look at the voter turnout by place 2012 to 2016 within the CD-12 precincts of Franklin County....

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Now let's take a look at how Democratic these various municipalities are when it comes to Federal Elections.... Hint at the Statewide level these are overwhelmingly Republican Precincts in recent years....

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So, although you will likely need to open the image in a new window to drill down to a level of detail, and working the long factory shifts, haven't really had tons of time to work on the visuals, but what really stands out is this:

Franklin County Precincts of CD-12 are NOT traditionally heavily Democratic at most election levels, even in 2016!!!!

What we see here are a handful of elections where Democrats have performed extremely well in various elections....

Even the precincts of Columbus only really voted heavily Democratic for Presidential Elections in '12 and '16, throw in a US SEN race from '12 with Sherrod, and OH-TREAS race from '14, but overall the results don't look particularly impressive, especially for US-House races....

Meanwhile Dublin looks like a Republican stronghold, with the exception of '16 PRES and '12 SEN, Westerville looks swingy but Lean Rep, and even Worthington generally votes 'Pub for most elections!!!!

Ok--- so now let's take a look at MHI by place within CD-12....

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Wow!!! New Albany with an MHI of ~ $185k/yr went from 2012 (34-65 R) +31 R to in 2016            (  48-48* R)   for a +31% D swing....

Ok, not tons of people in these precincts, but still noteworthy...

Dublin clocks in with an MHI of $113.2k/Yr and in 2012 at the PRES level voted (40-59 R) and then in '16 (49-47 D) for a +21% D swing....

Meanwhile within the precincts in Columbus....

In 2016 (63-31 D) vs 2012 (59-39 D) for only a +12% D gain....

Where I'm trying to go here is that really we don't have any real history of even the "Democratic Strongholds" of OH CD-12 voting heavily Democratic, with the exception of the past few Presidential Election cycles plus votes for Sen Brown (D-OH)....

So before Dem avatars start getting too excitable, best not to develop too great a taste for the Hobbit leaf quite yet....

*IF* this election is nationalized in terms of local voting patterns, *AND* Dem Turnout is high, especially within the precincts located within the City of Columbus, and *ALSO* Dem margins in the Special Election within the Franklin County precincts look more like 2016 numbers, we might well have a horse-race....

Personally, my thought is that the OH CD-12 House Race will essentially be nationalized, and many of those Romney > HRC voters that went down-ballot Republican in virtually every election, will likely vote Democratic for the CD-12 Special Election.

Next Stop Delaware or Licking County....


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« Reply #55 on: July 26, 2018, 03:37:26 am »

Glad to see you around! Hadn't seen you post in awhile (though maybe I've just not been looking in the right threads).

Thanks Fmr Pres Griff!!!

Been a mixture of factors, the whole work-life balance scene, going back to some classic old skool PC gaming, and also quite simply that I don't find political partisan primaries particularly interesting when it comes to running more detailed precinct level and social-demographic data unless it's  a US-PRES Primary, or a State or election I've been tracking...

I tend to defer much of the Primary detailed analysis to those on Atlas, such as yourself, that have a much better grasp on the intricate subtleties of Intra-Party political dynamics... Smiley

Besides, it's way too early to even comment on National Polling for many of these elections, since in the most interesting elections, we aren't even going to get a decent idea about how the contests might shape out until after Labor Day!!!!

Been doing a ton of lurking, especially now that most of the crap posters and trolls are basically done posting for whatever reason, and the overall quality of posts on most threads and boards have increased dramatically after all of the craziness on Atlas with the lead-up and aftermath of the '16 PRES election.... Smiley
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« Reply #56 on: July 27, 2018, 05:53:51 pm »

Excellent post as always Nova. So here's my latest question. How do the various counties current share of the district's early vote compare to their share of the early vote at this time prior to the 2014 and 2012 elections? Would those numbers be at least a reasonable indicator of what the final share of each counties vote will be after election day? I ask because signs that Franklin County is outperforming its usual share, and by how much, are going to be every bit as key as O'Connor's margin there, frankly.

Another excellent question, and one that I don't believe we have comprehensive data-sets to be able to address, although some other posters such as Ebsy might have found access to data elsewhere that I have not yet obtained.

*** Off-Topic ***  Although I can't consider myself a true Buckeye, I did live in Ohio for four Years in the early 1990s when I was in College outside of Dayton, and was heavily involved in Labor and Environmental activism at that time, as well as to a lesser extent Civil Rights and the Student Movements, and still have much love and appreciation, and interest for the people of Ohio, as well as election related stuff, so it's a real pleasure to see and interact with so many Atlas Ohio posters, such as yourself on this thread....

Here's why your question(s) are virtually impossible for me to address at this time:

1.) Badger Question: How do the various counties current share of the district's early vote compare to their share of the early vote at this time prior to the 2014 and 2012 elections?

Ohio does not appear to have any type of central archive of Early Voting by Date


There are some States where we can pull up this data for a current election, and even a few that will have this data available for historical elections, but Ohio does not appear to be one of these States.

Hence, trying to assess the EV numbers by date is simply not feasible, unless I'm missing some key links somewhere, or if this data is stashed in some Google Archive somewhere....

2.) Badger Question: Would those numbers be at least a reasonable indicator of what the final share of each counties vote will be after election day?

Although I don't believe we can forecast the total post-election vote-share by County based upon the *current status of EV voting by previous party primary voting TO DATE *, we might well be able to forecast what % of the vote will be absentee vs Same-Day for portions of OH CD-12 within the various Counties....

Even there it start's get slightly problematic within the context of a Special US-House Election, since we can pull '12/'14/'16 numbers for total breakdown by ED/EV (ABS PAPER, ABS IVO, EDAY PAPER, EDAY IVO, & PROV) by County, but shifting patterns of Early Voting can make it difficult to estimate how this will look this August....

For example, within Franklin County portions of CD-12 there was a much rate of ED voting in '14 compared to '12 and '16. (I'll get back to Franklin County shortly).

Once of the challenges that I struggled with, as well as many other analysts struggled with in the AZ CD-08 Special Election was what Total Vote number would look like.... we pulled data from previous elections within the district, but it turned out AZ voters in CD-08 ended up voting much more heavily by Mail than normal, so we needed to adjust our total turnout and total voter models to accommodate, and even on election eve many of us (myself included) were overestimating the Same-Day vote.

Is OH-12 necessarily any different???

3.) Badger Comment #3: I ask because signs that Franklin County is outperforming its usual share, and by how much, are going to be every bit as key as O'Connor's margin there, frankly.

So pretty much all of us on this thread realize that Franklin County will be key to any potential Dem upset in a traditionally or "Ancestral Republican" part of Ohio....

As my somewhat detailed breakdown of the Franklin County portion of CD-12 definitively shows, even in the precincts located within the City of Columbus typically do not vote heavily Democratic with a few recent exceptions....

Much of the CD-12 portion of Franklin County tends to be relatively Upper-Income / Upper Middle-Class Anglos, who tend to vote at much higher levels, even in off-year elections.

4.) Here's what I have pulled together regarding breakdown of voting by EV/ED for Franklin County from '12 > '16....

Let's start with the total PRES vote in '16 by Vote Type (ED/EV) for ALL precincts in Franklin County...

The reason for this is that HRC way outperformed the DEM for OH CD-12 even within the Franklin County Precincts part of CD-12, so it gives us a snapshot, since I can't roll the numbers by precinct/place for EV within OH CD-12 being Franklin County and all that....

Img


Now, let's look at the % breakdown by Vote Type for all precincts in Franklin County for US PRES '16 by Party....

Img


Ok--- Check, so what does this tell us???

A.) DEM PRES voters in Franklin County (All) voted absentee at a higher number than Republicans vs ED votes....

BUT, look at the EV-IVO numbers vs the EV-Paper numbers....

DEMS in Franklin in '16 were less likely to mail in their ballots than go to an early in person voting center....

So obviously we see that Early Voting in Franklin County favors Republicans in Mail-in-Ballots and Dems do better with "In-Person" Early Voting.

B.) Now let's take a peak at the 2016 breakdown by Vote Type within the CD-12 portions of Franklin County....

Img


Now let's look at the chart to see the distribution of voter type (EV/ED) for the OH-CD-12 Franklin County votes as a %.

Img


So what does this tell us?

A.) Overall Absentee voting was higher for the Congressional Election in '16 in the CD-12 portions of Franklin County than in other parts of the County.

Roughly 48% of Dem ballots were cast early vs 36% of Pub ballots cast early...

'Pubs actually improved on their ABS-PAPER ballots, but lost ground on their ABS-IVO numbers....

Also, interesting to note for anyone concerned about 3rd Party Ballots in this election in Franklin County, they tend to be much more prone to vote on Election Day (ED) rather than EV.

Now, let's take a look at how Franklin Co CD-12 Voters chose to cast their ballots in 2014 for the US House Race....

Img


Let's take a peak at the % of vote-types by party candidate for CD-12...

Img


Pulling up 2012 for OH-CD 12 Franklin Co....

Img


Let's look at the % of Vote TYPE BY CD-12 and PARTY in 2012....

Img



OK--- anybodies brain hurting yet? Mine is from trying to pull this all together, and we're only talking about Franklin County CD-12 precincts and "Voting Types"...


So to summarize:

1.) We really need to understand the current breakdown of absentee voters within Franklin County by ABS-PAPER vs ABS-IVO, at this current time and to the lead-up to E-Day before basing estimates solely upon ABS (EV) voters to date.

There appears to be a much stronger correlation between support for a Democratic Candidate with ABS-IVO voters than ABS-PAPER voters within Franklin County, and within the CD-12 precincts within Franklin County.

Anyone have these numbers available and is there a way to track this through E-Day?

2.) In "Off-Year" Elections, the total ABS voters % decreases dramatically compared to PRES election years within CD-12.

Many voters in off-year elections simply vote ED or VbM rather than EV'ing in person....

In fact the % of DEM/REP US-House voters was actually pretty close in '14 compared to '12 and '16, mainly because of a dramatic drop-off in DEM ABS-IVOs.

3.) As I have stated before in different ways, we really don't have any decent modelling of what a DEM victory would look like in CD-12 other than some County level benchmarks pundits have thrown out, and also this 60% EV number that keeps floating around Atlas, although I haven't yet seen any type of actual statistical data to support this other than some generalities regarding OH-ALL EV voting patterns in PRES election years....

The limited amount of data we do have thus far appears to indicate that Franklin County is looking pretty decent compared to historical voting patterns within CD-12.

Unfortunately, not being able to break down the '16 PRES numbers by CD-12 within Franklin County for EV/ED voters makes it much more difficult to assess, considering how DEM's traditionally lose House elections by big margins, even in a hypothetical massive swing portion of Franklin County ('12 > '16 PRES swings).

4.) It does appear that something is happening within the Franklin County precincts of CD-12, where we will likely see a massive amount of both Turnout, Raw Votes, and unprecedented DEM margins for a down-ballot election, but will it be enough?Huh










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« Reply #57 on: July 29, 2018, 01:35:43 am »

Before I forget and move on to another County within CD-12, I thought it might be interesting to the run the numbers for US-PRES in the smaller places in Franklin County from 2004 to 2016.

I can't include Columbus, which accounts for roughly 50% of the Franklin County section of CD-12, because of precinct changes and all of that stuff... Sad

Still, we can see how Dublin, Gahanna, Westerville, and Worthington voted from '04 > '16 at the Presidential Level....

Collectively these Cities account for roughly 40% of the CD-12 Franklin County Vote Share, and tend to be a bit more Republican even than the somewhat swingy with 'Pub lean portion of Columbus, Ohio located within the district.

Img


Img


1.) Dublin--- 2nd largest City in Franklin County (Pop 42k, 78% Anglo, 15% Asian, MHI $113.2k/Yr, 78% Degree > High School, heavily White-Collar Professional Occupations)

2.) Gahanna- (Pop 33.6k), 83% Anglo, 11% African-American, MHI $71.2k/Yr, 54% Degree > High School, Occupational sectors skew more Middle-Class

3.) Westerville- Pop 36.8k (3rd largest City in Franklin County), 85% Anglo, 8% African-American, 60% degree > High School Diploma, MHI $82.1k/Yr, Occupational Sectors mix of Upper Middle-Class and Middle-Class

4.) Worthington- Pop 13.5k, MHI $ 86.9k/Yr, 92% Anglo, 72% > HS Diploma Occupations skew a bit Upper Middle-Class....

Looks like maybe it might have some overlap with Professors and Administrators working at Ohio State University?Huh

Regardless, this little chart shows how rapidly how the suburbs of North Franklin County are shifting away from the Republican Party at the Presidential Level....

We have yet to see them shift hard DEM for other down-ballot races, but if O'Conner pulls this out, it will likely be within these communities.



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« Reply #58 on: July 29, 2018, 01:36:37 am »

Ok--- Time to do an initial survey of Delaware County to see what the Tea Leaves might indicate for this upcoming Special Election....

Let's start with US Presidential Election results by place 2004 to 2016.

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Now, let's take a look at this same data in a graphical format.

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Time to look at a summarized chart of the Vote Share by Place '04 > '16

Img



So what is the takeaway from these three data points?

1.) The vast majority of voters within Delaware County do not reside within Cities as their municipal jurisdiction.

Roughly 71% of the voters between '04 and '16 have Townships as their Primary Political Jurisdiction....

Although this might appear as a bit of semantics the reality is that in many parts of the Country this creates an additional level of removal from the "Cities" when it comes to everything from Taxation, Zoning, Policies and regulations that cover everything from waste disposal to how often you mow your lawn, etc.... almost like living in an HOA, except many of these policies are enforced by the Governmental Jurisdiction, rather than the Home Owners Association.....

2.) Within the Cities of Delaware County we are increasingly seeing movement towards the Democratic Party at the Presidential Level in terms of RAW VOTE margins....

For example the growing sliver of the City of Columbus within Franklin County has been increasingly moving Dem in raw vote Margins, and we are also observing a significant decrease of 'Pub raw vote numbers in Dublin and Westerville.

I'll need to take another look at Delaware City, since the '16 PRES numbers look a bit odd, and just validate that I didn't accidentally include Delaware Township precincts from '16 in with Delaware City Precincts....

It could just be that the Delaware City portion of the County grew in the form of a large new subdivision, which actually would make sense with the increased vote share from '12 > '16.

3.) It's pretty clear just looking at the raw vote numbers that a DEM candidate will need to keep Delaware County RAW VOTE numbers down to something more like a +8-10k R margin, even if the DEMS are banking serious margins in Franklin County.

OK... Let's roll a few % numbers....

Now here we have the % of Vote by Party for US PRES Elections '04 > '16 by Place.

Img


Look carefully at these % numbers, especially the "OTHER" numbers that after all account for ~ 70% of the County Vote.

Delaware City looks even fishier here, and I'll go back and validate that and move the data and charts around if there was a filter error with potential inclusion of Delaware Twsp data....

Still the fundamentals stand... we are continuing to see a significant erosion of Republican support at the US-PRES level even in the most 'Pub portion of the County (Townships).

Let's look at this same data in a graphical format...

Img



I'll post a swing map later by place, but really the key take-away here, is that it is entirely possible that the Democratic Candidate in CD-12 will win big in the "Cities" (30% of the County Vote Share), lose in the Townships, but keep Delaware County Close enough so that Franklin County can erase the Republican vote margins from the other Five Counties within CD-12.

Next Stop, I'll take a more detailed look at the Townships of Delaware County, since this appears to be potentially Ground Zero of overall Delaware County margins in the Special Election.
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« Reply #59 on: July 29, 2018, 01:37:34 am »

I have been slightly remiss in my responsibilities when it comes to covering the Cities of Delaware County....

Although previously we touched on the Columbus, OH Dublin, OH, Westerville Franklin County Side, and we have 12% of the Delaware County Vote Share from these same three Cities, we have a few new Cities not yet discussed.

Delaware City---- 17.1% of the 2016 PRES Vote Share in Delaware County.

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MHI- $57.0k/Yr

Educational Attainment- 42.3% > HS Diploma, 50.1% HS Diploma

Race/Ethnicity: 91.3% Anglo-American, 3.2% African-American, 1.9% Latino-American

Occupations:

Img


Politically this City is a bit surprising when looking at the 2016 Presidential Election results....

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Here is a more graphical interface that looks at margins and swings....

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IF anyone can explain what happened in Delaware Ohio (The CITY) and the home of Ohio Wesleyan University between '12 and '16 at the US PRES level, I would be most interested, since this City will be key to any potential Democratic victory in OH CD-12.....

Next stop I'll need to look at the City of Powell, Ohio before I start delving into the Townships, since although I didn't include it on my list of the Cities of Delaware County, it definitely fits the profile of a potential massive swing place even in a Special US-House Election


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« Reply #60 on: July 30, 2018, 09:18:00 pm »

Yet one more important City in Delaware County in the upcoming CD-12 Special Election, which accounts for almost 7.0% of the entire County Vote Share.

Powell, Ohio---- Pop 11.8k, MHI $132.6k/Yr, 78% Degree > HS Diploma (!!!), 86.3% Anglo-American, 10.0% Asian-American.

Img


Relative Occupations skew extremely Upper-Middle Class:

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How did Powell, Ohio vote at the Presidential level from 2004 to 2016, and what trends have we observed over the past 12 Years of Presidential Elections?

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So here we starting to see beginnings of the narrow sliver chance of a DEM upset win in OH CD-12, where even in areas that have been swinging and trending DEM at the PRES level (ESP by Ohio standards), have still tended to overwhelmingly support Republicans at the State and Federal down-ballot levels....

Math goes basically something like this, rack up huge margins within the Franklin County portion of the district especially within the City of Columbus Precincts, continue to expand DEM margins in Dublin, Westerville, Worthington, AND win by comfortable margins within the Cities of Delaware County that account collectively for ~ 35% of the County Vote Share (Columbus, Dublin, Powell, Westerville, and Delaware City)....

Now, there's obviously something missing in the math here, namely the high population Townships within Delaware County (Orange, Liberty, Genoa, and Concord) that account for an additional 42% of the County Vote Share.

Remember, Democrats don't need to WIN Delaware County to win CD-12, just keep 'PUB RAW VOTE margins down enough to allow FRANKLIN County to provide a solid enough buffer to overcome the PUB raw vote numbers from the other heavily TRUMP Counties within the District.
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« Reply #61 on: July 30, 2018, 09:19:18 pm »

Let's now take a look some of the Townships within Delaware County....

1.) Orange Township---- 13.3% of Delaware County Vote Share

Img


Basic US Census Stats as always----

Pop--- 26.9k, MHI $102.1k/Yr, 77.7% Anglo-American, 10.5% Asian-American, 6.4% African-American

Education: 67.0% Degree > HS Diploma

Let's take a look at relative occupations....

Img


OK--- Fits the profile of a place in CD-12 where potentially the Republicans have not yet hit rock bottom, especially at the down-ballot level in the era of Trump.

How has Orange Township voted over the past Four Presidential Elections and are there any swings or trending that might play to a DEM advantage in this Special Election???

Img


So, Orange Township definitely fits of the profile of a '16 PRES > '18 OH-CD-12 flip community, which if it happens would significantly increase the DEM candidates goal of keeping PUB margins low in Delaware County.

2.) Genoa Township---- 14.0% of the 2016 Delaware County Vote Share (!!!)

Img


US CENSUS STATS:

Pop: 23.7k, MHI $116.6k/Yr, 89.0% Anglo-American, 4.0% African-American, 3.4% Asian-American
Education: 71.3% Degree > HS Diploma

Relative Occupations:

Img


How did Genoa Township Ohio vote for US PRES '04 to '16???

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So although there was only a +24% DEM PRES swing between '04 and '16 in Genoa Township compared to a +27% DEM PRES swing between '04 and '16 in Orange Township, there are more favorable ethnic/racial demographics in Orange than Genoa, and quite likely Anglo-American voters swung equally hard in both municipalities but with a much lower DEM baseline in Genoa than Orange.

Still, Trump captured slightly less than 55% of the Vote in '16 here, so even assuming it stays PUB in the Special Election, we still see which direction the wind is blowing in the Era of Trump....

OK--- we now have two additional Townships in Delaware County (Liberty and Concord) that collectively account for about 14.9% of the TOTAL DELAWARE COUNTY VOTE-SHARE.

These Townships are even more Republican than Orange and Genoa, and will likely be the places where the 'Pubs will try to maximize their RAW VOTE margins within Delaware County, assuming that this election is maybe somewhere in the order of +2-5% R once all the votes are counted.

Give me a few minutes to grab a Cig, make a few moves on the Chessboard, take a sip of Bourbon, and I'll take a look at those two Townships.... Smiley
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« Reply #62 on: July 30, 2018, 09:20:20 pm »

Time to Move over to Liberty and Concord Townships....

Liberty Township--- 9.2% of Delaware County Vote Share.

Pop--- 26.8k
MHI: $123.8k/Yr
Race/Ethnicity: 88.0% Anglo-American, 7.6% Asian-American, 2.5% African-American
Education: 72.8% Degree > HS Diploma

Relative Occupations:

Img


How did Liberty Township Vote for US PRES 2014 to 2016???

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So here we see the Democratic Candidate starting from a lower base-line number, and although there was a +22.6% Dem PRES swing between '04 and '16, it was still a bit lower than in Orange and Genoa Townships....

Interestingly enough, this doesn't appear explainable simply upon the Social-Demographic comparative numbers that I pulled for the other two Townships.

Still, the relatively close comparative US-PRES swing margins, would appear to indicate that *IF* a DEM US-HOUSE Candidate were to increase margins in Orange and Genoa, that these swings might well be relatively comparable in Liberty Township.

CONCORD TOWNSHIP--- 5.7% of the DELAWARE COUNTY TOTAL VOTE SHARE

POP- 9.5k
MHI- $ 127.8k/Yr
Race/Ethnicity: 86.8% Anglo-American, 6.7% Asian-American, 3.5% African-American
Educational Attainment: 66.4% Degree > HS Diploma

Relative Occupations:

Img


How did Concord Township Vote for US PRES 2004 to 2016???

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Concord Township sort of stands out here, even compared to Liberty Township when looking at the Social-Demographic Data...

It only swung +15.5% D at the US-PRES level between '04 and '16 compared to much larger swings in the other key suburban/exurban Columbus Townships of Delaware County.

Unfortunately I can't explain the reasons, and I'll let some of the more knowledgeable Buckeyes or resident Ohio experts explain since other than Ancestral Republican History, there tons of variation between the Social-Demographics of these Four Townships (Other than Educational Attainment rates a bit lower in Concord Township than those of the other "Big Four" Townships of Delaware County.


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« Reply #63 on: July 30, 2018, 09:21:53 pm »

Now, let's take a look at the overall Delaware County Vote Share in 2016:

Img


I have covered 80% and we have 20% remaining, basically the Rural Townships and Villages for the most part.

Let's look at the 80% that is Metro Columbus with RAW vote numbers....

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The rurals that are only 20% of the total County vote accounted for almost 50% of PUB margins in the '16 PRES election.

Here are the % numbers by Metro Delaware vs Rural...

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So--- anyone who doubts that the DEM REP in CD-12 could hit 50% in the METRO portions of the County, hasn't been paying attention.

I haven't spent too much time playing with the Rural Townships, but there are definitely some Obama '12 > Trump '16 voters floating around, without even going back into the Weeds of the '04 General Election....

Still, swings are more likely to happen in the METRO PARTS of DELAWARE than RURAL, but one can certainly see how DEMs could keep PUB margins low in DELAWARE and steamroll over the remaining counties solely on the back of FRANKLIN County numbers.
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« Reply #64 on: August 05, 2018, 08:24:51 pm »

Now that I've spent tons of time and thread space focusing on two major counties (Franklin and Delaware) that collectively account for 60% of the CD-12 Vote Share between '12 and '16, both of which are overwhelmingly dominated by the City, Suburbs, and Exurbs of Metro Columbus, it's time to pivot over to another County that accounts for ~20% of the Vote Share of CD-12, as part of the "Tale of Two Cities" or in this case "The Tale of Two Ohios"...

Licking County could well play a significant role not only in any potential Democratic upset in this particular CD, but perhaps more significantly as a representative of a fairly Republican County in Ohio, where Obama performed quite well in both 2008 and 2012.

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I could also throw in a chart of what these actual % changes look like in terms of raw vote margins, but suffice to say that in a GE PRES election in 2012 Obama lost Licking by ~ 12k votes versus HRC losing by ~ 24k Votes, so even in a pretty solidly 'Pub County at the PRES level significant changes on the % margins make a HUGE deal, even in relatively low turnout OH-State and US-House elections.

Now let's look at the overall Licking County Votes for US-Senate between '04 and '16...

Img


So right here, we can see that even Prior to Obama's performance as the DEM-PRES candidate in '08 and '12, we see Sherrod Brown almost tied with Mike Dewine in the '06 US-SEN battle.

Even in the 2014 race for OH- State Treasurer, we see the Dem capture 39% of the vote, in an extremely Republican Year within Ohio.

Ok---- let's take a brief look at Licking County Ohio... (I know most of y'all that post on here are seasoned vets, so apologize my running some Demographic numbers for the lurkers both within and outside of Atlas... Wink  )

Licking County--- OHIO

Pop: 167.0k
Race/Ethnicity: 92.2% Anglo-American, 3.3% African-American.
MHI: $55.1k/Yr
Education: 30.0% > HS Diploma, 59.2% HS Diploma
Age: 14% > 65+ Yrs, 21% 50-64 Yrs, 20% 35-49/Yrs, 19% 18-34/Yrs

Educational Attainment Breakdown:

Img


Relative Occupational Breakdown:

Img


So--- anyone starting to see why Licking Counties and others like this in Ohio can be extremely swingy despite an inherent Republican lean?

Overall the County is relatively well educated in terms of post high-school degrees, including the much vaunted Working-Class ideal of getting a practical Vocational/Professional Two Year Degree that translates almost immediately into a decent job, and not being stuck in Mountains of student loan debt.

NOW: Where are the Voters located within the District in terms of comparative Vote-Share?

I'll start with just the largest City within Licking, County....

Newark, OH--- 22.8% of Licking County Vote Share 2016 PRES

Pop: 47.7k (29.0% of County Population)
Race/Ethnicity: 92.0% Anglo-American, 3.3% African-American
MHI: $38.3k/Yr
Education: 23.7% > HS Diploma, 62.5% HS Degree
Age: 14% > 65/Yrs, 12.5% 55-64/Yrs, 26% 35-54/Yrs, 24% 18-34/Yrs...

Newark, OH--- Relative Occupations---

Img


Now, let's take a look a relative industries in Newark, considering that it's a bit odd that overall Demographic mirror the County numbers, with the exception of MHI and Education...

Img


Maybe the Cities largest employers might explain that???

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Ok--- now let's check out a few of the election numbers from Newark, Ohio for a few election races...

Newark, OH--- US PRES 2004 to 2016....

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So here we see an interesting representation of the complexities of OH-PRES election politics in recent decades....

This is a City in Ohio that swung towards Obama between '08 and '12, who received a much larger % of the Dem Vote than Kerry in '04 (I have a full set of OH 2000 precinct numbers floating around somewhere and would be interesting to add them to the mix), AND these Democratic gains were essentially wiped out with an unpopular Democrat running against a less-unpopular Republican around here....

Just dipping my first toe into the waters of Licking County, but if you're going to find "Ancestral Dems" that swung harder Trump, Newark City would certainly be a place where I would be interested in examining after the CD-12 Special Election, and certainly in the 2018 GE to see if the winds are blowing back against the Republicans, and if so to what extent...

I'll try to pull a few more summaries of Licking County before the Weekend to summarize, and hopefully maybe another County before E-Day....

Didn't start pulling the precinct data until a few weeks back, and have a full-time job, family and all that, so haven't been able to get into as much detailed election results as I would normally like to do.









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« Reply #65 on: August 06, 2018, 08:35:36 pm »

Yesterday I posted some data for Licking County as well as the largest City Newark to see what the numbers might indicate regarding the Obama '08 and Obama '12 voters who swung hard to Trump within the County in the upcoming Ohio US House CD-12 might do.

We saw that Obama narrowly lost Newark in '08, narrowly won it in '12, and it swung to Trump by +20% in 2016!

Now let's look at the overall Vote Share by place within Licking County.

Img


What is chart tells us is that there are actually quite a decent percentage of the County population that resides in a relatively small number of Cities, and a few larger higher density townships.

Here's a Licking County Township city/map that has 62% of the County Vote Share bordered with a darker Black border.

Yesterday I posted some data for Licking County as well as the largest City Newark to see what the numbers might indicate regarding the Obama '08 and Obama '12 voters who swung hard to Trump within the County in the upcoming Ohio US House CD-12 might do.



What is chart tells us is that there are actually quite a decent percentage of the County population that resides in a relatively small number of Cities, and a few larger higher density townships.

These are clustered in two areas:

1.) SW-Licking which is fairly exurban Columbus
2.) The City of Newark and surrounding suburbs.

Here's a Licking County City/Township Map that illustrates this, with these two areas illustrated by a darker border...

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Now let's look at the US-PRES 2004 to 2016 breakdown by "City" and "Rural" precincts within the County, and the Total Vote Margin.

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Although we don't really have any recent history of "Ancestral Democratic" major strengths in Licking County, we do see that there are quite a few Obama '08 / Obama '12 / Trump '16 voters in both the "Cities" and "Rural" areas....

In the SW Licking & "Metro Newark" areas Obama was able to keep Republican raw vote margins extremely low in both '08 and '12, only +3.5- 4.6k Republican....

This would obviously the path for O'Connor to try to minimize over Republican margins in Licking County....

I doubt we'll see nearly as much movement in the rural parts of Licking County this coming Tuesday where there are simply a ton of Bush W. / McCain / Romney / Trump voters....

Here's a vote by City/Rural Graph as a % of US PRES by Party 2004 to 2016 to further illustrate the point:

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Licking County RAW VOTE MARGINS matter, and former Kerry/Obama/Obama/Trump voters in the Cities/exurbs of the County might be a decent shake to keep down Balderson numbers in Licking and flip the District in a few days or November...














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« Reply #66 on: August 06, 2018, 08:38:57 pm »

Great post as always, Nova. Let me offer some trivia, being familiar with the county, albeit not a resident.

Granville is the home of Dennison University, and not-coincidentally quite Democratic. It regularly appears as a (non-Atlas) blue splotch on an otherwise largely red election map.

Reynoldsburg in the SW is split. Democrats failed in 2015 in a major push to win the mayoral race and council majority, but it votes Democratic at the presidential and federal level. It's a city where Republicans years are numbered at the local level. However, the city is actually divided between Licking, Fairfield, and Franklin Counties, and the Licking County portion is IIRC at least somewhat more Republican than the City as a whole. I'm tempted to say O'Conner needs to win the district's portion of Reynoldsburg, or at least come real close, to win the race.

Between annexation and suburban growth, Pataskala has become the second largest city in the county after Newark. It's still reliably Republican, though not quite as overwhelmingly as before.

If O'Connor wins Reynoldsburg and Newark, even narrowly, he should be alright.

Badger--- Thks as always for your insightful analysis, as well as your contributions as one of Atlas resident Subject Matter Experts (SME) when it comes to the great state of Ohio.

Here are the US-PRES '04 to '16 numbers from Reynoldsburg.

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The Licking County portions of the City are moving Democratic at a PRES level faster than a Hound Dog on a Fox Hunt in the Shires of the UK....

Here are the '04 to '16 US PRES numbers from Granville Village....

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Crazy comparing and contrasting '04 vs '16....

Although my PC is overheating, so I'll need to shut-down and restart right now, it's pretty cool for the Dems that they are seeing these types of massive swings among College Educated and Suburban Anglos in Ohio, still even with these types of massive swings in certain parts of Licking County, we have seen even more massive swings between '12 > '16 in areas accounting for a much larger chunk of the Vote Share....

The key to a Democratic Hypothetical Victory in OH CD-12 runs through an extremely narrow pathway that combines both the massive shifts in relatively educated and upper-middle-class Anglo "Metro" voters combined with Obama Democrats in the Cities and smaller communities of "Downstate CD-12), for whom for many Ancestral Republicans he was one of the only Democrats they had ever voted for at a Presidential Level, as well as occasionally voting for DEMs on down-ballot races.

This is one of the tricky dynamics of this race that makes it perhaps a bit more like PA-18 than AZ-08....

Honestly it doesn't completely surprise me, having had the privilege and pleasure of having lived Four Years in the Buckeye State as a Young Man in the Mid '90s, somewhere roughly between Columbus, Dayton, && Cinci.

"Ancestral Democrats" in many of these places will be key--- regardless of 1992/1996 PRES Votes, we can still look at the '00 to '16 Votes....

If Trump shows up at Orange Township in Delware County, and his 'Pub loses the OH CD-12 SE that will be monumental....

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« Reply #67 on: August 06, 2018, 08:41:13 pm »

Great post as always, Nova. Let me offer some trivia, being familiar with the county, albeit not a resident.

Granville is the home of Dennison University, and not-coincidentally quite Democratic. It regularly appears as a (non-Atlas) blue splotch on an otherwise largely red election map.

Reynoldsburg in the SW is split. Democrats failed in 2015 in a major push to win the mayoral race and council majority, but it votes Democratic at the presidential and federal level. It's a city where Republicans years are numbered at the local level. However, the city is actually divided between Licking, Fairfield, and Franklin Counties, and the Licking County portion is IIRC at least somewhat more Republican than the City as a whole. I'm tempted to say O'Conner needs to win the district's portion of Reynoldsburg, or at least come real close, to win the race.

Between annexation and suburban growth, Pataskala has become the second largest city in the county after Newark. It's still reliably Republican, though not quite as overwhelmingly as before.

If O'Connor wins Reynoldsburg and Newark, even narrowly, he should be alright.

Let's take a look at the other Cities / Larger Townships within Licking County:

Granville Township:

Tends to skew a bit younger (College Students?) but still with a fairly high % of residents 35-54 Yrs. MHI = $ 92.8k / YR (Upper Middle-Class). Educated 67% with degree > HS. Occupations- 16% Education (!!!)

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So this is very interesting...  Obama actually did significantly worse here than Kerry or Clinton, and 'Pubs carried it by ~ +10% in '08 and '12 and it was basically virtually tied in '04 and '16.

I don't know what the % of the student vote was in the Township versus Granville City, but still one would imagine that the Township is a place where O'Connor might well break even.

Heath- Ohio--- Pop 10.4k--- 6% of County Vote Share

Skews Middle-Aged and Older. MHI $43.7k/Yr. 91% White. 27.1% Degree > HS, Occupations skew heavily working-class (Material Mvmt, Food Services, Transportation, Repair) as well as "pink collar" (Administrative).

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So again we have a City in the district with a fairly decent proportion of Obama > Trump voters, as well as a decent % of Kerry '04 voters (40%).

The question remains to what extent O'Connor will be able to get close to the 40% Dem Vote here, to keep overall PUB margins low in the Cities of Licking County.

Now, let's look at the larger population centers of SW Licking County (I already previously covered Reynoldsburg precincts within Licking County).

Pataskala- Pop 15.0k- 9.0% of Licking County Vote Share

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So as we can see from the satellite imagery, this City is actually basically the equivalent of an entire township, with a mixture of suburban neighborhoods in the SW corner of the "City", and more clustered population in the Eastern Central part of the "City", with some smaller developments dotted around along some of the main roads, some nice ritzy semi-rural Exurban homes scattered around, and even some farms mixed in around the "City".

Let's look at the age breakdown of Pataskala:

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So interestingly enough we actually see a fairly decent cluster of the population clustered in that 25-54 Year Old range, and perhaps most significantly within the context of this election, a very high concentration in the 25-39 Yr age bracket (23%). These voters will likely be critical in determining the overall margins within the City this coming Tuesday.

MHI- $ 65.6k /Yr with 55% of the Households making > $60k/Yr.

Education: 34.1% > HS Degree

Occupations:

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So interestingly enough the occupations are a bit all over the place--- one the one hand you have a pretty decent White Collar representation in generally high paying occupations (Business and Management), but you also have a decent representation of relatively decent paying Blue Collar Occupations (Transportation & Construction), and also a hefty chunk of "Pink Collar" occupations (Administrative & Social Services).

Enough of this---- how has Pataskala been voting in recent Presidential Elections?

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So, once again we see a pretty decent contingent of Obama '08 / Obama '12 /Trump '16 voters within Pataskala. HRC pretty much destroyed all of the gains that Democrats had made since '04, significantly under-performing John Kerry. On the flip side, although Trump bagged 61% of the Vote in 2016, he still performed worse than George W. Bush in his re-election campaign in 2004.

If O'Connor can revive the Obama '08/'12 coalition in Pataskala of educated Upper-Income voters, and more traditionally working class occupations, he might be able to keep PUB margins down to +12-15% in the Special Election.

As an Exurban Columbus community, one might imagine this would be a place where we could see some major swings compared to the 2016 US PRES results.

Etna Township- Pop 16.3k- 5% of 2016 Vote Share

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Those giant white buildings you see in the Center of the Township is a major Amazon Fulfillment Center, and having worked in an FC before for another company, I know how rigorous Warehouse Work can be with 7x24 Hour Operations running 10-12 Hour shifts frequently the industry norm.

Age: 10% 65+, 10% (55-64), 33% (35-54) (!!!), 19% (18-34), 28% (0-17).

Wow--- look at that concentration in the 0-17 Yrs and 35-54 Yrs!!!!

Race/Ethnicity: 78.6% White, 13.9% Black, 2.9% Latino, 2.3% Mixed, 2.0% Asian

Cool--- finally we get a place in Licking County where the Brothers and Sisters are properly represented! This trend will likely continue, considering that the African-American population is most heavily concentrated in both the younger age bracket (0-17 Yrs), as well as the Millennial and Middle-Aged demographic brackets.

Education: 39.1% with Degree > HS.   Township is a bit more Educated than average.

MHI: $ 75.7k/Yr

Occupations:

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Hmm interesting--- we see an extremely high level of White Collar highly compensated occupations, compared to what I was expecting.

We do have a decent range of Blue Collar occupations in Transportation and Repair, as well as a slightly higher proportion of occupations in Administrative and Sales than the norm.

How did Etna Township Vote in the 2004 to 2016 US-PRES elections?

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So, interestingly enough Etna Township in *Theory* should be significantly more Democratic than Pataskala City, when looking at everything from MHI, Education, Occupations, and Race/Ethnicity.

This is obviously not the case.

To say that Etna Township is solidly Republican would likely be a significant understatement....

Obama only kept the PUBS down to 62% of the Total Presidential Vote in '08/'12. John Kerry only captured 1/3 votes and DJT even exceeded GHWB '04 PUB % in Etna Township.

I don't know why exactly this Township has been so consistently Republican, but it is pretty clear that White voters tend to vote overwhelmingly Republican at all age, income, and occupation levels, compared to most of the larger population centers of Licking County.

O'Connor will be lucky to keep the PUB margins here down to +20% R.

Harrison Township - Pop 7.6k- 6% of Licking County Vote Share.

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Ok--- Looking at the satellite imagery, this Township is an interesting smorgasbord of decent sized Exurban Housing Developments around places like Beechwood Trails, as well as smaller sub-divisions along many of the local roads, throw in a quite a bit of what looks like farming areas (Although as a former OH resident, sometimes these farms are really a part-time gig for local farmers that have other day jobs and just make some extra bucks hiring a few people to run the agricultural tools during key parts of the season).

Age: Pop is extremely young 23% (0-17 Years), Millennials under-represented 14% (18-34 Yrs), 33% (35-54 Yrs),

Race/Ethnicity: 97.6% White

Much more lily White than most of the rest of Licking County, which has a pretty low rate of ethnic/racial diversity compared to many of the other medium-sized Counties within Ohio.

MHI: $ 77.2k/Yr

Not bad at all, and considerably higher than the Statewide Average.

Education: 38.9% > HS Diploma

Occupations:

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So again, we see a pretty high share the work-force in relatively highly compensated White Collar Occupations (Legal, Mgmt, Business, Science, Computers/Math, etc)....

Interestingly enough we see the highest % of the work-force that are Firefighters of almost any place I've delved into in OH CD-12. We also see a higher rate of Educational Occupations than in many other places, so sounds like we have some Union Teachers floating around in Harrison Township (?).

How did Harrison Township Vote for PRES '04 > '16?

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So.... if Etna Township is a tough nut to crack for O'Connor, Harrison Township is an even tougher nut.

On paper both Etna and Harrison Townships look like the types of places where we might expect to see significant Dem shifts within the context of the Trump era, but the reality is that voters in these two townships have not yet exhibited any tendency to indicate a large proportion of persuadable and swing voters that could dramatically change Republican margins.

Maybe Danny O'Connor could do it with the Irish family name:

Harrison Township: 16.1% Irish Ancestry
Etna Township: 17.9% Irish Ancestry
Pataskala City: 14.9% Irish Ancestry
Heath: 17.7% Irish Ancestry
Newark: 16.1% Irish Ancestry

Where I'm going with this is that within the context of Ohio and within Metro-Columbus, the Irish-Americans have faced systematic discrimination in terms of Housing, Employment, etc, and only in the 1960s and 1970s started to move into the Middle-Class without the stigma of Ethnicity and Religion (Huh) being a cudgel used to stop their advancement.

Although I tend not to dwell too much on Religious Affiliation (Plus the data is more obscure to pull down by a County/City level), the reality is that White Catholics (Especially "White Ethnics") have traditionally tended to be the major swing voters in Presidential Elections over the past xxx decades.

One must also wonder to what extent Danny O'Connor might be portrayed as part of the Franklin County Democratic machine in suburban/exurban Columbus Precincts.

Still, Irish-Americans tend to self-identify as overwhelmingly Catholic, and Pope Francis has moved the needle significantly to the Global Left on a wide variety of political issues, which is increasingly impacting the Catholic Community within the United States, when it comes to issues such as economic justice and inequality, environmental issues, immigration and social change within the wealthy nations of Europe and North America, etc...

Even Social Issues such as Reproductive Rights (Birth Control), Divorce, and LGBTQ Equality have been re-framed by the Vatican within the era of Pope Francis.

I have no idea to what extent if any this will have an impact in the OH CD-12 Special Election, but still I wonder to what extent Danny O'Connor will significantly over-perform in certain precincts and communities with a High % of traditional "White Ethnic Catholic Swing Voters" this coming Tuesday.
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« Reply #68 on: August 06, 2018, 08:42:35 pm »

So, one item that I have neglected to discuss thus far are the rural portions of Licking County, which account for roughly 38% of the Total County Vote in US Presidential Elections, and vote overwhelmingly Republican at virtually all levels.

2004: (66-34 R)  +32% R
2008: (63-35 R)  +28% R     (+4% D Swing)
2012: (62-36 R)  +26% R     (+2% D Swing)
2016: (71-25 R)  +46% R     (+20% R Swing)

One thing that I've been wondering is how the impact of Trump's Tariffs on China will play out in Farm Country over the next few election cycles.

Here is the overall Agricultural Profile of Licking County.

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So here we see the significance of Soybean Crops to the local agricultural sector, as well as Corn and grazing land tied to pig feeding, which is a pretty typical pattern in much of Ohio, and that part of the Midwest.

Let's look at the % of the work-force employed directly in the Agricultural Industry by Township within Licking County.

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So here we see that direct agricultural related industries are predominately clustered in the NW portion of the County, as well as a few Townships in the Northeastern corner of the County.

Although overall direct farming related employment isn't that high, which is not completely surprising considering that Corn and Soybeans tend to be capital or machine-intensive forms of Agriculture rather than labor-intensive forms of agriculture, it still creates a disproportionate local economic impact on these communities because of all of the indirect jobs tied to farming.

So let's take a look at a few of these Townships with a higher than average agricultural related employment...

Burlington Township:

2012: (61-36 R)   +25% R
2016: (73-24 R)   +49% R        (+24% R Swing)

Eden/Fallsbury Township:

2012: (60-40 R)    +20% R
2016: (76-20 R)    +56% R      (+36% R Swing)

Bennington Township:

2012: (68-30 R)    +38% R
2016: (74-22 R)    +52% R      (+14% R Swing)

Monroe Township:

2012: (67-30 R)     +37% R
2016: (69- 25 R)    +44% R     (+ 7% R Swing)

So interestingly enough, although more heavily agricultural based townships tend to be overwhelmingly Republican, you do see some potentially persuadable voters that might chose to express their discontent with Trump's Agricultural/Trade policies at the ballot box in upcoming elections.

Now Agricultural isn't the only game in town in Rural Licking County....

Manufacturing is a significant employer in a cluster of Rural Townships located within the SE portion of the County, and in Five of the Six Townships bordered in RED is higher than the overall County Average of 12% of the Workforce.

These Five Townships represent 6.4% of the Licking County total vote share.


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What I suspect is that in many of these Townships, Manufacturing Workers are employed in the Industrial Parks of Newark, although it is possible that there might be a Poultry processing plant in a few places (Perry Township???) would is also technically coded as Manufacturing Employment rather than Agricultural Employment.

How did the heavily manufacturing sector rural Townships vote in previous US Presidential Elections?

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So here we see how Democratic and Republican raw vote numbers were relatively stable at the Presidential level until 2016, where suddenly the raw Republican vote margins jumped from roughly 1.5k R to about 2.8k R.

It will be interesting to see if the Trump phenomenon was a fluke in places like this, or part of a broader shift away from Democratic national candidates.

Now let's look at it from a % level to see how extensive the collapse of the Democratic Presidential vote was in 2016 in these rural manufacturing employed townships.

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Yikes--- the Dems were getting 33-36% of the Vote in '04/'08/'12 and it plummeted to 22% with HRC as the Candidate. Pub Pres vote % was 61-66% and it surged to 71% in 2016!!!

Clearly we have a pretty significant number of "Ancestral Presidential Democrats" floating around in these parts, despite these Townships still being heavily Republican.

How will they vote on Tuesday and this coming November?



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« Reply #69 on: August 10, 2018, 08:15:03 pm »

OH CD-12 EV Numbers to Date Elsewhere within Franklin Co....

Worthington---- 6.6% of 2016 Vote Share.

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EV numbers look atrocious for PUBS even in a City that just recently started voting DEM for PRES in larger numbers in 2012.

Westerville-

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This is a City that went +10% Mitt Romney in '12 and DEM margins are +20%, not even including the other vote in Early Voting!!!

I could pull up similar insane numbers for Dublin, etc.... but really I would not be surprised to see final Franklin County SE numbers looking extremely lopsided for O'Connor considering such an extremely poor Republican EV performance in Franklin County, which I suspect is NOT a typical scenario, and also how even relatively historically PUB friendly municipalities are not turning out their voters.

Next I think I'll take a look at the EV numbers by place for Delaware County and match against historical election results, to give us another election weekend teaser....

THANKS AGAIN EBSY!!!!



@ Badger: I now accept my accolades Tongue

Hey man, when did I ever doubt you that Franklin County turnout was going to kick butt for O'Connor? Wink

You were pretty skeptical for a while that O’Connor could win Dublin or Westerville Tongue

I deny any recollection. Tongue

New Albany, yes. I think that hesitancy disappeared when I learned that Hillary actually carried Dublin and Westerville. 

Really no idea where this race is going to go. Nova and Buckeye nut both make excellent points even if they tend to contradict. Tongue

The best I can say is that if O'Connor wins, come November the races at least lean O'Connor. Not even tilt. If he pulls this off, I can't imagine a democratic incumbent being thrown out barring Scandal like circumstances considering what November is likely to look like.

Ok--- since both of you have been paging the Dublin City- 14% of 2016 GE PRES Vote Share!!! results (Franklin County Portion Only), here are the EV numbers as of Yesterday, courtesy of Ebsy's data-set.   Smiley

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Is this data bad news for the Democrat or Republican in this Special Election?

Honestly, I'm of slightly split minds on this one....

1.) If O'Connor ekes out a narrow win in CD-12, he will likely need to perform extremely well in Cities like Dublin, compared to any historical Democratic performance at either the Statewide or Presidential level.

2.) Although these EV numbers show the largest Democratic margins ever in Dublin in recent years for a Statewide/Federal Election, I'm still not convinced those numbers will hold up once the ED Vote comes in.

Still, playing Devil's Advocate with myself, we only know the DEM/REP/OTHER on the basis of last Primary Election that the voter participated in.... It's entirely possible that you have Republican voters who last voted in the 2016 GE for Kasich, switched to HRC in the GE, or people that voted PUB in the '18 Primary for Statewide elected offices, that are totally receptive to voting for Danny O'Connor for US-Congress from OH CD-12.

3.) Of course it is entirely possible that Danny O'Connor, who is charismatic and well-known Senior Franklin County elected official might perform quite well in a City called Dublin where 16% of the Population trace their Ancestry directly to Ireland.

Probably making too much of all that, but still it's worthy of some consideration, especially considering the historical nature of the "White Catholic Swing Vote", especially in places like the Upper MidWest.

Any thoughts on final margins in the Dublin City part of Franklin County? I'm thinking O'Connor needs to win it by something like +10% to jack up the margins as part of a buffer against PUB margins in Delaware (Especially considering that Dublin in some ways shares more in common with the Townships of SW Delaware County politically than it does with the Columbus City portions of Franklin County), as well as the inevitable PUB victories in the other Counties within CD-12.
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« Reply #70 on: August 10, 2018, 08:16:37 pm »

More anecdotals: My mom is a registered Republican (voted Kasich in the 2016 primary) and my parents’ house (very wealthy part of Gahanna) has been visited five times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from the Balderson folks.  My aunt and uncle (independent and Republican, respectively) live in a particularly country clubby part of New Albany and have been visited three times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from Balderson’s campaign.  

Do you want me to post the numbers from Gahanna and New Albany with EV numbers as of Yesterday (Courtesy of Ebsy.... Smiley    )    Huh?

Although I lived in Ohio for Four Years 20+ Years ago in College, I was basically 20 Minutes from Dayton and 50 Minutes from both Columbus and Cinci, so don't pretend to have any of detailed knowledge of the State from a local perspective anymore, although I remember how excited the College Students on my campus were when Bill Clinton won Ohio in '92 (First time in '64???).

What I *suspect* we might be seeing in Metro Columbus (Based upon '08 > '16 PRES results) is a pattern that we observed for the first time in recent American Electoral History in some of the major Metro areas of the West Coast back in '88 (Seattle, Portland, Bay Area Suburbs) where suburban voters started to identify more with the residents of the "City" as opposed to the traditional City/Suburban political, social, and economic divide.

It's early on yet, but we are starting to see in the heavily Ancestral Republican suburbs of North Franklin County (Including the City of Columbus proper) move heavily Democratic at the Presidential Level.

We have yet to see these types of movements at other Federal Elections (With a few exceptions and a few Cities), let alone see the impact at down-ballot Statewide Races where the Republican Coalition still holds strong, and the Democratic Coalition is much more dependent upon large turnouts in the Cities, Ancestral White Union Democrats throughout, swing voters in the 'Burbs, and keeping margins down in the Rurals, especially in places like SE OH.

Still, at the end of the day a "New Democratic Winning Coalition" in Ohio will inherently involve both a mixture of rapidly swing DEM voters in places like the wealthier 'Burbs of Columbus, combined with high turnout in the Cities, AND regaining those WWC voters that were more than happy to vote for Barrack O'Bama in both '08 and '12 and swung hard Trump in '16....

Yeah, Gahanna and New Albany numbers would be great! Thanks Smiley

My laptop completely crashed on Election Eve, and just got back online....

Ask and ye shall receive:

Franklin Co- OH- Gahanna- 6.1% of 2016 Vote Share.

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People can say what they want to say about the Early Vote in Franklin County, but Republicans at only 25% of the EV in Gahanna looks really weird, and suggests that Dem Franklin County percentages and margins might be extremely high, even outside of the City of Columbus where quite frankly the EV numbers by Party are starting to look more like Portland Oregon GE PRES numbers than would be expected for the wealthy neighborhoods of North Columbus.

Franklin Co- OH - New Albany-  ~ 3% of Franklin County Vote Share 2016.

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Once again we see EV numbers that are completely devastating, in Upper-Income Educated Communities where Republican leaning voters tend to vote extremely early, just like Democrats....

Honestly these EV numbers we are seeing from every Municipality in Franklin County are looking devastating for Republicans, regardless of the massive surge of Democratic voters within the Columbus City precincts of OH CD-12.

Will it be enough, I don't know, but honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see record levels of support for a Democratic Candidate running for Federal Office within most of Franklin County.


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« Reply #71 on: August 10, 2018, 08:17:28 pm »

If I were part of the O'Connor campaign this is what I would be perhaps most worried about....

Licking County---- Newark, Ohio--- `25% of 2016 Licking County Vote Share.

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Although on paper these margin improvements in the CD-12 EV look like really nice numbers, the reality is that this is nowhere near the numbers that O'Connor needs to perform in to keep Licking County margins low.

This is quite frankly home to a ton of Obama '08/'12 > Trump '16 voters, and I'm not seeing the numbers here to suggest thus far that O'Connor will keep PUB numbers low within one of the larger vote centers within the County....


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« Reply #72 on: August 10, 2018, 08:18:28 pm »

Now that we have "provisional" election results by by precinct for Franklin County, time to take a look at the overall numbers....

Here is the Vote Share % by Place in Franklin County between the 2016 Presidential Total Vote and the 2018 OH CD-12 numbers (Excepting any still to be counted absentee and provisional ballots, which will likely occur in more heavily DEM precincts within the County).

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So although it's slightly harder to discern from the Graph, it's pretty clear that the CD-12 Franklin County precincts in Columbus, actually accounted for a significantly lower share of the total vote share than in 2016....

It's not just the raw % numbers, but also that 3% of Franklin County jurisdictional ballots were classified as "Write-In" in 2016, as opposed to 2018. Meaning that if the City of Columbus represented roughly 50% of the Write-In ballots in 2016 (Assuming even City vs elsewhere in FrankCo split), we still have an additional 1.5% decrease of the total vote share for the City of Columbus precincts within CD-12.

Columbus was 47.6% of the Total Vote Share of CD-12 in 2016 and was 47.1% in 2018, even without subtracting an additional 1.5%, which would put it closer to 45.6% in '18 (Without absentee/provo votes).

Meanwhile you see more traditional Republican places in Franklin Co CD-12, see an increase in their overall Vote Share....

Dublin goes from 14.0% > 15.3%   (+1.3% Increase)
Westerville: 11.4% > 13.2%           (+1.8% Increase)

Now I haven't run the VAP numbers for Dublin and Westerville between Nov '16 and Aug '18 to account for population % change, but still these numbers appear to indicate an increase of PUB leaning TO in Franklin County receptive places, regardless of demographic change.

How did the places in Franklin County shift between '16 PRES GE and '18 CD-12 SE (Current #s only without the Provo Vote)Huh?

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Very interesting....

Not only did IN COLUMBUS we see the lowest swings between '16 and '18 of any place within Franklin County, but also the largest drop of the overall vote share....

This was supposed to be O'Connors "Dem surge" stronghold, but instead it was other parts of Franklin County that dramatically bumped the DEM's % AND raw vote margins.

Westerville: 11.4% Vote Share (2016) ---- > 13.2% Vote Share (2018) ---- +1.8% Vote Share Increase '16 GE > '18 CD-12 SE.

Swings: + 19 DEM ('16 GE to '18 SE)

Worthington: 6.6% Vote Share (2016) ---->  8.4% Vote Share (2018) ---- +1.8% Vote Share Increase '16 GE > '18 CD-12 SE.

Swings: + 13 % DEM ('16 GE to '18 SE).

Columbus:

Swings: +13% D

This would normally be reasonable, but decreased Columbus Vote Share wiped off a decent chunk of potential Columbus margins in a normal General Election... (Is there such a thing???).

New Albany:

Way under-performance on Dem swings.... Vote Share (Huh) not so sure, it's a pretty small community, but they tend to be reliable voters in just about any election in Franklin County.

I'll go into each of the cities in a bit more detail, now that I have an initial precinct data set for Franklin County, but initial results are actually quite interesting and perhaps even raise some questions about the CW of so many Media pundits on this election....

IDK, but just started looking into the numbers, and thought I would share some of the stuff that I've fulled up thus far.










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« Reply #73 on: August 11, 2018, 03:35:55 am »

Ok---- let's look through a few of the Cities in Franklin County in more detail now that we have at least the initial batch of unofficial numbers prior to any ABS or PROV votes....

Westerville--- 13.2% of Franklin County CD-12 Vote Share:

As I briefly mentioned sometime back in a brief profile of the CD-12 portion of Franklin County, Westerville is the 3rd largest City located in Franklin County (Pop 36.8k), although portions of the City extend into Delaware County (I'll get to that on the Delaware County post later).

Median Household Income ( $82.1k):

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So Westerville skews relatively Upper-Middle Class by Household Income, but there is also a pretty decent chunk of Middle-Class Households in there as well.

Still, relatively Upper Middle-Class voters tend to vote more reliably, even in "off-year" elections, which likely helps explain a good chunk of the Cities increase in Vote Share between '16 GE and '18 SE....

Race/Ethnicity:

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It's a few % points more Anglo than Ohio as a whole, and significantly less African-American than Ohio as a whole.

Age Demographics:

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It skews slightly older and with fewer Millennial Gens (Which makes sense considering it's probably a somewhat more expensive place to buy or rent in than some other alternatives....

Educational Attainment:

Check standard box for major '16 US-PRES DEM swings..... 60% Post HS Diploma is pretty educated in most parts of the Country....

Relative Occupations:

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So here it starts to get even more interesting....

As expected we see a significantly higher than average concentration of occupations in White Collar jobs, as well as a much lower concentration of occupations in Blue Collar jobs. Still, as someone who has been both MGMT and Rank-and-file, there were times where employees reporting to me were making significantly more money overall compared because of built in Overtime for skilled workers, while I was working 60 Hours a Week for the same Pay as I would have been making at 40 Hours/Week.

however the numbers for Computers/Math and Education stand out here.

So.... Westerville experienced the largest swings of any Municipality in Franklin County in CD-12 between the '16 GE versus the preliminary numbers for the 2018 CD-12 Special Election.

Let's look at the election results for the US Presidential Elections between 2004 and 2016 with swings, as well as the results from the 2018 CD-12 Special election.

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What we see here is even in 2004, which was Four Years after Political Scientists first started to note not only a dramatic increase in the % of American Workers in the "Knowledge Sector", but also major swings towards the Democratic Party in 2000 among this demographic, George W. Bush still beat Kerry by ~ 20% points in 2004 in a tight election in Ohio!!!!

Even in 2008 and 2012 Westerville voted consistently for Republican PRES candidates by +10%.

In 2016 we first observed a Democrat winning Westerville, but even there HRC only garnered 50% of the Vote, with 3rd Parties sucking up the remaining 5.5% gap between the Major Parties.

In 2018, Westerville goes (57-32 D) +25% D for a US-House election, which seems to indicate that the "disease" is starting to really infect down-ballot PUB candidates.

Obviously one of the questions that I'm curious about, is to what extent will we see that manifest this November for Statewide Elections within Ohio....

OK--- Now let's take a slightly deeper dive into Westerville to see *WHERE* these swings took place in terms of the overall political Geography....

Let's Start with the Ward Map of Westerville, since there was one precinct added between '16 and '18 in Ward 3.

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Now let's look at the Swings by Ward within Westerville from the '16 GE to the '18 SE....

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OK--- We see 2/5 Wards significantly under-perform and 3/5 significantly over-perform for the Democrats....

Wards # 3 & 5 had only relatively minor swings towards the Dems in the Special Election and Wards # 1,2, & 4 had significant swings towards the Democrats....

Ok--- now let's look at the Vote Drop-Off % by Ward within the Westerville precincts of Franklin County....

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We see almost a 70% voter drop-off in Ward # 3 and a 47% drop-off in Ward #5....

Meanwhile in Ward #2 and Ward #4 we see only about a 35% voter drop-off compared in the '16 GE!!!

OK--- fair enough.... what did the voting pool or voting share by Ward look like in Westerville in '16 and '18?

2018:

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2016:

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So---- Looks like Ward #2 has always been a major contender representing roughly 30% of the Vote Share in both the '16 GE and the '18 CD-12 SE and jumped up from 29% to 32% and is the Biggest kid on the block....

Ward #3 has always been the small kid on the block of the (5) Franklin County Wards of Westerville bagging 14% of the City Vote in '16 and plunging down to 11 % in the Special Election

Ward #5 has been wrestling with Ward #1 for the number Two biggest Ward on the City Blocks of Westerville, with both roughly representing about 20% of the City Each....

So Now one starts to wonder about why Wards #2 and Wards #4 swung so heavily Democrat, and why voter turnout dropped so dramatically in Wards # 3 and Wards #5?Huh

Let's look a little more closely at the Demographics in Wards #3 & #5....

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So, here we see a pretty decent sized African-American community concentrated heavily in the SW portion of Westerville representing roughly 20-40% of the population that heavily overlaps with precincts in Ward #3 and Ward #5.

Precinct 5-B in Westerville for example, saw a 74% of raw voter numbers between the 2016 General Election and the prelim numbers from the 2018 CD-12 GE, which was the highest in the entire Franklin County portions of the City....

Precincts 3-A and 3-C experienced a 66-72% drop in the Total Votes between '16 and the '18 SE.

Now Westerville added an additional precinct 3-E in 2018, so without having looked at the precinct line changes here between '16 and '18, it's slightly more difficult to see exactly where the Total Vote drop-off occured in Ward #3....

So these are the precinct swing numbers I'm looking at, along with drop-off voters from '16 GE > '18 SE...

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NOW--- let's take a look at MHI by US Census Tract within the Franklin County portion of Westerville...

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So, most of the wealthier parts of Westerville are actually over the Delaware County line, where MHI runs ~ $120k/Yr (Would be awesome wage in relatively low cost of living Metro Columbus), but still the darker shading on the Franklin County Census Tract still has an MHI of $102k+/Yr, which is obviously nothing to sneeze at in most parts of the US.

These precincts tend to heavily overlap with much of Ward #2, where you had relatively low voter drop-off and relatively large swings....

Ward #4 swings '16 > '18 appear to have been driven heavily by one individual precinct (Westerville 4-A that swung +22.7% D ('16 to '18) AND only saw a 28.8% TV drop-off....

That's really odd, but it appears to overlap with an overwhelmingly College Aged Census Tract...

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Now, once I start looking at the data, we have Otterbein University that basically dominates the precinct....

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So this precinct went: 2018- (58-41 D) +17% D from 2016 (45-50 R) +5% R---- +22% SWING.

In 2012: (40- 59 R) +19% R   or a +14% swing between '12 and '16....

Not sure exactly what's going on here and why not only didn't student turnout drop in the Middle of Summer for a Special Election, but also why the hell this Republican voting University where Trump beat HRC by +5% swung hard towards O'Connor....

Regardless, it helps explain part of the swings in Ward 4....

There are a lot of things to look at in the details of the OH CD-12 Special Election, and I would strongly caution everyone to not totally get onto their "jump to conclusions mat" until we get a chance to mine through the details much more extensively....

Obviously now that I have seen some of the results from Westerville, I start to wonder to what extent Danny O'Connor under-performed in other African-American parts of Columbus?

To what extent did the Student Vote (Or lack thereof in most cases) contribute to margin shifts in certain parts of Licking County for example, or even the OSU overlap in parts of Columbus?

I suspect part of the reason many Pub's are quietly flipping out, is that they are seeing many of these swings in CD-12 occurring in some of their safest and most reliable high-turnout base areas.... I suspect that there might be a strong argument to be made that even in CD-12 with higher turnout in November these trends might be even more brutal....























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« Reply #74 on: August 11, 2018, 07:00:16 pm »

Working through some more places in Franklin County---

Worthington- Pop 13.5k---- 8.4% of Franklin County CD-12 Vote Share (+ 1.8% from '16 GE).

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Worthington had the 2nd largest swing towards O'Connor of any place in the Franklin County portions of CD-12 compared against the 2016 US PRES votes (+13% Dem Swing).

Let's take a peek at how it has voted for President starting in 2004 through the CD-12 Special Election of 2018.

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So as we can see it was basically 50-50 in 2004, swung heavily towards Obama in '08, stayed constant in '12, swung +20% Dem in 2016, and +13% Dem in 2018.

The Pub raw % numbers only dropped 4% between '16 and '18, which indicates that a decent chunk of the 3rd Party PRES voters in '16 voted DEM in '18, combined with a reasonable but not huge % of Trump '16 > O'Connor '18 voters.

Again, the thing that really stands out for me is how rapidly Worthington is shifting into a heavily Democratic voting City at the Federal level, effectively becoming the 2nd most Democratic City within this portion of CD-12.

So, let's take a more detailed look at the Demographics of Worthington, before delving a bit into the ward/precinct turnout and results....

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So here we see that Worthington is a bit older than the population of Ohio at large, slightly below on the 40-60 age category, a significant bump in the 30-40 category, and way lower population of 18-29 Years.

Race/Ethnicity:

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Worthington is quite a bit Whiter than Ohio as a whole, and a much lower proportion of African-Americans.

Median Household Income (MHI)Sad

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33% of the Households make more than $ 125k /Yr
56% make more than $75k/Yr

This is pretty clearly an Upper-Middle-Class City, with a relatively high % of affluent folks.

Educational Attainment:

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It is an extremely well educated City with 72% of the Pop over 25 having greater than a HS Diploma.

Relative Occupations:

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As expected these skew heavily White Collar/Professional. Interestingly enough along with your usual Business/Mgmt/Computers/Science-Math occupations, you have a much higher % of people in other occupations such as Legal, Entertainment, and Education than would typically be the case for these types of communities.

Time to break down Worthington by Wards to see what happened in more detail:


Here is a Chart breakdown of the 2016 PRES and 2018 CD-12 SE:

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Let's look at it in a graphical format:

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So--- Ward #2 is the most Democratic Part of the City 2016: (70-24 D), 2018 (80-20 D).

Wards #1 and # 4 are the most Republican parts of the City, with a much lower swing in Ward #1 than elsewhere in Worthington between '16 and '18.

Now let's look at the Vote Drop Off by Ward between the '16 PRES election and the '18 Special Election:

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So Ward #3 saw a 52% drop-off in Total Votes between '16 and '18, and Ward #1 (The most Republican and smallest margin swings) has the smallest TV drop-off....

Ward #2, the overwhelmingly Democratic Ward had a relatively small voter drop-off as well.

Now, since Worthington has rapidly become a heavily Democratic bastion, time to look at the results for the 2016 OH-SEN race and the 2016 CD-12 race by Ward to see what the numbers show.

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So, Ward #2 was the only Ward that voted DEM for OH-SEN in 2016 and the only Ward that voted DEM for US-HOUSE CD-12 in 2016.

Again Wards #1 and #4 stand out as the most Republican Wards, and Ward #3 is basically a City bellweather with results tending to cluster close to the City average TV % for most races.

NOW---- Let's drill it down to more detailed demographic data by Ward to see what's going on here...

Here is a Map of MHI by Census Tract:

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So---

Ward #1: is basically the wealthiest dark RED Census Tracts of $120k/$133k/$100k in the Western Part of the Map.

Ward #2: Basically the $78k/$85k areas on the Map

Ward #3: The Northwest Corner of the Map---- $103k

Ward #4: The Northeast Corner of the Map- $ 71k

Wow--- So the most PUB areas in Worthington are both the most affluent and also the most Middle-Class (And least affluent part of the City)!!!!

The Ward (#3) with the largest % drop of the votes is relatively upper Middle Class, and the DEM stronghold is solidly Middle Class, but basically only the 3rd wealthiest ward in terms of MHI....

OK---- so maybe Race/Ethnicity can explain some of the variances by Wards within Worthington?


Problem is that the City is so overwhelmingly Anglo, it really overall doesn't appear to be much of a factor even in a detailed breakdown.

We do have a significant Asian-American population clustered in one of three Census Tracts in Ward #1:

Map of Asian-American Population by Census Tract:

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So in Ward #1 we see 14% Asian-American population around Precinct 1-B.... 2016: (66-31 D); 2018 (73-27 D). Roughly 50% of the Asia population is Chinese-American.

It's the most Democratic Precinct now in Ward #1, and also experienced the largest swings towards the DEM in the CD-12 SE....

We do also see a smaller Asian-American population of 5% in Two other Census Tracts in Ward #1, as well as a 7% population in the Northern part of Ward #3.

SO--- since I started looking at Race/Ethnicity as a potential variable, decided to pull numbers on Ancestry by Census Tract to see if that might explain anything....

Here is a Census Tract breakdown by Irish Ancestry for Worthington:

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So---- Ward #2 roughly overlaps with the 24-27% Irish Ancestry corner of the map....

Ward #1 has a decent Irish-American Population in the more PUB leaning precincts, and only 15% in the most heavily Asian American precinct/Census Tract.

Ward # 4: Is only 16% Irish-American, but was the Trumpiest Ward in '16, and still swung O'Connor by AVG City margins.

Ward #3: 20% Irish-American, but place with highest vote drop-off from '16 PRES to '18 CD-12 SE, albeit with +15% O'Connor swings!!!

So, if there was a hidden Irish-American surge in Worthington, Ward #2 is the only place where this might be explainable, within the context of Metro Columbus European Ethnic political dynamics.

Now we need to control for AGE, since obviously there were some pretty huge AGE GAP margins in the 2016 Presidential Election???

It gets tricky with the US Census Map tool that I use to easily isolate age, but let's start here....

Here is a Census Tract Map of the % of the TOTAL POPULATION aged 30-39:

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Now this appears to clearly indicate that there is a major concentration of Older Millennials concentrated in Ward #2....

Now let's look at the Census Tract Map of TOTAL POPULATION aged 18-39 as a % by Census Tract....

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OK--- now we're getting somewhere.... Basically 33% of the entire population of Ward #2 is aged 18-39.... Once you add in the 25% of the population that are Children, you only have 42% of the population that over the age of 40!!!!

We also see how Ward #1 has the lowest % of total population aged 18-39 (Maybe somewhere around 17% Huh) and maybe somewhere around 22% that are Children, meaning 61% of the population are 40+ Yrs old.

So, it looks like Millennials turned out in force in Ward #2 (Even although it is NOT a college precinct) AND Middle-aged / Older voters turned out in force in Ward #1 (My drop-off chart above).

Now let's look at where the older population is most heavily concentrated in Worthington by Census Tract:

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Wait--- what the heck is that one Census Tract in the SW corner of the City where 40% of the Pop are over the age of 60???

Ahhh.... looks like that is Worthington precinct 1-C, one of the more 'Pub precincts in the City these days 2016 PRES: (55-39 D); 2018: (63-37 D).... Still it had a good 10% swing which although it was one of the worst in the City, still wasn't too shabby.

NOW---- What about precinct 4-C???   It swung +22% DEM between '16 and the '18 CD-12 SE, which was the largest swing anywhere within Worthington.

2016: (53-39 D)  +14% D;   2018: (68-32 D)  +36% D.

Precinct Map of Ward #4:

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I'm a little confused why this precinct North of Schrock Road swung so heavily Democratic.... it doesn't help that I can't break down Census Tract data into enough detail... Sure we have some Census Block tracts with a younger age cohort within this Precinct, compared to much of the rest of Ward #4, but still...

At this point it's pretty clear that overall Worthington is moving into solidly Democratic Party voting patterns at all Federal Elections, and among most major demographics within the City.

The key question, is what will happen when the voters of places like Worthington go to the polls in November to vote for Statewide Elected offices....
























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