2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[BudgieForce]

Morning Consult went from D+8 to D+5
YouGov went from D+4 to D+4
Rasmussen went from D+6 to D+8

An net overall tightening. Perhaps, Dems will start seeing the backlash to wanting to abolish ICE.

About a .3 tightening.

Dems in disarray...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Morning Consult went from D+8 to D+5
YouGov went from D+4 to D+4
Rasmussen went from D+6 to D+8

An net overall tightening. Perhaps, Dems will start seeing the backlash to wanting to abolish ICE.

About a .3 tightening.

Dems in disarray...

Speaks louder that they're pulling away in RASMUSSEN of all pollsters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult went from D+8 to D+5
YouGov went from D+4 to D+4
Rasmussen went from D+6 to D+8

An net overall tightening. Perhaps, Dems will start seeing the backlash to wanting to abolish ICE.

About a .3 tightening.

Dems in disarray...

For some reason, he left Ipsos (which went from D+7 to D+12) off that list.  Gosh, I wonder why.

[wesmoorenerd]

Morning Consult went from D+8 to D+5
YouGov went from D+4 to D+4
Rasmussen went from D+6 to D+8

An net overall tightening. Perhaps, Dems will start seeing the backlash to wanting to abolish ICE.

About a .3 tightening.

Dems in disarray...

Speaks louder that they're pulling away in RASMUSSEN of all pollsters.

That should be a red flag more than anything.

lmao aight pal if you say so

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Morning Consult went from D+8 to D+5
YouGov went from D+4 to D+4
Rasmussen went from D+6 to D+8

An net overall tightening. Perhaps, Dems will start seeing the backlash to wanting to abolish ICE.

About a .3 tightening.

Dems in disarray...

Speaks louder that they're pulling away in RASMUSSEN of all pollsters.

That should be a red flag more than anything.

Hot-take Hofoid

[Landslide Lyndon]

Morning Consult went from D+8 to D+5
YouGov went from D+4 to D+4
Rasmussen went from D+6 to D+8

An net overall tightening. Perhaps, Dems will start seeing the backlash to wanting to abolish ICE.

About a .3 tightening.

Dems in disarray...

Speaks louder that they're pulling away in RASMUSSEN of all pollsters.

That should be a red flag more than anything.

Your commie baiting is disgusting and must stop now.

[Florida Man for Crime]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1017153866633277441

GOP holding their internals close to their chests. Wonder why?

Because Republicans are brilliant strategists, they want to use the element of surprise in the incoming red wave. No one will be expecting it, and then suddenly they win everything by 50 points.

[Zaybay]

Fox poll
D+8
https://www.scribd.com/document/383743616/Fox-July-2018-National-Topline-July-12-Release#download&from_embed


On mobile, sorry for the lack of info upfront

[Ebsy]

D+8 while Trump is only down 46/51 in approve/disapprove. Doubt he'll be in as good a shape on election day.

[BudgieForce]

D+8 while Trump is only down 46/51 in approve/disapprove. Doubt he'll be in as good a shape on election day.

Fox's numbers for Trump have been remarkably stable. Their generic ballot numbers have not.

[KingSweden]

That’s a pretty good number from Fox

[GeorgiaModerate]

The last previous Fox poll was 48/39 from June 3-6, so the new one is a change of R+1.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The last previous Fox poll was 48/39 from June 3-6, so the new one is a change of R+1.

The backlash from Democrats support of the Southern rebels continues.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Democrats are back up to an 8-point lead in the RCP average, 8.4 at 538.

[cp]

The Democrats are back up to an 8-point lead in the RCP average, 8.4 at 538.

Meanwhile, 538's average is 10.5.

It is *very clearly too early* to make anything this. However, the pattern also very clearly corresponds to the GOP in 2010 and the Dems in 2006.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Democrats are back up to an 8-point lead in the RCP average, 8.4 at 538.

Meanwhile, 538's average is 10.5.

It is *very clearly too early* to make anything this. However, the pattern also very clearly corresponds to the GOP in 2010 and the Dems in 2006.

I think you're mixing your 538 averages (maybe you left out a couple of words).  538 has Trump disapproval at +10.5, with their GCB at D+8.4.

[Ebsy]

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-core-political-2018-07-11

Ipsos now at D+13.

Among RV:
Dem: 47 (+1)
GOP: 34

[Badger]

Morning Consult went from D+8 to D+5
YouGov went from D+4 to D+4
Rasmussen went from D+6 to D+8

An net overall tightening. Perhaps, Dems will start seeing the backlash to wanting to abolish ICE.

About a .3 tightening.

Dems in disarray...

For some reason, he left Ipsos (which went from D+7 to D+12) off that list.  Gosh, I wonder why.

[cp]

The Democrats are back up to an 8-point lead in the RCP average, 8.4 at 538.

Meanwhile, 538's average is 10.5.

It is *very clearly too early* to make anything this. However, the pattern also very clearly corresponds to the GOP in 2010 and the Dems in 2006.

I think you're mixing your 538 averages (maybe you left out a couple of words).  538 has Trump disapproval at +10.5, with their GCB at D+8.4.

Oops. My bad. Thanks for pointing that out

That said, it has risen to D+8.9.

[Skill and Chance]

What do we think is the point at which the House flips?  Probably D+6.5 or so if we are going strictly by the R-held seats with the closest Clinton/Trump numbers.  Increasingly, though, it looks like there are enough Ojedas and McCreadys leading deep in Trump country to make it lower than that.  I would be fairly confident D+5 nationwide flips the House, and under the right circumstances, even D+3-4 could.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What do we think is the point at which the House flips?  Probably D+6.5 or so if we are going strictly by the R-held seats with the closest Clinton/Trump numbers.  Increasingly, though, it looks like there are enough Ojedas and McCreadys leading deep in Trump country to make it lower than that.  I would be fairly confident D+5 nationwide flips the House, and under the right circumstances, even D+3-4 could.

Don't forget that the overall Democratic margin will be inflated by the fact that there are quite a few more districts with no Republican running than with no Democrat.  (I think the last count was 39-4, but that might be a little off.)

IMO your suggestion of D+6.5 is probably a good mark for the tipping point, but of course distribution of votes matters a lot.  It's quite possible the D's could lose the House at +7 or win it at +6.  If the margin falls below 5 I think it's very unlikely the House flips, but if it's 8 or more a flip is almost certain.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm not that optimistic. I'd say +10, thanks to the illegal gerrymandering.

That's why I think the Senate will almost certainly flip, but the House won't.

[BudgieForce]

I really hope we dont find out that a +7 popular vote win isnt enough to flip the house. That would be incredibly demoralizing.

[Virginiá]

I really hope we dont find out that a +7 popular vote win isnt enough to flip the house. That would be incredibly demoralizing.

I'm sure Republicans love having so much power, but they should care about how they get it too. This isn't a game, after all. There is a lot at stake in these elections, and constantly holding power despite getting far fewer votes is a really bad way to maintain faith in the country's elections. It's compounded by the fact that Republicans actively sow distrust among their own voters just so they can justify voter suppression laws.

[Skill and Chance]

I really hope we dont find out that a +7 popular vote win isnt enough to flip the house. That would be incredibly demoralizing.

There's enough Conor Lamb types out there keeping Trump districts competitive that I really don't see this happening.