2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[BudgieForce]

I can't believe 538 is actually using the discredited NBC poll.

Discredited?

[Holmes]

It's on, like Donkey Kong:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021412755700682752

I'll see if I can hit up my source for some sort of clue on what the numbers will be.

[Jeppe]

Incumbent congressman Mike Capuano leading primary challenger Ayanna Pressley by 9 points.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It's on, like Donkey Kong:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021412755700682752

Lamb will be leading by 5-6.

[ajc0918]

FL-25 Diaz-Balart in trouble?

Initial ask:

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After gun control questions:

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Full results:
https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/FL-CD-25-ARS-May-2018-2-Questionnaire-1.pdf

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

FL-25 Diaz-Balart is trouble?

Initial ask:

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After gun control questions:

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Full results:
https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/FL-CD-25-ARS-May-2018-2-Questionnaire-1.pdf

Not really but one to keep an eye on.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

FL-25 Diaz-Balart in trouble?

Initial ask:

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After gun control questions:

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Full results:
https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/FL-CD-25-ARS-May-2018-2-Questionnaire-1.pdf

Definitely wouldn’t be shocked to see Barzee-Flores win. She’s a good candidate.

She could probably pull it off if she pressures Mario into having a debate with her.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's on, like Donkey Kong:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021412755700682752

Lamb +6-8

[Florida Man for Crime]

FL-25 Diaz-Balart in trouble?

Initial ask:

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After gun control questions:

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Full results:
https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/FL-CD-25-ARS-May-2018-2-Questionnaire-1.pdf

#DiazBalartUnder50

[Devils30]

Dems are probably not winning FL-25 this year but I expect our 2020 nominee to carry it based on recent trends. Eventually (by 2024) this will be blue at the congressional level. Of course the next redistricting may cut out the Collier part of the district as well.

[ajc0918]

Dems are probably not winning FL-25 this year but I expect our 2020 nominee to carry it based on recent trends. Eventually (by 2024) this will be blue at the congressional level. Of course the next redistricting may cut out the Collier part of the district as well.

Yeah it's going to be hard to carve out a GOP district in Miami-Dade in 2020. And given that SW FL will likely get a new seat, it will only make the Miami-Dade districts more compact.

[Devils30]

It makes a lot of sense that Collier will get part of a new district (call it FL-28) and FL-25 will get more D and be a compact western Dade seat.

[mencken]

It's on, like Donkey Kong:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021412755700682752

Keith is going to get Lambinated.

[Ebsy]

Obviously Emerson is pretty close to junk but they have Democrats +15 on the GCP in Michigan:

If the election for U.S. Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote or lean towards voting in the district where you live?               
DEM: 50
GOP: 35

[Ebsy]

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-ma-7.23.18.pdf



High undecideds among African American and Latino voters.

[Beet]

That's very close. It would be ironic if Capuano got knocked off but Lynch is reelected.

[MAINEiac4434]

[Zaybay]

Capuano is likely to win, the undecideds will go to him, based off the crosstabs. Pressley doesnt have the issues, nor the enthusiasm, to win.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm happy with early voting by party in Ohio, but I remember when absentees were reported in 2017 Alabama Senate GE, Moore was only leading by 18 or 19 points in Winston county, by the end of the night, it was well over 60 points.

[Jeppe]

Early voting isn’t big in Ohio, and the people who vote early are a pretty Democratic bunch. Republicans got themselves an actually good nominee in Balderson, so I’m not too optimistic about O’Connor’s chances. But it does feel more likely than AZ-08, where the slow drudge of the huge Republican voting advantage made defeat seem inevitable.

[Ebsy]

Early voting isn’t big in Ohio, and the people who vote early are a pretty Democratic bunch. Republicans got themselves an actually good nominee in Balderson, so I’m not too optimistic about O’Connor’s chances. But it does feel more likely than AZ-08, where the slow drudge of the huge Republican voting advantage made defeat seem inevitable.

Normally around 40% of the general election vote is early.

[Ebsy]

https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/FL-CD-25-ARS-May-2018-2-Questionnaire-1.pdf

PPP internal for Dem outside group in FL-25:

Flores (Dem): 39
Diaz-Balart(GOP): 46

Generic D: 45
Generic R: 47

[IceSpear]

It's on, like Donkey Kong:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021412755700682752

Hopefully Flawed Homely Rothfus is getting Lambasted.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It's on, like Donkey Kong:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021412755700682752

I'll see if I can hit up my source for some sort of clue on what the numbers will be.

Any updates?

[cp]

https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/FL-CD-25-ARS-May-2018-2-Questionnaire-1.pdf

PPP internal for Dem outside group in FL-25:

Flores (Dem): 39
Diaz-Balart(GOP): 46

Generic D: 45
Generic R: 47

Internal poll, GOP still ahead in generic ballot and match up; seems pretty unremarkable, no?

... oh

(Diaz-Balart won by nearly 2:1 margin in 2016. That even a partisan internal poll could show him <50% and within single digits is awful for him, and most every other Republican this year)