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  2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
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Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 22626 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #100 on: January 25, 2019, 10:45:27 am »

山梨(Yamanashi) governor election this sunday will be neck-to-neck.

It will be the CDP-DPP backed incumbent vs LDP backed candidate vs ex-YP (but was DPJ background) vs JCP

Back in 2015 the LDP backed the current incumbent(who has a DPJ background) because the strongest LDP candidate was a long time LDP rebel and the local LDP branch rather back a pro-DPJ candidate rather than reconcile with this LDP rebel.

This time the LDP rebel in question 長崎 幸太郎(Nagasaki Kōtarō) who beat the official candidate as an MP for couple of cycles finally reconciled with the LDP in 2017 but lost his seat in the 2017 election.  So this time the LDP will back him as the candidate to try to take down the pro-Opposition governor. 

It seems this race will be neck-to-neck between LDP and CDP-DPP and from which voting base the ex-YP candidate will cut into (LDP voters or center-left opposition voters)  will determine the winner.
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jaichind
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« Reply #101 on: January 27, 2019, 08:11:31 am »

山梨(Yamanashi) governor election seems to have went LDP's way over the CDP-DPP incumbent

Exit poll seems to have the LDP candidate winning around 50% of the vote in a 4 way race
 

Main reasons of victory (according to NHK breakdown)
Is that LDP supporters formed 46% of the voters while KP formed 3% of the voters most of which went to the LDP candidate.  CDP formed 11% of the voters, DPP 3% and JCP 3%.  The a good part of the critical independent bloc(30%) also voted for the LDP candidate.
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jaichind
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« Reply #102 on: January 27, 2019, 08:15:37 am »

With 46% of the vote counted for the 山梨(Yamanashi) governor election  it is

LDP           49.3%
CDP-DPP    41.6% (incumbant)
ex-YP          4.8% (have DPJ background as well)
JCP             4.4%

Usually for governor races the incumbent have a large advantage.  For LDP to take out this pro-opposition incumbent is a great coup and another feather in the cap of Abe.  This is pretty negative news for the opposition for the upcoming Upper House elections as  山梨(Yamanashi)  is an example a rural 1- member swing district the opposition has to win in order to stop a LDP landslide.
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jaichind
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« Reply #103 on: January 27, 2019, 08:30:35 am »

With 78% of the vote counted for the 山梨(Yamanashi) governor election  it is

LDP-KP       50.3%
CDP-DPP    42.5% (incumbant)
ex-YP          3.8% (have DPJ background as well)
JCP             3.4%

It seems the main battle now is will LDP still be above 50% ?
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jaichind
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« Reply #104 on: January 27, 2019, 08:45:24 am »

With 89% of the vote counted for the 山梨(Yamanashi) governor election  it is

LDP-KP       50.2%
CDP-DPP    42.7% (incumbant)
JCP             3.6%
ex-YP          3.6 (have DPJ background as well)
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jaichind
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« Reply #105 on: January 27, 2019, 09:54:46 am »

All votes counted for the 山梨(Yamanashi) governor election  it is

LDP-KP       49.7%
CDP-DPP    41.8% (incumbent)
ex-YP          4.3% (have DPJ background as well)
JCP             4.1%

It seems the key aspect of this race was that the LDP-KP candidate was able to consolidate all the pro-LDP forces.  The key factor here is the ex-YP candidate was reduced to 4.3%.  It seems that this 4.3% is almost all anti-LDP voters and all the pro-LDP voters went over to the LDP-KP winner.  This same ex-YP candidate ran in the Upper House election for 山梨(Yamanashi) in both 2013 and 2016 with the results being

2013
LDP          36.1%
pro-DPJ    19.2%
pro-DPJ    15.7%
YP            14.9% (old DPJ incumbent but went over to YP)
JCP            9.1%


While in 2016 the DP and JCP formed an alliance with the JCP backed the DP candidate but the old DPJ incumbent from the 2013 election cycle that went over to YP ran again

2016
DP              43.0%
LDP           37.8%
ex-YP        16.7%
HRP            2.5%

It seems clear that this ex-YP candidate pulled in in 2013 and 2016 15.7% and 16.7% of the vote a good part of seems to be pro-LDP voters.  This time around that entire bloc of voters did not vote for this ex-YP candidate and went back to the LDP leading to the LDP unexpectedly large victory.
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jaichind
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« Reply #106 on: January 27, 2019, 09:56:43 am »

Back to topic of opposition unity.  With DPP and LP in talks with a merger and it seems in response CDP and SDP are in talks to from a common caucus and possible merger.

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« Reply #107 on: January 27, 2019, 04:28:58 pm »

Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I'm starting to wonder if there's some sort of unreported or inadequately-reported democratic backsliding on the level of voting rolls or freedom of the press or something going on in Japan. The repeated, clockwork-like LDP landslides at practically every level no matter what the Abe government is doing or has done lately are starting to get downright unsettling.
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jaichind
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« Reply #108 on: January 27, 2019, 09:19:18 pm »

Nikkei poll on PR section of 2019 Upper House elections

LDP  41%
CDP  12%
CDP   1%
KP     5%
JCP    4%
JRP    2%
LP     1%
SDP  1%
HP    0%


Note that a similar poll in May 2016 had LDP at 44% and DP at 12% and the PR vote ended up LDP 36% and DP 21%.  The way I would read this poll is to add LDP+KP support and add a couple of percentages to be the LDP-KP PR support rate.  Lots of KP PR voters claim to pollsters that they are LDP supporters. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #109 on: January 28, 2019, 07:48:02 am »
« Edited: February 06, 2019, 04:52:37 pm by jaichind »

Fuji Evening Times magazine came out with their projection for 2019 Upper House elections.  It is pretty negative for LDP but usually at this time of the year these projections are pretty bad for LDP anyway.  Most of it is about the media company needing to generate sales of their magazine so a "shocking" projection are more likely to generate sales.  So these projections should be seen as some sort of floor of LDP performance.



         District    PR    Total    Implied PR vote
LDP      32        17      49              32.0%
KP         7          7       14             13.5%
CDP      15        15      30             28.5%
DPP       5          3        8               6.0%
JCP        2          5       7                9.5%
HP         1          0        1               1.5%
SDP       0          0        0               1.5%
LP          1          0        1               1.5%
OPPN      9                   9           (Opposition joint candidates)

Which gets LDP-KP to 63 seats a bare majority out of 124 seats up for grabs.   Of course one has to read this as the worst worst possible result for LDP.

The various media outlets will come out with these negative projection for LDP to generate sales and then a couple weeks before the election come out with "real" projections that is much more favorable to LDP and much more likely to be accurate.

Same magazine also did a project for Lower House and came up with LDP losing around 55 seats and CDP gaining 70 seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #110 on: January 29, 2019, 11:23:55 am »

The Japanese Upper House MP have 6 year terms and there are elections every 3 years so there are two separate classes of Upper House MPs (like the USA Senate have 3 classes.)  The current class up for re-election 2019 class have history of volatile "wave" like results. While the class that was elected in 2016 have a history of more muted results.

History of Class up for re-election in 2016
1992 - Standard LDP victory
1998 - Significant LDP setback
2004 - LDP-DPJ draw
2010 - Minor DPJ setback - Minor LDP victory
2016 - Minor LDP victory - DP revives

History of Class up for re-election in 2019
1989 - Major and unprecedented LDP defeat at the hands of SPJ-Rengo
1995 - Significant LDP setback at the hands of NPF
2001 - Major LDP and one can argue unprecedented LDP landslide victory
2007 - Major LDP setback at the hands of DPJ and allies
2013 - Significant LDP victory - DPJ nearly destroyed 
2019 - Huh

So other than the 1998 significant defeat of the LDP, all elections relating to the Class who are up for re-election in 2019 are wave elections and all wave elections are in the class who are up for re-election in 2019.

What is interesting is the 2019 election seems a lot like 2016 which is "wave-less."  Of course that could change between now and July.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #111 on: January 29, 2019, 01:39:10 pm »

Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I'm starting to wonder if there's some sort of unreported or inadequately-reported democratic backsliding on the level of voting rolls or freedom of the press or something going on in Japan. The repeated, clockwork-like LDP landslides at practically every level no matter what the Abe government is doing or has done lately are starting to get downright unsettling.
I think this has to do with Japanese Culture and Asian Values that value stability and continuity and shuns anything new/populist as well as a traditional bent towards conservatism/nationalism. Maybe our Chinese friend can give us more insight into that. Important to Remember that Japan never elected a Opposition Government until 1993.
Also Japanese still vividly remember the DPJ Government from 2009-2012 which, justifiably or not, is blamed for incompetence and economic mismanagement. So i think the reason why Japan is stubbornly refusing change, is not due to democratic backsliding but rather the lack of a convincing alternative.
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Nathan
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« Reply #112 on: January 29, 2019, 02:07:45 pm »

I'm not at all concerned by the repeated LDP victories. I'm beginning to be concerned by the repeated LDP landslides.

I'm sure voter apathy (which in Japan does have to do with the lack of a convincing alternative) is a big part of it, too, since I know the last several Japanese elections have all had very low turnout.
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jaichind
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« Reply #113 on: January 29, 2019, 04:17:52 pm »

As to why LDP always seems to win I will go back to what I wrote back in 2015

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=200118.msg4832320#msg4832320

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Since LDP success is built on strong local grassroots support there is no single point of failure of
being depending on one charismatic leader although having one also helps. 

As for why LDP seem to win in landslides that has to do with the FPTP system in Lower House election districts and enough 1- member districts in Upper House elections.  The anti-LDP oppistion are usually unable to unite around a common anti-LDP candidate.   What is especially positive for LDP is in Upper House multi-member districts is where LDP tend to be weaker but the multi-member district nature means the seat allocation is PR-like to ensure LDP and KP get their fair share.  It is 1- member rural districts where LDP tends to be strong and usually sweep.  In the Lower House LDP just sweep all rural districts since the LDP vote there are often above 50%.  In urban districts where the LDP is weaker various populist Right opposition parties are strong and they will have no truck with JCP or even CDP so the anti-LDP vote will be divided there.   
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Nathan
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« Reply #114 on: January 29, 2019, 04:39:46 pm »

When I was learning about contemporary Japanese social and political issues in the final year of my undergrad program in Japanese language and literature, we were presented with this "three Ks" understanding of what it takes to win elections in Japan. I think the "three Ks" were 金 (kane "money"), 鞄 (kaban "bag", referring to briefcases full of endorsements, contacts among preexisting politicians, ready-made policy manifestos and stump speeches, etc.), and 看板 (kanban "sign", referring to billboards, placards, posters, etc. that serve the function in Japan that TV, radio, and web advertising serve in America). LDP mastery of the "three Ks" was presented to us as a necessary and sufficient explanation for the tenacity of the party's grip on the Japanese political scene, but I guess at the time (2013-2014) it just wasn't quite clear yet exactly how locked-in Abe's hold on power was going to end up being over the course of this decade. I think part of this could have been that the DPJ's relatively strong showing in rural areas in 2009 had obscured how badly the opposition kept getting screwed by the placement of the single-member seats in years that weren't 2009.
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jaichind
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« Reply #115 on: January 29, 2019, 07:52:08 pm »

The nature of the 2014 and 2017 LDP Lower House landslides were a surprise.  It is not reasonable to go back to 2009 since that was a fluke.  On the other hand one would expect 2012 to be a fluke as well with the anti-LDP vote split down the middle between DPJ on the one hand and the JRP-YP on the other hand.  As JRP-YP declined you would have expected a more competitive landscape.  

I looked into this about a year ago after the 2017 Lower House elections when LDP won a large number of district seats.    I used 2003 as a calibration point.    2003 was a "normal" wave-less LDP-DPJ election. In that election DPJ-SDP won 106 out of 300 single member district seats.  While it was not a very large number it was enough to stop LDP-KP far away from 2/3 majority even as LDP-KP won 49.73% of the PR vote.  In 2017, between CDP HP JCP SDP LP and various pro-opposition independents only 59 single member districts were won out of 289 while JRP won 3 seats.    This gave LDP-KP a bare 2/3 majority despite the fact that LDP-KP PR vote share was 45.80%.

I looked at the seats DPJ-SDP won in 2003 and looked into which ones were won by LDP-KP BOTH in 2014 AND 2017 and found 59 such seats.  I looked into why and came up with these following reasons:

1) 2 - were won by DPJ in 2003 as flukes since it involved the LDP vote being split
2) 8 - are still competitive despite LDP winning both in 2014 and 2017 is quite winnable in the next election  
3) 2 - looks like the district swung pretty far to LDP without an obvious reason
4) 7 - Rise of JRP as a regional party split the anti-LDP vote and throw the races to LDP
5) 2 - Rise of JRP as regional party acted as a gateway drug for ex-DPJ voters to vote LDP even though JRP is not competitive
6) 13 - Northern Urban districts where the rise of Third pole parties (JRP and YP) acted as a gateway drug for ex-DPJ but now pro-Third Pole voters to vote LDP even as Third pole parties are not competitive
7) 2 - Southern Rural districts where the rise of Third pole parties (JRP and YP) acted as a gateway drug for ex-DPJ but now pro-Third Pole voters to vote LDP even as Third pole parties are not competitive
8  ) 23 - DPJ winners had some sort of LDP or pro-LDP background and are able to eat into the LDP vote base since many of them were from the great LDP civil war of 1993 but as they left the scene the district reverted

So the relative DPJ success in the 2000s itself was on large fluke based on LDP rebels that ate into the LDP vote and failure to grow a farm league of local prefecture level politicians PLUS the rise of Third Pole parties which split and even shifted anti-LDP votes produced the current world of LDP landslides.  
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #116 on: January 29, 2019, 08:21:03 pm »

Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I'm starting to wonder if there's some sort of unreported or inadequately-reported democratic backsliding on the level of voting rolls or freedom of the press or something going on in Japan. The repeated, clockwork-like LDP landslides at practically every level no matter what the Abe government is doing or has done lately are starting to get downright unsettling.
I think this has to do with Japanese Culture and Asian Values that value stability and continuity and shuns anything new/populist as well as a traditional bent towards conservatism/nationalism. Maybe our Chinese friend can give us more insight into that. Important to Remember that Japan never elected a Opposition Government until 1993.
Also Japanese still vividly remember the DPJ Government from 2009-2012 which, justifiably or not, is blamed for incompetence and economic mismanagement. So i think the reason why Japan is stubbornly refusing change, is not due to democratic backsliding but rather the lack of a convincing alternative.

It's way overstating this to call it "Asian values", btw. South Korea and Taiwan show clearly that other East Asian cultures, when in a democracy, have no compunction about throwing out the governing party. This would also be true if mainland China were a democracy. It's Japan specifically that has a very tradition-bound, hierarchical society that makes changes of power through democracy difficult and a permanent displacement of the "party of government" especially difficult. (The DPJ had the really bad luck of peaking right as the recession was taking hold, though.)
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jaichind
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« Reply #117 on: January 30, 2019, 05:26:46 pm »

The key for the opposition from being blown out in the 2019 Upper House elections by the LDP-KP is to form alliances in the 32 single member districts to take on LDP 1-on-1 much like it did in 2016 successfully.  This is critical this year since out of 32 such districts 29 of them have LDP incumbents which will be hard to knock off even in a favorable environment for the opposition.   

This process is harder this year than in 2016 since now we have two medium sized non-JCP opposition parties (CDP and DPP) that first have to come up with a common candidate and then work with JCP to get JCP to stand down.  In 2016 there was just one large opposition DP party and a bunch of micro parties like PLP (now LP) and SDP.  DPP having a separate identity and aligned with anti-JCP Rengo union makes DPP JCP talks harder.

Of course if you look at this chart of all known candidates it seems that some progress has been made even a lot more needs to be done.  The Right hand side are Center-Left opposition parities with light blue being CDP, Deep Blue being DDP and Red JCP.  Middle block are LDP-KP candidate, and the right side of the chart are Third Pole candidates (HP JRP etc etc).  The candidates are color coded according to likelihood of winning.
 

This chart list out the single member districts on what the non-JCP opposition have agreed to as common candidates with their party ID (CDP is light blue, DPP is deep blue, and independent is Grey).  What is not show is if the JCP has agreed to stand down yet.


It would be somewhat useful to go prefecture by prefecture.  First we have the 32 single member districts.

1) In 青森(Aomori) CDP-DPP has agreed to back a CDP candidate and work is ongoing with to get JCP candidate to stand down.  LDP will have the edge here but opposition has a chance.

2) In 岩手(Iwate) where it is Ozawa territory, JCP has preemptively stood down.  Working out the opposition candidate requires input from LP which has its hands full with DPP-LP merger so I guess the nature of the common opposition candidate will come later.  As long as all opposition parties work together LDP should be at a disadvantage here. 

3) In other Northern and fairly competitive prefecture like 宮城(Miyagi), 秋田(Akita), 山形(Yamagata), and 福島(Fukushima) DPP is stronger but CDP support is rising.  Since these seats are winnable CDP-DPP are still working on the common candidate before working with JCP to get them to stand down.  The LDP is beatable in all of them to different degrees but it will depend on the candidate and how to overcome historical poor relationships between JCP and opposition parities in this region.

4) In both 栃木(Tochigi) and 群馬(Gunma) CDP-DPP have agreed to support a CDP candidate and work is ongoing to get JCP to stand down.  Not sure it matters that much as either way LDP will win.

5) In 山梨(Yamanashi) which is competitive but the LDP just won a governor race by an unexpectedly large margin no common candidate have been agreed upon let alone talks with JCP to get JCP to stand down.

6) In 新潟(Niigata) which will be competitive no common opposition candidate have been agreed to but most likely willl be a CDP candidate.  JCP has already preemptively stood down as there is a very positive relationship between the JCP here and the other opposition parties.  If all opposition parties can unite behind a candidate the LDP might be at a disadvantage here.   

7) In 富山(Toyama) no common opposition candidate has emerged and the race is so hopeless very likely the opposition will hand the seat to JCP to run.

8 ) In 石川(Ishikawa) CDP-DPP has agreed to back a DPP candidate. Work ongoing to get JCP to step down.  Will not matter since LDP will win no matter what.

9) In 福井(Fukui) CDP-DPP has agreed in principle to back a "woman independent with a legal background" but no name has emerged let alone with talks with JCP to get them to stand down.  Will not matter as LDP will win no matter what.

10) In 長野(Nagano) it is simple since there is a DPP incumbent (in 2013 長野(Nagano) was a 2- member district) so he will be the common opposition candidate.  Problem here JCP is quite strong here and have a poor relationship with DPP so getting JCP to stand down would be hard but I guess doable.

11) In 岐阜(Gifu) CDP-DPP have agreed to support a CDP candidate and work is ongoing to get JCP to stand down.  Not sure it matters that much as either way LDP will win.

12) In 三重(Mie) CDP-DPP have agreed to support a regional Mie based party (which is more aligned with CDP) candidate.  Main problem here is the local Mie party is very hostile to JCP so it would be tough to get JCP on board.  As long as they do the LDP will be underdogs here.

13) In 滋賀(Shiga) is the most messed up one of all.  This prefecture is lean LDP but it is not clear how the JRP vote here will go so in theory if could be competitive.  Main problem here is the CDP and DPP are both equally strong here and both have nominated a candidate.  So they have to work that out first.  CDP is on the rise here and would say their candidate should be the common opposition candidate.  DPP says their candidate is an ex-governor and is also a strong candidate.  And we did not even get to the JCP standing down part yet.

14) In 奈良(Nara) and 和歌山(Wakayama) CDP-DPP have agreed to a common candidate in the form of an independent although the independent in 和歌山(Wakayama) has a DPP background. 
 They are still working on JCP standing down.  Depending on how the JRP vote goes 奈良(Nara) might be competitive but overall LDP will win no matter what in both prefectures.

15) In the single district but dual prefecture 鳥取(Tottori)/島根(Shimane) which is a strong LDP area, there are no common CDP-LDP candidate yet.   Most likely they might just hand this one to JCP since it is hopeless anyway.

16) In 岡山(Okayama) CDP-DPP have agreed to support a CDP candidate and work is ongoing to get JCP to stand down.  Not sure it matters that much as either way LDP will win even though this prefecture in the past had been competitive.

17) In Abe's home prefecture of 山口(Yamaguchi), CDP-DPP have agreed to support a DPP candidate and the JCP already preemptively stood down. Does not matter as LDP will win by a landslide one way or another.

18 ) In the single district but dual prefecture 徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi), there is no common CDP-DPP candidate.  JCP is strong in 高知(Kōchi) so they might be handed this district since it is hopeless anyway.

19) In 佐賀(Saga) there is no common CDP-DPP candidate yet but there are talk of this rural prefecture tiring of LDP so there is a tiny chance of upset.  Most likely they will come up with something and then try to work with JCP to stand down.

20) In both 長崎(Nagasaki) and 鹿児島(Kagoshima) CDP-DPP have agreed to support a DPP candidate and the JCP already preemptively stood down. Does not matter as LDP will win by a landslide one way or another.

21) In both 熊本(Kumamoto) and 大分(Ōita) CDP-DPP has agreed to support an independent while JCP already stood down.  大分(Ōita) is competitive under these circumstances but is at best tossup for opposition while 熊本(Kumamoto) will go LDP no matter what.

22) In 宮崎(Miyazaki) CDP-DPP did not work out a common candidate yet but JCP already have stood down.  Does not matter as LDP is going to win one way or another.

23) In 沖縄(Okinawa) a regional MSCP will run with support of all opposition parties including JCP.  The MSCP incumbent is not running so it will be close and will depend on how the JRP vote goes.  In the end due to the base issue the LDP should be underdogs.
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« Reply #118 on: January 30, 2019, 05:38:52 pm »
« Edited: April 22, 2019, 04:35:27 pm by urutzizu »

Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I'm starting to wonder if there's some sort of unreported or inadequately-reported democratic backsliding on the level of voting rolls or freedom of the press or something going on in Japan. The repeated, clockwork-like LDP landslides at practically every level no matter what the Abe government is doing or has done lately are starting to get downright unsettling.
I think this has to do with Japanese Culture and Asian Values that value stability and continuity and shuns anything new/populist as well as a traditional bent towards conservatism/nationalism. Maybe our Chinese friend can give us more insight into that. Important to Remember that Japan never elected a Opposition Government until 1993.
Also Japanese still vividly remember the DPJ Government from 2009-2012 which, justifiably or not, is blamed for incompetence and economic mismanagement. So i think the reason why Japan is stubbornly refusing change, is not due to democratic backsliding but rather the lack of a convincing alternative.

It's way overstating this to call it "Asian values", btw. South Korea and Taiwan show clearly that other East Asian cultures, when in a democracy, have no compunction about throwing out the governing party. This would also be true if mainland China were a democracy. It's Japan specifically that has a very tradition-bound, hierarchical society that makes changes of power through democracy difficult and a permanent displacement of the "party of government" especially difficult. (The DPJ had the really bad luck of peaking right as the recession was taking hold, though.)

I accept that this Idea of "Asian Values" of Communitarianism and Social conservatism mixed with obedience/trust of Authority is a quite controversial one, and probably worth its own thread.

As a Asian (albeit not east Asian) i personally found it a quite convincing one, especially when trying to explain the quite conservative Attitudes of my own Parents and the Parents of most of my Asian friends, in quite a stark contrast to the quite liberal and somewhat rebellious ones of me and my friends who grew up in the West.

I think that it can be used as *one* of many factors explaining why conservative Governments in Singapore, Japan and Malaysia (until 2018) have been consistently reelected despite accusations of Authoritarianism and Elitism. Similarly i think it is *one* of the reasons, next to a totalitarian surveillance State obviously, why there has never been a really mass protest movement in the Peoples Republic of China where, i think, most have accepted a tacit trade-off between economic growth and political rights.

Your Point about the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the Republic of Korea is correct but i would like to add that the election of Opposition/Liberal Governments in these Countries is a relatively new phenomena. A peaceful transfer of power to the liberal Opposition in these Countries only happened in 2000 and 1997 respectively. In Japan it was 1993. Of course both were authoritarian Military Dictatorships up until 1987/1988 but that they stuck with their previous rulers for a decade during democracy is quite telling. The influence of "Asian Values" in these Countries waned with the advent of the new Millennium and the era of Globalisation and the resulting massive spread of Western Values and Culture, allowing for the Election of more liberal "provocateurs" such as Kim Dae-Jung and Chen Shui-Bian.

Also i think the fact that both of them have presidential Systems, in contrast to Japan, Malaysia and Singapore, helped make changes in Power more frequent as such systems tend to favor confrontation and the development of two large alternating power blocs.
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« Reply #119 on: January 31, 2019, 11:06:06 am »
« Edited: February 02, 2019, 10:29:22 am by jaichind »

As far as the multi-member districts some are pretty interesting.

1) 北海道(Hokkaido) is a 3- member district.  It seems like none of the incumbants are running for re-election which is leading to a free-for all.  CDP, DPP and JCP will nominate one each.  LDP will nominate two.  JCP most likely will not get in so it will be a battle between DPP and LDP to see which one will win the third seat.  NPD might run as well which will throw off the balance of power between the two blocs.  All things equal LDP will most likely win 2 of the 3 seats due to better organization and vote allocation.

2) 埼玉(Saitama) is a 4- member district.  One of the ex-YP and now HP incumbent is not running for re-election so most likely this one will be boring where LDP KP CDP JCP will win one each and DPP as well as JRP will be the odd men out.

3) 神奈川(Kanagawa) is a 4- member district.  So now it is subdued but could really explode anytime.  LDP KP will nominate one each and the ex-YP now HP incumbent (also ex-governor) will run for re-election.  CDP DPP JCP will run one each and it seems SDP will also run a candidate as well.  On that basis it should be LDP KP CDP HP.   There are rumors that both CDP and LDP could nominate one more each which could lead to a free-for-all where either LDP or CDP could be wiped out with their votes being split but could also win 2 seats.  

4) 東京(Tokyo) is a 6- member district. It seems for now will be boring with 2 LDP, 1 KP, 1 JCP, 1 CDP, and 1 LP (to be DPP) winner.  Not sure if JRP will get into the act which could pose a threat to either LDP or LP/DPP if the candidate has strong personal appeal.  I am sure as the election gets closer there will be more surprises here.  

5) 愛知(Aichi) is a 4- member district.  It seems it will be boring with 1 LDP 1 KP 1 CDP 1 DPP winner.  An ex-YP incumbent will run as well JCP but neither are expected to get into the top 4.

6) 大阪(Osaka) is a 4- member district will be the most fun of all for now.  LDP and KP are expected to win 1 each and JRP on paper had the strength to win 2 seats.  But with the CDP surge and JRP not being what it used to be it is expected that JRP will most likely lose one to CDP.  But it seems that in addition to JCP running to split the non-LDP non-JRP vote, DPP will also run a candidate.  That provoked LDP to run a second candidate to try to cash in on the large scale split of the non-LDP vote.  This lowers the threshold of getting election to actually give JCP a chance.   So now we have 7 viable candidates (2 LDP, 1 KP, 2 JRP, 1 CDP, 1 JCP) and 1 semo-viable candidate (1 DPP) for 4 spots.  Anything can happen ranging from LDP winning 2 seats to being wiped out.  Same with JRP.

7) 兵庫(Hyōgo) is a 3- member district.  LDP and KP should win one each and it will be a battle between JRP and CDP for the third spot.

8 ) 京都(Kyoto) is a 2- member district.  LDP will win one and CDP should be able to beat back JCP to win the second seat.  DPP insisting on running a candidate now could split the non-LDP non-JCP vote to let in JCP in this fairly strong city for JCP.

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« Reply #120 on: February 02, 2019, 09:27:47 am »

JCP mouthpiece reports that there was a high level meeting of the heads of 5 parties and 1 bloc over how to share 1-member districts in Upper house elections in the Summer.  The 4 parties are JCP, CDP, DPP, SDP and LP and the 1 bloc is the ex-DP bloc (of around 7 Lower House MPs) led by ex-PM 野田 佳彦(Noda Yoshihiko).

 

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« Reply #121 on: February 03, 2019, 08:35:42 am »

Mainichi poll on PR section in July Upper House election

LDP  35%
CDP  14%
JCP    4%
KP     4%
JRP    4%
DPP   1%

2016 Jan Mainichi poll
LDP 36%   -> 2016 July PR result 35.91%
DPJ 10%   -> 2016 July DP PR result 20.98%
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« Reply #122 on: February 03, 2019, 08:50:56 am »

Summery of recent media polls on PR section for July Upper House

             Asahi    Yomiuri     Sankei    Mainichi       Average
LDP          41         40          39.3         35             38.8
CDP         15          12          14.5        14             13.9
DPP           2           1            1.9          1               1.5
KP             5           4            4.1          4               4.3
JCP           5           5            3.4           4               4.4
JRP           4           2            2.7           4               3.2
LP             2          1             0.5         NA               1.2
HP            1          0             0.5          NA              0.5
SDP          1          1             1.1          NA              1.0
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« Reply #123 on: February 04, 2019, 10:31:54 am »

I think this has to do with Japanese Culture and Asian Values that value stability and continuity and shuns anything new/populist as well as a traditional bent towards conservatism/nationalism. Maybe our Chinese friend can give us more insight into that. Important to Remember that Japan never elected a Opposition Government until 1993.
Also Japanese still vividly remember the DPJ Government from 2009-2012 which, justifiably or not, is blamed for incompetence and economic mismanagement. So i think the reason why Japan is stubbornly refusing change, is not due to democratic backsliding but rather the lack of a convincing alternative.

I put some thought into this and found that a variation of "stability" to play a role although only in conjunction with other features of the Japanese lower house election system.  Namely incumbency does play a role and incumbent tend to over-perform in Japan which you argue is part of the "stability" thesis since the LDP is the natural party of governance so a LDP candidate is more likely to be the incumbent.

In many ways the 1993 reform to create FPTP seats for Lower House elections was suppose to create two parties of equal strength that alternate in power (just like USA.)    But the incumbency  advantage plus some aspects of the election system is delaying and even preventing this outcome. Namely the PR section of the election system which include the "Best Loser" section where a candidate can be dual listed as a district candidate and on the PR slate and seat allocated on the PR slate based on "Best Loser" sequence.  The most obvious thesis of the PR section is that it lets micro-parties like SDP and LP stick around to win a few seats where if the PR section did not exist these parties would have merged into the main center-left opposition party years ago.   

But me digging into this as I am building out my model for the next lower house election as I regress across several different variable  has led to other discoveries, namely: The incumbency advantage extends to the district loser but revived on the PR slate as a "best loser."  Namely if a candidate lost a district election but kept it close enough tends to be very competitive in the next district race and pretty much erases the incumbency advantage of the previous winner.

This dynamic plus the existence of the PR slate has created the following mutually reinforcing dynamics if Japanese Lower House races
a) As mentioned before small opposition parities have reasons to stick around to try to capture PR seats

b) JCP wants to get its message out there so it has an incentive to run everywhere and of course split the anti-LDP vote

c) Opposition parities has an incentive to run candidates in district seats in order to push up their PR vote to get seats and along the way split the anti-LDP vote

d) In Any district, the opposition parties are in a desperate race against each other to do well enough so they become a "Best Loser" PR winner so they become competitive with LDP exit election.  An example would be assume the result of a district election
LDP                 45%
Opposition A    25%
Opposition B    20%
JCP                 10%

Here in theory Opposition party B should stand down to take on LDP.  But beyond Opposition party B trying to max out its PR vote by having a candidate run but it is fearful that if Opposition party A does well enough to make its candidate a "Best Loser" PR seat MP then the next election will become
LDP                45%
Opposition A   35%
Opposition B   10%
JCP                 10%

Where Opposition party B becomes marginalized and its PR vote share will shrink.  As a result both A and B will go all out to max out its vote share and even prevent the other opposition party from doing well enough to make it into the "Best Lower" PR winner.

e) Since LDP wins most FPTP seats anyway then pretty much ALL LDP candidates that run in district seats are elected since the LDP PR vote is high enough that most LDP district losers will be elected on the PR slate.  What this means is that next election the LDP loser is really an incumbent  as well and nullifies the opposition winner incumbency advantage   

f) Of course the opposite of e) is that since opposition parities win so few FPTP seats a large number of opposition district losers will have to fight each other for a slice of the PR "Best Loser" seats available with many opposition losers not making it on the PR slate and have to face a LDP incumbency advantage next election.

g) For an LDP inducement his only threat then is if his main opponent can do well enough to make it onto the PR slate of "Best Lower" winners so that  opposition candidate can nullify his incumbency advantage next election.  So what does the LDP candidate do? He goes all out to win by a massive margin so his opponent does not do well enough to become a PR list winner.  But that has the effect of pushing up LDP turnout  and getting more LDP PR seats at the expense of opposition PR slots which are so vital to get the opposition to be competitive in district seats overall.

To some extent the 2017 election saw the opposition came up with strategies to counteract this dynamic.  It seems the way the opposition can slowly erode this LDP self-reinforcing advantage is the try to gain more PR seats,  Having CDP and HP run separately on PR to appeal to different segments of the anti-LDP vote but then to have tactical understanding in many seats is a way to slowing erode this LDP built in advantage.  It will take a long time though.  In the end the LDP will just have to mess up like in 2007-2009 to lose power.  In the meantime the opposition  can only come up with workaround to erode this built in advantage. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #124 on: February 07, 2019, 08:54:14 am »

Asahi magazine came out with two projections from their political analysts for Upper House elections

 

One of them most assumes that joint opposition candidates run as independents 
         District    PR    Total    Implied PR vote
LDP      35        20      55              38.3%
KP         7          6       13             11.5%
CDP       7          7      14              13.4%
DPP       7          7      14              13.4%
JCP        2          6       8               11.5%
JRP        1          3       4                5.7%
SDP       0          1        1               1.9%
HP         0          0        0               1.4%
LP          1         0        1               1.4%
Ind        1                   1
OPPN    13                 13           (Opposition joint candidates)

The other assumes that most joint opposition candidates will run with party label
         District    PR    Total    Implied PR vote
LDP      35        17      52              32.5%
KP         7          6       13             11.5%
CDP     16        14      30              26.8%
DPP       8          4      12                7.7%
JCP        3          6       9               11.5%
JRP        2          2       4                3.8%
SDP       0          1        1               1.9%
HP         0          0        0               1.4%
LP          1         0        1               1.4%
Ind        2                   1
 
The two mostly agrees on district seats but differs greatly on the PR vote.  I think both underestimate KP PR vote unless both expect a very high turnout election.  In which case both overestimate JCP PR vote.

The magazine also came out with a Lower House election projection where LDP will lose over 40 seats and be close to losing absolute majority. 


As mentioned before at this stage most projections tend to be negative on LDP just to sell more magazines.   EVERYONE expects LDP to do well so a negative project will raise eyebrows and get people to buy the magazine to read what is unexpected.  These magazines played the same game before the 2016 Upper House elections and the 2017 Lower House elections.  About two weeks before the elections are when the REAL (and more pro-LDP) projections come out.
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