LA Gov-JBE is closing in on 57%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tegbridges/status/1159927415788974080?s=21

[Senator Incitatus]

Great news!

[ON Progressive]

That would basically be his 2015 margin.

I wonder what it would look like nowadays. I can't see him winning, like, Allen Parish or something nowadays though.

[Frenchrepublican]

Great news!

You’re backing a democrat ?!

[Storr]

Great news!

You’re backing a democrat ?!

That was my thought as well.

[Bojack Horseman]

Great news!

You’re backing a democrat ?!

That was my thought as well.

JBE is a Republican with a D after his name. This guy signed a complete and total ban on abortion after all.

[pops]

Make it 65% and we're good

[One Term Floridian]

Great news!

You’re backing a democrat ?!

That was my thought as well.

JBE is a Republican with a D after his name. This guy signed a complete and total ban on abortion after all.

Yeah and about as generic of a Democrat in just about every other issue. So I wouldn’t call him a DINO lol

[Frenchrepublican]

Great news!

You’re backing a democrat ?!

That was my thought as well.

JBE is a Republican with a D after his name. This guy signed a complete and total ban on abortion after all.

Yeah and about as generic of a Democrat in just about every other issue. So I wouldn’t call him a DINO lol

This.

[Politician]

RIP ShadowOfTheWave

[RI]

It would be quite lovely if he could clear 60%. Not counting on it, of course.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump weakness in these Southern Gubernatorial contests spells defeat for his Southern Strategy in 2020. With Southern OH and IA which was golden for hin in 2016, doesnt bode well

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Great news!

You’re backing a democrat ?!

That was my thought as well.

JBE is a Republican with a D after his name. This guy signed a complete and total ban on abortion after all.

Yeah and about as generic of a Democrat in just about every other issue. So I wouldn’t call him a DINO lol

He loves the prisons (and private healthcare iirc?). Very generic Dixiecrat.

[Gass3268]

A JBE win could probably force the state to draw a second Democratic/African American district. One centered around New Orleans and the other Baton Rouge.

[DINGO Joe]

Great news!

You’re backing a democrat ?!

That was my thought as well.

JBE is a Republican with a D after his name. This guy signed a complete and total ban on abortion after all.

Yeah and about as generic of a Democrat in just about every other issue. So I wouldn’t call him a DINO lol

He loves the prisons (and private healthcare iirc?). Very generic Dixiecrat.

He did the whole prison reform thing

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/crime_police/article_a5c01e10-7ad9-11e8-856e-ebf326bf26bc.html

The state has seen a 20 percent decrease in the number of people imprisoned for nonviolent crimes and a 42 percent decrease in those sent to prison for drug possession.  Actually fell behind OK for highest incarceration rate.   Also got rid of Louisiana being the only state that could convict without a unanimous jury (via Constitutional amendment).

Probably will make him a little more unpopular in rural areas since that's where all the prison are.

I could see JBE lose a little ground in rural areas (which are pretty racially divided anyway) and run better in Jefferson and St. Tammany.

[One Term Floridian]

Great news!

You’re backing a democrat ?!

That was my thought as well.

JBE is a Republican with a D after his name. This guy signed a complete and total ban on abortion after all.

Yeah and about as generic of a Democrat in just about every other issue. So I wouldn’t call him a DINO lol

He loves the prisons (and private healthcare iirc?). Very generic Dixiecrat.

He did the whole prison reform thing

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/crime_police/article_a5c01e10-7ad9-11e8-856e-ebf326bf26bc.html

The state has seen a 20 percent decrease in the number of people imprisoned for nonviolent crimes and a 42 percent decrease in those sent to prison for drug possession.  Actually fell behind OK for highest incarceration rate.   Also got rid of Louisiana being the only state that could convict without a unanimous jury (via Constitutional amendment).

Probably will make him a little more unpopular in rural areas since that's where all the prison are.

I could see JBE lose a little ground in rural areas (which are pretty racially divided anyway) and run better in Jefferson and St. Tammany.

JBE almost certain to lose ground in rural areas, but likely to gain ground in the suburbs. Just how things are trending nowadays for Dems almost everywhere in the country. He should do particularly fantastic in the NOLA suburbs that actually swung to Hillary in 2016

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The state has seen a 20 percent decrease in the number of people imprisoned for nonviolent crimes and a 42 percent decrease in those sent to prison for drug possession.  Actually fell behind OK for highest incarceration rate.   Also got rid of Louisiana being the only state that could convict without a unanimous jury (via Constitutional amendment).

Thanks for the update! Last I recall, the left was outraged about the whole hate crime against police business before the abortion business so I poorly assumed that this was a natural extension of support for the prisons. Surprised to hear about all that progress.

[UncleSam]

I mean red states should elect Dem governors who agree with the people on social issues in order to provide a moderating presence on the legislature, just like blue states should (and do, such as in MA, VT, or MD). It isn’t surprising Republicans would back JBE for this race but may not for, for example, a senate race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MD has loss alot of population due to migration to SW. To states like Cali, AZ and CO. This is why it has trended more R at the statewide level. Hopefully, Rashurn Baker runs in 2022

[Badger]

Great news!

You’re backing a democrat ?!

That was my thought as well.

JBE is a Republican with a D after his name. This guy signed a complete and total ban on abortion after all.

Yeah and about as generic of a Democrat in just about every other issue. So I wouldn’t call him a DINO lol

This.

[Skill and Chance]

I mean red states should elect Dem governors who agree with the people on social issues in order to provide a moderating presence on the legislature, just like blue states should (and do, such as in MA, VT, or MD). It isn’t surprising Republicans would back JBE for this race but may not for, for example, a senate race.

Speaking of which, Republicans are now guaranteed to pick up 4 seats in the lower house of the state legislature (2 from Democrats and 2 from Independents) because only Republicans filed for those seats.   If Democrats lose any more than 2 seats, a group of Independents will determine if vetoes are sustained.  If Republicans pick up 5 more seats this fall, they will have a 2/3rds majority to override vetoes.  Clinton won 32 of the seats.  There is 1 Clinton Republican, 1 Clinton Independent, and 7 Trump Democrat seats left after these flips.  However, it's also possible some narrower Trump districts in the Baton Rouge or New Orleans suburbs could flip the other way.

In the state senate, Republicans are only 1 seat below 2/3rds.  A conservative Democrat surprisingly won a district in 2015 that is now 60%+ Trump and there are other rural conservative Dem seats, so it is already likely the state senate will become veto-proof before redistricting. 

Even if JBE wins comfortably, it's going to be a close call whether he gets to veto 2021 redistricting.