Newfoundland and Labrador election, 2019

[the506]

The countdown is on in Newfoundland. Dwight Ball says the election will be held before the end of the school year in late June:

http://vocm.com/news/provincial-election-will-be-over-before-end-of-school-year-premier/

Polls show a close Liberal-PC race, Ches Crosbie (John's son) won the provincial Tory leadership last year. The NDP is in disarray after Gerry Rogers stepped down as leader after less than a year; failed 2015 candidate Allison Coffin was acclaimed in a hastily called convention earlier this month.

[lilTommy]

http://ntv.ca/mqo-poll-finds-economy-health-care-as-top-issues-middling-opinions-of-party-leaders/?fbclid=IwAR3ldrXo19iY78raSJzYvweHlwQAsWfX5NHrNBLRi4cslkf_wpf2wzAidqA

The NDP has a long way to rebuild, in Feb 2018 they were at 24%, vs the last polling from Feb 2019 which has them at 16%. But the above news story/MQO polling has NDP leader Coffin polling better then Ball or Crosbie in all of the indicators.

[adma]

The NDP has a long way to rebuild, in Feb 2018 they were at 24%, vs the last polling from Feb 2019 which has them at 16%.

Which, compared to NB and PEI, still isn't that bad.

[Krago]

The last Newfoundland and Labrador election was November 30, 2015.  Why is Ball calling it so early?  There's still plenty of time to re-draw their electoral districts.

[DC Al Fine]

The last Newfoundland and Labrador election was November 30, 2015.  Why is Ball calling it so early?  There's still plenty of time to re-draw their electoral districts.

I think he doesn't want to call an election right after the federal one wraps up, especially if things don't go well for the federal Liberals.

[the506]

Dwight Ball is also testifying in July at an inquiry over cost overruns at the Muskrat Falls dam project, which has doubled power bills in the province. He might want to get the election wrapped up before any political damage is done.

[RogueBeaver]

May 15 is the date.

[Smid]

Has there been any change to the provincial electoral boundaries? Do I need to pull together a new base map?

[beesley]

One of the more interesting races will be in St John's East-Quidi Vidi. Lorraine Michael, the former NDP leader is not seeking re-election, and 6 weeks into her job as leader, Alison Coffin is standing there. It should be a hold for her, given there will be a slight swing to the NDP from the Liberals if polls are correct, but George Murphy, the former NDP MHA for part of the riding is a Liberal star candidate. They're likely to lose the other riding, previously held by Gerry Rogers.

There are definitely a few ridings the PCs could (and I suspect, should) gain, including Terra Nova, Mount Pearl-Southlands and Exploits. If the NDP have a good night, then although PEI may lose a Jordan Brown from its legislature, the NLHA might gain one in Labrador West, which is the only seat in Labrador the Liberals could realistically lose in my view. They shouldn't however. Candidates matter a lot in these sorts of ridings.

[mileslunn]

I think it is a foregone conclusion Liberals will lose seats and PCs will gain, its more a question is the shift big enough to put the PCs in power or does it just result in a reduced Liberal majority.  Usually most landslide elections tend to result in some regression to the mean so Liberals losing seats even if they win handidly again is no surprise as 2015 was in many ways a highwater mark.  NDP seems to be quite weak, but I still think there is a good chance they win a few seats as they will probably put all their efforts into the winneable ridings rather than campaign province wide, but if things get polarized enough much like they did in Alberta, could face a shutout.  Since it looks like PEI will result in a Liberal loss, if Liberals lose here, that means Trudeau going into the fall election will only have two Liberal premiers, Nova Scotia and Yukon.  If PCs win here, that means 7 small c conservative governments (this assumes Greens win in PEI, if PCs pull off an upset than and 6 governments opposed to the carbon tax.  I believe Ches Crosbie is opposed to it but not sure if he will join the other five in fighting it in court or not.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/GerriLynnMackey/status/1121053598870310913

[Hatman 🍁]

Deadline for nominations today, and so far the NDP have nominated a grand total of...  five candidates.

What the actual f**k? They could've been competitive this time...

[brucejoel99]

Deadline for nominations today, and so far the NDP have nominated a grand total of...  five candidates.

What the actual f**k? They could've been competitive this time...

For a party that nominated a candidate in every riding as recent as just the last election, this is sadder than sad. It's stupidly sad.

[lilTommy]

Deadline for nominations today, and so far the NDP have nominated a grand total of...  five candidates.

What the actual f**k? They could've been competitive this time...

What's the Why here? early election call? New leaders? sad though, really sad.. here's hoping they can get 35 nominations in, today P

[Hatman 🍁]

A combination of an early election call, and a new leader are probably to blame.

Newfoundland is supposed to have fixed election dates, so a bit of a dick move by Dwight Ball to call the election this early.

[Hatman 🍁]

According to Wikipedia, the Tories don't have a full slate either (though this will probably change). If they can't find a candidate in Burgeo-La Poile or Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair, the Liberals there will be acclaimed. Should note that those are among the safest Liberal seats in the province. They won 97%(!) and 93% respectively in those ridings in 2015.

The PCs also don't have candidates in Humber-Bay of Islands and Labrador West, but incumbent Eddie Joyce is running as an independent in the former, and Lab West has an NDP candidate.

[DC Al Fine]

The Newfoundland NDP has also been suffering from infighting off and on, since 2011, going through several leaders in that span. That isn't conducive to building up EDA's and the other party infrastructure, which might negated the effects of a new leader and early election call, especially in a place like Newfoundland where the party doesn't have deep roots.

Deadline for nominations today, and so far the NDP have nominated a grand total of...  five candidates.

What the actual f**k? They could've been competitive this time...

NL Alliance (a Tory Splinter) is running more candidates than the NDP. With neither of their incumbents running again, there's an outside chance of them getting shut out of the legislature. What a joke.

[DC Al Fine]

I know it's a snap election, but they only called the election six months early or so. Shouldn't the parties have most of their slates ready by now? I know the federal Tories either have candidates or nominations scheduled in nearly 300 ridings already, and the time to election day is similar.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is notoriously slow when it comes to doing nominations.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, the NDP found 8 more candidates, for a grand total of 13. Pitiful.

The Tories couldn't get a candidate for Waterford Valley, but at least the NDP has one there. Oddly enough, it went PC as recently as 2011 (when it was St. John's South, they won 58% of the vote there and 80% in 2007).

[lilTommy]

Looks like the NDP managed to get 14 Nominations out... well that's something:

http://www.nl.ndp.ca/news/nl-ndp-announces-candidates-for-provincial-election?fbclid=IwAR0v_M69XKAIOnlDGjWmWtdSiUtnl_QtogJ9bYLr_tx3TKVoKCXoto0z7Uk

Looks like only 3 candidates though, are not on the Avalon:
Corner Brook, Humber – Bay of Islands, Labrador West (the only realistic seat of the bunch i'd guess)

Mount Pearl North
Mount Pearl – Southlands
Mount Scio --- (MAYBE, NDP was at 27% in 2015, second)
St. John’s Centre --- (NDP should HOLD)
St. John’s East – Quidi Vidi --- (NDP should HOLD)
St. John’s West --- (MAYBE, but 2015 NDP leader ran here so probably bumped up some)
Virginia Waters – Pleasantville
Waterford Valley --- in 2015, Allison Coffin was the candidate. PCs only won 14%, NDP 19%
Windsor Lake --- PC Leaders seat so NO

2-5 Seats for the NDP, best case

[Hatman 🍁]

Elections NL only shows 13: https://www.elections.gov.nl.ca/elections/resources/pdf/releases/NR%20-%20Officially%20Nominated%20Candidates%20for%20the%202019%20Provincial%20General%20Election.pdf

No candidate in Mount Pearl North.

Fewest NDP candidates since 1972, when they ran 4, winning 0.2% of the vote!

The last poll had the NDP at 16%, which is actually better than they did last election! But, obviously not having that many candidates will hurt their numbers. I do wonder how pollsters will treat this situation; most voters won't have an NDP candidate on the ballot, but you still need to ask, as they can still win seats in St. John's.

[lilTommy]

Elections NL only shows 13: https://www.elections.gov.nl.ca/elections/resources/pdf/releases/NR%20-%20Officially%20Nominated%20Candidates%20for%20the%202019%20Provincial%20General%20Election.pdf

No candidate in Mount Pearl North.

Fewest NDP candidates since 1972, when they ran 4, winning 0.2% of the vote!

The last poll had the NDP at 16%, which is actually better than they did last election! But, obviously not having that many candidates will hurt their numbers. I do wonder how pollsters will treat this situation; most voters won't have an NDP candidate on the ballot, but you still need to ask, as they can still win seats in St. John's.

NDP better update their site/news release then!

If there is any positive, this allows the NDP to focus their volunteers/resources (at least in Labrador West, their only candidate in Labrador!) and bring in volunteers from outside of the Avalon to work in the other 10 seats with Candidates.
AND they nominated more then NL Alliance, so there ya go

[Hatman 🍁]

Elections NL made an error, it will be 14 after all. Huzzah!

[DC Al Fine]

Elections NL made an error, it will be 14 after all. Huzzah!

They beat the Alliance after all. Man, the election results are going to look like something out of the 1950's.