Newfoundland and Labrador election, 2019

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Newfies is o/c the only postcommunist polity in North America. Such a strange history.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum:

42-40-13

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/3378d018-a80f-4817-9ae5-c18fc55e51cbNL%20Issues_May%208th%202019_final.pdf

[DL]

Forum:

42-40-13

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/3378d018-a80f-4817-9ae5-c18fc55e51cbNL%20Issues_May%208th%202019_final.pdf

Their seat projection says the PCs will get 19 seats, the Liberals 18 seats and the NDP 3 seats...if that happened it could be another BC or NB situation

[beesley]

Because why not? Here's a projection.

Liberal 21
PC 18
NDP 1

1   Cape St Francis   PC Hold
2   Carbonear-Trinity-Bay de Verde   Liberal Hold
3   Conception Bay East   PC Hold
4   Conception Bay South   PC Hold
5   Ferryland   PC Hold
6   Harbour Grace-Port de Grave   PC Gain
7   Harbour Main   PC Gain
8   Mount Pearl North   PC Hold
9   Mount Pearl-Southlands   PC Gain
10   Mount Scio   PC Gain
11   Placentia-St Mary's   Liberal Hold
12   St John's Centre   NDP Hold
13   St John's East-Quidi Vidi   Liberal Gain
14   St John's West   Liberal Hold
15   Topsail-Paradise   PC Hold
16   Virginia Waters-Pleasantville   PC Gain
17   Waterford Valley   Liberal Hold
18   Windsor Lake   PC Hold
19   Baie Verte   PC Gain
20   Bonavista   Liberal Hold
21   Burin-Grand Bank   PC Gain
22   Exploits   PC Gain
23   Fogo Island-Cape Freels   Liberal Hold
24   Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune   PC Hold
25   Gander   Liberal Hold
26   Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans   Liberal Hold
27   Lewisporte-Twillingate   PC Gain
28   Placentia West-Bellevue   Liberal Hold
29   Terra Nova   PC Gain
30   Burgeo-La Poile   Liberal Hold
31   Corner Brook   Liberal Hold
32   Humber-Bay of Islands   Liberal Hold
33   Humber-Gros Morne   Liberal Hold
34   St Barbe-L'Anse aux Meadows   Liberal Hold
35   St George's-Humber   Liberal Hold
36   Stephenville-Port au Port   Liberal Hold
37   Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair   Liberal Hold
38   Labrador West   Liberal Hold
39   Lake Melville   Liberal Hold
40   Torngat Mountains   Liberal Hold

[RogueBeaver]

Geoff Stevens says party polling matches Abacus, with Tories up 5% or so with desire for change at 67%, but cautions minority very possible.

[Hatman 🍁]

A minority is very unlikely if the NDP wins just 1-2 seats.

[the506]

32   Humber-Bay of Islands   Liberal Hold

FYI...incumbent MHA Eddie Joyce is running as an independent and according to local media, in all likelihood he will be re-elected.

[beesley]

32   Humber-Bay of Islands   Liberal Hold

FYI...incumbent MHA Eddie Joyce is running as an independent and according to local media, in all likelihood he will be re-elected.

I can believe that, it was the projection I was least sure on.

[brucejoel99]

Something tells me a Liberal minority government is the most plausible outcome.

Yeah, the polls may have the PC's slightly ahead (or in a statistical tie), but the Liberals have the advantage of incumbency in a lot of districts, with MHA's who are popular in their districts. So I'm thinking a Liberal minority government, with only a few seats separating them & the PCs. PC's make their gains in east/central rural NL, & keep suburban St. John's. Liberals hold west/Labrador, & pick up a few seats in St. John's proper.

Also, an unstable minority government means it's back to the polls in the fall.

[Hatman 🍁]

How can a minority government be "the most plausible outcome" when the NDP+Independents will be lucky to win more than 2 seats combined?

[beesley]

Final projection with only one change, as suggest by @the506

Liberal 20
PC 18
NDP 1
Independent Liberal 1

1   Cape St Francis   PC Hold
2   Carbonear-Trinity-Bay de Verde   Liberal Hold
3   Conception Bay East   PC Hold
4   Conception Bay South   PC Hold
5   Ferryland   PC Hold
6   Harbour Grace-Port de Grave   PC Gain
7   Harbour Main   PC Gain
8   Mount Pearl North   PC Hold
9   Mount Pearl-Southlands   PC Gain
10   Mount Scio   PC Gain
11   Placentia-St Mary's   Liberal Hold
12   St John's Centre   NDP Hold
13   St John's East-Quidi Vidi   Liberal Gain
14   St John's West   Liberal Hold
15   Topsail-Paradise   PC Hold
16   Virginia Waters-Pleasantville   PC Gain
17   Waterford Valley   Liberal Hold
18   Windsor Lake   PC Hold
19   Baie Verte   PC Gain
20   Bonavista   Liberal Hold
21   Burin-Grand Bank   PC Gain
22   Exploits   PC Gain
23   Fogo Island-Cape Freels   Liberal Hold
24   Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune   PC Hold
25   Gander   Liberal Hold
26   Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans   Liberal Hold
27   Lewisporte-Twillingate   PC Gain
28   Placentia West-Bellevue   Liberal Hold
29   Terra Nova   PC Gain
30   Burgeo-La Poile   Liberal Hold
31   Corner Brook   Liberal Hold
32   Humber-Bay of Islands   Independent Gain
33   Humber-Gros Morne   Liberal Hold
34   St Barbe-L'Anse aux Meadows   Liberal Hold
35   St George's-Humber   Liberal Hold
36   Stephenville-Port au Port   Liberal Hold
37   Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair   Liberal Hold
38   Labrador West   Liberal Hold
39   Lake Melville   Liberal Hold
40   Torngat Mountains   Liberal Hold

[DL]

12   St John's Centre   NDP Hold
13   St John's East-Quidi Vidi   Liberal Gain

What's the rationale behind predicting that the NDP would hold St. John's Centre - which they have only held since 2011 and where the new candidate is not the leader - but that they would lose St. John's East-Quidi Vidi - which has been an NDP seat since 1993 and where the leader is running - and she seems to have done well in the leaders debate etc...?

FWIW, the final poll by Mainstreet has NDP support in the St. John's area at 24% - which would actually be an improvement over what they got in 2015 while the Liberals have dropped and the PCs have gained...in that context its hard to see the Liberals gaining any seats from anyone

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet:
45-41-8

Quito is predicting 2 Indies and on NDP elected.

Oh, and 22 Libs and 15 PCs.

[DL]

Mainstreet:
45-41-8

Quito is predicting 2 Indies and on NDP elected.

Oh, and 22 Libs and 15 PCs.

Quito's predictions at the riding level are pretty crappy. He predicted every seat in Alberta and in several he was off by a mile!

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet:
45-41-8

Quito is predicting 2 Indies and on NDP elected.

Oh, and 22 Libs and 15 PCs.

Quito's predictions at the riding level are pretty crappy. He predicted every seat in Alberta and in several he was off by a mile!

To be fair, he was very good in the Ontario election. I didn't follow his Alberta predictions that closely, but I loled at him predicting the Liberals would win Mountainview (they came a distant 4th with 6% of the vote). Our internals didn't give him a chance. I suspect he is over-predicting the Liberals here as well.

[lilTommy]

I still believe that the NDP will hold St. John's East - Quidi Vidi and St. John's Centre, especially if they are polling higher then 2015 in SJs.

I'm hopeful they can also win Labrador West, but that's a hopeful prediction.
Mount Scio is my long-shot prediction; Went NDP in 2011 (Dale Kirby bolted to the Liberals and was re-elected in 2015) some of the NDP-Kirby vote might migrate back, might.

Waterford Valley would be a surprise BUT this is a two-horse race with the Liberals and NDP, don't see that very often so, could surprise people if there is enough anti-Liberal, Anti-gov vote.

[DL]

Mainstreet:
45-41-8

Quito is predicting 2 Indies and on NDP elected.

Oh, and 22 Libs and 15 PCs.

Quito's predictions at the riding level are pretty crappy. He predicted every seat in Alberta and in several he was off by a mile!

To be fair, he was very good in the Ontario election. I didn't follow his Alberta predictions that closely, but I loled at him predicting the Liberals would win Mountainview (they came a distant 4th with 6% of the vote). Our internals didn't give him a chance. I suspect he is over-predicting the Liberals here as well.

Ontario ridings are big enough that they can be polled and mainstreet did a gazillion riding polls. Provincial ridings in NL are extremely small and each have about one sixth the population of an Ontario riding. Its virtually impossible to draw any kind of an accurate sample in such a small electorate and with response rates to IVR polls being so low - a riding poll that mainstreet would do in NL - likels is a poll of 30-40 old people with landlines...

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet:
45-41-8

Quito is predicting 2 Indies and on NDP elected.

Oh, and 22 Libs and 15 PCs.

Quito's predictions at the riding level are pretty crappy. He predicted every seat in Alberta and in several he was off by a mile!

To be fair, he was very good in the Ontario election. I didn't follow his Alberta predictions that closely, but I loled at him predicting the Liberals would win Mountainview (they came a distant 4th with 6% of the vote). Our internals didn't give him a chance. I suspect he is over-predicting the Liberals here as well.

Ontario ridings are big enough that they can be polled and mainstreet did a gazillion riding polls. Provincial ridings in NL are extremely small and each have about one sixth the population of an Ontario riding. Its virtually impossible to draw any kind of an accurate sample in such a small electorate and with response rates to IVR polls being so low - a riding poll that mainstreet would do in NL - likels is a poll of 30-40 old people with landlines...

Did they even do riding polling?

We did some riding polls back in 2015; I think we had 100-150 completes in each. Newfoundland has the lowest cell phone only household rate in the country, which helps with this kind of thing (a huge contrast to Alberta, which is approaching 50% cell phones!).

[BigSkyBob]

May 15 is the date.

May 16th?

[beesley]

12   St John's Centre   NDP Hold
13   St John's East-Quidi Vidi   Liberal Gain

What's the rationale behind predicting that the NDP would hold St. John's Centre - which they have only held since 2011 and where the new candidate is not the leader - but that they would lose St. John's East-Quidi Vidi - which has been an NDP seat since 1993 and where the leader is running - and she seems to have done well in the leaders debate etc...?

FWIW, the final poll by Mainstreet has NDP support in the St. John's area at 24% - which would actually be an improvement over what they got in 2015 while the Liberals have dropped and the PCs have gained...in that context its hard to see the Liberals gaining any seats from anyone

It's mostly due to the localised politics there with George Murphy, plus I've compensated for the Liberal loss by predicting them as having lost Mount Scio, which most people have as Liberal. That would bring it in line with expected support/polling averages. But I see what you're saying, I have less confidence in these projections than some of my others.

[brucejoel99]

How can a minority government be "the most plausible outcome" when the NDP+Independents will be lucky to win more than 2 seats combined?

"[L]ucky to win more than 2 seats combined" is a bit melodramatic lol

It's not hard to see the NDP holding onto both their districts, with Coffin retaining the most orange seat in the province & the NDP holding onto a pretty urban area. That's 2 seats right there.

Independent-wise, Paul Lane can hold onto Mount Pearl-Southlands, & re: Joyce, I think name recognition & length of service will end up outweighing partisanship & political scandal, imo.

So, 2 NDP, 2 Indys; say the Libs walk out of election night with 19 seats to the PC's 17: boom, minority government.

[RogueBeaver]

Forum has 47/38/7 with PCs winning 24 seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

How can a minority government be "the most plausible outcome" when the NDP+Independents will be lucky to win more than 2 seats combined?

"[L]ucky to win more than 2 seats combined" is a bit melodramatic lol

It's not hard to see the NDP holding onto both their districts, with Coffin retaining the most orange seat in the province & the NDP holding onto a pretty urban area. That's 2 seats right there.

Independent-wise, Paul Lane can hold onto Mount Pearl-Southlands, & re: Joyce, I think name recognition & length of service will end up outweighing partisanship & political scandal, imo.

So, 2 NDP, 2 Indys; say the Libs walk out of election night with 19 seats to the PC's 17: boom, minority government.

At this point, I admit the NDP+Ind seat total max is 4 (most likely it will be 2-3 imo), but still, that's not enough to make a minority the most plausible outcome. Even with a tie PV. One party usually has a geographic advantage. Look at the 1989 election. Essentially it was a tied PV, but the Liberals won a 10 seat majority. 

[beesley]

How can a minority government be "the most plausible outcome" when the NDP+Independents will be lucky to win more than 2 seats combined?

"[L]ucky to win more than 2 seats combined" is a bit melodramatic lol

It's not hard to see the NDP holding onto both their districts, with Coffin retaining the most orange seat in the province & the NDP holding onto a pretty urban area. That's 2 seats right there.

Independent-wise, Paul Lane can hold onto Mount Pearl-Southlands, & re: Joyce, I think name recognition & length of service will end up outweighing partisanship & political scandal, imo.

So, 2 NDP, 2 Indys; say the Libs walk out of election night with 19 seats to the PC's 17: boom, minority government.

At this point, I admit the NDP+Ind seat total max is 4 (most likely it will be 2-3 imo), but still, that's not enough to make a minority the most plausible outcome. Even with a tie PV. One party usually has a geographic advantage. Look at the 1989 election. Essentially it was a tied PV, but the Liberals won a 10 seat majority.  

It's a shame that's the case, but I agree that it is. A majority for either Ball or Crosbie would be a disaster. If you're wondering, I'm supporting the Conservatives this fall (although I'm not in Canada currently.)

If the PCs won a majority, they may still not have a single MLA from the Long Range Mountains/Labrador parts of the province. It should be an interesting night.

[Hatman 🍁]

How can a minority government be "the most plausible outcome" when the NDP+Independents will be lucky to win more than 2 seats combined?

"[L]ucky to win more than 2 seats combined" is a bit melodramatic lol

It's not hard to see the NDP holding onto both their districts, with Coffin retaining the most orange seat in the province & the NDP holding onto a pretty urban area. That's 2 seats right there.

Independent-wise, Paul Lane can hold onto Mount Pearl-Southlands, & re: Joyce, I think name recognition & length of service will end up outweighing partisanship & political scandal, imo.

So, 2 NDP, 2 Indys; say the Libs walk out of election night with 19 seats to the PC's 17: boom, minority government.

At this point, I admit the NDP+Ind seat total max is 4 (most likely it will be 2-3 imo), but still, that's not enough to make a minority the most plausible outcome. Even with a tie PV. One party usually has a geographic advantage. Look at the 1989 election. Essentially it was a tied PV, but the Liberals won a 10 seat majority.  

It's a shame that's the case, but I agree that it is. A majority for either Ball or Crosbie would be a disaster. If you're wondering, I'm supporting the Conservatives this fall (although I'm not in Canada currently.)

If the PCs won a majority, they may still not have a single MLA from the Long Range Mountains/Labrador parts of the province. It should be an interesting night.

Because I'm a pedantic a$$hole, I have to point out that they're called MHAs in Newfoundland

Anyway, Newfoundland is prone to some wild swings, so expect the unexpected tonight.