Predict the Democratic Primaries Round 2: New Hampshire
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Poll
Question: Who will win the New Hampshire Democratic Primary?
#1
Joe Biden		  
#2
Cory Booker		  
#3
Pete Buttigieg		  
#4
Julian Castro		  
#5
Kamala Harris		  
#6
Amy Klobuchar		  
#7
Beto O'Rourke		  
#8
Bernie Sanders		  
#9
Elizabeth Warren		  
#10
Andrew Yang		  
#11
Other		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 84

Author Topic: Predict the Democratic Primaries Round 2: New Hampshire  (Read 1964 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« on: September 25, 2019, 10:49:48 AM »
« edited: October 01, 2019, 01:38:41 AM by Xing »


Warren

IA

NOTE: I'm using the same coloring that I did for the previous threads. I'm open to changing the colors, if enough posters want that. Also, for the next three polls, I'll only be including the top ten candidates according to polling. If you haven't yet voted in the Iowa poll, you still can.

On to New Hampshire. Give how Warren has recently been taking the lead here, while Sanders has fallen to third place, I'm going to say Lean Warren. I don't see Biden winning here unless Sanders and Warren end up splitting a lot of the remaining vote pretty evenly, and Sanders would need Warren's numbers to drop to pull back in front. Overall, I'd guess a 5-10% win for Warren, though at this point, that's little more than an educated guess.

As usual, vote for who you think the winner will be, but feel free to specify a rating (e.g. Tilt Warren, Likely Biden, etc.) and a margin if you'd like.
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Grumpier Than Thou
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2019, 10:54:12 AM »
the dragon slayer
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andjey
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2019, 11:48:11 AM »
Warren 23%
Biden 20%
Sanders 15%
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Diabolical Materialism
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2019, 01:56:04 PM »
Sanders without a shadow of a doubt. The people saying Warren have their heads up their bums.
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Grumpier Than Thou
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2019, 01:59:47 PM »
Quote from: SlamDunk on September 25, 2019, 01:56:04 PM
Sanders without a shadow of a doubt. The people saying Warren have their heads up their bums.

man, i wish this site had the !Remindme feature from Reddit.
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Diabolical Materialism
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2019, 02:22:13 PM »
Quote from: 20PETE20 on September 25, 2019, 01:59:47 PM
Quote from: SlamDunk on September 25, 2019, 01:56:04 PM
Sanders without a shadow of a doubt. The people saying Warren have their heads up their bums.

man, i wish this site had the !Remindme feature from Reddit.
I'll gladly eat my words if I have to. But Warren's standing nationally is over inflated.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2019, 09:21:08 PM »
Bumping so that this gets a few more votes.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2019, 09:31:10 PM »
I would still say Lean Warren due to still high support for Sanders here but I expect the progressive vote (W + S) to be stronger than in Iowa. If Warren doesn't win this by a decent amount (at least 10) it doesn't spell well for her, given the majority of the state is an extension of her home state. Same thing for Bernie, though it already looks like he's done for.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2019, 05:22:19 AM »
Who will win NH, with what percentage and why?
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free my dawg
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« Reply #9 on: November 30, 2019, 05:39:41 AM »
Maybe it's my gut and maybe it's wishful thinking, but I thi k Sanders takes it.
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andjey
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« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2019, 05:58:18 AM »
Sanders->Biden->Warren->Buttigieg
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2019, 06:25:16 AM »
I’m 94% certain that it will be Pete Buttigieg.
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RGM2609
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« Reply #12 on: November 30, 2019, 06:29:36 AM »
I personally think it will be Warren, with something like 22% over Buttigieg and Sanders with 20% and Biden with 18% so pretty narrow
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: November 30, 2019, 06:47:01 AM »
Buttigieg
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #14 on: November 30, 2019, 10:09:44 AM »
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redjohn
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« Reply #15 on: November 30, 2019, 03:12:29 PM »
Pete winning NH is laughable. Sanders wins NH.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #16 on: November 30, 2019, 03:17:33 PM »
I’m still guessing Warren, though Sanders has a real chance. I highly doubt it’ll be Buttigieg.
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Orwell
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« Reply #17 on: November 30, 2019, 03:41:06 PM »
You can quote me on this and probably will if Im wrong to disprove any of my claims, but I feel like Pete gets the victory in New Hampshire.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #18 on: November 30, 2019, 08:09:08 PM »
This will be a close call between Buttigieg, Sanders, and Warren. Mostly Buttigieg and Warren though, I just wouldn't completely discount Sanders.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #19 on: December 01, 2019, 12:24:52 AM »
Sanders.

In the general, The state is a toss-up. Some Democrats would win, Some Democrats would lose.
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TrumpBritt24
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« Reply #20 on: December 01, 2019, 01:05:26 AM »
Warren
Buttigieg
Sanders
Biden
Klobuchar
Yang
Gabbard
Patrick
Steyer
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Shadows
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« Reply #21 on: December 01, 2019, 01:11:57 AM »
Sanders has a very good chance given that Yang-Gabbard have a combined votes of 6-10%, most of which will go to Sanders. On the other hand, Harris/Booker/Klobuchar barely have any votes.

In addition Independents will likely go to Sanders & will boost his overall numbers. Yang-Gabbard won't make the Jan debates & won't get any delegates in Iowa & their votes will crash.

If Pete wins Iowa & if Biden absolutely crashes then Pete has a chance.
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W
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« Reply #22 on: December 01, 2019, 12:33:42 PM »
« Edited: December 01, 2019, 01:09:21 PM by W »
Sanders
Warren
Biden
Buttigieg
Gabbard
Yang
Klobuchar
Harris
Steyer
Patrick
Booker
Castro
Bennet
Delaney
Bullock
Sestak
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #23 on: December 01, 2019, 08:02:29 PM »
Sanders is virtually assured NH and VT
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #24 on: December 02, 2019, 07:48:31 AM »
« Edited: December 02, 2019, 07:57:54 AM by DINO Tom »
Pete
Sanders

Biden


Warren
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