Rate North Carolina
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Poll
Question: Rate the North Carolina Senate race in 2020
#1
Likely D
#2
Lean D
#3
Toss-Up/Tilt D
#4
Toss-Up/Tilt R
#5
Lean R
#6
Likely R
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Partisan results

Author Topic: Rate North Carolina  (Read 1739 times)
ElectionsGuy
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E: 7.10, S: -7.65

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« on: October 10, 2019, 11:31:43 PM »
Vote or change vote in previous threads here:

AZ CO ME



No Election: 35
Safe D: 6
Likely D: 1
Lean D:
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 1
Toss-Up/Tilt R:
Lean R: 1
Likely R:
Safe R: 10
No Election: 30



Democrats: 43
Republicans: 41

Runoffs



Pickups

AZ CO

Net: D+2
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Xing
xingkerui
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E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2019, 11:38:00 PM »
Toss-Up/Tilt R for now. Tillis's popularity isn't great, and while he has time to recover, underperforming Trump is a real possibility for him (might not be enough for him to lose, but I expect it to be quite close either way.)
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TML
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2019, 01:21:25 AM »
Tillis' net approval rating is currently underwater, which means he is at least vulnerable. Remember that McCrory's net approval rating was barely above water a couple of months before he lost.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2019, 03:03:32 AM »
Tilt D
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538Electoral
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« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2019, 03:17:02 AM »
Lean R
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2019, 05:44:31 AM »
Lean R. I expect Trump to carry the state, but the Senate race will be close.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2019, 07:28:45 AM »
Lean R
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2019, 08:11:33 AM »
Lean R.  I don't think the Dems will get the turnout to flip this seat, but it wouldn't shock me if the margin of victory was extremely narrow for the GOP. 
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #8 on: October 11, 2019, 08:17:42 AM »
Tossup/Tilt D. Tillis is the third most unpopular senator in the country in a swing state. That doesn’t usually bode well. Ask jeff Flake.
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HarrisonL
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« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2019, 09:05:48 AM »
Tossup, this state will be more elastic than Georgia's two seats in 2020. Tillis is not even popular among North Carolina Republicans, as polls show his primary race growing closer, and a good recruit like State Senator Cal Cunningham could flip the seat in 2020, despite low fundraising numbers.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2019, 09:49:42 AM »
Tossup
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Nyvin
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2019, 11:36:20 AM »
It can flip in a good D year. 
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Gracile
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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2019, 11:41:11 AM »
Tossup/Tilt R. Tillis could be taken down (and I think he has the potential to underperform Trump), but it would probably take a reasonably good night for the Democratic party to actually flip it.
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I Can Now Die Happy
NYC Millennial Minority
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« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2019, 11:54:43 AM »
Because of incumbency and Don's coattails I call it Likely R for Tillis, if you say otherwise I'll exclaim "Watcha talking about Willis?"
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Green Line
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« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2019, 04:16:48 PM »
Tilt D.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2019, 04:18:39 PM »
Lean R.
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2019, 04:47:05 PM »
It’s not even a given Tillis wins the primary imo
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #17 on: October 11, 2019, 05:49:46 PM »
Quote from: Bagel23 on October 11, 2019, 04:18:39 PM
Lean R.
[/quote
Sabato changed its rating to tossup
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: October 14, 2019, 09:23:04 PM »
« Edited: October 14, 2019, 09:29:06 PM by Sensitive Soccer Moms Against Impeachment »
Pure Tossup, Tillis is hilariously overrated. Tilt R if forced to choose, but it could easily go Democratic, especially on a good night for Democrats.

Reading this forum you’d think NC was as Republican as MS.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #19 on: October 14, 2019, 09:24:18 PM »
It's....a tossup senate race in a swing state. This shouldn't be all that hard.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #20 on: October 14, 2019, 09:25:47 PM »
Quote from: KaiserDave on October 14, 2019, 09:24:18 PM
It's....a tossup senate race in a swing state. This shouldn't be all that hard.

Yeah, but an incumbent is running
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #21 on: October 14, 2019, 09:37:27 PM »
Quote from: Sensitive Soccer Moms Against Impeachment on October 14, 2019, 09:25:47 PM
Quote from: KaiserDave on October 14, 2019, 09:24:18 PM
It's....a tossup senate race in a swing state. This shouldn't be all that hard.

Yeah, but an incumbent is running

Oh snap! Never mind, likely R I apologize.
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Skunk
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« Reply #22 on: October 15, 2019, 12:38:22 AM »
Tossup/Tilt R. Tillis's approval ratings are trash (I honestly think him losing the primary might help Rs, not sure how hot of a take that is) but Democratic recruitment and fundraising has been lackluster and I think Trump will end up carrying NC in 2020.
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andjey
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« Reply #23 on: October 15, 2019, 09:00:47 AM »
Tossup, closer to Tilt D than Tillt R
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #24 on: October 15, 2019, 09:14:02 AM »
Tossup/Tilt D; Cunningham is a slight fav over Tillis
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