Impeachment Megathread Part 3

[pbrower2a]

Making a New Years' Resolution to start posting on the topic here is cheap. You may have little chance to do otherwise, but unless you resolve to quit discussing impeachment altogether.... here you are.  

Old thread.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=340622.0

[pbrower2a]

On the other hand, the case is going to some simulation of a legal process. Ordinarily it is wise to not speculate on the course of a legal process under litigation. Thus I do not usually discuss a criminal or civil case aside from what is presented in the court. That is where the decision will be made, and in a criminal case a jury can easily nullify what everyone else believes.

The House phase is analogous to a grand jury; a grand jury exists solely to determine whether a case for prosecution exists. Criminal defendants rarely get cleared in a grand jury trial.

[pbrower2a]

We know the reality. We liberals can do nothing about it -- and we do not have the grimy duty to pretend that our pain at recognizing that Donald Trump is President is in fact the most wondrous delight in human existence... even better than sex. This isn't Stalinland or Hitlerland, but it is getting closer, and any political motion in such a direction is an abomination.

The election that now matters is the one ten months from now, the one that will decide whether America is a leader in the Free World or becomes an Evil Empire. In case you didn't catch on, we are now exactly three times closer to the 2020 election than to the 2016 election. The past is always clearer than the future, and we all better understand what happened even a century ago than we understand what will happen in five years. Look at it this way: people better understood in May 1943 how the American Civil War ended than how WWII would end.

Some of us think we have insights on human character, and some are obvious enough. Those who do criminal acts are likely to offend again, and practically every employer has a reasonable expectation that someone incapable of meeting the demands of manual dexterity cannot learn manual dexterity any more than that someone who doesn't understand the basics of engineering cannot learn those on the job. Donald Trump has shown his character clearly, and it is awful no matter what his ideology.

We have a process of impeachment tailor-made for stopping a would-be dynast, dictator, or despot -- if we use it properly. It is not for stopping incompetence; it is not the parliamentary vote of no confidence that can compel a new election. It can thwart criminality and corruption -- if we use it properly and when it is appropriate, By God, it is essential today.

The Founding Fathers never defined what "high crimes and misdemeanors" were. Being in a drunken haze at all times might not be criminal, but it has been grounds for impeaching and removing federal judges, as was done in the first instance. The criminal code is obvious enough. It might not be so clear about violations of traffic laws -- the President ordinarily leaves the driving to someone else. Some misdeeds were beyond the scope of imagination at the time of the Constitution, such as wire fraud; there was not even the telegraph in operation until the 1840's.

We need impeachment as a deterrent to such deeds as war crimes.  

[pbrower2a]

A new FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll shows that 57% of Americans believe Trump committed an impeachable offense.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-poll-finds-a-majority-of-americans-think-the-evidence-supports-trumps-removal/

It's sinking in.

[pbrower2a]

Bolton is a nasty piece of work, but he is scared of any personal consequences should something go wrong and he should be criminally responsible. I'm guessing that this classic warmonger sees Donald Trump as a potential war criminal who will drag anyone close to him at the time of some horrible deed to the Hague Tribunal.

We have new potential charges of High Crimes and Misdemeanors in plotting or threatening Crimes against Humanity. Bolton might be delighted to see some senior officers of the Iranian Revolutionary guard dangle, but destroying great cultural relics? That is not his style.

I can easily see the next Democratic President yielding a President and his evil-doing flunkies to a Hague Tribunal which has a high conviction rate and which has long prison terms for those convicted. For someone like Jean Kabanda or Slobodan Milosevich who has lived well, such is quite a downfall. 

[pbrower2a]

It's up to the Senate now... and many of us believe that Mitch McConnell already has the fix in.

[pbrower2a]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ABC/status/1214630003817750528

The cover up begins

McConnell has the Votes to Start Impeachment Proceedings on his Terms meaning we'll likely get Opening Statements and deal with witnesses later.
Mitt Romney backed his Proposal as did Senators Collins and Murkowski.

Let history remember that Romney, Collins and Murkowski decided, the day after a star witness offered to testify for the first time, that a trial for the most powerful man in the world should not have any witnesses.

For Susan Collins, let voters in 2020 also remember.

If someone hurt you or your family, Collins would say "yes, let's have a show trial, witnesses are unnecessary."  Party of law and order, folks.

What do you want? The President removed from Office. That is just not going happen and you know it. There ain't 67 Votes to remove Trump. Pelosi knows it as well.
The longer she holds onto these Articles the more likely it is Impeachment will turn against the DEMS.

I want an actual trial, with actual witnesses, and some semblance of an actual legal proceeding.

It's like To Kill A Mockingbird.  Everyone knew that Tom was going to be found guilty by a racist white jury.  But Atticus Finch still does his damndest to present the case, lay out the facts, and defend Tom.  Not only because that's how progress happens, by good men striving their hardest against injustice, but also because this is America, and in America we follow the laws of justice.

We don't just lay down our principles and accede to an insulting, degrading show trial simply because the jury has already been rigged and the outcome is already known.  That's what happens in oppressive, backwards countries.  Here in America, the laws of justice are the foundation of our society, and we must follow them, regardless of the outcome.

The Republicans, led by Mitch McConnell, want to have a quick show trial where they completely ignore the charges of impeachment, spend a few days giving speeches on the Senate floor about how awful Joe Biden is and how lawless the Democrats are, maybe bring in a hand-picked "legal expert" to say Trump is 100% innocent and the Democrats are the real criminals, and then vote to acquit and move on.  A complete mockery of justice, a stain on our nation's legacy and an insult to the American people.

I wish that I could believe otherwise about an impeachment trial... I expect a fix. I expect McConnell to promote a 'trial' which goes out of seeming control and turns into an inquisition against Democrats for disloyalty to the Greatest President in American History who absolutely must be re-elected in 2020 lest horrible things happen to America.

I expect a majority of Americans to be infuriated.

[pbrower2a]

Pelosi isn't winning, McConnell is.

You have it diametrically opposite of political reality. Republicans are potentially in a no-win situation. In chess the term is Zugzwang -- one is not in danger of something catastrophic so long as one does not move, but one has legal moves and all of them will result in loses of pieces or in checkmate.

Senate Republicans can defend the President by dismissing the indictment through a legal chicane that will look horrible in November, can whitewash the President and look bad in November, or can let impeachment take its course and have Mike Pence as an unelectable nominee in November.     

Pelosi will soon be accused by Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar and Bernie Sanders of intervening into the Democratic Primary Process by playing Games with the Impeachment Articles and helping Joe Biden to win Iowa and therefore becoming the the facto Democratic Nominee.

Pelosi has helped anyone who will win the Democratic nomination for President. But this said, Donald Trump blew it all badly.

Do you really think it's a coincidence that she is sending these Articles over to the Senate less than three weeks before the Iowa Caucuses? I don't think so. She wants Uncle Joe's Democratic Rivals to be in Washington while Uncle Joe can park himself in IA for the next 3 weeks.

A President compromising defense and foreign policy for a specious advantage in the upcoming campaign does not deserve to remain President. 

Shce vmerla Ukraina!

[pbrower2a]

Ridiculous! Mike Pence isn't unelectable!

His constituency is the Religious Right and America's numerically-small economic elite. He would have trouble, as a lapsed Catholic, with the Catholic vote.  His star was fading rapidly in Indiana when Trump picked him, possibly as "impeachment insurance".

[pbrower2a]

LOL, look at the face of Adam Schiff.

How can the People of California elect such a snark and work to the U. S. House.

Adam Schiff is a disgrace to the American Public and now expects the Senate to do his Homework. Such a Troll is Adam.

If I were a gangster I would prefer that he be in the House of Representatives and not be prosecuting me. Many Blue politicians are former DA's, tough-as-nails types when they must be, but capable of showing humanity at other times.

It is up to Senate Republicans to decide whether the evidence of Presidential wrongdoing mandates removal.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1217783392378544129

So we finally get an investigation from Ukraine after all...but probably not the one Trump wanted.

LMAO.
Well there you go, President Orange Buffoon .... you got a Ukraine investigation.

The Ukrainians may be taking diplomatic niceties seriously. Diplomatic immunity implies non-interference and no tolerance of interference in normal activities. Stalking a diplomat is a criminal activity.   

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1218984493526196224

 

Retire -- and possibly flee.

[pbrower2a]

Basically, support for impeachment of the President is over 53% in all states that President Trump lost, majority in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; and with pluralities for impeachment in Georgia and Ohio. It's almost an inverse of what I would expect in approval.  

Trump will not be removed; Mitch McConnell will see to that. The fix is in, and it is only a matter of time before Republicans start crowing that Trump is vindicated. Dislike the result? Vote Democratic in November.

[pbrower2a]

The fix is in. Welcome to a replay of the 1919 World Series.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1220017667387445248

That is literally all lies

The big problem is not that we have a big liar, someone who has learned well what Hitler said of the Big Lie. The problem is that so many people are gullible, that they have no tests for truth, and that many accept flagrant lies because such soothes them.

Objective reality can be unspeakably unpleasant (with the Stage 4 lung cancer that you have, you have only three months in which to live), but what else does one have? Maybe in three months one might be able to tie up some loose ends in life.

[pbrower2a]

The polls keep moving in the wrong direction for Trump:

https://twitter.com/ameliatd/status/1220348769931317249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...

Wait, nearly 20% of Republicans now support the conviction and removal of Donald Trump?   

We're getting there... 

This is hilarious! The Polls are a bit scewed right now because over the last Week and particularly over the last 2 Days everything is played on the Democrats turf with the House Managers making their case.
I expect Public Opinion to shift a bit once Trumps Legal Team can make their case

CNN is saying the same thing:

Republicans encouraged during lunch to be more available to press

Republicans have been much more visible over the last few breaks, and there is a reason for that.

According to two sources, during the Senate GOP lunch, Republican leaders encouraged their conference to be make themselves available during the breaks to the press in an effort to more publicly defend President Trump during a time when the entire public is focused on three days of Democratic arguments. According to one aide familiar with the discussion, constituents back home are calling lawmakers and expressing concern that no one on the Republican side is getting a chance to step in to defend Trump live on TV during the trial.

Remember: The rules will give the President a chance to defend himself, but right now, it’s the Democrats. The President’s defense team will start their presentations on Saturday and have 24 hours of their own to make their case. However, GOP lawmakers are hearing from constituents back home now who are watching and are surprised to see this playing out in a one-sided format at the moment.

What do you expect from Public Opinion when it's totally one-sided the last 48 Hours.

What exactly does Trump have for Defense?   What is their actual story going to be here?  So far all they do is complain about the process and don't address the actual issues whatsoever.

All I can think of is the last defense of someone in the final stage of a break-up over marital infidelity:

"Are you going to believe me or are you going to believe your lying eyes?"

It is almost that bad.

[pbrower2a]

Serious question: What will the Democrats run on in 2020 once Trump is acquitted? All their political capital has been used on impeachment.

They will be running against Trump corruption, the costly and destructive trade war, and on the 'fix'.

[pbrower2a]

I have a feeling McConnell is going to have to allow witnesses because his party really wants Hunter Biden at the trial.

Even if McConnell does call witnesses what do these Senate Democrats & House Democrats expect? Bolton is a REPUBLICAN. Yes, he might not like a lot of things Trump did & said but to think Bolton would literally stab his former boss in the back so that he could be removed from Office is really far-fetched. In what Universe do these Congressional Democrats (House & Senate) live in?

By the way, if we do have witnesses & testimonies that would entirely be done in a Senate Closed Door Session meaning the Public wouldn't see anything from it.

I'll give you an example: Senator Rob Portman of Ohio (who did not vote for Trump in 2016 and wrote in Stanley McChrystal I believe) said to CNN on Thursday Morning Quote "I don't like some things the President did but I am not going to throw him out of Office".

Bottom Line:
Atlas Democrats and Senate & House Democrats are the most NAIVE People I've ever seen. They really live in a totally different World & Universe if they think that they can get some evidence from John Bolton & Mick Mulvaney to make their case even stronger to remove Trump from Office.

Not denying that John Bolton is a piece of work... his first loyalty is to himself, and he is not going to do anything that would bring about criminal charges upon him. He may be a warmonger, but he has no desire to go before the Hague Tribunal as a war criminal.

Good reason exists for Republicans not wanting him to testify.     

[pbrower2a]

I am still trying to figure out what the crime is with which he is charged.

It sounds like a scripted setup by the cops (Democrats) where they think they have a bank robber (Trump), don't know if a bank (Ukraine) was even robbed, don't know where he was and let's throw into Court and see if he confesses simply because we want him off the street.

Throwing this all into the senate without charges or evidence just seems way out of whack with a normal judicial process.

It just seems like the Democrats have had this fantasy since 2016. This is their big moment in the sun, and only time will tell if this pure politically motivated witch-hunt will pay dividends in November.

For if it does not, Adam Schiff will go down in history as a liar who gave the unlovable President Trump another 4 years in office.

The real offense isn't getting the money; the crime is in making a criminal threat even if the intended victim fails to comply or the crook leaves empty-handed (So the crook drops the money or flees without it when he hears the siren of a fire truck; he still brandished a weapon in front of a teller or left a threatening note, and such is the crime).

President Trump made an unconscionable threat which in any other context would be criminal -- so it almost certainly is criminal.  

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/rgoodlaw/status/1221815532565024771

The President is either out of touch with the truth or he is telling a complete lie.  One way or the other he is unfit to be President.



 

[pbrower2a]

Alan Dershowitz just KILLED the Democrats case in one sentence.

A Quid Pro Pro is (even if there is one) is not an impeachable offense. Period!

GAME OVER MISTER SCHIFF

You couldn't read the Constitution, lousy Adam!

Last I knew, extortion is a felony crime good for a long prison term. A quid pro quo is a crime if one is dealing what is not one's to deal or if one demands in bad faith what the other person cannot legitimately give.

I could also treat the deal as wire fraud. Of course, wire fraud does not exist in the Constitution either for the simple fact that there were no telegraphs or other wire communications in the US in the eighteenth century.

[pbrower2a]

I'm surprised 2016 hasn't been barred from this thread yet.

Really? I think you should be ashamed of yourself for wanting a duly elected President removed from Office and essentially nullify two Elections, the 2016 one and 2020 as well. You should be barred from this Thread.

If you can't take some HEAT get out of the kitchen. Republicans had to take the heat for 12 weeks before we could say anything.

But typical Democrats like you get on the attack when getting called out.

This Atlas isn't just a Democratic Propaganda Site. If you want to Dems only go to DailyKos.

I'm not mincing any words here. Donald Trump is a horrible person, monstrously cruel and corrupt. Enough people wanted him in the right places, and that is how we get our Presidents. Impeachment is not as neat and decisive a practice as a parliamentary vote of no confidence. Well, when we have a good President like Obama and an awful Congress we prove the merits of a Presidential system, and when we get a dreadful President and a good Congress we prove the merits of a parliamentary system. Our Founding Fathers disliked the British parliament for its rotten boroughs in which the King could establish flunkies in his service.

What Trump did would be inexcusable if a Democrat did it. Republicans who excuse Trump this time excuse such for a Democrat some time from now when the damage might be even greater -- should Trump have weakened our institutions.

We are stuck with the results of the 2016 Presidential election. Except for the House of Representatives we live in about as pure a plutocracy as there is -- the only more blatant plutocracies are those in which some royal family has ownership of the oil rights in countries in which oil extraction dominates the economy. Trump is a consequence of the Tea Party trend in America.

We cannot impeach the President for unpopularity or provable incompetence -- not for a military disaster or an economic meltdown. We are stuck with scheduled elections, and those can come with agonizing waits. That is how it was with Hoover (for very different reasons) and that is how it is with Trump.

If we impeach and remove Trump, then we get stuck with Mike Pence. Nancy Pelosi? The Republicans would find someone else should Mike Pence be impeached -- certainly someone who believes that no human suffering can ever be in excess so long as it turns, enhances, indulges, or enforces a profit.  

It is up to Republicans to decide that "right" and "wrong" are valid concepts in politics as they are in our personal lives. As it goes, I expect President Trump to be defeated in November 2020 if he is not removed from office. The more that I see of Republicans to deny objective truth strictly for partisan advantage the more I see their credibility erode.      

[pbrower2a]

Here I was thinking that Donald Trump was interested in getting dirt on Joe Biden.

Ironically, the Democrats have dug it up all by themselves thanks to having this evidenced splashed all over an Impeachment Trial.

Biden was getting cozy jobs for his uneducated son in the Ukraine when Jr knew nothing about Natural Gas or it's economic discovery, development or delivery.

Turns out Obama and Biden were slipperier than Trump this whole time.

Boards of Directors usually have at least some members from outside the industry in order to prevent groupthink. Very ignorant argument.

OK. I will grant you leave to present your argument instead.

What skills and experience does Hunter Biden possess which would be of benefit to a Ukrainian Gas Company owned by a crooked Oligarch?

Business skills and business experience. Boards of major corporations are often silly. Or do you think Condoleeza Rice is on the board of directors of Dropbox because of her tech savvy?

Btw, absolutely no one is arguing that Hunter Biden hasn’t lived a very privileged life in part because of his last name. Has he probably gotten business opportunities that other people wouldn’t have gotten because people know who his dad is? Probably! Is that evidence that Joe Biden himself has intervened to get his son cushy jobs? Of course not! Why would he need to?

Better question: if Trump was really sincerely concerned about finding out if there was anything shady going on with Biden’s business dealings, then why was Trump so focused on getting the announcement of the investigation up front? If you actually want to conduct a meaningful investigation of a corrupt businessman, shouldn’t you do the investigation first rather than holding a press conference so that your target knows to go ahead and start shredding documents? Hmmm... it’s almost as if the announcement of an investigation was more immediately valuable to Trump than anything that would have resulted from the investigation.

Precisely. The idea was to cripple the campaign of the strongest rival at the time. The best investigations of corrupt behavior are secretive.  There is no need to announce an investigation unless to spook a corrupt suspect into doing something to implicate himself. This is a dirty trick at its worst. If there really were corruption such an investigation might take too long to lead to an indictment, arrest, and prosecution.

An announcement without foundation is itself corrupt and inexcusable. Trump is the corrupt character, which explains why he has been impeached.

[pbrower2a]

Just to draw everybody back in for a moment.

https://mobile.twitter.com/burgessev/status/1222296901451755520?s=19

So this MAY mean that the sixteen-hour question stage will be crucial.  Still, this is encouraging if you want witnesses.  

They’re probably going to hold Ann Romney hostage or something.

In effect the whitewash will be less effective in convincing Americans that Trump is innocent.

Political culture can change dramatically in four years, and one way in which it can change is the tolerance that people show for roguish behavior or self-righteousness.

[pbrower2a]

"The Hill" is reporting that Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-Md) plans to force a Vote to require Roberts to weigh in on Witnesses & Executive Privilege

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/480614-dem-senator-to-force-vote-requiring-roberts-to-weigh-in-on-witnesses

Democrats now trying DESPERATION MOVES! Yikes!

What are you so afraid of?

If Trump is innocent, Bolton's testimony wouldn't make a difference or might even help the case for an acquittal.

It's as if facts aren't on your side and you know it.

The Senate should not be paralyzed for weeks if not months because of this Impeachment Trail. The POTUS is going to be acquitted anyways so no need to drag this out.

How many weeks or months do you expect Bolton's testimony to take?

LOL, don't give me that crap that this Witness Vote is just about John Bolton. McConnell is right. If we go down this road of calling witnesses it won't just end with Bolton. Democrats will then demand Mulvaney, Blair, Duffy and maybe Ivanka and her husband Jared Kushner.

Slippery slope argument. The Democratic theme in this impeachment trial has been above all else, national security. Democrats almost never have this as a political advantage, but I expect them to exploit this issue every day until the November election. It usually works for conservatives... but the GOP is no longer a conservative Party. It sold its soul to cronyism and demagoguery, neither of which is conservative.

Republicans can arrange things so that the only witness is John Bolton, and if that is what it takes to get him heard, I am willing to let them get away with allowing no further testimony. President Trump has been appeasing Vladimir Putin as no President has appeased Russia or the Soviet Union.

Bolton had good reason to abandon Trump. Those could involve vanity and self-preservation (especially if Trump advocated war crimes or crimes against humanity).