Ghosts of Kennett Past: Victorian State Election (Final Results)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/AdemSomyurek/status/1596368376489598978

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

0.0% swing in East Melbourne. 6.6% swing in West Melbourne.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/PRGuy17/status/1596434991185289218

[GoTfan]

Sky's about to drop Somyurek faster that Victoria dropped the cookers.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Sky's about to drop Somyurek faster that Victoria dropped the cookers.

Nah looks quite possible he'll win the last upper house seat in Northern Metro. (And not from Patten, she holds on instead Labor maybe loses it's second seat).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Polwarth - I'm going bold and saying this has all the tools for an upset. The redistribution hurt the Liberals position here. Much of the Surf Coast is only being more left-wing by the day. Labor's candidate seems strong and is running a decent campaign here. The only question is whether the Liberals statewide vote improves by enough to drag this seat along with the tide. I think it just might, especially because there's still a lot of very conservative small towns here. But it's certainly a seat to watch.

Very good pick 👏👏👏

Edit: I'm pretty certain Labor would've won Polwarth in 2018 on these boundaries. The redistribution knocked the Liberal primary from 51% to 45% and the margin down to 2.0%. Labor would've gone all in with Torquay as a base compared to their minimal campaign irl.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ALP gain Polwarth?!!!!

[GoTfan]

Sky's about to drop Somyurek faster that Victoria dropped the cookers.

Nah looks quite possible he'll win the last upper house seat in Northern Metro. (And not from Patten, she holds on instead Labor maybe loses it's second seat).

He's likely gonna find himself all alone in there, unless he wants to make firends with the cookers. The man is one of the most corrupt politicians in Australia and is throwing the mother of all temper tantrums because he got caught. We've been waiting for his smoking gun on Andrews since he was expelled from Labor, and despite masses of promises that he's just about to reveal it, nothing's ever materialised. He's all bark and no bite.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Sky's about to drop Somyurek faster that Victoria dropped the cookers.

Nah looks quite possible he'll win the last upper house seat in Northern Metro. (And not from Patten, she holds on instead Labor maybe loses it's second seat).

He's likely gonna find himself all alone in there, unless he wants to make firends with the cookers. The man is one of the most corrupt politicians in Australia and is throwing the mother of all temper tantrums because he got caught. We've been waiting for his smoking gun on Andrews since he was expelled from Labor, and despite masses of promises that he's just about to reveal it, nothing's ever materialised. He's all bark and no bite.

He'll just love sharing the crossbench with the projected 2-3 Legalise Cannabis seats.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Liberal party room is starting to look a little bit like Jonestown and I suspect we'll keep drinking the Kool-Aid next term.
-The Liberal strategist on the ABC panel.

[skbl17]

The ABC has now published their first prediction: ALP 55, Coalition 25, GRN 6, IND 2

It would be something if after all the hullabaloo, Labor ended up with the exact same number of seats as 2018.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The ABC has now published their first prediction: ALP 55, Coalition 25, GRN 6, IND 2

It would be something if after all the hullabaloo, Labor ended up with the exact same number of seats as 2018.

Imagine if Labor somehow made net gains all while its primary vote declines and there are swings against it in its strongholds and in the statewide TPP.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

So this is a weaker version of South Australia 2010. There's a decent 2pp swing but the coalition might get a net loss bc Labor's getting swings towards it in the marginals while getting hammered in their safe seats.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The ABC has now published their first prediction: ALP 55, Coalition 25, GRN 6, IND 2

It would be something if after all the hullabaloo, Labor ended up with the exact same number of seats as 2018.

Breaking down the Coalition is revealing
LAB 55 ±0
LIB 16 —5!!!
NAT 9 +3
GRN 6 +3
IND 2 —1

[Cassius]

So this is a weaker version of South Australia 2010. There's a decent 2pp swing but the coalition might get a net loss bc Labor's getting swings towards it in the marginals while getting hammered in their safe seats.

Where are Labor votes going to in its safe seats?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There are only 2 new Coalition MPs - one LIB (Kew), one NAT (Shepparton). Meanwhile there are at least half-a-dozen new MPs for the ALP and multiple new Green ones.

[TheTide]

The Liberal caucus clearly blew it by bringing back known loser Matthew Guy.

Failed leaders succeeding on their second attempt is actually quite common in Australia. Didn't happen here though, obviously.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

So this is a weaker version of South Australia 2010. There's a decent 2pp swing but the coalition might get a net loss bc Labor's getting swings towards it in the marginals while getting hammered in their safe seats.

Where are Labor votes going to in its safe seats?

Literally everywhere. It's a shtshow.
St Albans:
Labor -19.1%
Liberal +1.0%
Labour DLP +7.3%
Greens -4.1%
Victorian Socialists +6.6%
Independent +4.4%
Family First Victoria +2.9%
Animal Justice +1.4%
Freedom Party Victoria +2.2%
New Democrats +0.5%

Sydenham:
Labor -18.3%
Liberal +1.8%
Family First Victoria +6.0%
Greens -1.1%
Victorian Socialists +5.2%
Labour DLP +4.3%
Freedom Party Victoria +4.1%
Animal Justice +2.2%

Kororoit
Labor -17.4%
Liberal +2.8%
Victorian Socialists +6.4%
Greens -1.9%
Family First Victoria +5.4%
Labour DLP +4.9%
Independent +3.2%
Animal Justice -4.6%
New Democrats +1.2%

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Liberal caucus clearly blew it by bringing back known loser Matthew Guy.

Failed leaders succeeding on their second attempt is actually quite common in Australia. Didn't happen here though, obviously.

They usually get a second chance because they actually do well and gain seats the first time, and then get the job done in 3-4 years. They don't usually lose in a near-landslide, get rolled, spend 3 years destabilising the new guy to get the job back, then face another election and go even worse!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The Liberal caucus clearly blew it by bringing back known loser Matthew Guy.

Failed leaders succeeding on their second attempt is actually quite common in Australia. Didn't happen here though, obviously.

They usually get a second chance because they actually do well and gain seats the first time, and then get the job done in 3-4 years. They don't usually lose in a near-landslide, get rolled, spend 3 years destabilising the new guy to get the job back, then face another election and go even worse!

Do the Victorian Liberals have anyone who is both a) actually competent and b) able to win the top job?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Matthew Guy is now speaking.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Guy gave just about the worst most ungracious concession in recent memory. It felt almost deluded. "We obtained a swing of more than half the way to government on paper" mfer u lost seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"Dictator Dan" is now about to be speaking.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The crowd is chanting "S! A! C!" after Dan Andrews was bringing it up.

[Logical]

"Dictator Dan" is now about to be speaking.

That's Eternal Chairman Dan for you.