NYT/Siena: PA--Trump +3, WI-Biden +2, MI-Trump +7, GA-Trump +10, NV-Trump +12, AZ-Trump +7

[iceman]

I think it is time to move GA out of the tossup category.

(Polling would indicate we should for NV to, but that polling notoriously overstates the GOP there)

2020 +GA means Trump needs only PA, or a combination of any two other swing states (all combinations but WI and NV)  

To be fair, Trump also had good leads in GA early in the 2020 cycle and Warnock's 2022 win gives me some hope. Trump for sure is favored in GA as of today.

I was actually looking at the Georgia polls in 2020, and Trump was still getting big leads well into the Spring and early Summer. It wasn't until the late Summer and early Fall that the state started to look more competitive.

At the time, we chalked it up to Biden opening up a big lead, but we now know that wasn't the case. Perhaps in 2020 and this year as well, it's just certain D-leaning groups in the sunbelt not tuning in until late in the campaign.

uhhhh, no?! Biden was already leading on most Georgia polls since the last months of 2019. By spring it was a mix of Biden lead and Trump leads. And polls showing Trump leading were mostly only by 2-3%. We all know that there is still 7 months till election night. But Trump’s lead in Georgia has been not only been solid but also consistent based on the poll.

And Biden hasn’t had the lead in a single Georgia poll this year.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

Biden's also polling down in NE-02, though, which would close this path.

There is no more fitting way for democracy to end than on a 269-269 tie due to an archaic points system in which one of the 50 member states uses a different allocation methodology to flip one point to the lagging candidate - and the majority of members who vote in the tiebreak system support the candidate that would have had a majority, but they are grouped into 50 separate lots, of which the majority of lots cast their votes for the lagging candidate.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

You'd expect Biden to be losing Wisconsin too with numbers like these

Not necessarily.  It's a very consistent trend that Biden's holding up fine with Northern secular white people but in freefall with Hispanic people and probably doing worse than 2020 with black and white people in the South to some degree. 

I suspect Wisconsin is just another mirage like in 2016 and 2020, but we’ll see. I could see WWC being Biden’s best demographic relative to 2020, though immigration and inflation concerns likely hurt here.

[Skill and Chance]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

Biden's also polling down in NE-02, though, which would close this path.

There is no more fitting way for democracy to end than on a 269-269 tie due to an archaic points system in which one of the 50 member states uses a different allocation methodology to flip one point to the lagging candidate - and the majority of members who vote in the tiebreak system support the candidate that would have had a majority, but they are grouped into 50 separate lots, of which the majority of lots cast their votes for the lagging candidate.

If Biden is losing NE-02, he's losing the PV.

[kwabbit]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

Biden's also polling down in NE-02, though, which would close this path.

There's no way Biden loses NE-02 in a competitive election. It was Biden +6 in 2020 and is trending strongly left. It's more on the same level as Virginia or Minnesota than MI/WI/PA.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

Biden's also polling down in NE-02, though, which would close this path.

There's no way Biden loses NE-02 in a competitive election. It was Biden +6 in 2020 and is trending strongly left. It's more on the same level as Virginia or Minnesota than MI/WI/PA.

Trends don’t always continue. Polling suggests Trump is improving the most in urban areas and least in rural areas, possibly because of the housing situation.

[kwabbit]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

Biden's also polling down in NE-02, though, which would close this path.

There's no way Biden loses NE-02 in a competitive election. It was Biden +6 in 2020 and is trending strongly left. It's more on the same level as Virginia or Minnesota than MI/WI/PA.

Trends don’t always continue. Polling suggests Trump is improving the most in urban areas and least in rural areas, possibly because of the housing situation.

That's because urban areas are racially diverse and rural areas are not. Omaha is not particularly diverse. The district is around 70% NH White and is 41% college educated.

Most polling has Biden improving most among college-educated Whites and holding pretty steady among non-college educated Whites. They are probably around 80% of the electorate. It's not going to trend right.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Overall a horrible picture. Yup, the grosstabs are questionable, but either polling is just totally broken or it doesn't look for Biden at all.

All things considered, I'm slowly moving towards the belief that Biden is headed for defeat. Maybe not by these margins here. There's still enough time to turn things around, but for how long have been saying this?

This is a weird thing to say given that the race is an absolute tossup in the 3 states that will really decide the election (WI/PA/MI) - if Biden wins those 3, which even judging by this poll, he most definitely can, then he wins ....

If he can hold the rest for sure, while losing NV would bring down to 270.

The reason I'm starting to believe this that we haven't seen much change in the numbers albeit from Biden's brief and medicore bump after his SOTU. That leads me to the conclusion the American public just doesn't want him to be prez anymore. Additionally, it seems like lots of Millennial and Gen Z voters feel a huge sense of anexity and are willing to throw the election to Trump by sitting November out. Sadly, many Americans see Biden as a doddering old fool no longer up to the task. Is that image unfair? Absolutely. But it's hard to change public perceptions, especially as we get closer and closer to the election.

Sure, it's not too late... but for how long have we been saying this? Initially I expected things to shift into the election year or spring, similar to Clinton and Obama. We haven't seen this yet, and Biden is arguably in a much worse position. Obama was just slightly underwater in 2012 at that time, Biden's approval has been in double digit negative pretty much since the summer of 2021. In fact, he may be happy to run against a horrible candidate like Trump. Otherwise, this race might be Likely/Safe R instead of Tilt or Lean.

Biden's also polling down in NE-02, though, which would close this path.

There's no way Biden loses NE-02 in a competitive election. It was Biden +6 in 2020 and is trending strongly left. It's more on the same level as Virginia or Minnesota than MI/WI/PA.

Trends don’t always continue. Polling suggests Trump is improving the most in urban areas and least in rural areas, possibly because of the housing situation.

That's because urban areas are racially diverse and rural areas are not. Omaha is not particularly diverse. The district is around 70% NH White and is 41% college educated.

Most polling has Biden improving most among college-educated Whites and holding pretty steady among non-college educated Whites. They are probably around 80% of the electorate. It's not going to trend right.

The only poll that we have is a Democratic internal that usually leans left showing Trump up by 3 in NE02. Also polling still shows Biden losing ground with whites, but not anywhere near as much as with minority voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The economy is gonna be the same under Trump because Biden still have the tax cuts in place, and unless Trump ushers a peace deal in Ukraine Gas prices will be the same.  Trump is gonna drill for more oil but ruin the Environment

[Minnesota Mike]

So what's the standard for posting polls here, Likely Voters or Registered Voters when both are available? I would think it would be Likely Voters but it seems to vary by the whim  of the original poster. The difference between a terrible poll for Biden in MI (Trump +7 RV) and a toss up race (Biden+1 LV).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

So what's the standard for posting polls here, Likely Voters or Registered Voters when both are available? I would think it would be Likely Voters but it seems to vary by the whim  of the original poster. The difference between a terrible poll for Biden in MI (Trump +7 RV) and a toss up race (Biden+1 LV).

Likely voter screens should only be used close to the election.

[dspNY]

No way to sugarcoat these, just bad numbers all around. The LV screens are more important and look a little better but they’re still awful

[Cyrusman]

I think it is time to move GA out of the tossup category.

(Polling would indicate we should for NV to, but that polling notoriously overstates the GOP there)

2020 +GA means Trump needs only PA, or a combination of any two other swing states (all combinations but WI and NV)  

To be fair, Trump also had good leads in GA early in the 2020 cycle and Warnock's 2022 win gives me some hope. Trump for sure is favored in GA as of today.

I was actually looking at the Georgia polls in 2020, and Trump was still getting big leads well into the Spring and early Summer. It wasn't until the late Summer and early Fall that the state started to look more competitive.

At the time, we chalked it up to Biden opening up a big lead, but we now know that wasn't the case. Perhaps in 2020 and this year as well, it's just certain D-leaning groups in the sunbelt not tuning in until late in the campaign.

 I wouldn't be surprised if the BLM protests hit home in GA, especially generating crazy Black turnaround in Atlanta.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kemp have sky high Approvals that's why Trump is doing well

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Not great, well the Sun Belt i think is lost barring a huge change in the polls and something major changing.

Feels like the map reverts back to 2016 in a way with the Blue Wall again at stake. And Biden still seems to be in the running to fight back in the Rust Belt, but it'll be close.

I believe MN is in play as well, but it's again WI, MI & PA that matter most and if Biden can win all 3 he wins.

[xavier110]

Well, looks like November is gonna be a bloodbath

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Well, looks like November is gonna be a bloodbath

lol

[OSR stands with Israel]

These are RV.  Likely voter polling has Biden up by 1 in MI and Trump up by 1 in WI.  Not much difference between RV and LV in PA, GA, AZ, or NV.

Going off this , I think it’s clear that GA, AZ, NV are tilting in Trump’s direction. The question comes down to whether or not Biden can hold the “blue wall” in the rust belt because he probably will need all 3 to be reelected.

If he loses one of them , it’s gonna be hard to see how he also manages to make it up even though it’s possible with either Arizona or Georgia .

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, looks like November is gonna be a bloodbath

Lol these are polls not votes but blame the DNC of these are indeed the correct numbers they begged Biden to run again

[xavier110]

Well, looks like November is gonna be a bloodbath

Lol these are polls not votes but blame the DNC of these are indeed the correct numbers they begged Biden to run again

I need your 303 faith, but no one wants to vote for Biden. He needs a miracle and all these little green haired, unemployed TikTokers need to fall in line fast, or else we are stuck with 4 years of absolute chaos, corruption, and stupidity.

[GAinDC]

Well, looks like November is gonna be a bloodbath

Lol these are polls not votes but blame the DNC of these are indeed the correct numbers they begged Biden to run again

I need your 303 faith, but no one wants to vote for Biden. He needs a miracle and all these little green haired, unemployed TikTokers need to fall in line fast, or else we are stuck with 4 years of absolute chaos, corruption, and stupidity.

If Biden wins, most Dems will blame is on the pink haired they/thems who threw a temper tantrum all year.

They'll also look incredibly stupid when Trump escalates the situation further in Gaza and imposes another Muslim ban.

I hope the Democratic Party will finally realize that these folks are not good faith partners, and Dems should never listen to them or trust them ever again. We need a coalition with people who understand and respect the realities of governing and how to compete in our two-party system.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These are RV.  Likely voter polling has Biden up by 1 in MI and Trump up by 1 in WI.  Not much difference between RV and LV in PA, GA, AZ, or NV.

Going off this , I think it’s clear that GA, AZ, NV are tilting in Trump’s direction. The question comes down to whether or not Biden can hold the “blue wall” in the rust belt because he probably will need all 3 to be reelected.

If he loses one of them , it’s gonna be hard to see how he also manages to make it up even though it’s possible with either Arizona or Georgia .

You still have a DeSantis and Romney avatar on your signature and we haven't voted yet, tax cuts for the super rich I hope whenever we get the Filibuster proof Trifecta we eradicated it whenever, either Biden or Newsom

[Agafin]

Man you can't even go into election twitter without being swarmed by dem unskewers. If the polls end up being right in November, they will look even dumber than 2012 republican unskewers. It's fine to be skeptical of polls but like, really? Every single poll?

[wbrocks67]

Man you can't even go into election twitter without being swarmed by dem unskewers. If the polls end up being right in November, they will look even dumber than 2012 republican unskewers. It's fine to be skeptical of polls but like, really? Every single poll?

It's not every single poll, and I don't think anyone is saying the WI/PA/MI #s are weird.

The entire gist is that NV/AZ/GA are being impacted by unrealistic numbers with nonwhite and/or young voters. And that's not unrealistic given the issues in 2022 with the same thing.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1790055858757337590?t=tyKLoUyGGdh5Mjtv...