Predict Biden's April fundraising haul (update: $51M)

[MR DARK BRANDON]

*Sigh*

I'm finally on the replacement train...

My pride isn't worth standing by Biden anymore.

Because of one month's fundraising haul?  Dang you're fickle.

Have you seen his username?

Anywho yeah this is not a good haul but thankfully biden still has the cash advantage and seems to be putting the money to much better use than Trump

What I don't quite understand is why Biden would suddenly be raising so much less than he did in March. Obviously the numbers speak for themselves, but still. Maybe his ban of TikTok was the tippipng point.

April appears to be a slow month for incumbents ig… idk

[SnowLabrador]

*Sigh*

I'm finally on the replacement train...

My pride isn't worth standing by Biden anymore.

Because of one month's fundraising haul?  Dang you're fickle.

Have you seen his username?

Anywho yeah this is not a good haul but thankfully biden still has the cash advantage and seems to be putting the money to much better use than Trump

What I don't quite understand is why Biden would suddenly be raising so much less than he did in March. Obviously the numbers speak for themselves, but still. Maybe his ban of TikTok was the tippipng point.

April appears to be a slow month for incumbents ig…

I can see why Trump would be raising lots of money right now, given the trials.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

*Sigh*

I'm finally on the replacement train...

My pride isn't worth standing by Biden anymore.

Because of one month's fundraising haul?  Dang you're fickle.

Have you seen his username?

Anywho yeah this is not a good haul but thankfully biden still has the cash advantage and seems to be putting the money to much better use than Trump

What I don't quite understand is why Biden would suddenly be raising so much less than he did in March. Obviously the numbers speak for themselves, but still. Maybe his ban of TikTok was the tippipng point.

April appears to be a slow month for incumbents ig…

I can see why Trump would be raising lots of money right now, given the trials.

Oh same here. Especially since it fires up his base. Didn’t he have like a massive fundraiser a little while back?

[SnowLabrador]

*Sigh*

I'm finally on the replacement train...

My pride isn't worth standing by Biden anymore.

Because of one month's fundraising haul?  Dang you're fickle.

Have you seen his username?

Anywho yeah this is not a good haul but thankfully biden still has the cash advantage and seems to be putting the money to much better use than Trump

What I don't quite understand is why Biden would suddenly be raising so much less than he did in March. Obviously the numbers speak for themselves, but still. Maybe his ban of TikTok was the tippipng point.

April appears to be a slow month for incumbents ig…

I can see why Trump would be raising lots of money right now, given the trials.

Oh same here. Especially since it fires up his base. Didn’t he have like a massive fundraiser a little while back?

Yes, he did. Still, Biden needs to up his game and stop doing everything to please nobody.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

*Sigh*

I'm finally on the replacement train...

My pride isn't worth standing by Biden anymore.

Because of one month's fundraising haul?  Dang you're fickle.

Have you seen his username?

Anywho yeah this is not a good haul but thankfully biden still has the cash advantage and seems to be putting the money to much better use than Trump

What I don't quite understand is why Biden would suddenly be raising so much less than he did in March. Obviously the numbers speak for themselves, but still. Maybe his ban of TikTok was the tippipng point.

April appears to be a slow month for incumbents ig…

I can see why Trump would be raising lots of money right now, given the trials.

Oh same here. Especially since it fires up his base. Didn’t he have like a massive fundraiser a little while back?

Yes, he did. Still, Biden needs to up his game and stop doing everything to please nobody.

I think he needs to play hard to Haley voters. The far left will never vote for him. And Ik progressive Pessimist will disagree with me but I actually think him condemning the Netanyahu arrest was a welcome move in terms of doing that.

I can honestly see what Alben was saying when he said to embrace people like James Carville and show his centrist side. Disaffected moderates are a huge cash prize

[henster]

*Sigh*

I'm finally on the replacement train...

My pride isn't worth standing by Biden anymore.

Because of one month's fundraising haul?  Dang you're fickle.

Have you seen his username?

Anywho yeah this is not a good haul but thankfully biden still has the cash advantage and seems to be putting the money to much better use than Trump

What I don't quite understand is why Biden would suddenly be raising so much less than he did in March. Obviously the numbers speak for themselves, but still. Maybe his ban of TikTok was the tippipng point.

March was inflated because of the Obama/Clinton fundraiser without it there wouldn't have been much different between March & April. As I mentioned before Trump's April haul is even more inflated with his $40M one day fundraiser.

[South Dakota Democrat]

He's roughly in line with where Obama was, so actually not catastrophic for an incumbent. Hard to do a solid comparison for Trump four years ago with COVID wreaking havoc with fundraising that year. 

President Obama and Democrats raised a combined $43.6 million in April with sustained financial support from veteran donors while enlisting thousands of new ones, the Obama campaign announced on Twitter.

The monthly haul does not eclipse the president's best fundraising month of the 2012 campaign - $53 million raised in March.

https://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/obama-democrats-raise-43-6-million-in-april

Not an apples to apples comparison.  Campaign spending has skyrocketed since then.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

He's roughly in line with where Obama was, so actually not catastrophic for an incumbent. Hard to do a solid comparison for Trump four years ago with COVID wreaking havoc with fundraising that year.  

President Obama and Democrats raised a combined $43.6 million in April with sustained financial support from veteran donors while enlisting thousands of new ones, the Obama campaign announced on Twitter.

The monthly haul does not eclipse the president's best fundraising month of the 2012 campaign - $53 million raised in March.

https://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/obama-democrats-raise-43-6-million-in-april

$43.6 million in 2012 is about $60 million today adjusted for inflation, and campaign spending generally outpaces inflation over time.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

That's even worse than I expected. It's not trending the right way.

Fundraising numbers are a poor predictor of elections

Fundraising was one area where Biden had an advantage over Trump, amidst bad polls and issues. Now even this advantage is gone.

[henster]

He's roughly in line with where Obama was, so actually not catastrophic for an incumbent. Hard to do a solid comparison for Trump four years ago with COVID wreaking havoc with fundraising that year.  

President Obama and Democrats raised a combined $43.6 million in April with sustained financial support from veteran donors while enlisting thousands of new ones, the Obama campaign announced on Twitter.

The monthly haul does not eclipse the president's best fundraising month of the 2012 campaign - $53 million raised in March.

https://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/obama-democrats-raise-43-6-million-in-april

Not an apples to apples comparison.  Campaign spending has skyrocketed since then.

Biden has been tracking pretty close to what Obama was raising 12 years ago. So maybe his fundraising has never really been great all along.   

Obama raised $45M Feb-2012
Biden raised $53M Feb-2024
Obama raised $30M Jan-2012
Biden raised $42M Jan-2024

The only huge difference was March where Biden raised $90M compared to Obama's $53M haul, but we know Biden's March haul was inflated with that special fundraiser.

[lfromnj]

He's roughly in line with where Obama was, so actually not catastrophic for an incumbent. Hard to do a solid comparison for Trump four years ago with COVID wreaking havoc with fundraising that year. 

President Obama and Democrats raised a combined $43.6 million in April with sustained financial support from veteran donors while enlisting thousands of new ones, the Obama campaign announced on Twitter.

The monthly haul does not eclipse the president's best fundraising month of the 2012 campaign - $53 million raised in March.

https://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/05/obama-democrats-raise-43-6-million-in-april

Eh it’s pretty bad for a Democratic incumbent considering how much more Democrats across the nation are raising since 2016

[SnowLabrador]

Drop out, Joe. Preserve what little dignity remains.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, $51M is really meh, there's no way around it, especially compared to Feb and March especially.

However, Biden's team still has much more COH - $192M w/ DNC (same as last month) while Trump's team has not given COH for the entire operation (which seems suspect), though his campaign itself has $40M COH (compared to $80M for Biden)

The real thing that will be interesting will once again be small donors.

The campaign committee totals show Trump relied REALLY heavily on PAC money/billionaire donors last month - Biden did $24M (about half of his overall total) while Trump did a paltry $9M (only a fraction of his total)

https://x.com/rpyers/status/1792759246301659538

[Sir Mohamed]

So let me get this straight...

... when Biden greatly overperforms in fundraising, the Atlas consensus basically is "that's worthless because money can't buy elections, HRC also outspent Trump and still lost"

... and when Biden during one month has medicore, but not terrible, fundraising number, it "proves how he's done and should be replaced as a candidate"?

Got it.

[Rubensim]

I got it right that joe raised less than trump
A another W for donnie and a L for joe.

[GAinDC]

So let me get this straight...

... when Biden greatly overperforms in fundraising, the Atlas consensus basically is "that's worthless because money can't buy elections, HRC also outspent Trump and still lost"

... and when Biden during one month has medicore, but not terrible, fundraising number, it "proves how he's done and should be replaced as a candidate"?

Got it.

welcome to Atlas

[President Johnson]

So let me get this straight...

... when Biden greatly overperforms in fundraising, the Atlas consensus basically is "that's worthless because money can't buy elections, HRC also outspent Trump and still lost"

... and when Biden during one month has medicore, but not terrible, fundraising number, it "proves how he's done and should be replaced as a candidate"?

Got it.

Yeah, that's pretty ridiculous. Especially to assume another candidate would just shake things up and cruise to a landslide win. But maybe it's to Biden's advantage that he's constantly underestimated. Election and campaign are often about expectations.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

So let me get this straight...

... when Biden greatly overperforms in fundraising, the Atlas consensus basically is "that's worthless because money can't buy elections, HRC also outspent Trump and still lost"

... and when Biden during one month has medicore, but not terrible, fundraising number, it "proves how he's done and should be replaced as a candidate"?

Got it.

Yeah, that's pretty ridiculous. Especially to assume another candidate would just shake things up and cruise to a landslide win. But maybe it's to Biden's advantage that he's constantly underestimated. Election and campaign are often about expectations.

The minute this came out I said to myself watch fundraising all of a sudden matter to some people

[Comrade Funk]

So let me get this straight...

... when Biden greatly overperforms in fundraising, the Atlas consensus basically is "that's worthless because money can't buy elections, HRC also outspent Trump and still lost"

... and when Biden during one month has medicore, but not terrible, fundraising number, it "proves how he's done and should be replaced as a candidate"?

Got it.

Yeah, that's pretty ridiculous. Especially to assume another candidate would just shake things up and cruise to a landslide win. But maybe it's to Biden's advantage that he's constantly underestimated. Election and campaign are often about expectations.

The minute this came out I said to myself watch fundraising all of a sudden matter to some people

Biden's campaign is dumpster fire regardless of how much $$$ he raises from the MSNBC limo crowd . The last few election cycles highlighted how useless this metric was.

[Eraserhead]

Tbh, I don't think he should be replaced as he won the primary in a landslide (over laughable competition but still). It sure would be awesome he was big enough to put the country and party ahead of himself and step down voluntarily though.

[Eraserhead]

That said, who do the Democrats nominate in that scenario? Harris? She might do even worse. Tough one!

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

That said, who do the Democrats nominate in that scenario? Harris? She might do even worse. Tough one!

Anyone would do better than Biden. Even Harris.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

So let me get this straight...

... when Biden greatly overperforms in fundraising, the Atlas consensus basically is "that's worthless because money can't buy elections, HRC also outspent Trump and still lost"

... and when Biden during one month has medicore, but not terrible, fundraising number, it "proves how he's done and should be replaced as a candidate"?

Got it.

It does not matter, but outspending Trump was supposed to be how Biden would catch up in polling. Now this advantage seems to be gone.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I read this article that talked about how many Jewish GOP donors were incredibly uncomfortable with Trump after Jan 6 and had no plans on backing him ever again. However, after 10/7 and especially recently they are fully on the Trump train once more as they feel Biden is horrible on the policy. Maybe this is why there is a surge for Trump in terms of fundraising now.

https://twitter.com/HaroldKatl3281/status/1792594718418665679

https://jewishinsider.com/2024/05/silicon-valley-donor-jacob-helberg-biden-trump-anti-israel-left/

Some Pro Biden donors from 2020 now back Trump

[President Johnson]

Biden plans another fundraiser with Clinton:

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1795064008870928839