Who will win this?

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trump has pulled away in the sunbelt.

Joe Biden is in a precarious position with the rust belt, but it’s now his only hope and it’s not looking good.

[dspNY]

Too early to call. The verdict in that NYC trial could loom large because pretty much all polling says Trump takes a big hit if he becomes a convicted felon

[Duke of York]

Trump is going to win easily. He’s not getting convicted.

[iceman]

Too early to call. The verdict in that NYC trial could loom large because pretty much all polling says Trump takes a big hit if he becomes a convicted felon

It says otherwise though, according to polls the verdict on the hush trial doesn’t affect the people’s vote at all.

[THKL]

Trump is going to win and i got feeling that he might even get the popular vote
It mid to late may and uh things are not looking Good for joe and with the fact trump have taken the strategy of trying to stay a bit quiet so the media focus on Biden to make him the fool candidate and doing rally in states that either swing or barely support biden it seem like trump going to win this election.

Trump may win, but he'll never, ever win the popular vote.

I wouldn’t be so sure about that, as right now I believe Trump is more likely to win the Popular vote (~70% chance) then to win the Electoral College (~55% chance), with this being due to the fact that I’m projecting California to go Biden+20, New York to go Biden+15, IL/WA/OR/CT/NJ/DE to go Biden+10, NM/CO/VA/MN/ME to go Biden+5, NV/AZ/GA/NC to go Trump+5, and TX/FL/OH/IA to go Trump+10, while the key Rust Belt Bellwether Swing States of PA, MI, and WI go either Trump<1 or Biden<1, with the massive Republican swings/trends throughout the Sun Belt and Safe Democratic States being caused by Hispanics and Asians swinging Republican (I’m projecting both groups to go Biden+20, which is a 13 and 7 point Republican swing from 2020, respectively, with Hispanics swinging Republican due to a combination of Social Conservatism, perception that Trump symbolizes “Machismo”, and the tendency of Second/Third generation Immigrants to assimilate into mainstream White culture and become resentful of new immigrants, particularly “undocumented” ones, and Asians swinging Republican due to Fiscal Conservatism, Anti-Communism/Sinophobia amongst Vietnamese/Koreans/Japanese/Filipinos, Islamophobic Hindu Nationalism amongst many Indian Americans, and the Falun Gong Cult amongst some Chinese Americans, along with the aforementioned Second/Third generation assimilation and resultant resentment of new arrivals), Low Black turnout (I’m projecting them to go Biden+70, a 5 point Republican swing from 2020, due to slightly increased Third Party Voting and Low turnout caused by Bidens failure to pass Criminal Justice Reform and Voting Rights legislation, along with rightful sympathy towards the Palestinian cause in the face of Bidens aiding and abetting of the Genocide of Gaza), Low Young Progressive turnout (rightful anger towards both Bidens aiding and abetting of the Genocide of Gaza and the Sinophobic TikTok ban that destroys Free Speech), and increased Third Party voting amongst Young Progressives (mainly for the Green Party, due to their staunch opposition to the Genocide of Gaza), Never Trump Suburbanites (primarily for RFK due to his staunch Zionism and “Radical Centrist” ideology, and to a lesser extant for the Libertarian Party due to their combination of Fiscal Conservatism and Social/Cultural Liberalism), and Non-Whites (primarily for RFK, and to a lesser extent the Green Party), along with general Low Turnout and increased Third Party voting in Safe States (particularly Democratic ones like New York and California, due to the obvious fact that your vote largely doesn’t matter in these states due to the Electoral College, with this giving disenfranchised Democrats the ability to cast risk free protest votes/absentations in these States), while the small Democratic trend in the Rust Belt is due to Biden’s strength with White Union workers as a result of his explicitly Pro-Union policies (his intervention to support the UAW in their strike is a prime example), along with generally higher turnout in these states because of how critical they are to deciding the election (the high amounts of advertising and campaigning in these states compared to the rest of the country helps exacerbate this), with the caveat that Bidens aiding and abetting of the genocide of Gaza could cause big problems in Michigan, due to the large Arab/Muslim community in Dearborn, though If Biden does the right thing (halting all military aid to Isreal and calling for an immediate Ceasefire, IDF withdrawal from Gaza, and reciprocal Hostage/Prisoner exchange, combined with a explicit path to a Two-State Solution according to the Geneva initiative), then this problem (along with the Low Turnout/Third Party voting problem amongst Young Progressive, and to a lesser extent Black voters) could be solved, ✊!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Too early to call. The verdict in that NYC trial could loom large because pretty much all polling says Trump takes a big hit if he becomes a convicted felon

It says otherwise though, according to polls the verdict on the hush trial doesn’t affect the people’s vote at all.

The truth is somewhere in between.

A general "does a conviction affect your chances of supporting Trump" indeed reflects him losing ground in polling.

However, if it's specifically the hush money trial, the conviction may or may not harm him.

As usual, it's going to depend on how much Americans understand, care, or care to understand. And how long.

I have my fingers crossed that Trump gets convicted and it finally is enough to end him. On the orher hand, I also would not be surprised if he gets acquitted or it doesn't change any opinions. It's maddening, but it's the idiotic country and times we live in.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I voted "too early to call".

While Biden is not well-positioned for re-election, Trump is a terrible candidate who has a chance only because Republicans have become crazed fanatics. (And Democrats are absolutely suffering from having a lack of sane feedback across the aisle.) And both of them are old enough that sudden health failure is a real concern (and setting aside that Mr. Trump has spent almost a decade dog-whistling to his supporters that they should murder his opponents).

The world is increasingly uncertain, a whole flock or black and gray swans lurk offstage, the American infosphere is a mass of radioactive garbage, consumer prices are painfully high, Congress is largely useless (even if it wasn't dealing with Republican madness in the House), the nation is more divided than it's been since the 70s (at least), and Biden is older than anyone doing the job of President ought to be.

Conversely, that there's a real possibility of the Electoral College going to Donald Trump is insane. That his chances are as good as they seem to be is something out of an H.P. Lovecraft novel. If someone had asked anyone here ten years ago, "What are the odds that the Republican nominee in 2024 will be a twice-impeached former President who's running to dodge multiple felonies, and left office in disgrace after a pandemic killed over a million Americans, and after he led a coup attempt?" everyone would have said "zero" or "less than 1 percent".
 
Two major factors are going to control the results of this election:

1) How many voters who would vote for any other Republican candidate will refuse to vote for Donald Trump? And,

2) How many voters who don't approve of Joe Biden's Presidency will vote for him anyway, because they don't want to see President Trump in office again?


I don't know what those numbers will be. I hope they'll both be high enough to make a big difference, but I'm certainly not confident of that. I'm skeptical that anyone has a remotely accurate guess what those numbers will turn out to be. What gets said and repeated by the public, what Mr. Trump and President Biden do, and what happens outside of anyone's control are all going to have a huge influence on those numbers. 

What happens after Labor Day (right up until Election Day) is going to decide this election. I think this is broadly true about all our remotely close elections, but it is especially applicable in this case.
In particular, I think most voters in group #2 above will not make up their minds until October.

[Tekken_Guy]

At this point it’s a pure toss-up. I think the sun belt stack will be Trump’s best swing states and MI/PA Biden’s, with Wisconsin deciding it all.

[Obama24]

Too early to call. The verdict in that NYC trial could loom large because pretty much all polling says Trump takes a big hit if he becomes a convicted felon

This I think is underrated. A lot of people don't recognize that our country has a deep disgust or repulsion for convicted felons (rightly or wrongly) due to centuries of social conditioning. Trump becoming a convicted felon could be the thing that tips the non-hardcore Trump cultists into voting Biden or third party. Very few people in this country on either side want to be associated with a criminal.

[Obama24]

I voted "too early to call".

While Biden is not well-positioned for re-election, Trump is a terrible candidate who has a chance only because Republicans have become crazed fanatics. (And Democrats are absolutely suffering from having a lack of sane feedback across the aisle.) And both of them are old enough that sudden health failure is a real concern (and setting aside that Mr. Trump has spent almost a decade dog-whistling to his supporters that they should murder his opponents).

The world is increasingly uncertain, a whole flock or black and gray swans lurk offstage, the American infosphere is a mass of radioactive garbage, consumer prices are painfully high, Congress is largely useless (even if it wasn't dealing with Republican madness in the House), the nation is more divided than it's been since the 70s (at least), and Biden is older than anyone doing the job of President ought to be.

Conversely, that there's a real possibility of the Electoral College going to Donald Trump is insane. That his chances are as good as they seem to be is something out of an H.P. Lovecraft novel. If someone had asked anyone here ten years ago, "What are the odds that the Republican nominee in 2024 will be a twice-impeached former President who's running to dodge multiple felonies, and left office in disgrace after a pandemic killed over a million Americans, and after he led a coup attempt?" everyone would have said "zero" or "less than 1 percent".
 
Two major factors are going to control the results of this election:

1) How many voters who would vote for any other Republican candidate will refuse to vote for Donald Trump? And,

2) How many voters who don't approve of Joe Biden's Presidency will vote for him anyway, because they don't want to see President Trump in office again?


I don't know what those numbers will be. I hope they'll both be high enough to make a big difference, but I'm certainly not confident of that. I'm skeptical that anyone has a remotely accurate guess what those numbers will turn out to be. What gets said and repeated by the public, what Mr. Trump and President Biden do, and what happens outside of anyone's control are all going to have a huge influence on those numbers. 

What happens after Labor Day (right up until Election Day) is going to decide this election. I think this is broadly true about all our remotely close elections, but it is especially applicable in this case.
In particular, I think most voters in group #2 above will not make up their minds until October.

I agree with this largely but I will say that if the Gaza war is still ongoing by September, and Biden has continued to make strongly voiced words in support of Netanyahu, I feel certain he will (narrowly) lose. Also, if polls still Americans are unhappy with the economy by around October 15th or so, I feel he will lose. I think those two things are relatively safe calls.

[Agonized-Statism]

If Biden gets lucky (the cost of living crisis cools consumer spending but a recession is avoided, war in the Middle East is contained to Gaza, Biden is vague enough at the debates to avoid alienating parts of his coalition with a strong stance on any of the wedge issues), he may only lose two or three states and win a very close one. That could just be me struggling to imagine Trump winning. But there's too many things that probably won't go Biden's way (recession or even just resurgent inflation, hurricane, could get sucked into a war with Iran in an instant, more suppressed protests), and it's Trump's to lose with that in mind. "But Trump" isn't the gotcha to the Democratic base that I'd assumed it was.

[Tekken_Guy]

If Biden gets lucky (the cost of living crisis cools consumer spending but a recession is avoided, war in the Middle East is contained to Gaza, Biden is vague enough at the debates to avoid alienating parts of his coalition with a strong stance on any of the wedge issues), he may only lose two or three states and win a very close one. That could just be me struggling to imagine Trump winning. But there's too many things that probably won't go Biden's way (recession or even just resurgent inflation, hurricane, could get sucked into a war with Iran in an instant, more suppressed protests), and it's Trump's to lose with that in mind. "But Trump" isn't the gotcha to the Democratic base that I'd assumed it was.

Do you think Biden wins any swing states or does Trump sweep the board?

[cherry mandarin]

Do you think Biden wins any of the swing states?

I suspect he probably will.

[SnowLabrador]

Trump easily at this rate.

[PeteB]

While it is definitely too early to call, I did what the OP suggested and chose Biden.  The justification is pretty straightforward - barring a meltdown of the economy and a general recession, I cannot see how Trump can ultimately appeal to more than his core MAGA group.  Of course a lot can change until the election: the trials may actually result in a conviction, the disgruntled Republicans may decide to rejoin the party (especially if someone like Haley is the VP pick), the Gaza situation could drive major abstentions of Biden voters (and cost him some swing states like MI), either candidate can show their age in a public appearance and scare voters off or some foreign affair may impact the public mood significantly.

However at this time, I don't believe that there are enough pro-Trump voters to move him forward.  Biden may not be everyone's cup of tea, but he is sufficiently non-threatening to get a pass, with such a flawed candidate as Trump.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Trump, though neither side is running a good campaign. Biden should just not be running again after 9% inflation.

[ShadowRocket]

While it is definitely too early to call, I did what the OP suggested and chose Biden.  The justification is pretty straightforward - barring a meltdown of the economy and a general recession, I cannot see how Trump can ultimately appeal to more than his core MAGA group.  Of course a lot can change until the election: the trials may actually result in a conviction, the disgruntled Republicans may decide to rejoin the party (especially if someone like Haley is the VP pick), the Gaza situation could drive major abstentions of Biden voters (and cost him some swing states like MI), either candidate can show their age in a public appearance and scare voters off or some foreign affair may impact the public mood significantly.

However at this time, I don't believe that there are enough pro-Trump voters to move him forward.  Biden may not be everyone's cup of tea, but he is sufficiently non-threatening to get a pass, with such a flawed candidate as Trump.

You've pretty much described my thinking.  I still think its way too early to make any firm predictions but I think Biden ultimately ekes it out in the end with the map resembling 2020 minus GA and NV.

[EastwoodS]

Trump is going to win and i got feeling that he might even get the popular vote
It mid to late may and uh things are not looking Good for joe and with the fact trump have taken the strategy of trying to stay a bit quiet so the media focus on Biden to make him the fool candidate and doing rally in states that either swing or barely support biden it seem like trump going to win this election.

Trump may win, but he'll never, ever win the popular vote.

There’s a shift in demographics that seem to be favoring the GOP long term. So it’s possible