MI PrimR: Mason-Dixon: Romney Takes an 8% Lead in MI as McCain Falls

[Gustaf]

I'll laugh when Romney wins next November.

Inks, you seem to be under the delusion that Romney has a snowball's chance in hell of winning the election. May I ask where you get this idea? He can't even win a Republican primary despite running as the most conservative of all the candidates. What makes you think this will gain him independent voters? The guy has consistently polled terribly against everyone. He derives his political career from being scared off from running for reelection because he was so unpopular and thus lost the Republicans a gubernatorial mansion they had held for 2 decades. The guy has proven no political worth whatsoever. Hell, Huckabee is more electable!

Anyway, on topic, bad news for McCain. Still, looks like an outlier to me. The question I'm most interested in is what likely voter screens are being used by pollsters. I expect this primary to be very difficult to poll because of Dems and Indys are likely to vote in the Republican primary to a higher degree than usual.

[Mr. Morden]

so is McCain's New Hampshire bounce over now?

IMO, Yes.

You do realize that the Democrats are rooting for your guy for reasons that are not good, right?

Desiring a brokered convention is a good and noble thing.

I still think a brokered convention is extremely unlikely to happen even if Romney wins MI, though of course that would make it more likely.  I still can't see Giuliani winning FL after getting slaughtered everwhere else (he's still doing OK in FL polls, but remember that he's the only one campaigning and running ads there now....the rest of the field will have 10 days to focus on FL after the SC primary).

That would mean that all the January victories would go to either Huckabee, McCain, and Romney, who would presumably be the 3 main players on Feb. 5th....and I just can't see all of them being exactly even going into Feb. 5th.  You might have two of them who are both strong, with the #3 guy picking off enough states to make things interesting for a while, but barring something really crazy happening, I assume one of them would eventually churn out a victory in the primary season, well before the convention.  If more states on the GOP side used PR like the Dems do, it might be different though....

But anyway, your basic point is right that if the Dems want to create maximum chaos on the GOP side (though I don't think that chaos will lead to a brokered convention), they should root for Romney to win MI.

[Hash]

GO ROMNEY!

[Reaganfan]

Remember too, this poll was taken on the 9th, 10th and wrapped up on the 11th. McCain's gigantic boost came around the 10th and 11th...so it may not be as indicative of McCain's true numbers as they are now.

[agcatter]

Boy, Romney the Republican nominee.  Let that sink in.  He's only down to Obama and Clinton by 18 pts in yesterday's CNN poll. 

Republicans have really become the party of suicide since 2004.  Half my Republican friends want to commit suicide with Romney, the other half with Huckabee.  It's like watching a slow motion train wreak and you can't do anything about it.  Analagous to Democrats watching their party nominate MaGovern in 1972.

I just shake my head.  I have to laugh to keep from crying.  In all honesty, any party this stupid deserves an ass whipping and that's what it's going to be.

[© tweed]

there is a God.  and he's a Mormon.

[Gustaf]

there is a God.  and he's a Mormon.

So He would want his boy Romney to get massacred in a general election?

[Gustaf]

According to the link Romney leads McCain 2-1 among Republicans while McCain leads Romney 38-18 among Independents and Democrats. So I guess it will in large part come down to how many of the latter end up voting in the GOP primary.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Remember too, this poll was taken on the 9th, 10th and wrapped up on the 11th. McCain's gigantic boost came around the 10th and 11th...so it may not be as indicative of McCain's true numbers as they are now.

So you're telling mye that the 9th of January offset 2 days of pro-McCain by 8%.

[Lief 🗽]

Remember too, this poll was taken on the 9th, 10th and wrapped up on the 11th. McCain's gigantic boost came around the 10th and 11th...so it may not be as indicative of McCain's true numbers as they are now.

What gigantic boost?

[Person Man]

I'll laugh when Romney wins next November.

Win what? There's not going to be much of an America after he's through with us.

[Left-Wing Blogger]

MITT!!! MITT!!! MITT!!!

[M]

go romney! you are Rudy's only hope! let's keep the chaos going till Florida!

While this may be true, and I am still loyal to Rudy, I can't share your sentiment in this case. Romney is simply too dangerous. Whatever the cost to Giuliani, I am gunning for my second choice, McCain, all the way against that fakebot.

[The Duke]

Can Michigan Republicans please put down the crack pipe?

Or maybe Rasmussen just has Michigan as wrong as they had Iowa.

[HardRCafé]

Republicans have really become the party of suicide since 2004.  Half my Republican friends want to commit suicide with Romney, the other half with Huckabee.  It's like watching a slow motion train wreak and you can't do anything about it.  Analagous to Democrats watching their party nominate MaGovern in 1972.

I just shake my head.  I have to laugh to keep from crying.  In all honesty, any party this stupid deserves an ass whipping and that's what it's going to be.

As an Illinois Republican, the last thing I wanted was for the national party to adopt our state strategy.  I am sincerely sorry.

P.S.  If Mitt Romney wins the nomination and turns out to be a pervert, please do not switch him out with Alan Keyes.  Kthx.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Boy, Romney the Republican nominee.  Let that sink in.  He's only down to Obama and Clinton by 18 pts in yesterday's CNN poll. 

Republicans have really become the party of suicide since 2004.  Half my Republican friends want to commit suicide with Romney, the other half with Huckabee.  It's like watching a slow motion train wreak and you can't do anything about it.  Analagous to Democrats watching their party nominate MaGovern in 1972.

I just shake my head.  I have to laugh to keep from crying.  In all honesty, any party this stupid deserves an ass whipping and that's what it's going to be.

There is little hope for Romney should he be the Republican nominee.  What worries me most about Huckabee as the GOP nominee is that I think he may actually have a chance in the general.

[HardRCafé]

Romney is the worst Republicans conceivably could do in this election.

Huckabee is the worst Republicans conceivably could do in the longterm.

[M]

Boy, Romney the Republican nominee.  Let that sink in.  He's only down to Obama and Clinton by 18 pts in yesterday's CNN poll. 

Republicans have really become the party of suicide since 2004.  Half my Republican friends want to commit suicide with Romney, the other half with Huckabee.  It's like watching a slow motion train wreak and you can't do anything about it.  Analagous to Democrats watching their party nominate MaGovern in 1972.

I just shake my head.  I have to laugh to keep from crying.  In all honesty, any party this stupid deserves an ass whipping and that's what it's going to be.

There is little hope for Romney should he be the Republican nominee.  What worries me most about Huckabee as the GOP nominee is that I think he may actually have a chance in the general.

Haha... yes on both counts.

[Gustaf]

I couldn't find the internals but i did the math and the poll supposes that 76% of the primary voters will be Republicans with Democrats and Independents making up the remaining 24%. That seems low to me, given the circumstances, but I'm not that well aquainted with the typical numbers in Michigan and elsewhere?

[Mr. Morden]

According to the exit poll:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/primaries/MI/poll.rep.html

in the 2000 GOP primary in MI (when the Dem. primary was being held much later, and many Dems and Indies crossed over to vote McCain), an incredibly low 48% of the voters in the GOP primary identified themselves as Republicans, 35% as Independents, and 17% as Democrats.

According to Mark Blumenthal, in the recent polls to come out of MI, there's definitely a correlation between the likely voter model being used and the relative support for McCain and Romney (if you believe the share of Dems and Indies voting in the GOP primary will be low, then Romney's lead is bigger):

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/notes_on_michigan.php