2012 Map Megathread

[Psychic Octopus]

[/quote]
Obama isn't really shaping to be that great as POTUS. Romney could pull it off.
[/quote]

Maybe, but Obama is not even president.

[pbrower2a]

Comparing Obama 2012 to other re-election efforts against which to judge 2012, should Obama fit the patterns expected with similar success or lack thereof but fitting the partisan balances of the states:

Epic fail (the new Herbert Hoover, 1932):

Obama 59, GOP winner 479 (Maine is in yellow to reflect that the GOP candidate picks off one of the two congressional districts of Maine).

Very Poor (the new Jimmy Carter, 1980):

138 electoral votes if he wins California, 74 if he doesn't; California is shaky even without seismic stress.

Obama 74, GOP winner 464 with Obama losing California 


Obama 128, GOP winner 410 with Obama winning California

Poor (George H.W. Bush, 1992):

Obama 174; GOP winner 364

Marginal failure (Gerald Ford, 1976):

Obama 259, GOP winner 281

Victory that creates little confidence (George W. Bush, 2004)

Twilight Zone scenario (note the gray color for Colorado and Virginia!); script could have been written by Rod Serling.  Republicans have lots of recriminations about dirty-dealings in Virginia and Colorado, both of which are decided in litigation in December. Conspiracy theories abound about this election.

Obama wins 281; GOP loser 257



Bare-but-clean victory (Harry Truman, 1948):

Obama wins with 309 electoral votes, and a third-party candidate picks off IN, OH, AZ for 41 electoral votes, and the GOP candidate loses with 238 electoral votes. Weird, but it has to fit the style of 1948 somehow!

...

Since 1912 no Presidential candidate has won between 304 and 364 electoral votes, inclusive. Taft's percentage of electoral votes in 1912 was about the same as Obama's; Teddy Roosevelt won about the same percentage of electoral votes in his 1904 re-election bid as did Clinton in 1996.   This is an unlikely area for electoral results because someone in a position to lose 315 - 360 electoral votes is likely to take gambles that might barely win, barely lose, or make things far worse.
...

Very successful (Bill Clinton, 1996):

 

Obama wins 376 electoral votes, the GOP nominee loses with 162 electoral votes. (Obama picks up NW-01 and NE-02, explaining the yellow color for Nebraska)

Unqualified success (Dwight Eisenhower, 1956; FDR 1940):

457 electoral votes for Obama, about as everyone expects but the most partisan Republicans. The GOP loser gets NE-03 (but loses Nebraska at large) and picks off 80 other votes (81 total).

Epic success (Ronald Reagan, 1984; Nixon 1972):

525 electoral votes for Obama, and the GOP loser barely wins 13 electoral votes in Utah and Oklahoma. Highly unlikely, but the only people who don't see it coming are the most partisan Republicans. Obituaries are written about the Republican Party, only about half in jest.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Here are some scenarios of how Obama does in 2012, and (what I think are) the corresponding maps.

Spectacular, like FDR 1936 or Reagan 1984:

Great:

Satisfactory:

Netural--the election rests on the most contested states:

Mediocre:

Poor:

Horrible, like Hoover 1932 or Carter 1980:

[Antonio the Sixth]

Vermont will vote democrat.

[You kip if you want to...]

I think New Jersey would flip before New York would. Your "Great" map is my "Okay, but Palin's the GOP candidate" map.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Yes. Jersey and Maine flip before New York, Massachusetts and Vermont.

[You kip if you want to...]

And I couldn't see Washington state staying with Obama either if he's Hoover-league.

[Hash]

Horrible!

478-60

Bad/Poor

405-135

Mediocre

326-212

Neutral 50-50

260-278

Good

211-327

Great

115-423

Excellent!

29-509

[Holmes]

Obama would have to rape a child and shoot his puppy on live TV to lose even New York and California.

[Psychic Octopus]

Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney vs. Jesse Ventura

Obama=Average

Under a normal scenario, the GOP would win narrowly, but now we will forever debate this election ala 1992.

[aaaa2222]

What party would Venture run under? The Reform party is toast now.

[All Along The Watchtower]

What party would Venture run under? The Reform party is toast now.

I assume that Ventura would run as an Independent (if he ran at all).

[pbrower2a]

Post your maps here to see how close/wrong the maps tend to be be!

Note how badly the Republican ticket fares in the South. Southerners are not going to vote for two d@mnyankees who still have to explain their religion or an exotic name.

This race is more interesting if Huckabee bolts from the GOP and runs on the Reform ticket. Southerners are accustomed to voting for third-party racists, and they could easily vote for a third-party, good-ol'boy non-racist like Huckabee.   

Southerners are not going to vote for someone whose religion they don't understand, and they will vote for the fellow that they know (after October 2012 they will know Obama better than they did in 2008) with the funny name instead of some d@mnyankee that they don't know with a funny name.

If Romney gets the Republican nomination, then he had better have a Southerner as a running mate lest  he end up with this sort of electoral defeat or one in which he must run against a third-party candidate from the South.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

FDR '36/Reagan '84:

Ike '52/Bush '88:

Truman '48/Clinton '96:

Carter '76/ Bush '04:

Ford '76/Bush '92:

Carter '80:

Hoover '32:

[defe07]

What party would Venture run under? The Reform party is toast now.

I assume that Ventura would run as an Independent (if he ran at all).

If Ventura runs in 2012, his best bet would be to run as an Independent but with the endorsements of the third parties (but third party running mates).

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Terrible:

Bad: :/

OK:

Great:

Expectational:

Extreme landslide:
                               
                             

[Vepres]

Well, as there seem to be two wings of the GOP at the moment (moderate/libertarians, and social conservatives/populists), I'll make a map for a candidate from each wing.

Above Average Term Obama vs. Social Conservative/Populist (think Palin or Huckabee)

Average Term Obama vs. Social Conservative/Populist

Below Average Term Obama vs. Social Conservative/Populist

Above Average Term Obama vs. Moderate/Libertarian (think Romney, Crist, or Huntsmen(though he probably won't run))

Average Obama Term vs. Moderate/Libertarian

Below Average Obama Term vs. Moderate/Libertarian

Of course, none of these assume extreme success/failure will occur. Obama probably won't be the next Carter nor the next FDR.

[5280]

What my prediction is, this will be different depending on the next 3 years.  If Obama keeps it up with the government programs and such and his approval rating goes down and conflicts going on with countries overseas.

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Romney:

Huckabee:

Palin:

[5280]

Those three maps looks too much in favor for Obama.

[Old Man Willow]

Terrible: :-(

Bad: :-/

OK: :-|

Great: :-)

Expectational: :-o

Extreme landslide: 00
                               |
                               u

Obama will never win MS. Around 50% of the voters in that state will never vote Democrat.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Obama will never win MS. Around 50% of the voters in that state will never vote Democrat.

Democrats (42%) Obama 90%, Republican 10%
Republicans (42%) Obama 10%, Republican 90%
Independent (16%) Obama 45%, Republican 55%

That gives Obama 49.2% of the vote.  He'd have to have very high approvals to get there, but he could do it.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Palin is the GOP nominee, her running mate is another extreme right-winger.

1) The economy has recovered
2) No terrorist attacks during Obama's precidency
3) Succesful Healthcare reform
4) Out of Iraq
5) The GOP continues to scare Latino voters away from their party

The map would look something like this:



However if...

Romney is the GOP nominee, with another moderate as his running mate

1) Economy is still crap
2) Obama has failed on security issues
3) as well as lost on social issues (Healthcare, DADT, Enviorment...)

then I think this is what we'd get:



Obama still wins North Carolina and Georgia, as well as Loisiana, due to a lot of hard-core southern conservatives staying home, not wanting to vote for a moderate mormon. Romney takes Michigan cause of his ties there as well as it's crappy economy.

[You kip if you want to...]

Palin is the GOP nominee, her running mate is another extreme right-winger.

1) The economy has recovered
2) No terrorist attacks during Obama's precidency
3) Succesful Healthcare reform
4) Out of Iraq
5) The GOP continues to scare Latino voters away from their party

The map would look something like this:

Colorado ?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

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*facepalm*

Oy, you're right. How could I forget Colorado?

Colorado would of course also go to Obama in the first scenario.

EDIT: I fixed it now, CO is Democratic as well.