What are the odds that Toomey will be the next junior Senator from PA?

[Torie]

Well given this is one topic that will never die, somebody had to put up this poll. It might as well be me. I am torn between Option 7 and 8 myself.

[Franzl]

I'll say Option 7, but I'm probably being too generous.

[Keystone Phil]

Too early to tell (sane answer)

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, and anyone that doesn't want to give Toomey much of a chance, please who will beat him and why.

I mean, if you're so confident, just give me a run down of the campaign a year in advance. I'd love to make some money off of your predictions.

[Torie]

Ah Phil, life is about odds. We know that there is uncertainty as to what the odds are, on top of the uncertainty as to what the outcome will be, but we still think about it, particularly on this forum.

I take it you are not voting in this poll, eh?  

[Rob]

"Outlook not so good."

[Purple State]

< 10%. He could easily beat Specter, but winning the general is almost out of the question for him. Even moreso if Specter chooses to skip the Republican primary and run as an independent.

[Boris]

maybe similar to Jim Webb's odds in April 2005 - Toomey would need help from his [general election] opponent and the President.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I'll say Option 7, but I'm probably being too generous.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I still don't understand all this talk (hackery?) that Toomey is a sure loser.  Pennsylvania is not Rhode Island, and Toomey doesn't come across as an extremist.  Besides, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum.  So what is all this nonsense?  Have any polls been released yet?

It's also the state that handed Rick Santorum the worst defeat for an incumbent Republican Senator in PA history, and it's increasingly Democratic.

[Rob]

It's also the state that handed Rick Santorum the worst defeat for an incumbent Republican Senator in PA history, and it's increasingly Democratic.

And the socially liberal Specterite southeast keeps growing and growing, which needless to say is not good news for a hard-right enemy of Arlen.

[Keystone Phil]

Even moreso if Specter chooses to skip the Republican primary and run as an independent.

Which has basically been out of the question for awhile now...

I still don't understand all this talk (hackery?) that Toomey is a sure loser.  Pennsylvania is not Rhode Island, and Toomey doesn't come across as an extremist.  Besides, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum.  So what is all this nonsense?  Have any polls been released yet?

It's also the state that handed Rick Santorum the worst defeat for an incumbent Republican Senator in PA history, and it's increasingly Democratic.

Not always going to be 2006/2008, you know.

LOL AND IT WONT ALWAYS BE 1994 PHIL!!11 

Yeah, I know but that doesn't mean Toomey can't win.

[Keystone Phil]

By the way, I only see two sort of acceptable reason why Toomey's odds are horrific. Nothing really about his opponents and the atmosphere. Kind of surprising since so many people here seem to know it so well...

[Mr.Phips]

I still don't understand all this talk (hackery?) that Toomey is a sure loser.  Pennsylvania is not Rhode Island, and Toomey doesn't come across as an extremist.  Besides, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum.  So what is all this nonsense?  Have any polls been released yet?

The state elected Rick Santorum in one of the worst Democratic years of the century and the state was significantly less Democratic then. 

[Marokai Backbeat]

I still don't understand all this talk (hackery?) that Toomey is a sure loser.  Pennsylvania is not Rhode Island, and Toomey doesn't come across as an extremist.  Besides, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum.  So what is all this nonsense?  Have any polls been released yet?

It's also the state that handed Rick Santorum the worst defeat for an incumbent Republican Senator in PA history, and it's increasingly Democratic.

Not always going to be 2006/2008, you know.

LOL AND IT WONT ALWAYS BE 1994 PHIL!!11 

Yeah, I know but that doesn't mean Toomey can't win.

It doesn't have to be a good Democratic year just for Toomey to lose, it would have to be an extraordinarily friendly environment for Republicans for Toomey to win solidly against a competent Democratic opponent. For that matter, Santorum didn't lose in 2006 just because it was a good Democratic year either, he lost because people didn't like him or his positions, and in my bit of editorializing, was a wacko, he just lost by more.

Toomey will have a difficult time convincing a state that voted out a dyed in the wool, true blue Conservative in 2006 by a 18% margin three years ago that he, a person who shares much of Santorum's positions on most things (just without the creepy demeanor) is better than his opponent in a state that is continually trending Democratic. A nominee supported by a shrinking party, narrowing the ideology more and more, will have a difficult time picking up everyone else if he spends the primary going after a longstanding and well respected moderate Republican, and probably isn't going to get many Democrats. This problem will only be compounded if voters continue to trust Obama and the Democratic party to handle the important issues, as they have done for a few years now.

You're probably right, though, about Specter not standing much of a chance either because of the likelihood of a third party challenger, but I can't imagine this would improve the opinion of the hard right. In a straight up match though, Specter would have a much better shot at winning the race than Toomey, it would just require Republicans to suck it up and deal with the fact that sometimes in certain races you have to make compromises and moderate with your candidates. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe are two respected members of the Senate and very popular politicians in New England, but they hold many centrist and moderate positions. You can't always have the candidate you want. It's like expecting Al Franken to win in Indiana.

[Lunar]

How often in history does a candidate who primaries a more moderate candidate win in a moderate state or district?  Not too often.

[Keystone Phil]

I still don't understand all this talk (hackery?) that Toomey is a sure loser.  Pennsylvania is not Rhode Island, and Toomey doesn't come across as an extremist.  Besides, this is the state that elected Rick Santorum.  So what is all this nonsense?  Have any polls been released yet?

It's also the state that handed Rick Santorum the worst defeat for an incumbent Republican Senator in PA history, and it's increasingly Democratic.

Not always going to be 2006/2008, you know.

LOL AND IT WONT ALWAYS BE 1994 PHIL!!11 

Yeah, I know but that doesn't mean Toomey can't win.

It doesn't have to be a good Democratic year just for Toomey to lose, it would have to be an extraordinarily friendly environment for Republicans for Toomey to win solidly against a competent Democratic opponent. For that matter, Santorum didn't lose in 2006 just because it was a good Democratic year either, he lost because people didn't like him or his positions, and in my bit of editorializing, was a wacko, he just lost by more.

No but in a typical midterm type atmosphere, he's not a sure loss either. I never said Toomey needs to win "solidy." You have yet to tell me anything about his opponents or the type of year 2010 will be.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Turnout will favor the GOP in 2010 if it is a typical midterm and you won't have Bob "He does no wrong!" Casey. Jr. as the nominee. Those are two big reasons why Santorum was crushed. If Santorum had to face one of the current potential candidates, there would be no way that he'd lose by 18%. No way.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And maybe moderates/liberals within the party need to suck it up and realize that Arlen has screwed us enough.

Listen, we're not going to see eye to eye on this. I don't want to go through another battle. Just please realize that there is more that will go into this race.

[Ronnie]

At this point in time, this is a stupid topic.  What did we say about Sheldon Whitehouse or Jim Webb's odds in 2005, hmmm?

[Keystone Phil]

At this point in time, this is a stupid topic.  What did we say about Sheldon Whitehouse or Jim Webb's odds in 2005, hmmm?

Adding to that...

What were Kay Hagan's chances in GOP leaning North Carolina against the Republican incumbent?

And LOL @ the idea of anyone ever beating Ted Stevens in Alaska!

[TeePee4Prez]

Oh, and anyone that doesn't want to give Toomey much of a chance, please who will beat him and why.

I mean, if you're so confident, just give me a run down of the campaign a year in advance. I'd love to make some money off of your predictions.

Joe Sestak-  Toomey's odds are about 5%

Joe Torsella- 8%

Pat Murphy- 10%

Jack Wagner- 14%

Allyson Schwartz- 17%

Josh Shapiro- 19%

Bob Brady- 23%

Chaka Fattah- 75%.  Low turnout.

[Rob]

And LOL @ the idea of anyone ever beating Ted Stevens in Alaska!

You're right- Toomey could win if Specter is convicted of a felony! Always look on the bright side.

[Eraserhead]

10-15%.

It appears that'll he'll probably beat Specter at this point, although I'm not going to count Specter out completely yet.

His chances of beating a Democrat in the general? Well... he better hope for one hell of wave. Let's put it like that.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, and anyone that doesn't want to give Toomey much of a chance, please who will beat him and why.

I mean, if you're so confident, just give me a run down of the campaign a year in advance. I'd love to make some money off of your predictions.

Joe Sestak-  Toomey's odds are about 5%

Joe Torsella- 8%

Pat Murphy- 10%

Jack Wagner- 14%

Allyson Schwartz- 17%

Josh Shapiro- 19%

Bob Brady- 23%

Chaka Fattah- 75%.  Low turnout.

I don't know what I ought to laugh at more - the extremely low chance that Toomey has against some of these people (only 23% chance of beating Bob Brady? Put down the beer, Flyers. Seriously. Brady would be smoked. And only a 75% chance of beating Chaka Fattah? Someone is drunk...) or the random numbers you decide to pick.

[Nym90]

If the national environment is good for the GOP (Obama's approval rating is below 50 percent nationally) and the Dems nominate a bad candidate, Toomey will win. But if one of those things fails to happen, he almost certainly loses (he'd only beat a good Dem candidate if Obama has Bush-like approval ratings; if Obama is still popular, he only wins if the Dem is found in bed with a live man or dead woman).

If neither happens, he loses by a pretty decent margin.

I agree he'll probably win the primary, but as Phil said, it's too early to tell for sure.

[Rowan]

10%. We are throwing away this seat. Hopefully Specter can pull it out.