What are the odds that Toomey will be the next junior Senator from PA?

[TeePee4Prez]

10%. We are throwing away this seat. Hopefully Specter can pull it out.

That would be about my overall guess.

The math simply isn't there for Specter.  No union support+moderate suburban Repub defection to Dems+certain CP candidate= Arlen's probably in trouble even if he pulls it off.

I almost think Arlen's pulling a "scorched earth" campaign on our behalf.

[Smash255]

Its early and things can change, but barring Obama having horrible approvals, less than 10%.

The GOP has MAJOR problems in the SE, and Toomey is sure as hell not the type of candidate that can help rectify that situation.   No one has won statewide without winning the Philly suburbs, now that may not mean if you don't win suburban Philly you can't win statewide, however it makes it quite a bit harder.  You at least have to be somewhat competitive there, and you can't get slapped around like a red headed step child, which is what would happen to Toomey, especially going up against Schwartz, Murphy, Sestak.

[riceowl]

factor in the odds that he runs against and beats casey in '12...as the question read, that could make him the next junior senator from PA. 

but those are even lower.

[memphis]

About as likely as he is to win the gold in female gymnastics.

[Brittain33]

By the way, I only see two sort of acceptable reason why Toomey's odds are horrific. Nothing really about his opponents and the atmosphere. Kind of surprising since so many people here seem to know it so well...

I'd compare it to southern Senate elections in 2002 and 2004, when flawed but acceptable Republicans romped to victory because they were in tune with the national and state environment and their states were simply not interested in buying what the Democrats were selling.

It's possible for the Democrats to run someone flagrantly unacceptable, but I think even a merely ok candidate will do well enough to win a decent victory because the conditions are so favorable against a conservative like Toomey.

[Keystone Phil]

10%. We are throwing away this seat. Hopefully Specter can pull it out.

Specter has less of a chance to win.

You at least have to be somewhat competitive there, and you can't get slapped around like a red headed step child, which is what would happen to Toomey, especially going up against Schwartz, Murphy, Sestak.

Toomey would not lose as badly as Santorum and plenty of Dems admit that. The fact that he's not seen as that much of a culture warrior helps and turnout most likely won't favor you guys in 2010 so it won't be 60% to 40% in a lot of these counties again but you'll continue to ignore this just like the rest of your friends here.

It's possible for the Democrats to run someone flagrantly unacceptable, but I think even a merely ok candidate will do well enough to win a decent victory because the conditions are so favorable against a conservative like Toomey.

And how do you know that the conditions are favorable a year and a half out?

[Brittain33]

And how do you know that the conditions are favorable a year and a half out?

It's true, there's some guesswork in that. I factor that into my percentages. I'm basing it on the fact that every party gets a honeymoon, and that the severity of the economic crisis, the duration of Republican control, the Republican Party's current behavior, and Obama's strong political skills point to the honeymoon carrying through long enough to prevent more than a regional backlash in 2010. I do not think 2010 will be like 2006 or 2008, and that Republicans will net seats in the House and that a flawed senator like Chris Dodd is in real trouble whereas he would have survived in an "anyone but Bush" election like the last two. I think a moderately good Democratic year makes most Democratic senate candidates in Pennsylvania unbeatable, and that an average year still gives the Democrat an edge over Toomey because his views and past votes are not currently popular in the state, no matter how good a candidate he may be. I base this as I said before on my experience watching good Dems go down to passable Republicans in senate races that were simply not winnable for us.

You disagree in your assessment of where we're going and how swingy Pennsylvanian voters can be, and that's fine, this is just my assessment and we'll see soon enough how things shape up.

[Keystone Phil]

All I ask is that certain members avoid being so cocky in their predictions. I think we've all learned in the past that the unexpected does happen from time to time and we grossly underestimate certain candidates.

[Smash255]

10%. We are throwing away this seat. Hopefully Specter can pull it out.

Specter has less of a chance to win.

You at least have to be somewhat competitive there, and you can't get slapped around like a red headed step child, which is what would happen to Toomey, especially going up against Schwartz, Murphy, Sestak.

Toomey would not lose as badly as Santorum and plenty of Dems admit that. The fact that he's not seen as that much of a culture warrior helps and turnout most likely won't favor you guys in 2010 so it won't be 60% to 40% in a lot of these counties again but you'll continue to ignore this just like the rest of your friends here.

Toomey might not be as controversial as Santorum, but he is just about as conservative, which won't sit to well with many people in the SE.  Combine that with a likely Dem candidate from the SE that is a good fit in that part of the state (something Casey was not) + the SE being even more Democratic than it was in 06 (something unlikely to change) and you likely have very similar numbers for Toomey in the SE that Santorum had.

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And how do you know that the conditions are favorable a year and a half out?
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[TeePee4Prez]

10%. We are throwing away this seat. Hopefully Specter can pull it out.

Specter has less of a chance to win.

You at least have to be somewhat competitive there, and you can't get slapped around like a red headed step child, which is what would happen to Toomey, especially going up against Schwartz, Murphy, Sestak.

Toomey would not lose as badly as Santorum and plenty of Dems admit that. The fact that he's not seen as that much of a culture warrior helps and turnout most likely won't favor you guys in 2010 so it won't be 60% to 40% in a lot of these counties again but you'll continue to ignore this just like the rest of your friends here.

Toomey might not be as controversial as Santorum, but he is just about as conservative, which won't sit to well with many people in the SE.  Combine that with a likely Dem candidate from the SE that is a good fit in that part of the state (something Casey was not) + the SE being even more Democratic than it was in 06 (something unlikely to change) and you likely have very similar numbers for Toomey in the SE that Santorum had.

And how do you know that the conditions are favorable a year and a half out?
[/quote]
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You have to concede the fact that Toomey will likely emphasize fiscal issues which voters outside of Philadelphia are moderate to still slightly conservative.  Santorum also pissed off many suburban "soccer moms" with some of his comments in his book.  Remember he won that vote in 1994 and 2000.  Toomey has a clean slate with those voters unlike Santorum.  Now, you are right on the fact that the Philadelphia suburbs have shifted dramatically leftward over the past 20 years, but some areas of PA have actually trended conservative namely Western PA (strong McCain swing, VERY strong GOP 'trend') and Northeast (narrow McCain swing, strong trend)/South Philly(see western PA).  We can't be too cocky with Toomey and he still has areas to work with. 

On the other had some areas once considered very conservative have actually trended strongly Dem within the infamous "T" and some have suggested upstate PA maybe trending like a Vermont.  Another interesting state you can compare this to is Massachusetts.  I kinda knew this was gonna happen- Eastern MA swung and trended very strongly GOP while western MA and the Berkshires trended very strongly Dem.  In fact one country in MA, Plymouth, Obama only won by single digits while Gore and Kerry got double.  Could the GOP have a resurgance in the white urban north?  Possibly.  McCain also won on Staten Island while Al Gore also did as well (not counting 2004 for 9/11 purposes).  I could definitely see the GOP looking for a beachhead in places like South Boston, Staten Island, and NE/South Philly.

Phil does have a point.  Who knows what will happen?

[Lunar]

WHO'S IT GONNA BE??

[Smash255]

10%. We are throwing away this seat. Hopefully Specter can pull it out.

Specter has less of a chance to win.

You at least have to be somewhat competitive there, and you can't get slapped around like a red headed step child, which is what would happen to Toomey, especially going up against Schwartz, Murphy, Sestak.

Toomey would not lose as badly as Santorum and plenty of Dems admit that. The fact that he's not seen as that much of a culture warrior helps and turnout most likely won't favor you guys in 2010 so it won't be 60% to 40% in a lot of these counties again but you'll continue to ignore this just like the rest of your friends here.

Toomey might not be as controversial as Santorum, but he is just about as conservative, which won't sit to well with many people in the SE.  Combine that with a likely Dem candidate from the SE that is a good fit in that part of the state (something Casey was not) + the SE being even more Democratic than it was in 06 (something unlikely to change) and you likely have very similar numbers for Toomey in the SE that Santorum had.

And how do you know that the conditions are favorable a year and a half out?

[/quote]

You have to concede the fact that Toomey will likely emphasize fiscal issues which voters outside of Philadelphia are moderate to still slightly conservative.  Santorum also pissed off many suburban "soccer moms" with some of his comments in his book.  Remember he won that vote in 1994 and 2000.  Toomey has a clean slate with those voters unlike Santorum.  Now, you are right on the fact that the Philadelphia suburbs have shifted dramatically leftward over the past 20 years, but some areas of PA have actually trended conservative namely Western PA (strong McCain swing, VERY strong GOP 'trend') and Northeast (narrow McCain swing, strong trend)/South Philly(see western PA).  We can't be too cocky with Toomey and he still has areas to work with. 

On the other had some areas once considered very conservative have actually trended strongly Dem within the infamous "T" and some have suggested upstate PA maybe trending like a Vermont.  Another interesting state you can compare this to is Massachusetts.  I kinda knew this was gonna happen- Eastern MA swung and trended very strongly GOP while western MA and the Berkshires trended very strongly Dem.  In fact one country in MA, Plymouth, Obama only won by single digits while Gore and Kerry got double.  Could the GOP have a resurgance in the white urban north?  Possibly.  McCain also won on Staten Island while Al Gore also did as well (not counting 2004 for 9/11 purposes).  I could definitely see the GOP looking for a beachhead in places like South Boston, Staten Island, and NE/South Philly.

Phil does have a point.  Who knows what will happen?
[/quote]


When you look at the SE and compare it to 2006, you have some factors that favor Toomey, and other factors that do not.  Barring a horrible year for the Dems those factors will likely cancel each other out, and the SE will likely be close to what is was at in 2006. 

[Lunar]

to the thread question:

much less now.  but we'll need to see some polls.  Specter is popular statewide and I doubt he would have made the change  without polling it himself

[bullmoose88]

Odds?

Greater than 0%

[Rowan]

Don't discount a liberal third party candidate/independent popping up if Specter gets the nomination.

[BM]

Yeah, I think this actually improves his chances since he'll have an easy line of attack.  Still slim chances, but he doesn't need such a perfect environment.

[Purple State]

Don't discount a liberal third party candidate/independent popping up if Specter gets the nomination.

Even so, Specter has a major advantage now depending on how he plays his new role as a Dem. But Toomey is just about screwed at this point.

I do agree with Lunar though, I would like to see how all this plays out in polls in the next few weeks.

Yeah, I think this actually improves his chances since he'll have an easy line of attack.  Still slim chances, but he doesn't need such a perfect environment.

Easy line but only popular with those who are already going to vote for him. Dems just want 60 so they won't care. Plus, PA likes the moderates. Specter vs. Toomey in a general election goes to Specter easily.

[Lunar]

Guys, PA isn't a normal state.  It's a machine state.  A significant liberal/third party candidate won't exist unless Arlen shuns labor.

Ironically, Toomey can now move to the center unfettered and doesn't have to run ads bragging about how right-wing he is.

However, I'm not impressed with Toomey's recent judgment skills for how to run campaigns in Democratic-leaning districts and states, let alone Republican ones.

[Keystone Phil]

I love everyone here. I really do. "Yeah, Toomey is screwed now!" God, I just might refuse to show up to vote tomorrow with such bad news!

Easy line but only popular with those who are already going to vote for him. Dems just want 60 so they won't care. Plus, PA likes the moderates. Specter vs. Toomey in a general election goes to Specter easily.

Oh, it's always that simple.    Glad you know the climate already for 2010.

[Purple State]

I love everyone here. I really do. "Yeah, Toomey is screwed now!" God, I just might refuse to show up to vote tomorrow with such bad news!

Easy line but only popular with those who are already going to vote for him. Dems just want 60 so they won't care. Plus, PA likes the moderates. Specter vs. Toomey in a general election goes to Specter easily.

Oh, it's always that simple.    Glad you know the climate already for 2010.

I find it interesting that when you have a situation favorable to your guy you jump on it like it's from God's mouth to your ear, but when the other side has an advantage it's always "too early to tell" and predicting way too far out. If you take a pledge never to predict again any more than one month out, then I will gladly join you, but we both know you can't do it.

Sure, things can change, but the initial reaction to this is Toomey is finished.

[Keystone Phil]

I find it interesting that when you have a situation favorable to your guy you jump on it like it's from God's mouth to your ear, but when the other side has an advantage it's always "too early to tell" and predicting way too far out. If you take a pledge never to predict again any more than one month out, then I will gladly join you, but we both know you can't do it.

I've explained this countless times! That primary would have been much different than a General. My points were based on thirty years of anger with Specter, Toomey's strengths, the absence of Specter's big conservative backers, etc.

You can't compare that type of primary with the climate for a General...unless you were entertaining the idea that the climate would change so drastically within the GOP and tons of PA Republicans would become moderate/left leaning.

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And the initial reaction means nothing. Nothing.

[Purple State]

I find it interesting that when you have a situation favorable to your guy you jump on it like it's from God's mouth to your ear, but when the other side has an advantage it's always "too early to tell" and predicting way too far out. If you take a pledge never to predict again any more than one month out, then I will gladly join you, but we both know you can't do it.

I've explained this countless times! That primary would have been much different than a General. My points were based on thirty years of anger with Specter, Toomey's strengths, the absence of Specter's big conservative backers, etc.

You can't compare that type of primary with the climate for a General...unless you were entertaining the idea that the climate would change so drastically within the GOP and tons of PA Republicans would become moderate/left leaning.

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And the initial reaction means nothing. Nothing.

I wasn't actually referring to anything specific. I haven't been here long enough to become accustomed to your predictions. But what is the point of having this forum on off years if we can't give our initial reactions and long-term predictions? Rather than yell about how it's too far out, why not join the discussion and make it more productive?

[TeePee4Prez]

Now with Specter as a Democrat.... 0.00000000001%

[Marokai Backbeat]

Now with Specter as a Democrat.... 0.00000000001%

Indeed

[WalterMitty]

Now with Specter as a Democrat.... 0.00000000001%

Indeed

correct answer.

though id certainly vote toomey over specter.

hopefully the dems will not nominate specter.