How could Gerald Ford have won 1976?

[Nym90]

I wonder if the debate gaffe made the ultimate difference.  It came down to 6,000 votes in Ohio and 15,000 in Wisconsin.  That was the Presidency.  Both Rust Belt states with huge Eastern European populations, and Ford was actually polling well with those voters before the debate gaffe.  The debate gaffe did not only hurt him with Eastern European voters.  It reinforced the general opinion of him among all voters that he was a bumbling flake in over his head.  I think that had he not made the gaffe in the debate, he still would have lost the popular vote and may have wound up with a Florida 2000 style crisis. 

Seems plausible. Carter had just enough blue-collar appeal to push him over the top in these two critical states in Ford's home region.

He also could've won by just flipping New York; that would've been more of a reach for him but not out of the question as it was within five points. Perhaps if he had kept Rockefeller as his VP instead of Dole. Dole was a poor running mate who got slaughtered in the debate with Mondale ("Democrat wars") and did little to help Ford with any key constituency. He was supposed to appeal to the base, but he was pretty lackluster as a politician.

[Nym90]

Eh, I'm skeptical of that. VP nominees only help by a few points in their home states, and there's no evidence that they help outside of them in bordering states. Carter was the type of Democrat (culturally less liberal) that rural parts of Wisconsin have historically liked. Remember that Humphrey was himself from Minnesota, so I doubt Mondale at the bottom of the ticket would persuade voters unimpressed with Humphrey.

I think the Mondale pick did help Carter shore up his liberal base to some degree, and helped reassure voters concerned with his lack of experience.

[Nym90]

Ford also came extremely close in HI, FWIW.

Yeah, Hawaii likes incumbents....incumbent Republican Presidents have always done surprisingly well there. I remember Michael Barone in his great book "From Roosevelt to Reagan" hypothesizing that Asian-Americans/Pacific Islanders have greater respect for authority/leadership as the explanation, as well as wanting to not be seen as outside the mainstream of American society. I don't agree with many of Barone's musings on the causes of phenomena but he raises valid points worth considering.