Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[Niemeyerite]

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2014/10/1527715-comite-petista-ja-cogita-aceno-de-dilma-a-marina.shtml

Google translate is not that that great.  But from I can gather from this, Rousseff’s PT considers approaching silva

Exactly. That's not a bad bet, considering the PSB has a strong "old left" wing which is still very close to the PT. The "new left" of the PSB would probably prefer going with the PSDB.

Then again, Marina is not from the PSB. And Dilma slammed Marina so hard that I doubt her pride will allow her making mends with Dilma.

Yeah, what Alckmin did for the future of the PSDB today is just incredible. If Aécio doesn't win this election, I'm almost sure Alckmin will be their candidate in 2018 now.

[Niemeyerite]

Having a quick scout around some of the state results for President, does anyone have any idea why Silva increased by 30 points in Pernambuco to win the state, but fell back 6 points in the Federal District?

Are there any other states where the R1 2014 result is vastly different to R1 2010?

Very broadly, we're looking at a swing of about 3 points from the PT to the PSDB?

Thanks

To your first question: the answer is Eduardo Campos.
To your 2nd question: Acre, DF, Pernambuco.
To your 3rd question: I think so.

[Niemeyerite]

I voted for Eduardo Jorge in the first round. Eduardo Jorge is endorsing Aécio Neves now...

But I will vote for Dilma Rousseff.



It is not surprise this endorsement. The Green Party (PV) has already been partner in PSDB administrations.

Same here, probably. I've actually thought about voting for Aécio, but o way I'm doing it, honesly. I'm not sure whether I'll nullify or vote for Dilma...

[Niemeyerite]

The first debate of this runoff is tonight. With the tightness of the race, this is probably the most anticipated debate in 25 years.

After this debate, there will be debates on October 16th, October 19th and October 23rd.

In which channel?

[Niemeyerite]

Rousseff will not be re-elected.

I think she won't, but I wouldn't be so sure. That's why you will be mocked if she loses: being sure of the outcome of elections you know nothing about is risky.

[Niemeyerite]

Rousseff will not be re-elected.

I think she won't, but I wouldn't be so sure. That's why you will be mocked if she loses: being sure of the outcome of elections you know nothing about is risky.

I stand by my previous "infamous" prediction: Sarkozy will be re-elected. I just never said when.

And let's have a little check on yourself, buddy: you complain about arrogance but you are arrogantly sure that I "know nothing about" these races. 

I'm so humble that I think I know almost nothing about Brazil elections, so, obviously, I believe you know nothing about them =p

[Niemeyerite]

Also, the PSDB is usually underpolled nationally.

That may be true for the 1st round, but not for the 2nd.

[Niemeyerite]

Will Ibope be released today, too?

[Niemeyerite]

New Datafoolha poll:

Dilma 47% (+1) ----> 52% (=)
Aécio  43% (=) -----> 48% (=)

[Niemeyerite]

Will Ibope be released today, too?

Only Wednesday.

*Waiting*

[Niemeyerite]

My prediction:

Dilma 51,5%
Aécio 48,5%

[Niemeyerite]

Yikes.

[Niemeyerite]

My prediction:

Dilma 51,5%
Aécio 48,5%

I will now accept my accolades.

[Niemeyerite]

When you look at the states Aecio and Dilma won, the map looks exactly the same as it was in 2010. Aecio ran amazingly well in the South and very well in the Center-West as well. In São Paulo he had an unprecedented win. If it weren't for the Northeast firewall, Aecio would have won.

Tensions will be huge and Dilma probably won't try to reconcile with the areas that largely rejected her. That's a dangerous recipe.

Why are you so sure of that? I'm almost sure she'll try to reconcile with Sao Paulo, at least.

[Niemeyerite]

"JULIOOOOOOOOOO !"



...

Julio, you beat my prediction by 0.01% (!!!)

Still, congrats !

Thanks, Tender! Your prediction was very good, actually... But, TBH, my official prediction (I made an excel about it) was Dilma 54.54%, so even closer to what happened!

Lula 2018!

[Niemeyerite]

Seriously, one can't possibly predict 2018 election at this point. Just look how unpredictable this election was.

That. PSDB had to win in order to get a good night yesterday, and they didn't. Thinking this is good news for the PT opposition is nonsense.