Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread

[lilTommy]

Irony alert: Ford blasting Tory for being a sexist 1%.

... Pot calling the kettle black

[RogueBeaver]

Kouvalis is with Tory.

[RogueBeaver]

Tom Allison is about to join Tory.

[Poirot]

In Ottawa's Innes ward Jody Mitic is a candidate. I know nothing about Ottawa politics but he was on The Amazing race Canada. he is the former army sniper with prostetic legs.

I read in Orléans ward Bob Monette is running again. He had stated he would go after two mandates but changed mind.

[Hatman 🍁]

In Ottawa's Innes ward Jody Mitic is a candidate. I know nothing about Ottawa politics but he was on The Amazing race Canada. he is the former army sniper with prostetic legs.

I read in Orléans ward Bob Monette is running again. He had stated he would go after two mandates but changed mind.

Innes is an open seat, but I don't know Mitic, as I dont watch that show.

Monette is a bit of a terrible person, or at least his politics are terrible (side note: my mother and his wife used to work with eachother)  He used to be a Liberal, but he's a true blue Conservative now. Whenever he opens his mouth about something political, I usually feel quite revolted.

[RogueBeaver]

Tory's running.

[RogueBeaver]

Chow will decide next month.

[Hatman 🍁]

New FR poll:

Chow - 31
Ford - 31
Tory - 27

Tory's candidacy hurts Chow the most, as the battle is for non-Ford voters, as Ford nation will back him no matter what. The more candidates that run, the better shot Ford has of winning.

[DL]

New FR poll:

Chow - 31
Ford - 31
Tory - 27

Tory's candidacy hurts Chow the most, as the battle is for non-Ford voters, as Ford nation will back him no matter what. The more candidates that run, the better shot Ford has of winning.

Actually its good for Chow to have Tory in the race. He's a turn off to working class Ford supporters who see him as a stuffy Rosedale blue blood...and that means that "soft" Ford supporters will likely go Chow over Tory as Ford inevitably erodes (esp. with the stories about how he has lost his entire database from the last election!). Its also good news for Chow that Tory has helped to totally marginalize Karen Stintz. Even though people "in the know" see Stintz as a rightwing Tory - to the average low information voter - she is a young photogenic woman who got into a fight with Rob Ford...if she got any traction she could actually draw votes from Chow in a way that Tory never can.

Its a long way to October, but if you are Olivia Chow there are worse places to be than facing FOUR rightwing opponents and zero competition on the left (apart from a few people who think Stintz is progressive in a case of "mistaken identity") 

[Hatman 🍁]

There's no such thing as a soft Ford voter. No one is close to being undecided about Ford. Either you love him or you hate him.

There will be far more Chow - Tory swing voters (They are called Liberals, of which there are many in Toronto ) than Tory - Ford.  

As odd as it seems, John Tory is a threat to Chow, so she needs to work on winning over Liberals. Being ahead of Tory in the polls will certainly help. She better jump in soon before Tory becomes the de facto non-Ford candidate. Luckily, Tory has a ceiling of his own due to not being able to access most right wing Toronto voters (many of whom would probably stay home to be honest, if Ford wasn't on the ballot, and Tory was)

[DL]

There are soft ford voters. His hardcore vote is probably about 20% and there is another 10% who are parked with him until they see who else is running and until they see who seems to represent them. Most of that soft 10% are low income visible minorities.

[Hatman 🍁]

How can anyone be a soft Rob Ford voter, letalone 1/3 of his base??

After all he has been through, anyone who still supports him is not going to magically stop supporting him. Every poll shows his approval at 40%, and has not wavered since his first scandal. There is very little that can possibly shake his base. He'd literally have to kill someone I think, at this point to shake his base apart.

Any "soft Rob Ford voter" left his camp after the first few scandals happened 3 years ago.

John Tory knows this, and that's why he's not going to attack Rob Ford during the campaign, because there is nothing to gain from it. The real campaign will between Tory and Chow to see who can get the anti-Ford vote. 

[RogueBeaver]

Fords continue their feud with Blair.

[DL]

How can anyone be a soft Rob Ford voter, let alone 1/3 of his base??

Very easily...we are still in the "phony war" phase of the campaign and most people don't even know who is running against him...I think there are people who are parked with Ford because they don't know who else out there might appeal to them and other candidates are still hypothetical.

Tory will go after Ford because he will try to get Ford's people to vote "strategically" for him to stop Chow...but who knows what happens to Ford's voters if we get into Oct. and he is consistently a poor third in the polls and people start to give up on him as having a chance...not to mention the very strong likelihood that he will be criminally charged before election day.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think you're underestimating how loyal Ford's supporters are. I would love to meet this mythical soft Ford voter and ask them why they would possibly dither on such a controversial person.

It's true that the campaign is in its early days, but I don't think that matters due to the media spotlight on Rob Ford. Everyone knows who he is and everyone has an opinion of him.

Ford's support will remain at 30% well into the campaign, which will make it impossible for him to slip into the "poor third" category. 30% could put him in third, but if he is in third, it would be a close third. If it were possible for Ford's support to drop to 20%, I could agree with you, but again, he'd have to literally murder someone for that to happen at this point.

[DL]

I have seen polls where at least a third of people who now say they would vote for Ford also say they may change their mind and are not at all certain about it...I also think that the Ford campaign will be very challenged when it comes to getting their vote (such that it exists) out - by all accounts his money has totally dried up and no one is donating to him and his entire database went out the door with Nick Kouvalis...

Having Ford attack the police today and have Tory denounce him for it creates an amusing civil war among rightwingers in Toronto who are usually very pro-police!

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll believe it when I see it.  Polls have also proven that those people haven't actually budged in their support in the last three years.

[RogueBeaver]

Chow will be entering in 2 weeks.

[RogueBeaver]

Chow's entering tomorrow and resigning her seat. From the Globe - can't link because I've used up my 10 free articles already.

[lilTommy]

Chow's entering tomorrow and resigning her seat. From the Globe - can't link because I've used up my 10 free articles already.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/olivia-chow-jumps-into-toronto-mayoral-contest/article17449400/

[Hatman 🍁]

Good news!

New FR poll for Toronto (change from last poll):

Chow: 36 (+5)
Ford: 28 (-3)
Tory: 22 (-5)
Stintz: 5 (-1)
Soknacki: 2 (n/c)

Like I said, Chow's support comes from Tory more than Ford.

[DL]

But but we were told that Ford's absolute FLOOR was 30 or even 35% and that he could never possibly conceivably get less than that - now the latest poll has him at 28% - and I think that is likely his ceiling more than his floor.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

People shouldn't forget that Ford was/is to many of his voters a protest candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

But but we were told that Ford's absolute FLOOR was 30 or even 35% and that he could never possibly conceivably get less than that - now the latest poll has him at 28% - and I think that is likely his ceiling more than his floor.

28% is within the margin of error of 30%. And you're right about that being his ceiling. It's his ceiling, and his floor.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, but how do you know that?