2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.
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Author Topic: 2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.  (Read 116417 times)
Holmes
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« Reply #450 on: October 04, 2011, 08:25:24 PM »
Swan River will be fierce.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #451 on: October 04, 2011, 08:25:50 PM »
CBC's live feed just cut off... but I reloaded. its cool.
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Holmes
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« Reply #452 on: October 04, 2011, 08:30:52 PM »
Liberals in third in River Heights. Who thinks they'll hold on?
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #453 on: October 04, 2011, 08:31:06 PM »
Funny how you Canadians pronounce names like 'De Groot'.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #454 on: October 04, 2011, 08:32:16 PM »
There's a riding named "Flin Flon"? I'm not sure if that's better or worse than Gimli.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #455 on: October 04, 2011, 08:34:57 PM »
CTV I heard has called it for the NDP.  It will still be interesting to see if the win the popular vote though as the PCs tend to rack up huge numbers in the Rural South so less efficient in their vote.
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Holmes
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« Reply #456 on: October 04, 2011, 08:35:59 PM »
Quite the backlash against the NDP in Interlake and Swan River, as somewhat expected. I was hoping the NDP could do better in Swan River, but the night's not over yet...

PC doing better than expect in Fort Richmond and River East too.
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Hash
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« Reply #457 on: October 04, 2011, 08:38:03 PM »
Why the backlash against the NDP in Interlake/Swan River?
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Smid
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« Reply #458 on: October 04, 2011, 08:38:42 PM »
I'm enjoying the map on the Elections Manitoba website. River East the Liberals are back ahead again - I'm sure there will be the potential for large-ish changes depending on which polls report in until a majority of them have been counted, then it should settle down a bit.
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Holmes
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« Reply #459 on: October 04, 2011, 08:39:03 PM »
Quote from: Tim Tax-Grab Hudak on October 04, 2011, 08:38:03 PM
Why the backlash against the NDP in Interlake/Swan River?

Flood.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #460 on: October 04, 2011, 08:39:44 PM »
If the CBC won't call it, I will: NDP majority.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #461 on: October 04, 2011, 08:39:58 PM »
Liberal leader leading now in River Heights.  Up 41.85% to 39.08% over PCs.  NDP far behind at 15.97%
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mileslunn
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« Reply #462 on: October 04, 2011, 08:40:48 PM »
Every network except CBC has called it, so I think we can say it is an NDP majority.  Pretty historic.  History may also be made on Thursday if the Liberals in Ontario get the third back to back majority in over 100 years.
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Holmes
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« Reply #463 on: October 04, 2011, 08:40:53 PM »
NDP back up in Interlake! 19 votes apart though.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #464 on: October 04, 2011, 08:41:36 PM »
Remember to be a little careful with some individual ridings; it's still comparatively early.

But, yeah, right now it would be surprising if the NDP lost. Remarkable electoral comeback by the look of it.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #465 on: October 04, 2011, 08:42:51 PM »
Anybody think the NDP will win the popular vote or do you think the PCs will win that?
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #466 on: October 04, 2011, 08:43:02 PM »
Anyone else bothered by a large NDP majority on a minority of the popular vote?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #467 on: October 04, 2011, 08:44:46 PM »
Quote from: Dan the Roman on October 04, 2011, 08:43:02 PM
Anyone else bothered by a large NDP majority on a minority of the popular vote?

Its happened elsewhere, although not as large.  Charest won the popular vote in 1998, Campbell in 1996, Lord in 2006, and Hermanson in 1999 albeit those were rather narrow wins.  Also Trudeau beat Joe Clark in 1979 by 4.5% in votes yet won more than 20 seats fewer.
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Holmes
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« Reply #468 on: October 04, 2011, 08:45:14 PM »
Quote from: Dan the Roman on October 04, 2011, 08:43:02 PM
Anyone else bothered by a large NDP majority on a minority of the popular vote?

Surprised yes, but not bothered. The wrong places swung to the PCs for them to make any real gains. That's their weakness in Manitoba. It's somewhat what I'm expecting in Ontario too on Thursday - Liberals having a last minute "surge", but not anywhere that it'll make a real difference.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
nickjbor
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« Reply #469 on: October 04, 2011, 08:45:52 PM »
Quote from: Dan the Roman on October 04, 2011, 08:43:02 PM
Anyone else bothered by a large NDP majority on a minority of the popular vote?
It's happened lots before in lots of places in canada.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #470 on: October 04, 2011, 08:47:04 PM »
Looks like I overestimated the PC strength. Damn, maybe 308 will get it closer than me.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #471 on: October 04, 2011, 08:47:32 PM »
NDP could still wind up with 3-4 seats less than the 36b being projected on CBC, right?

And yeah, this is not an ad for FPTP, but still a good evening for Manitoba.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #472 on: October 04, 2011, 08:47:51 PM »
Quote from: Teddy (SoFE) on October 04, 2011, 08:45:52 PM
Quote from: Dan the Roman on October 04, 2011, 08:43:02 PM
Anyone else bothered by a large NDP majority on a minority of the popular vote?
It's happened lots before in lots of places in canada.


 Usually its a lot closer though.  If it wasn't only a slim majority for the NDP and slim popular vote for PCs, that would be fine.  Mind you, the system at least forces parties to have support throughout the province not through racking up massive margins in one area.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #473 on: October 04, 2011, 08:48:10 PM »
Quote from: Dan the Roman on October 04, 2011, 08:43:02 PM
Anyone else bothered by a large NDP majority on a minority of the popular vote?

It doesn't seem very surprising, from my perspective. The PCs seem like they ring up huge majorities in their ridings in the south, but aren't breaking through much anywhere else.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #474 on: October 04, 2011, 08:49:26 PM »
Another thing, if you look at elected vs. just leading, you notice most ridings the PCs are ahead in they have been declared elected whereas the NDP is leading, thus that likely means the PCs are winning be bigger margins in the ridings they are ahead in.
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