2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Smid]

I'm surprised about Dawson Trail - it looked very Tory on paper, the NDP incumbent left the seat... I expected it to almost certainly be Tory but it's not even close.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone else bothered by a large NDP majority on a minority of the popular vote?

It doesn't seem very surprising, from my perspective. The PCs seem like they ring up huge majorities in their ridings in the south, but aren't breaking through much anywhere else.

And given that Winnipeg is hardly Barnsley-on-the-Prairies, it isn't as though that isn't partially their own fault...

[Holmes]

Interlake and Swan River have swapped. Swan River looks like it's heading for an NDP hold, Interlake still competitive. Looks like the PCs will hold Brandon West and River East, as well.

[mileslunn]

I'm surprised about Dawson Trail - it looked very Tory on paper, the NDP incumbent left the seat... I expected it to almost certainly be Tory but it's not even close.

I think it has a large Francophone community.  Not sure though why federally this area goes massively Tory as the Tories federally are hardly any better at being champions of linguistic minorities, albeit not openly hostile like the Reform Party was.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The CBC just called it for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

308's going to get this one right

[Marokai Backbeat]

About time the CBC finally called it for the NDP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interlake and Swan River have swapped. Swan River looks like it's heading for an NDP hold, Interlake still competitive. Looks like the PCs will hold Brandon West and River East, as well.

Not much of Swan River is in yet. Interlake does look like a nailbiter though...

[mileslunn]

308's going to get this one right

Looks like it.  I think he even projected a Tory lead in popular vote but 15 seat deficit.

[Hatman 🍁]

308's going to get this one right

Looks like it.  I think he even projected a Tory lead in popular vote but 15 seat deficit.

He didn't, actually. Meh. I'll get Ontario right

[Holmes]

308's going to get this one right

Popular vote will be wrong though. I guess the moral of the story is that it's okay to be a bit risky with the popular vote when it comes to Manitoba elections.

[mileslunn]

It is closing a bit.  Usually urban ridings come in slower so there is an outside chance the NDP will narrowly win the popular vote.  That would be that much better for them.

[Holmes]

Interlake and Swan River have swapped. Swan River looks like it's heading for an NDP hold, Interlake still competitive. Looks like the PCs will hold Brandon West and River East, as well.

Not much of Swan River is in yet. Interlake does look like a nailbiter though...

Swan River has become a 300 vote lead for NDP, so it's getting close. Interlake is back to NDP, by 8 votes... I dunno if they can hold on though. (now 3 votes)

Who is John Zasitko, does anyone know? Independent in Interlake.

[mileslunn]

The NDP has narrowly pulled ahead in the popular vote, so maybe they will win that too.

[Marokai Backbeat]

It is closing a bit.  Usually urban ridings come in slower so there is an outside chance the NDP will narrowly win the popular vote.  That would be that much better for them.

Yeah, NDP are picking up in the popular vote bit by bit.

[Holmes]

Well, the night's basically over. I believe the chances of Kirkfield Park flipping to PC are the same as River East or Brandon West flipping to NDP... not very great, with so little polls left to report. So just waiting on Interlake and Swan River, really.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Gerrard hints that he will quit as Liberal leader, but stay as MLA

[Marokai Backbeat]

NDP popular vote at 45.6% to the PC's 44.3%. Slightly more sensible than the tally earlier.

[mileslunn]

Looks like the NDP will win the popular vote, not by much but however you look at this a pretty strong achievement.  Not to undermine the rebound of the NDP, but I do get the impression it seems people like to stay with the party they know during difficult times thus why you see the Liberals polling ahead in Ontario.

[MaxQue]

I loving Radio-Canada website.

Apparently, the ridings have official French names.

"Seine River" is "Rivière-Seine"
"Interlake" is "Entre-les-Lacs"
"Dawson Trail" is "Chemin-Dawson"

It is quite dumb.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

McFadyen is stepping down.

Too bad nobody could hear his speech. Selinger decided to start as to interrupt McFadyen. You can't tell me that was not intentional.

[mileslunn]

Interesting McFayden stepped down so easily.  While not the ideal outcome for the PCs, it would hardly call it unmitigated disaster.  This seemed more the case of Selinger improving his popularity thus being re-elected, not like here in Ontario where McGuinty has flatlined in popularity and only gone up due to Hudak's drop in popularity.  I wonder if Hudak will do the same, although lets see what the actual results are before speculating.  It does though look like all five provinces this fall will stick with the same party.  I do wonder if this has less to do with moving right or left and more during difficult times, people prefer to stick with what they know rather than try something different.

[Hatman 🍁]

For what it's worth, I only got 3 ridings wrong (Southdale, Swan River and Dawson Trail)

[ag]

How are the elections resolved in case of a tie?  I mean, w/ 3 polls to go in St. Norbert, PC is ahead by 7 votes

[Smid]

High turnout (>75%) in River Heights... I guess the expected tight margin played a role in that.