Japan Lower House election - Dec 14, 2014

[jaichind]

Asahi surveyed all candidates from all parities and found their positions on various issues put averages by party together in one app.  This can give us an idea what the position from various parties.

http://www.asahi.com/senkyo/sousenkyo47/asahitodai/

click on 政党比較 or party comparison

First, to measure the level of revisionist convictions, the best way is to look at the answer for visiting the Yasukuni Shrine [首相には靖国神社に参拝してほしい] (I myself have been there once already in one of my trips to Tokyo, it is a nice place and too bad it is caught up in such controversy.  As a Chinese nationalist myself I have some sympathy toward the Japanese nationalists and their desire to express their nationalist pride in some way).  Here we find that LDP is moderate revisionist, with PFG very revisionist.  KP, PLP, JCP, SDP are of course all dovish and highly anti-revisionist.  As I pointed out before, DPJ is anti-revisionist but much less so.  JIP is between DPJ and LDP but lean anti-revisionist.  HRP is the most extreme revisionist party.  Of course HRP is led by a cult leader that claims that Margaret Thatcher came to him in a dream saying that the PRC and North Korea will invade Japan and that Japan must strike first to prevent this invasion.  

Of course the main reason why JIP is considered a revisionist party is that it is for changing the constitution like LDP and PFG.  See 「憲法を改正すべきだ」という意見に、賛成ですか].  But here I think what JIP's angle is much less about militarization which is the angle of parts of LDP (including Abe) and PFG but about devolution of power to the prefectural level.  Here we find even dovish or psudo-dovish parties like DPJ KP and PLP being neutral on this topic.  

On the question of how well the economy is doing relative to last year [今の景気は１年前と比べるとどうでしょうか] it is not a surprise that ruling parties (LDP and KP) claims it is better and opposition parties claims it is worse.

On the topic of nuclear restart [原子力規制委員会の審査に合格した原子力発電所は運転を再開すべきだ]. LDP and to some extent KP and PFG are for restarting nuclear power plants while DPJ are somewhat against.  JIP is coming out pretty strongly against it.

A good proxy for social issues views would be if a couple have legally the right to ask for a women not to change her last name when she gets married [夫婦が望む場合には、結婚後も夫婦がそれぞれ結婚前の名字を称することを、法律で認めるべきだ].  Here LDP is fairly conservative with PFG even more conservative.  JIP is in the middle and DPJ and KP being somewhat liberal on this issue.  Here, Abe's talk of womeneconomics collide with his own party.  Abe publically push for an more inclusive working environment for women but his party would not legally allow a women to keep her maiden name even though her husband supports it.  It is not that huge of a deal but does seem to show that the LDP base is not with Abe on this issue.

What this survey shows is that JIP, other than some statements by Hashimoto in the past, is now a fairly middle of the road moderate center-right party which is fairly close to the centrist DPJ.  Of course I think JIP, which decided to have tactical alliances with DPJ, has aligned their views to some extent to be more consist with DPJ where possible.

[jaichind]

The DPJ isn't a European-style left-wing party. As in many other democracies, the generic-European left is a deeply unpopular idea in Japan.

I tend to think of DPJ as more like the Liberal Party of Canada and not like a generic Western Leftist party.  Using the Canada analogy.  SDP is more like the New Democrats and LDP the Conservatives. 

[jaichind]

Another winner in this election I think will be KP.  Once I did a district by district analysis I take back my view that KP will lose seats.  I am of the opinion that KP will keep all its FPTP seats with the possible exception of its Hokkidao seats.  But I expect it to gain 2 or even more seats on the PR.  Also, if the election does not turn into a maga landslide for LDP which the media projects and which I reject, then the implosion of YP and alignment of JIP with DPJ means that LDP has no alterative to KP as an ally.  The revisionist wing of LDP has always wanted to dump KP and replace them with JRP and YP.  Now that seems not possible as PFG is a poor and non-starter replacement for JRP and YP.  This will increase KP's leverage in the ruling alliance.

[EPG]

OK, so then it seems Abe has little to lose from this election. He's not going to get a constitutional-revisionist super-majority anyway, due to the actions of the other parties. Nor is he going to lose a majority with KP. DPJ appear to gain too. The losers look like smaller groups who have been forced to fragment and polarise pro- or anti-LDP.

[jaichind]

Sankei poll

LDP    37.5%
DPJ     13.2%
JIP      10.7%
KP        8.2%
JCP       5.2%
FPG      1.5%
PLP       1.9%
SDP      1.4%

Big jump for JIP.  I think PFG is undercounted and PFG will do better than PLP and SDP although it is still a dud

Seat projections which I disagree with still has massive 300+ seats for LDP. 

[jaichind]

Mainichi came out with some projects but also had some seat by seats projections which actually helped me calibrate my own model so I will be changing some of my projections based on the info Mainichi provided even as I disagree with their projections.  They have

LDP   303-320
KP       33-36
DPJ      65-81
JIP       23-29

They did admit that 40% of the FPTP voters did not indicate a preference.  They and other polls assume it will break down 50/50 between LDP/KP and opposition and I assume they will break for opposition.

Anyway, they came up with a list of seats where the opposition (they defined opposition as DPJ JIP PFG PLP and SDP) came up with one candidate.   They then categorized them into LDP leading, tossups, and opposition leading.



I did not use this methodology as I viewed PFG as quite distinct from the other 4 even as I admit there are cases where the other four did for tactical reasons try to withdraw from seats where they have zero chance anyway and it seems PFG could have shot.  But these number of seats are tiny.  The problem with this approach is they do not analyze all sorts of seats where {DPJ JIP PLP and SDP} came to an agreement AND FPG is running AND FPG is more likely to take away LDP votes making it harder for LDP to win.

It seems that Maninichi's method is to just assume that any seat where more than one of {DPJ JIP PLP  SDP PFG} is running LDP will automatically win.  In fact in many cases PFG will take votes from LDP/NK all things equal and in some other cases support levels for one of the two opposition levels are high enough that the other opposition will not stop it from beating LDP/NK.

[jaichind]

NHK poll has

LDP    38.1%
DPJ     11.7%
JIP      3.7%
KP       5.9%
PFG     0.1%
JCP      4.3%
PLP      0.3%
SDP     0.9%

[jaichind]

PR vote polls are all over the place. but I have a theory.  I take  LDP+KP of all these polls (other than Kyodo) and they all come out to be around 44%-46%.  I think in the end LDP+KP will be what they poll plus 1% or 2%.  That is the basis of my projections which has lower LDP+KP seats.  If I am wrong then the media polls are right and it will be a super LDP+KP landslide.  We will see Sunday.

[Vega]

If the DPJ can at least hit 60 seats, I'll be somewhat happy.

[jaichind]

OK, so then it seems Abe has little to lose from this election. He's not going to get a constitutional-revisionist super-majority anyway, due to the actions of the other parties. Nor is he going to lose a majority with KP. DPJ appear to gain too. The losers look like smaller groups who have been forced to fragment and polarise pro- or anti-LDP.

Yep, in fact Abe has everything to gain by doing this as long as he exceeds expectations (which he is doing everything to make as low as possible.)  This is because in Sept 2015 is the LDP presidential elections where Abe will have to run for re-election.  He wants to make sure that he wins that race and having won re-election in the general election within the last year should be enough for him to win. Since he ha to step down as president of LDP and ergo the PM post in Sept 2018 anyway, having the general election in Dec 2016 does not extend his reign as PM.  In fact there is a risk that the political economic environment in Sept 2015 would be a lot worse than today and without just winning reelection for the LDP Abe could risk a challenge from the LDP ranks.

This dynamic is another reason why I think LDP will do worse than polls show.  Surely enough people in the Japanese electorate can see through what Abe is up to.  Its like a kid that wants his allowance money now before he shows you his report card later.  It tells you the report card is not that good.

[jaichind]

Kyodo poll forecasts.  Pretty much fits all to others, LDP around 317 seats, KP 34 around, DPJ around 70.  Looking at their forecasts on the PR seats I can infer their vote share prediction is around

LDP  39
KP    14
DPJ   20
JIP    10
JCP   10
PFG    2
PLP     2
SDP    2
Others 1

Well, if they have LDP-KP at 53% of the PR vote which exceeds the Koizumi 2005 landslide vote share of 51.5% for LDP-KP, then for sure LDP-KP will win 340+ seats.  The question is will they win that many votes because of low turnout.  All the media poll models has the low turnout hitting the DPJ JIP vote base relative to 2012 which was already a record low turnout which depressed the DPJ vote.  Now the thinking it that the DPJ turnout will go down some more without decreasing LDP turnout.  I think not and this time LDP turnout will be low too.

My projections deviate from all the media projections.  I think LDP-KP will be around 285 seats as the DPJ and JIP vote projections are underestimated.  I also think PFG is underestimated.  Given everyone thinks LDP has this in the bag, the radical nationalist vote will go to PFG rather than tactically go for LDP.

I think PR vote will be something like

LDP   31%
KP     15%
DPJ    24.3%
JIP     12%
JCP     10%
PFG     3%
PLP     2%
SDP    2%
HRP    0.4%
Other  0.3%
 

[Vega]

Considering how Japan needs stability, the term limit on being President of the LDP and therefore Prime Minister is a little bit odd.

Does the DPJ have a similar term limit?

[jaichind]

Considering how Japan needs stability, the term limit on being President of the LDP and therefore Prime Minister is a little bit odd.

Does the DPJ have a similar term limit?

The reason why LDP has this run is because traditionally, LDP is merely an alliance of a number of disparate factions and local political machines.  Various faction leaders want their turn at being PM so for a time the term limit was actually 2 2-year terms.  It was changed for Koizumi so he can stay head of LDP for longer to be 2 3-year terms.  There is a saying <If you win, you are LDP> which means as long as you can win with your political organization then LDP welcomes you into the ranks to add to the power of the party despite being against the LDP or betraying the LDP in the past.  By the same logic LDP regimes has cabinet reshuffles often because the tier of LDP leaders below that of the factional leaders also want their turn to be minister.

I am not aware of such a rule in DPJ although it would not surprise me in conformist Japan if they copied this LDP law.

I think Abe, if he really wanted to stay past 2016, can get the rules changed.  I do not thing he will.  I think deep down he wants to change the Japaneses Constitution to remove the constraints on military and foreign policy.  His plan, I think, is this.  Win 2014 Lower House elections, then win 2016 Upper house elections with such a majority that LDP itself plus some hawkish parties might have a 2/3 majority. Then step down as LDP president in 2018 to make way for a more dovish LDP leader to lead LDP into 2018 lower house elections.  Such a dovish LDP PM would then have the credibility that Abe as a hawk does not have to convince the opposition, Japanese population, USA, ROK and even to some extent PR that the change in constitution is not a threat and will not lead to militarism in Japan making it possible for it to pass.

[jaichind]

Asahi projections

              FPTP     PR        Total
LDP         229      76         305
KP               9      24           33
DPJ            39      39          78
JIP              4       23          27
FPG             2        0            2
JCP             1       17          18
PLP             2        0            2
SDP            1        1            2
Ind.            8        0            8
---------------------------------------
              295      180       475

This implies a PR vote share of around

LDP            39%
KP              14%
DPJ             20%
JIP              13%
PFG              1%
JCP               9%     
PLP              1%
SDP              2%
Others         1%

[jaichind]

Yomiuri final projection.  Not much details other than LDP to be over 300 seats and LDP/KP to be over 2/3 majority.

[jaichind]

Critical regions in this election that will decide if opposition can make gains this election.  It is clear that DPJ will benefit from a revival and an alliance with JIP.  The question is how much of the JIP vote base is intact to regain its FPTP seats and transfer support to JIP where it is weak anyway and decided to back DPJ.

1) Hokkaido - 12 seats.  Overall this election will represent a positive swing toward LDP/KP from 2012 even as DPJ and JIP cooperates to avoid vote split and end up taking seats from LDP/KP despite the swing.  In Hokkaido it is very likely there will be a swing AWAY from LDP/KP.  So if there is a place DPJ will gain in FPTP it will have to be in Hokkaido.  In others words, if DPJ cannot gain in Hokkaido then it will be a very bad night for DPJ.  The same is true for Okinawa and its 4 seats.  

2) Tokyo - 25 seats.  Tokyo is very elastic ergo there is always a chance of an opposition surge.  Key question here is if JIP can retain enough of the original JRP vote base versus losing them to PFG or LDP.   Part of the JRP base in Tokyo included what is now PFG so how they split up in Tokyo will be key.   Then it is the question of if JIP and DPJ can transfer votes to each other where they form tactical alliances.  Lastly YP is strong here but that same YP vote base seems to have voted DPJ in the past.  The question is if that vote based swing to opposition or not not that YP is gone.

3) Osaka - 19 seats.  The question here is if the JIP retained the vast majority of the JRP vote base.  If it did and manage to get the vote transfer from DPJ supporting JIP in most districts then JIP will have a good night.  

4) Kanagawa - 18 seats.  Here both DPJ and JIP have some strength and LDP is not super strong even as PFG have pockets of strength.  Kanagawa  is very representative of other battleground prefectures  where the LDP has the prospect of being beaten.  Main question is how effective is is DPJ and JIP at transferring votes to each other especially in places where their vote base are of equal strength and what role will FPG plan in terms of taking away LDP votes.

[jaichind]

Early voting seems to be up 10% from 2012 which sends a mixed signal that turnout might actually not fall that much and perhaps increase.  We will see. 

[jaichind]

Nikkei poll.  Abe cabinet approval at 42%.  As for seat projection, it is like all the others.  It projects LDP at above 300 with LDP-KP getting 2/3 majority or above.

[Vega]

Early voting seems to be up 10% from 2012 which sends a mixed signal that turnout might actually not fall that much and perhaps increase.  We will see. 

That's a good sign.

[jaichind]

Early voting seems to be up 10% from 2012 which sends a mixed signal that turnout might actually not fall that much and perhaps increase.  We will see. 

That's a good sign.

Early voting up a lot at battle ground prefectures such as 宮城 (Miyazaki) and 新潟 (Niigata) and could be bad news for LDP there.   On the other hand early voting is down a bit in 大阪 (Osaka) which could be bad news there for JIP as it tries to keep its voting base intact there. 

On the flip side, heavy snow will hit turnout as well.  Of course I think this time around low turnout might start to eat into the LDP base.  All media outfits disagrees with my views so we will see.

[jaichind]

Final prediction which is at all odds with every media poll.   But I will go down with the ship if need to.  Of course very low turnout could help LDP-KP greatly and COULD give them a mega-landslide.  I still reject that narrative as I feel in such a low turnout election LDP voters will not turn out either.

Party     PR vote      FPTP   PR   Total
LDP           31.0%   185   64   249
KP             15.0%      9    27     36
DPJ            24.3%   65     45   110
JIP             12.0%   20     22     42
JCP            10.0%     1     18     19
PFG             3.0%     3       2       5
PLP             2.0%     2       1       3
SDP             2.0%     1      1       2
Ind-LDP                    6                6
Ind-DPJ                     3               3
---------------------------------------------------------
                             295   180  475

This prediction is based on my assumption that

1) Swing against LDP in Hokkaido.  The media polls seems to disagree with this and insist that in Hokkaido LDP-KP will maintain their vote share.  I think not, I think LDP-KP will get a nasty surprise in Hokkaido.
2) Swing against LDP in Okinawa.  The media polls actually seem to agree with this assessment as well as the US base controversy that burn DPJ back in 2009 is now burning LDP.  
3) JIP manage to keep the JRP vote base on Kinki region even as PFG take some of that base outside of Kinki.  The media polls seems to agree with this but insist that in Kinki JIP will lose a good chunk of the original JRP vote base to LDP.
4) Moderate swing in favor of LDP in rest of Japan on the order of 6% in PR and around 3.5% in FPTP.  But at the same time the various opposition parties do manage to transfer their votes to each other where there make tactical agreement and have a low leak rate toe LDP.   Of course both assumptions are really the same thing.  The media polls disagree with both as they feel that the swing toward LDP will be stronger which implies that he intra-opposition vote transfer will leak a lot of votes to LDP.
 

[jaichind]

Polls has opened so voting in progress.  Heavy snow in Northern and Eastern Japan but Tokyo has good weather.

See  http://www3.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/ for results at 8PM Tokyo/6PM EST for results.

[Vega]

Polls has opened so voting in progress.  Heavy snow in Northern and Eastern Japan but Tokyo has good weather.

See  http://www3.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/ for results at 8PM Tokyo/6PM EST for results.

Where do you go for the results on that page? At 8PM will they just come up?

[jaichind]

Polls has opened so voting in progress.  Heavy snow in Northern and Eastern Japan but Tokyo has good weather.

See  http://www3.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/ for results at 8PM Tokyo/6PM EST for results.

Where do you go for the results on that page? At 8PM will they just come up?

Yep, should be.  They should be posting exit polls soon after 8pm/6am as well.

[jaichind]

As of 6pm turnout is about 35% which is down 6.8% from 2012.  If so we are looking at an turnout of around 51%-52% which is a bit lower than 2013 Upper House elections.  We are on record to have the lowest turnout ever.  I had expected something like 55%. I guess the impact of the snow and apathy is even greater than I thought.