The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Christie on fire, now in third place.

Up: Romney, Christie
Down: Perry

GOP nomination

Romney 43.9
Perry 26.5
Christie 12.9
Palin 8.0
Huntsman 4.5
Paul 2.9
Bachmann 1.9
Gingrich 0.9
Giuliani 0.9
J. Bush 0.5
Johnson 0.5
Santorum 0.4
Cain 0.3
Ryan 0.3

Winning Party

GOP 50.1
Dems 48.3

Will the following potential candidates run?

Palin 27.9
Christie 20.0
Giuliani 8.2

Wow, Christie, Palin and Romney really gained at Perry's expense. Pretty crazy that well over 20% are for undeclared candidates (30% for candidates other than Perry and Romney). Huntsman seems way overvalued as well. Someone should write a book called the rise and fall of Bachmann. Christie's implied probability of getting the nomination if he runs is a crazy high 64.5%.

[Averroës Nix]

Christie's ascent reminds me a lot of Paul Ryan's brief spike a few weeks ago. He was trading at as high as six percent before prices crashed when he put a stop to the speculation.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie eases off his recent gains, and Romney's lead builds further.  Incidentally, I think Romney's 44.8 is higher than anyone ever got in the 2008 GOP nomination market during the latter half of 2007.

Romney 44.8
Perry 25.5
Christie 8.8
Palin 7.0
Huntsman 4.5
Paul 3.0
Bachmann 2.0
Gingrich 0.9
Giuliani 0.9
Santorum 0.6
Cain 0.5
Johnson 0.5

EDIT: Oh wait, it isn't quite as high as Giuliani briefly got in November-ish of 2007:

[Mr. Morden]

And now, Cain (barely) passes Bachmann, while Romney hits the 45 mark:

Up: Cain
Down: Perry

Romney 45.0
Perry 23.2
Christie 8.6
Palin 7.6
Huntsman 4.0
Paul 2.9
Cain 2.0
Bachmann 1.9
Giuliani 1.0
Gingrich 0.9
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.5

[tmthforu94]

Good lord, this is incredible. Even though I support Romney, I'd still almost want to buy Perry stocks, as he's very low for someone leading nationwide and in Iowa/South Carolina/Florida.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I would've bought Perry 2 weeks ago, but the media is beginning to write him off and my grandfather, loyal conservative and tea partier, told me after Thursday's debate that Romney is now his man because Perry looks clueless.

If he changed his mind, I expect many, many others have as well.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

While Democrats were favored before, Republicans now lead Democrats 50-48 for winning the Presidential election.

[Mr. Morden]

If Romney is elected president, I'm going to email Dave and ask him to make Winfield mod of US General Discussion.

[Bull Moose Base]

If Romney is elected president, I'm going to email Dave and ask him to make Winfield mod of US General Discussion.

And I'm going to email Dave Winfield and tell him about this board.  (How hard can it be to get Dave Winfield's email if one really wanted it?)

[Mr. Morden]

If Romney is elected president, I'm going to email Dave and ask him to make Winfield mod of US General Discussion.

And I'm going to email Dave Winfield and tell him about this board.  (How hard can it be to get Dave Winfield's email if one really wanted it?)

Sounds like a plan.  The other advantage of Romney being elected is that it would cut down on Bachmann's confusion:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLBtlMI2yg4

[Middle-aged Europe]

If Romney is elected president, I'm going to email Dave and ask him to make Winfield mod of US General Discussion.

And I'm going to email Dave Winfield and tell him about this board.  (How hard can it be to get Dave Winfield's email if one really wanted it?)

Sounds like a plan.  The other advantage of Romney being elected is that it would cut down on Bachmann's confusion:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLBtlMI2yg4

Or maybe she was confusing Romney with Obama?

After all, they're both non-Christian, pro-choice, pro-death panels, pro-Darwin candidates.

[The Mikado]

You know, just a week ago I was saying Perry was overpriced.  Now he's underpriced.  Damn.  As much as I hate to say it, buy Perry.

Romney is the candidate with the best chance of winning, but his chance is considerably less than 45% IMO.

Also, Jon Huntsman is overpriced at any price above .5%.  4% is just outrageous.

[tmthforu94]

I would've bought Perry 2 weeks ago, but the media is beginning to write him off and my grandfather, loyal conservative and tea partier, told me after Thursday's debate that Romney is now his man because Perry looks clueless.

If he changed his mind, I expect many, many others have as well.

I was talking to a parent of one of my friends the other night. She's extremely conservative, a big Tea Partier. She said that she's never been a big fan of Romney because of his healthcare plan in Massachusetts, but after hearing his argument that it was a state issue, she's starting to like him. I think we're seeing this across America - the more people hear Perry, the more they dislike him. The more people here Romney at these debates, the more they like him.

Heck, my parents, people who actually know Perry, are back to supporting Romney, because the understand that the most important thing is Obama being a one term President, and Romney is easily our best shot at taking him down.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney now up to 47.  Intraders give Hillary Clinton about a 1 in 7.5 chance of being on the Democratic ticket, either as the presidential or vice presidential candidate.

GOP nominee

Romney 47.0
Perry 24.0
Christie 8.7
Palin 7.6
Huntsman 3.5
Paul 2.6
Cain 2.2
Bachmann 1.9
Gingrich 1.0
Giuliani 0.9
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.5

Dem. nominee

Obama 94.7
Clinton 6.3
Biden 0.5

Dem. VP nominee

Biden 90.0
Clinton 7.0

[Bull Moose Base]

Overreaction. We're yet to see polling that shows Perry falling or evidence whether he can or can't improve his presentation.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie crashes, and Perry rebounds.

Up: Perry
Down: Romney, Christie

GOP nominee

Romney 45.0
Perry 30.0
Palin 8.0
Christie 4.0
Huntsman 3.9
Cain 2.4
Paul 2.4
Bachmann 2.0
Gingrich 1.2
Giuliani 1.0
Johnson 0.5
Santorum 0.5

Winning Individual

Obama 47.5
Romney 22.9
Perry 12.2
Palin 4.0
Paul 3.0
Christie 2.4
Huntsman 2.0
Clinton 1.7
Cain 1.5
Gingrich 1.0
Bachmann 0.8
Biden 0.4

Will the following potential candidates run?

Palin 21.0
Christie 16.5
Giuliani 7.0

[Wonkish1]

As said before buy Cain. And you would have made 5 times your money. He is still cheap, but not as cheap. Sell him if he gets over 6 unless he starts showing real operational strength in Iowa.

Now buy Newt, too. He's going to break next.

Huntsman still dog$hit, but I guess some liberals would rather hold out hope for him than actually bet with half a brain. Otherwise there isn't really anybody else that is that badly priced.

[Tender Branson]

As said before buy Cain. And you would have made 5 times your money. He is still cheap, but not as cheap. Sell him if he gets over 6 unless he starts showing real operational strength in Iowa.

Well, not really but ...

[Mr. Morden]

Cain's price more than doubles in just a few hours.  He's now up to fourth place.

Up: Romney, Christie, Cain
Down: Perry, Palin

Romney 47.7
Perry 26.0
Christie 7.0
Cain 5.9
Palin 4.5
Huntsman 4.0
Paul 2.4
Bachmann 2.0
Gingrich 2.0
Giuliani 1.0
Santorum 0.8
J. Bush 0.5
Daniels 0.5
Johnson 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Will the following potential candidates run?

Christie 28.5
Palin 20.5
Giuliani 15.0

Intrade now has Christie as more likely to run than Palin for the first time ever.

[Mr. Morden]

Perry drops below 20, and Huckabee reemerges.

Up: Christie, Huckabee
Down: Romney, Perry

Romney 46.5
Perry 19.7
Christie 8.9
Cain 5.4
Palin 4.4
Huntsman 3.9
Paul 2.7
Bachmann 2.4
Huckabee 1.8
Gingrich 1.2
Giuliani 1.2
Johnson 0.6

Four years ago today:

Democrats
Clinton 66.2
Obama 16.4
Gore 9.5
Edwards 6.6
Richardson 0.6
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 36.8
Thompson 24.6
Romney 23.2
Paul 7.0
McCain 4.6
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 1.1
Gingrich 0.1

So yes, Huckabee was doing just slightly better four years ago, when he was actually running.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie now in double digits.

Up: Perry, Christie
Down: Huckabee

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 46.4
Perry 23.9
Christie 10.4
Cain 5.0
Palin 4.0
Huntsman 3.8
Paul 2.2
Bachmann 2.0
Gingrich 1.6
Giuliani 1.1
Huckabee 0.8
Santorum 0.7
Johnson 0.6

GOP VP nominee

Rubio 32.5
Christie 7.0
Huntsman 6.0
Portman 5.5
McDonnell 5.0
Cain 3.1
Martinez 3.0
Perry 3.0
Romney 3.0
Thune 3.0
Ryan 2.6
Daniels 2.5

[Peeperkorn]

Romney 46.4
Perry 23.9
Christie 10.4
Cain 5.0
Palin 4.0
Huntsman 3.8
Paul 2.2
Bachmann 2.0
Gingrich 1.6
Giuliani 1.1
Huckabee 0.8
Santorum 0.7
Johnson 0.6

Wat?

[Bull Moose Base]

Romney 46.4
Perry 23.9
Christie 10.4
Cain 5.0
Palin 4.0
Huntsman 3.8
Paul 2.2
Bachmann 2.0
Gingrich 1.6
Giuliani 1.1
Huckabee 0.8
Santorum 0.7
Johnson 0.6

Wat?

You think it's too high?  It's been forever in coming down to that.  Huntsman's intrade fade has been glacial.  #3 and #5 are not currently running for president.  Iowa's in 3 months.

GOP VP nominee

Rubio 32.5
Christie 7.0
Huntsman 6.0
Portman 5.5
McDonnell 5.0
Cain 3.1
Martinez 3.0
Perry 3.0
Romney 3.0
Thune 3.0
Ryan 2.6
Daniels 2.5

Too much.  Rubio is more than 4X as likely as the next most probably VP nominee?  Come on.  Short her up.

[Peeperkorn]

Too much.  Rubio is more than 4X as likely as the next most probably VP nominee?  Come on.  Short her up.

It would be the obvious choice. Republican nuts but he can speak fluent Spanish.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98kmsa8RbA4