New Tradesports rankings

[Verily]

Romney is still absurdly undervalued in the market for the Florida primary.  He's at 26.5 to win the nomination, but only at 6.0 to win Florida.  What sense does that make?  He's actually doing a bit better in the Florida polls than in the national polls.  If he gets a big national boost from winning IA and NH, why wouldn't he get a corresponding boost in Florida?

I'm sure a good part of it is a low-volume market.

[Verily]

Obama reaches an all-time high in the Iowa caucus market, now tied with Clinton:

Clinton 47.0
Obama 47.0
Edwards 11.0
Gore 2.0 (I guess they still won't give up)
Richardson 0.4

If Obama's that high for Iowa, he should certainly be higher for the nomination. More free money on selling Obama to win Iowa while buying Obama to win the nomination. (The two do not have a perfect correlation, of course, but Obama should be at least 30 to win the nomination if he's 47 to win Iowa.)

[Verily]

Obama has soared into the lead in the Iowa market, reaching 50.0 to win Iowa.

Obama 50.0
Clinton 37.0
Edwards 10.5

He's also reached 50.0 in South Carolina, but Clinton is at 50.0 in SC as well. Clinton leads 64.9-35.0 in the NH market.

Also, there's free money on Clinton to win the Michigan primary, or on laying Obama to win it. (He's at 15.0 but not on the ballot IIRC.)

[Verily]

Other free money: laying Thompson to win South Carolina (where he leads on Intrade!?).

It's probably a good idea to buy Huckabee to win New Hampshire, too; he won't win, but his price will go up when he wins Iowa and thus could be sold for profit. (You could hedge this by laying Huckabee to win Iowa if you really wanted; he's already at 75.0 there, so hedging might be a viable strategy, but honestly you shouldn't need to.)

[Verily]

Other free money: laying Thompson to win South Carolina (where he leads on Intrade!?).

He doesn't lead.  It's just that Huckabee isn't listed under a separate contract for SC.  He's included under "Field".  So for SC, it's:

field 50.0
Thompson 20.0
Giuliani 18.5
Romney 15.2
McCain 3.0

Presumably, the vast majority of people betting on "field" think Huckabee's going to win.

Ah, that makes a lot more sense.

Also worth noting, Clinton is now at 59.0, the first time she's been below 60 since mid-August.

[Verily]

Mc-mentum:

Giuliani 35.7
Romney 24.9
Huckabee 16.2
McCain 10.0

I think that might be McCain's highest point since June.  Also, notice how the Giuliani-Romney gap has narrowed considerably in recent days.

Interesting that the DMR endorsement seems to have helped McCain but not Clinton in the markets (though the Lieberman and Boston Globe endorsements might have as much to do with it). Paul is also near his record high, at 8.5, presumably due to the massive sucking sound in his supporters' wallets his fundraising run.

[Verily]

Some other interesting stuff...

Democratic VP
Bayh 16.9
Obama 15.7
Clark 15.0
Gore 14.8
Richardson 14.6
Edwards 5.7
Webb 5.6
Strickland 5.0
Vilsack 4.0
Biden 2.7
Dodd 1.3
Clinton 1.2
Warner 1.2
Kerrey 0.1
Daschle 0.1
[Field 13.4]


Some of those are pretty far off. Warner will obviously not be VP because he's running for Senate. After all of her attacking Obama, Clinton really couldn't choose him as VP, and no one in their right mind would pick Clark for VP. Clinton obviously wouldn't go for VP, and nor would Gore, who is ridiculously overvalued here.

Republican VP
Huckabee 28.9
Pawlenty 10.1
Romney 8.6
Thompson (F) 7.6
Gingrich 6.5
Bush (J) 5.8
Rice 5.7
Steele 4.5
Giuliani 3.8
Graham 3.4
McCain 2.0
Hunter 1.2
Hutchison 1.0
Paul 0.1
[Field 25.2]

All I have to say is that "Field" is WAY undervalued.

[Verily]

What's wrong with Clark for VP?

He's even worse than Biden and Richardson combined for putting his foot in his mouth.

[Verily]

Romney and McCain SURGE, all at Giuliani's expense:

Giuliani 27.3
Romney 26.9
Huckabee 17.0
McCain: 15.0
Paul 8.0
Thompson 4.8

Giuliani hadn't been below 30 since July.

[Verily]

Wow, McCain surges past Huckabee into 3rd place:

Giuliani 28.1
Romney 24.6
McCain 18.3
Huckabee 14.6

A fool and his money are soon parted...

[Verily]

Huckabee vs. McCain seems very similar to Bush vs. McCain.

Except McCain would be the establishment candidate.

Not really. I don't think either would be the establishment candidate. Among those with a serious chance, Romney is the establishment candidate; if he implodes, there will be no establishment candidate on the Republican side.

[Verily]

The New Hampshire numbers should be pretty much identical to the Democratic nomination numbers. My advice: buy Obama to win the nomination and hedge it by shorting him to win New Hampshire for guaranteed profit.

[Verily]

A fool and his money are soon parted when betting on the Michigan primary. Obama is up to 30.0 even though he's not on the ballot.

[Verily]

The could write him in, could they do that?

Nope, Michigan doesn't accept write-ins unless a candidate petitions for them, and Obama has not done so (and the deadline has passed). There is simply no way whatsoever that Obama can win Michigan, yet some poor fool just bought him for 30.0 on Intrade.

[Verily]

It's the Rasmussen poll showing Obama ten points up over Clinton in NH.

[Verily]

And now Edwards has edged Bayh as top dog in the Dem VP market;

Edwards 16.0
Bayh 15.3

Stupid. Who's going to choose Edwards? Obama? No, he needs experience, a "statesman". Clinton? No, she's already struck up with Bayh.

[Verily]

Romney is not going to win Florida, so what is plan B?

Too many losses for a Plan B now.

Not strictly true. If he wins by a relatively large margin tomorrow (>4 points), he could conceivably regain ground in South Carolina with the new media push, win there and in Nevada, and go into Florida, Hawaii and Maine quite strong. It's not likely, but it's very possible.

[Verily]

So honestly, other than non-candidates and dropouts like Gingrich and Brownback dropping down to nothing and adding a few points to the top 3, nothing much has changed in the last 13 months. 

Of course

I guess now I can brag about predicting back in December 2006 that nothing could possibly stop McCain from winning the Republican nomination

[Verily]

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

New product, effectively. Once tested, the numbers will soar or plummet.

Yep.  Hard to tell right now, but I suspect if Giuliani loses FL (which is in no way a certainty) it will effectively become two-person. 

Huck is done, quite frankly - scaling down operations in Florida shows real weakness to me. He'll probably continue, however, and keep trying to garner delegates in the hope of a brokered convention, which will only possibly happen if Giuliani wins FL.

I'm not so sure that's the case; if Romney wins Florida, it might throw off enough of McCain's momentum for Giuliani to regain his footing in NY and NJ, at least.

[Verily]

Why is Giuliani higher than Huckabee?  Neither of their chances are great, but I honestly Giuliani is completely done while Huckabee has a very, very slight chance.

New product, effectively. Once tested, the numbers will soar or plummet.

Yep.  Hard to tell right now, but I suspect if Giuliani loses FL (which is in no way a certainty) it will effectively become two-person. 

Huck is done, quite frankly - scaling down operations in Florida shows real weakness to me. He'll probably continue, however, and keep trying to garner delegates in the hope of a brokered convention, which will only possibly happen if Giuliani wins FL.

I'm not so sure that's the case; if Romney wins Florida, it might throw off enough of McCain's momentum for Giuliani to regain his footing in NY and NJ, at least.

I doubt if Romney wins FL, Giuliani will be able to regain his footing anywhere.

Possibly not, and he might not bother. But I think it's at least possible, if not likely.

[Verily]

Long term, buy Clinton and McCain.

After tonight may be a good time to buy Clinton again, actually.

That's what I'm suggesting.

Probably not; prices have hardly shifted at all on Intrade.

[Verily]

Long term, buy Clinton and McCain.

After tonight may be a good time to buy Clinton again, actually.

That's what I'm suggesting.

How high will McCain's stock go if he wins in FL? If it's still below 65, I'd make a heavy bet in his favor.

If McCain is below 90 after winning Florida, bet on him.

[Verily]

I must disagree. Buy McCain at any price below 90. He's a lock now.

[Verily]

McCain will be up for the next two days and possibly drop. 

Begin to think about McCain in the general.

Betting on McCain in the general would be wise once you've soaked up all of the value in McCain for the nomination.

[Verily]

Time to buy him to win the election. He should really be at least 40 on that market.