New Tradesports rankings

[Verily]

Obama has soared into the lead in the Iowa market, reaching 50.0 to win Iowa.

Obama 50.0
Clinton 37.0
Edwards 10.5

He's also reached 50.0 in South Carolina, but Clinton is at 50.0 in SC as well. Clinton leads 64.9-35.0 in the NH market.

Also, there's free money on Clinton to win the Michigan primary, or on laying Obama to win it. (He's at 15.0 but not on the ballot IIRC.)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think Huckabee's media honeymoon is coming to an end, as more damaging stories about his past words and actions have been coming out recently

"damaging stories"?  I highly doubt that. 

The Parole case is balanced with his record on capital punishment and most voters are adult enough to understand paroles are risky but neccessary in most cases.

On the AIDS issues, his comments were typical of many during the late 80's and early 90's, and, in retrospect, isolation in the early 80's would have helped contain the spread of the virus in the U.S.

He is also not afraid to identfy sin as the cause of most of our social problems, problems that government can't solve.

I expect him to continue to rise in the polls.  The media is basically serving up red meat to the social conseratives.

This is the reason some of us have been terrified of him for months.

[Verily]

Other free money: laying Thompson to win South Carolina (where he leads on Intrade!?).

It's probably a good idea to buy Huckabee to win New Hampshire, too; he won't win, but his price will go up when he wins Iowa and thus could be sold for profit. (You could hedge this by laying Huckabee to win Iowa if you really wanted; he's already at 75.0 there, so hedging might be a viable strategy, but honestly you shouldn't need to.)

[Mr. Morden]

Other free money: laying Thompson to win South Carolina (where he leads on Intrade!?).

He doesn't lead.  It's just that Huckabee isn't listed under a separate contract for SC.  He's included under "Field".  So for SC, it's:

field 50.0
Thompson 20.0
Giuliani 18.5
Romney 15.2
McCain 3.0

Presumably, the vast majority of people betting on "field" think Huckabee's going to win.

[Verily]

Other free money: laying Thompson to win South Carolina (where he leads on Intrade!?).

He doesn't lead.  It's just that Huckabee isn't listed under a separate contract for SC.  He's included under "Field".  So for SC, it's:

field 50.0
Thompson 20.0
Giuliani 18.5
Romney 15.2
McCain 3.0

Presumably, the vast majority of people betting on "field" think Huckabee's going to win.

Ah, that makes a lot more sense.

Also worth noting, Clinton is now at 59.0, the first time she's been below 60 since mid-August.

[Mr. Morden]

More evidence that many of the people betting on Intrade have no understanding of how primaries work:

I've repeatedly pointed out how silly it is that Giuliani is at about 70 to win the Florida primary while only at about 40 to win the nomination.  I just don't think the chances are that great that Giuliani will win Florida and then go on to lose the nomination.  But I just realized that there's an even crazier number in the markets on the individual primaries.  Giuliani is at a whopping 72.5 to win the PA primary.

PA's primary is in April.  There's probably something like a 99% chance that one of the candidates will clinch the nomination in February or March, and then all the other candidates will drop out.  (This'll probably happen on Feb. 5th, but let's even grant that it could happen as late as March.)  Once that happens, the presumptive nominee is going to win every single remaining primary.  That means that the numbers for the nomination should be nearly identical to the numbers for the PA primary.  But they're not.  Giuliani is at 72.5 to win PA, but only 41.0 to win the nomination.  It doesn't make any sense.  (There's a similar discrepancy on the Dem. market in PA by the way.)

[Mr. Morden]

Obama surge continues:

Clinton 61.7
Obama 33.9
Edwards 4.7

And Obama passes Giuliani on winning individual:

Clinton 40.1
Obama 18.1
Giuliani 18.0
Huckabee 7.0
Romney 5.5

[Eraserhead]

Nice

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama has a substantial gain at Clinton's expense. He is over 30 and she under 60 for the first time in a few months. Gore also gains a bit.

Huckabee falls, McCain and Paul gain. Rice finally falls to more reasonable levels.

Democrats
Clinton 59.2
Obama 32.8
Edwards 5.0
Gore 3.0
Richardson 0.3
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.1
Romney 18.5
Huckabee 18.4
McCain 9.0
Paul 6.0
Thomspon 5.0
Rice 0.4
Gingrich 0.4

[Mr. Morden]

In the markets for individual primaries, Obama is now ahead of Clinton in both IA and SC, and remarkably, they're now dead even to win NH.  Given that, you'd think that Obama would be higher than 34.0 to win the nomination.  But as I said several posts ago, many of the people betting on Intrade don't seem to understand how momentum works in primaries.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not necessarily. It's just different people betting. No doubt the individual states is far lower volume, so lots of people are betting on who to win the nomination but not the individual primaries.

LOL@Paul gaining again.

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, but when there's a discrepancy like that, anyone who understands how these things work could step in to make $ off those who don't.  For example, if I'm convinced that the winner of IA/NH/SC will win the nomination, then (at current prices) I should bet on Obama to win the nomination, but *against* Obama to win those three states.  Either way, I make $, because of the price discrepancy.  If there were enough people on Intrade who understood these things, then price discrepancies like that would vanish.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama has a decent gain, but Clinton also goes up. The lower candidates tend to go down, including Dodd, who drops off.

Giuliani and Romney gain. Huckabee slides a bit.

Democrats
Clinton 60.1
Obama 34.0
Edwards 4.5
Gore 2.8
Biden 0.3
Richardson 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 41.1
Romney 19.5
Huckabee 17.8
McCain 9.2
Paul 6.0
Thomspon 5.0
Rice 0.5
Gingrich 0.4

[Erc]

I was strongly considering buying some McCain when he was at around 4.5 a few months back...shame I didn't.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney's rebounded a bit and Giuliani may finally be losing steam (though he's still overvalued IMHO).  Paul has had a massive rally in recent days:

Giuliani 37.9
Romney 23.7
Huckabee 18.4
McCain 8.9
Paul 8.1
Thompson 5.6

Obama's now at least slightly ahead in the markets for IA, NH, *and* SC.

Remember when I said that Romney was undervalued in the market to win Florida?  Well (presumably because of the recent polling there), his value in the Florida market has tripled overnight, from less than 5 to 15.0.

Giuliani is still insanely overvalued to win Pennsylvania.  Again, their primary is in April.  The nominee will already have been decided by then, and PA will vote for whoever the presumptive nominee is.  Yet he's at 72.5 to win PA.  That's *way* *way* higher than his chances of winning the nomination.  Betting on Giuliani to lose PA is one of the smartest bets on Intrade right now.

Oh, and this is a fun statistic....the most heavily traded people in the Dem. VP nominee market are Gore, Obama, and Richardson.  This is the number of shares that have been traded for each of them:

Gore 58,032
Obama 4944
Richardson 931

That's an awfully big gap betwen Gore and Obama and between Obama and Richardson.  I guess people have really strong opinions about whether Gore will be VP again.

[© tweed]

eyes toward the NH Republican market

Romney 55.8
Field 28.9
McCain, Huckabee, Giuliani 7.0
Thompson, Hagel, Gingrich no-bid

wtf?  who are the field people betting on?  Ron Paul?

[Mr. Morden]

wtf?  who are the field people betting on?  Ron Paul?

Presumably Alan Keyes.  No, seriously, I'm assuming they're betting on Paul.  Maybe the Paul fanboys are frustrated that they can't drive up Paul's price on the nomination market any higher, so they're concentrating on NH.  I don't know.  Anyway, easy $ right there.  Just bet against "field", and it's free $, as there's roughly zero chance that someone other than Romney, Giuliani, McCain, or Huckabee will win the state.

[Eraserhead]

I'm amazed how high Giuliani still is. He is trailing in Florida now.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Too many people won't check out the polls and just keep buying what the media says, that Giuliani is the frontrunner.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For some sure money on InTrade, bet on Hillary to win Michigan and Florida. She's still trading in the 80s when her chances are basically 100%. For some reason there's still people trading Obama in both states, especially Florida (no crazier than trading Gore to win the nomination I suppose). Maybe people on bidding on Obama's current momentum and don't know he won't be on the ballot in either.

[Mr. Morden]

AFAIK, Obama's still on the ballot in Florida.  It's only Michigan where he's not on the ballot.  Apparently, it's harder to pull your name from the ballot in Florida than it is in Michigan.

[Mr. Morden]

Mc-mentum:

Giuliani 35.7
Romney 24.9
Huckabee 16.2
McCain 10.0

I think that might be McCain's highest point since June.  Also, notice how the Giuliani-Romney gap has narrowed considerably in recent days.

[Verily]

Mc-mentum:

Giuliani 35.7
Romney 24.9
Huckabee 16.2
McCain 10.0

I think that might be McCain's highest point since June.  Also, notice how the Giuliani-Romney gap has narrowed considerably in recent days.

Interesting that the DMR endorsement seems to have helped McCain but not Clinton in the markets (though the Lieberman and Boston Globe endorsements might have as much to do with it). Paul is also near his record high, at 8.5, presumably due to the massive sucking sound in his supporters' wallets his fundraising run.

[Aizen]

10 is too high for McCain. He's still in very poor shape.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The Boston Globe also endorsed McCain today.  I have no idea what it's readership is in New Hampshire is, though.  (Probably not especially high.)