New Tradesports rankings

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

And for Clinton to lose her lead, she's pretty much got to come in third in Iowa, and outside the margin of error at that.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't see why Romney would need to beat Huckabee by as much as 15 points just to take the lead in the GOP nomination market.  He's barely trailing Giuliani and McCain in the nomination market as it is, and Intrade currently has him as the underdog in Iowa.  If he simply wins Iowa outright, that could well put him in the lead for the nomination.  (Granted, that could be complicated somewhat if McCain finishes a surprisingly strong 3rd.)

In any event, it should be fun to watch the markets go crazy the second the Iowa entrance poll is released.

[Likely Voter]

If the GOP market goes crazy then it will show that this isn't a very rational market. The real stock market 'prices in' foreseeable market events like low/high quarterly results, product launches, etc.
McCain and Guilliani are going to lose in IA. That should be priced in now. If not then the buyers of those stocks are just morons.

[Mr. Morden]

If the GOP market goes crazy then it will show that this isn't a very rational market. The real stock market 'prices in' foreseeable market events like low/high quarterly results, product launches, etc.
McCain and Guilliani are going to lose in IA. That should be priced in now. If not then the buyers of those stocks are just morons.

Well yes, the fact that only Huckabee and Romney have a realistic chance of winning Iowa is presumably already priced into the market.  But right now, we're kind of operating in a vacuum of information as to who is the favorite between them (because the polls show that they're just about dead even, and polling a caucus is extremely difficult anyway), and the difference between a narrow Huckabee victory and a narrow Romney victory is potentially enormous in terms of determining the eventual nominee.  (As is, to a somewhat lesser extent, the question of who comes in 3rd.)

So it's a bit like the share price on a company that has an earnings report coming out, which could go in one of two directions: 1) the company could either see enormous growth and potentially double in size, or 2) the company could end up doing so dismally that it risks going out of business.  If the details of that report were to leak out, and it showed #2 (things were so bad that the company might go out of business) then the share price would crash immediately, even if the possibility that that *might* happen was already priced into the market.

[Likely Voter]

If the GOP market goes crazy then it will show that this isn't a very rational market. The real stock market 'prices in' foreseeable market events like low/high quarterly results, product launches, etc.
McCain and Guilliani are going to lose in IA. That should be priced in now. If not then the buyers of those stocks are just morons.

Well yes, the fact that only Huckabee and Romney have a realistic chance of winning Iowa is presumably already priced into the market.  But right now, we're kind of operating in a vacuum of information as to who is the favorite between them (because the polls show that they're just about dead even, and polling a caucus is extremely difficult anyway), and the difference between a narrow Huckabee victory and a narrow Romney victory is potentially enormous in terms of determining the eventual nominee.  (As is, to a somewhat lesser extent, the question of who comes in 3rd.)

So it's a bit like the share price on a company that has an earnings report coming out, which could go in one of two directions: 1) the company could either see enormous growth and potentially double in size, or 2) the company could end up doing so dismally that it risks going out of business.  If the details of that report were to leak out, and it showed #2 (things were so bad that the company might go out of business) then the share price would crash immediately, even if the possibility that that *might* happen was already priced into the market.

I a gree...which is why I didnt mention Huckabee or Romney. I would expect a lot of movement on them. But that would not explain crashes in Rudy or McCain shares when the market knows right now both will not win. That being said I expect Guilliani to fall, but I would then ask the people selling Rudy...what did you think would happen?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama is the favorite Democrat in IA.
Field (Ron Paul) is notably high on the Republican side there.


DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 64.5
Obama 26.5
Edwards 7.0
Gore 1.8
Richardson 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Biden 0.1

Iowa
Obama 54.7
Clinton 28.0
Edwards 18.0
Richardson 0.1
Field 0.1

REPUBLICANS

Nomination
Giuliani 27.1
McCain 24.0
Romney 23.8
Huckabee 11.5
Paul 7.5
Thompson 2.9
Rice 0.6
Gingrich 0.4
Bloomberg 0.1
Hunter 0.1

Iowa
Huckabee 58.1
Romney 40.0
McCain 0.3
Thompson 0.2
Field 4.0

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Got to love those Paul supporters.

Huckabee is way overvalued too.

[Reignman]

Paul's definitely too high. Edwards should be at least 20 in Iowa.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There is a distinct order to the top 3 Democrats, while the Republican side is basically even between the top 2.

IOWA

Democrats

Obama 54.8
Clinton 34.2
Edwards 16.3
Richardson 0.1
Biden 0.1 (Field)

Republians

Huckabee 52.1
Romney 49.0
Paul 4.0 (Field)
McCain 0.3
Thompson 0.2

[CultureKing]

There is a distinct order to the top 3 Democrats, while the Republican side is basically even between the top 2.

IOWA

Democrats

Obama 54.8
Clinton 34.2
Edwards 16.3
Richardson 0.1
Biden 0.1 (Field)

Republians

Huckabee 52.1
Romney 49.0
Paul 4.0 (Field)
McCain 0.3
Thompson 0.2

Not sure if it is just me but Obama looks to be very over-valued in Iowa and Edwards very under-valued. There is some good money to be made here...

[Mr. Morden]

I a gree...which is why I didnt mention Huckabee or Romney. I would expect a lot of movement on them. But that would not explain crashes in Rudy or McCain shares when the market knows right now both will not win. That being said I expect Guilliani to fall, but I would then ask the people selling Rudy...what did you think would happen?

Well, one could argue that Giuliani's and McCain's are also tied to whether Huckabee or Romney wins IA, in that they're probably both helped by Huckabee beating Romney, which weakens Romney, who'd be a bigger threat to them down the road.  Thus, it's reasonable to expect some movement for both Giuliani and McCain tomorrow night, just based on whether Huckabee and Romney wins.

But I get your point.  However, human nature being what it is, my guess is that when the people betting on Intrade are actually confronted with real life election results for the first time in the campaign (as opposed to just polls), they'll wildly overreact and the markets will go haywire.  Of course, it makes no difference to Giuliani's chances whether he gets 5th or 6th place in Iowa.  But that's the sort of thing that people might overreact to when they see the numbers tomorrow night.

[Mr. Morden]

Giuliani has lost his lead in the GOP nomination market.  Now it's McCain who's leading the GOP nom. market (for I think the first time since Feb. 2007):

McCain 27.0
Giuliani 25.0
Romney 23.1
Huckabee 12.9
Paul 7.1
Thompson 2.7 (ouch)

McCain also surpasses Giuliani in winning individual:

Clinton 40.1
Obama 16.2
McCain 10.0
Giuliani 9.6
Romney 7.4
Huckabee 5.0
Edwards 3.9

[© tweed]

crazy fluidity on the GOP side.  if Romney wins the caucuses we'll probably have our third different favorite in 24 hours...

currently

Giuliani 27.8
McCain 27.5
Romney 21.0
Huckabee 11.1
Paul 7.0
Thompson 3.0

Clinton 63.0
Obama 29.0
Edwards 6.8
Gore 1.8

---------------------------------
IEM closing prices last night....

Romney 28.1
McCain 28.0
Giuliani 21.1
Huckabee 12.6
Rest of Field 6.0
Thompson 3.0

Clinton 59.0
Obama 28.4
Edwards 11.3
Rest of Field 1.8

[Mr. Morden]

Giuliani crash:

McCain 26.5
Romney 21.0
Giuliani 20.0
Huckabee 11.9

Is this the first time Giuliani's been in 3rd place?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama has a decent gain at Clinton and also Edwards' expenses for the nomination. The odds are on him to win IA.

McCain has a massive surge at Giuliani and to a less extent Romney's expenses for the nomination, McCain is back in first place. Huckabee also gains. Odds are on Huckabee to win IA.


DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 61.1
Obama 32.1
Edwards 6.0
Gore 1.8
Richardson 0.2
Biden 0.2
Dodd 0.1

Iowa
Obama 65.0
Clinton 25.0
Edwards 13.6
Richardson 0.1
Biden 0.1 (Field)


REPUBLICANS

Nomination
McCain 27.7
Giuliani 22.5
Romney 21.0
Huckabee 12.0
Paul 7.5
Thompson 3.3
Rice 0.6
Gingrich 0.4
Bloomberg 0.1
Hunter 0.1

Iowa
Huckabee 69.0
Romney 29.7
Paul 2.4 (Field)
McCain 0.9
Thompson 0.3

[© tweed]

an insane swing today.  Clinton down 8.7 and Obama up 8.0.  currently

Clinton 56.2
Obama 34.0
Edwards 6.4
Gore 1.4

Obama is also at 78.9 to win Iowa, for whatever reason.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama continues to gain at Clinton's expense for the nomination. He is now getting close to his record high. He is the overwhelming favorite in IA.

The Republican nomination odds seem to be split fairly evenly 4-ways. Huckabee is the overwhelming favorite in IA.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 56.0
Obama 34.0
Edwards 6.1
Gore 1.4
Richardson 0.2
Biden 0.2
Dodd 0.1

Iowa
Obama 77.0
Clinton 17.0
Edwards 12.5
Richardson 0.1
Biden 0.1 (Field)


REPUBLICANS

Nomination
McCain 28.0
Giuliani 24.0
Romney 22.3
Huckabee 14.0
Paul 7.1
Thompson 2.7
Rice 0.6
Gingrich 0.4
Bloomberg 0.1
Hunter 0.1

Iowa
Huckabee 73.9
Romney 29.0
Paul 2.5 (Field)
McCain 1.4
Thompson 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Latest nomination market numbers:

Clinton 55.3
Obama 37.0
Edwards 4.4

McCain surge and Romney collapse:

McCain 34.0
Giuliani 23.2
Huckabee 17.8
Romney 15.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama continues to gain at Clinton and Edwards' expenses.

McCain is the front-funner. Romney and Paul are in free-fall.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 55.3
Obama 36.0
Edwards 3.0
Gore 1.5
Richardson 0.2
Biden 0.2
Dodd 0.1

Iowa
Obama 98.0
Edwards 3.2
Clinton 0.1

New Hampshire
Obama 60.0
Clinton 36.0
Edwards 3.1
Richardson 0.1
Dodd 0.1
Field 0.1



REPUBLICANS

Nomination
McCain 34.0
Giuliani 23.2
Huckabee 17.8
Romney 13.0
Paul 4.6
Thompson 4.0
Rice 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Gingrich 0.4
Hunter 0.1

Iowa
Huckabee 99.0
Romney 1.1
McCain 0.2
Thompson 0.1
Field 0.3

New Hampshire
McCain 65.0
Romney 25.0
Thompson 3.0
Huckabee 2.8
Giuliani 0.6
Field 11.0

[Speed of Sound]

Buy Obama. Lots and lots of Obama.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama is at an all time high, and is no longer that far behind Clinton. Some bozos still have buys for Biden.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 53.0
Obama 43.9
Edwards 2.9
Gore 1.9
Richardson 0.2
Biden 0.1

New Hampshire
Obama 60.0
Clinton 30.0
Edwards 1.0
Richardson 0.1


REPUBLICANS

Nomination
McCain 33.3
Giuliani 26.8
Huckabee 17.5
Romney 14.5
Paul 4.4
Thompson 2.8
Rice 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Gingrich 0.4
Hunter 0.1


New Hampshire
McCain 66.0
Romney 20.0
Paul 5.0 (Field)
Thompson 3.0
Huckabee 3.0

[True Democrat]

What's with Bloomberg?

[Reignman]

McCain's in first. I can't believe it.

[Verily]

The New Hampshire numbers should be pretty much identical to the Democratic nomination numbers. My advice: buy Obama to win the nomination and hedge it by shorting him to win New Hampshire for guaranteed profit.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton hits 50% on the Dem. nomination:

Clinton 50.0
Obama 47.0
Edwards 2.5