Greece 2012

[Landslide Lyndon]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Of course. Especially if are eager to relive the experience of Ceausescu's Romania.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Syriza must win this, then the new government must go tell Merkel that either they get the money they need or the whole eurozone goes down.

The reports I've seen in the last several days seem to indicate that Greece leaving the Eurozone wouldn't actually be the end of the world. Even if the extreme left-wing wants it to be true.

Of course. Especially if are eager to relive the experience of Ceausescu's Romania.

Think it would get that bad? I admit I don't have much insight into how bad things really are on the ground in Greece.

Either way, I do feel sorry that we all got ourselves into this mess to begin with. And I'm not pointing fingers at any one nationality here. I think everyone jumped into this focused on a grand political project without adequately considering the potential consequences.

We are broke, we don't produce anything (we import garlic from China and lemons from Morocco!) and our public administration is in shambles and rife with corruption.

If we return to drachma we will probably experience inflation around 50%. We will be unable to buy oil, medicine and other vital supplies and the people will need in a few months a couple of millions just to buy a loaf of bread.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So I guess the big question is, Px: Will the voters show the maturity they failed to show in the last elections when confronted with this possibility?

Hope springs eternal.
But right now I wouldn't bet my house on that.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The biggest mistake and miscalculation that Merkozy did was when last November they humiliated Papandreou at Cannes, after the latter decided to hold a referendum about whether we wanted to stay in the Euro or return to drachma. They failed to see that by doing that they essentially discredited the only politician who was seriously trying to pass the necessary reforms and opened the can of worms named instability.

If the referendum was held then, the pro-Euro position would have prevailed with 70-80% and nobody would dare to play chicken with the EU like Tsipras does know.

[Landslide Lyndon]

For anyone who has the stomach, here is a really dystopian view of the future in case of a Greel exit from the Euro.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/if-greece-exits-here-what-happens

[Landslide Lyndon]

And if I were a Greek... after "having voted" DIMAR last month (SRYZA being my 2nd option) I'd probably come back home and vote Venizelos. I used to dislike him because he seems to be as conservative as Bono in Spain and even more opportunistic, I'm beginning to believe he really cares about Greece. So, it'd be DIMAR or PASOK, that for sure.

Venizelos is a corrupt, narcissistic jerk, too enamored with the sound of his voice. He is the poster boy of our bloated client state and along with his lieutenants did everything he could to undermine Papandreou and the other reform-minded ministers.

I will vote ND before I even consider to do so for PASOK as long as this demagogue is their leader.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The ECB can very well print money and act as lender of last resort, there is no need for a law to do that. The only obstacle is Germany's psychotic fear of inflation.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I've already started withdrawing my money and sending them to Cyprus.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I've already started withdrawing my money and sending them to Cyprus.

Better send it to UK.

Difficult. I must go in person there and open an account, and probably give proof that I have a residence there too.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Residence? For the moment you are still in EU, aren't you? So, even if they ask for it, establishing residence shouldn't be hard.

You know the UK, they must be different in everything they do from the continent.

[Landslide Lyndon]

px, who did you vote for/will vote for?

I mentioned before the elections that I'd vote for DISY on May 6.

This time I'll wait and see. If the first place is contested then I might be forced to hold my nose and vote for ND, just to stop those SYRIZA clowns from taking us back to the drachma.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The ECB can very well print money and act as lender of last resort, there is no need for a law to do that. The only obstacle is Germany's psychotic fear of inflation.

If the ECB starts doing this at a scale that's going to make a difference for Greece, within a few years euro will be a currency of Greece and Greece alone )

Yeah, just like all that quantitative easing by the Fed devalued the dollar.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Yeah, that meanie doesn't want to give me his money...guess I should hold a gun to his head. Right, Antonio?

I guess you know that it has never been about actually giving any money, right ?

If SYRIZA wins, it was a lot of money given.

Well, we wouldn't be there if the German governments didn't bullied neoliberalism on all Europe...

You know, I do think you're rather simplifying this problem. I think several things happened that even made this situation possible, such as forming a common currency in the first place, not to mention the corrupt former Greek governments falsifying their data and so on to get in.

Everybody, even Germany falsified their data to get in. That's common knowledge by now.
The problem is that we continued to do so afterwards. But even then it was Merkel and Baroso who turned a blind eye to the shenanigans of their conservative pal, Karamanlis.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Even if we suppose that Greece deserves all the punishment it gets, why are the Germans imposing the same punishment on countries like Ireland and Spain which were examples of fiscal prudence until 2008?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Even if we suppose that Greece deserves all the punishment it gets, why are the Germans imposing the same punishment on countries like Ireland and Spain which were examples of fiscal prudence until 2008?

Germany is not imposing a punishment on anyone - not even on Greece.

Yes she does. Merkel said as much to Papandreou when he asked for a more lenient program back in 2010. Go read the WSJ article from a couple of days ago.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Four new polls out today. Two of them show SYRIZA ahead and the other two ND. PASOK is on the rise too, the smaller parties fade. This is going to be a polarizing election.

[Landslide Lyndon]

And Public Issue's poll:

SYRIZA 28%
ΝD        24%
PASOK 15%
ΑNEL      8%
DIMAR     7%
KKE        5%
XA          4,5
DIMIOURGIA XANA 3%

[Landslide Lyndon]

What is dimiourga xana ?

A Neo-liberal party. It was founded recently by a businessman. You won't like it a bit.

How are LAOS doing?

Terribly.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Do you think that the neo-liberals will coalesce behind one party? DISY and DRASI haven't been registering support in the last few polls while Recreate Greece is performing slightly better than their electoral support, which was a clear over-performance considering they were founded a few months ago.

Conservatives are already coalescing behind ND to stop SYRIZA. DISY's president Dora Bakoyianni is close to a deal with Samaras and DRASI will probably abstain from this election.
LAOS, ANEL and XA have also seen their numbers come down sharply as their voters are simply terrified after what they have seen and heard till now by the members of SYRIZA.

PASOK is also registering a slight uptick, probably old voters who stayed out on May 6 or voted for SYRIZA, DIMAR and KKE.

[Landslide Lyndon]

For the first time since 6 May elections, one poll (Marc/Alpha) indicate ND lead with 23.1 % (SYRIZA 21 %). ND and PASOK combined would get 164 seats. Can they form coalition in case of such election result?

Yeah, 151 seats gets them a majority of 1.

I understand, I asked about how likely that both ND and PASOK will agree to form coalition. Before 6 May ND rejected such possibility. What now say ND and PASOK leaders?

It's a virtual certainty. Of course having just 151-52 could be problematic. But if they manage to get 160+ together, then it's a done deal.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Four new polls today and they all show ND ahead by margins from 1,1 to 5,7%.

Kappa Research



ALCO



MARC



And MRB has the following results:

ND                    23,3%
SYRIZA             22,2%
PASOK              13,8%
ANEL                     7%
DIMAR                5,7%
KKE                       5%
XA                         4%

[Landslide Lyndon]

As much as Lagarde's statements were impolitic and clumsy, it pains me to say that they were absolutely true. Our governments failed miserably when it comes to cracking down on tax evasion and reforming our judicial system (a necessary act because thousands of tax cases are stagnating for years, if not decades, in our courts).

And the people here are not innocent. Not only because many of them are evading taxes but also because those that they don't do not seem to care enough so that they apply pressure on our politicians to end this game or help the state to catch corrupt IRS officers when they ask bribes.

P.S. I'd love to see Bacon King's analysis of the new polls.

[Landslide Lyndon]

There is now a fifth poll from Pulse showing ND ahead.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Lyndon, is there a chance of a left-wing coalition between SYRIZA and PASOK if SYRIZA tops the polls, or is the only realistic alternatives with DIMAR and/or ANEL? And how well would SYRIZA and ANEL actually get along?

And while I'm asking questions anyway, why does KKE use Latin letters for their short from?

If SYRIZA comes first then that's probably what's going to happen (SYRIZA-PASOK-DIMAR) because as sure as hell nobody is anywhere close to getting a majority.
Forget about ANEL, they are a bunch of right-wing cranks. Tsipras might occasionally talk favorably about them but he knows very well that if he accepts them in a coalition he will become a joke.

And those are greek letters dude. They stand for "Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας" (Communist Party of Greece).

[Landslide Lyndon]

New poll from GPO, the 6th in a row that shows SYRIZA falling behind ND. The trend is undeniable now.