Australia General Discussion

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Brilliant employment report... over 50,000 jobs created in April, participation rate up and unemployment down to 5.5%...

Sorry to disappoint but that still won't help relieve Labor's woes

Lol... it's amusing you think I think it would make a whiff of difference.

After watching the Lib IR announcement today... I said "he's just won the election".

Polls will tighten, but I don't see how Gillard can pull this out... people have just stopped listening, it's as simple as that.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Honestly, I think the issues are about perception...

I agree on 'leadership', Gillard isn't seen a strong leader (plus she still is seen as a liar and disloyal)... which will hurt, but the second is perceptions on personal economic security. Funnily, I think the carbon price is an increasingly weak element of this. Despite ALL evidence to the contrary.... people seem to think the economy is weak.

To me, it'll be about leadership and the perceived economy.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

New taxes as part of that new bipartisan Medicare thing, amirite? Abbott will have to choose between repealing one or both taxes- I suspect he pushes hard on mining-, a faster balance schedule and his own entitlement hobbyhorse. Plus the baby bonus was axed, kudos to Gillard/Swan for that. Libs added plenty of entitlements last time they were in office, and as we say in French, "sa suffit."

Too many entitlements for people who didn't need them. I don't care what Howard and Costello say, these are MASSIVE drains on the economy, it's fine to have these massive handouts (which is what they are) when the revenue is streaming in... but when revenue slows down (which it will regardless of who is in power) there are consequences on the bottom line if you keep them.

The surplus won't come until 2016-17... but I think people need to consider this... they've found over $300b in savings since 08 and there have been revenue write-downs of $170b ... and they're less than $20b short of a surplus... it's actually pretty fricking remarkable.

There have been some errors, namely weakening the mining tax to the extent that they did ($6 billion in tax credits against it, which is why it's bring in f*%( all).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

New taxes as part of that new bipartisan Medicare thing, amirite? Abbott will have to choose between repealing one or both taxes- I suspect he pushes hard on mining-, a faster balance schedule and his own entitlement hobbyhorse. Plus the baby bonus was axed, kudos to Gillard/Swan for that. Libs added plenty of entitlements last time they were in office, and as we say in French, "sa suffit."

Too many entitlements for people who didn't need them. I don't care what Howard and Costello say, these are MASSIVE drains on the economy, it's fine to have these massive handouts (which is what they are) when the revenue is streaming in... but when revenue slows down (which it will regardless of who is in power) there are consequences on the bottom line if you keep them.

The surplus won't come until 2016-17... but I think people need to consider this... they've found over $300b in savings since 08 and there have been revenue write-downs of $170b ... and they're less than $20b short of a surplus... it's actually pretty fricking remarkable.

There have been some errors, namely weakening the mining tax to the extent that they did ($6 billion in tax credits against it, which is why it's bring in f*%( all).

I'm a bit speechless. We're in total agreement on an economic issue, that is the entitlements.

Well, I support making sure the unemployed and those who need help get it. But I don't support forking out $5000 for someone who has a child or to make sure people with plenty of money to pay for their kids private school uniforms or laptops ...

There was a woman who asked the PM a question about "why her family wasn't getting anything under the carbon price" - she would have had a household income well over $150k per year... this is the entitlement mentality we need to throw off, not support for people who need it. Sometimes, in a society, you pay more than you're going to get back.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Rudd now supports SSM, I crossposted this in the election thread.

He's in the process of a press conference in Brisbane as I write.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Actually, considering this is an open election with a lot of candidates and without Tony Windsor's deep personal vote and Barnaby's profile being thrown into the mix... I would be very hesitant to put too much weight on the results.

It's not that they're not useful at all... but there are a lot of elements in this that are unrelated to the Federal Election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's an impressive result, especially considering the NAT is what? 25? (he looks about 17... but I think he's mid-20s)

But the only thing I would say people should be thinking about - this is a natural NAT area - the ALP hasn't done well there in generations. They will instinctively vote NAT when there isn't a strong local Independent, and they have now.

The other thing in relation to Armidale, MOST Uni students who live away from home tend to keep their electoral enrolment at their family home. So yes, the NATs did better than normal - but it's not an electorate full of "lefty Uni types".

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Kevin Rudd is putting his Canberra home on the market - good luck with that considering the Abbottocalypse has already sent home prices down and killed the market.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It always ends up happening on royal anniversaries... since today is the 60th anniversary of the Queen's coronation, I expected it.

It's funny, the support for the Monarchy is strongest in the old and the young. I can't imagine any Republican option having a prayer until the Queen's death, even then... the moment was the late 90s and the Republican side screwed themselves.

Reading the comments, they seemed to be 40+ leftists saying "cut the apron strings" and everyone else saying... "why?"

15-20 years time, give me a yell...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think Rudd will have to stay on for a year or 18 months after a loss. Especially since I expect a very narrow Coalition victory and the Greens keeping the BoP in the Senate now, they can't change horses that soon.

I think Rudd can legitimately hold on after a small loss, considering what the expected outcome was a week ago.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

What if Labor actually *wins* the election?  I assume that Abbott is then toast as Liberal leader?

Without question, he'll step down on the night.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If Labor were to win 76 seats and Abbott did step down, who might replace him?

I would guess Joe Hockey or Malcolm Turnbull.

It's difficult to tell... but yeah, I'd say they're the top chances, it still wouldn't shock me to see Julie Bishop have a crack after being deputy to three leaders in a row.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I really don't see Abbott staying on unless he forms government...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

At least it's nice to see that Rudd's cabinet seems markedly more left-wing than Gillard's.

This surprises me - that's not the feeling I was getting from Rudd's leadership at all? He seemed firmly on the Blairite centrist vote - not the left's man.

To be fair, it was the left that was loyal to him in 2010...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Incoming Foreign Minister Julie Bishop cutting back on travel expenses:
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bishop-cancels-first-class-tickets-to-new-york-20130913-2tq8p.html

All I can say is YES!

Gotta love those meaningless 'gestures' - reduction from First to Business probably lowers the cost from about $10k to $8k... it's good for the cheap seats through - hence their victory.

And Bishop will NEVER be leader ... if it was about merit and effectiveness - why isn't Kelly O'Dwyer at least a Parli Sec? You're telling me there wasn't ANY female talent in the junior pool worthy of elevation to Cabinet? Give me a break.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Tony Abbott is now Australia's 28th Prime Minister. Rest of the Cabinet will be sworn in starting about 15 min from now, and Mirabella has just conceded.

One nugget of good news in that pile.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Abbott didn't choose Julie Bishop as his deputy, she was the deputy under Turnbull and when the Turnbull coup happened it was agreed that she would hold the deputy's position unchallenged to placate the Western Australians, who were sick of all the leader options being from the suburbs of Sydney.

Abbott-Turnbull-Nelson-Howard all having essentially neighbouring seats is not unnoticed within the party. Add in Hockey and the trend is even clearer - Bennelong, North Sydney, Bradfield, Warringah, Wentworth.

All we need now is for Labor to go with Albanese and Plibersek and Sydney's dominance will be absolute

Huzzah!!!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm just pleased that Bishop's a capable econodry, especially on IR (though that'll have to wait for the next Coalition cycle). Hopefully more young econodry stars emerge in the Abbott era. One can never have a deep enough leadership bench so far as I'm concerned.

and I look forward to another fight on IR with the econodries... 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

And this just gets better...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The swings in Sydney in 2011 were totally hysterical, that seat is nowhere near a natural 20%+ seat. It'll come down to how much anti-Labor venom remains. If there's still a bit, the swing could be -4-7% but I can see -10%+ pretty easily.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The polling is somewhat strange - it's unusual for no honeymoon bump to appear, let alone slides backwards. Plus, the Essential preferred PM numbers are shocking for a new PM, +5 against Shorten and +6 against Albanese - with Abbott below 40%.

Frankly, anyone who can objectively say they've gotten off to a good start is a bit delusional.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Considering how popular Albo is with the party membership ... he'd be well-advised to keep his mouth shut. Frankly I found the whole 'Shorten is the natural heir to Hawke/Keating' stuff I'm hearing from an increasingly unnerved right faction to be utter-utter drivel.

I'm not going to lie, I've been more impressed with him over the past fortnight than I ever have ... but I still don't see either a fighter or a leader.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I would have MUCH preferred Kelly.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've heard Shorten has a lead among the caucus, with about 15 genuinely undecided.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's 50/50 - it doesn't follow the UK model.