Ireland by-elections, 2014

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So I imagine this seat will likely fall back into Fianna Fail? Given that it managed to save the seat even in the blowout 2011 election? Have FF managed to recover from being shut entirely out of Dublin?

Irish politics is admittedly quite confusing, so this might be incorrect.

It's possible but I think unlikely. Strangely enough I reckon the favourite here is STOP THE WATER TAX The Socialist Party.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

A very detailed profile of the constituency here

It was written at the time of the last by-election.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Worth noting: Back in 2011 this was one of the few seats where the combined Labour+SF+Far Left vote was over 50%. And this is a place where the left parties definitely do transfer to each other.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

There will be another by-election, presumably held at the same time, in Longford-Westmeath (which is ObserverIE's constituency) due to the death of sitting Fine Gael TD Nicky McFadden

(Too soon?)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Who should be favored in Longford–Westmeath? My first inclination would be to say FF, but it hasn't been a particularly good constituency for them in the recent past, and this government hasn't lost a by-election yet.

I would personally lean towards FG holding the seat although FF are sure to pour all their resources here as victory would indicate evidence of their 'comeback' (although this will be after the locals so by then we'll know much better if the 'comeback' is on or not). Either way, it will be between the two traditional parties unless a local and potentially popular independent candidate gets involved.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/gabrielle-mcfadden-confirms-by-election-run-1.1767216

SURPRISE!

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Box-by-box tallies for Longford-Westmeath from the 2011 election:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9DLhLl2w63QzQ3VkZ3ZFlNSFU

Where did you get this?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Box-by-box tallies for Longford-Westmeath from the 2011 election:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9DLhLl2w63QzQ3VkZ3ZFlNSFU

It's the results of the Longford part of Longford-Westmeath.

Go down to page 20.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Box-by-box tallies for Longford-Westmeath from the 2011 election:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9DLhLl2w63QzQ3VkZ3ZFlNSFU

In short, FG won almost everwhere.
Only exceptions are in Longford EA. More specifically, a tie in Glack with Labour, and Labour wins in Longford Rural and Longford Urban Central.

These places are all in Longford Town. They voted Labour because Mae Sexton (Labour) is from Glack. I'm sure they also voted for Mae Sexton (PD) in 2002 when she got elected on the other side of the political spectrum. This is a good illustration of how weakly party affiliation determines voting in Ireland, especially in rural areas.

Mae Sexton has had the sort of career trajectory only a TD could have.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I realise now that my choice of language was poor. Longford town isn't very rural, though Sexton's electoral base is more the rural outskirts rather than the estates of resettled Dublin council tenants; I should have said "areas of Ireland outside major cities" tend to overlook party affiliation.

To a large degree it's "areas of Ireland outside Dublin" but I'm just repeating what you said.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Box-by-box tallies for Longford-Westmeath from the 2011 election:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0By9DLhLl2w63QzQ3VkZ3ZFlNSFU

In short, FG won almost everwhere.
Only exceptions are in Longford EA. More specifically, a tie in Glack with Labour, and Labour wins in Longford Rural and Longford Urban Central.

These places are all in Longford Town. They voted Labour because Mae Sexton (Labour) is from Glack. I'm sure they also voted for Mae Sexton (PD) in 2002 when she got elected on the other side of the political spectrum. This is a good illustration of how weakly party affiliation determines voting in Ireland, especially in rural areas.

Mae Sexton has had the sort of career trajectory only a TD could have.

She's not actually moved that much if at all - she's just had different party labels slapped on her at different times (Labour had already been wooing her in the mid 90s before the PDs intervened).

Exactly.

This is a country in which a Labour-PD swing voter was actually a thing once.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

This is a country in which a Labour-PD swing voter was actually a thing once.

I can imagine the sort of creature that might be (social liberal but hands off my wallet), and imagine most of them would have lived up your direction.

Sexton herself wouldn't fit particularly well into either of the parties she was a member of.

I believe (I don't have the data on me) that there was at least by 2002 a surprising strong tendency for transfers of one party to go to the other. And yes, they would have been mostly around here but then again by 2002 the PDs as a party organization were essentially restricted to around here and the O'Malley legacy vote in Limerick.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

This is a country in which a Labour-PD swing voter was actually a thing once.

I can imagine the sort of creature that might be (social liberal but hands off my wallet), and imagine most of them would have lived up your direction.

Sexton herself wouldn't fit particularly well into either of the parties she was a member of.

I believe (I don't have the data on me) that there was at least by 2002 a surprising strong tendency for transfers of one party to go to the other. And yes, they would have been mostly around here but then again by 2002 the PDs as a party organization were essentially restricted to around here and the O'Malley legacy vote in Limerick.

Plus the Molloy legacy vote in Galway (which has outlasted everything else).

And who can forget the 2007 election, where Labour promised more and bigger income tax cuts than everyone else, and the PDs promised to increase the old-age pension to €300 and abolish stamp duty "because we don't need the money" ((c) M. McDowell)?

Labour's 2007 campaign was perhaps the most cringeworthy campaign by a political party* in modern Irish political history although I'm aware that there's great competition for the title.

(* - speaking of Stamp duty who can forget the blatant boosterism of the Sindo's campaign to abolish it during the 2007 campaign? Thinking about it for a minute makes me glad for a moment that the bubble popped as ingloriously as it did).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Labour's 2007 campaign was perhaps the most cringeworthy campaign by a political party* in modern Irish political history although I'm aware that there's great competition for the title.

(* - speaking of Stamp duty who can forget the blatant boosterism of the Sindo's campaign to abolish it during the 2007 campaign? Thinking about it for a minute makes me glad for a moment that the bubble popped as ingloriously as it did).

No, I think FG's 2002 "compensate taxi drivers and Eircom shareholders" campaign takes that particular crown, and even FG's 2007 "Sign The Contract!!!" effort runs it close. But to quote the 2007 Labour leader, "isn't that the kind of thing that you tend to say during elections?".

It does make it easier to understand how FF won three successive elections when that was the opposition.

Oh god.... I had forgotten about that. But still though:

[Tetro Kornbluth]

But still though:

At least they can say they inspired Pharrell...

I see your 2007 and raise you:

They should have run on the Celtic Snail.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Oh LOL

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Labour now "unlikely" to contest Longford-Westmeath. Their intended candidate (aka the only sap who could be persuaded to put their name on the ballot paper) has pulled out due to discovering that he has college exams.

"Shambles" is too kind a word at this stage.

LOL. Oh lord. Hahahahaha...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The results are being counted today:

Looks like the Shinners have a chance in Dublin West

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[Tetro Kornbluth]

Longford-Westmeath as expected

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[Tetro Kornbluth]

With the results of the EP elections now mostly in we now know that there will be two by-elections some time later this year: one to replace Brian Hayes (FG) in Dublin South-West and the other to replace Luke 'Ming' Flanagan (IND) in Roscommon-South Leitrim. I might go into detail later but given the local election results money would be on SF in the former and FF in the latter but, again, as this is Ireland a lot will depend on candidates.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Bump.

The two by-elections (Dublin South West and Roscommon-South Leitrim) are tomorrow. Both are two-horse races with one horse very favoured: SF in the former and FF in the latter being chased respectively by the Socialist Party and an Independent who has been set up as the successor to the previous incumbent, Ming Flanagan.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Looks like Fitzmaurice and Murphy have got this.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

There are now six Trotskyites in the Dail, representing three different political parties. Two of these have been elected in by-elections thanks to conservative voters preferring them to SF.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

There are now six Trotskyites in the Dail, representing three different political parties. Two of these have been elected in by-elections thanks to conservative voters preferring them to SF.

Seven and four if you include Séamus Healy.

FGers know on which side their bread is buttered, and which set of insurrectionists are most likely to implode into a mess of warring factions.

I was thinking of including Healy, but I don't think he's a trot so much as associates with them.

On the other side, there is John Halligan who as an ex-member of the WP was (is?) a tankie.