The Official Trump 1.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Yeah, pbrower shouldn't include it in his map because it looks really crappy.

Florida should not be significantly more hostile to President Trump than the rest of the country. When someone starts showing polls of Florida (because there will be a Senate race and a Gubernatorial race in 2018) we should see polls of Florida more credible than this one.

No undecided? People in transition from approval to disapproval or vice-versa go through 'undecided'.

[pbrower2a]

NC (High Point University)

Adults: 36-52 disapprove
RV only: 36-51 disapprove

HPU showed Hillary winning NC by 1%.

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2017/02/50memoA.pdf

Consistent with the poll of Florida by Florida Atlantic University... and 8% worse than for Trump nationwide as shown in Gallup polls?


Unless Democrats are regaining the Carter 1976 coalition, this is absurd. Strange things can happen with a highly-unpopular President.

What could be happening?

1. Outliers may be telling us something. As elections of 2010, 2014, and 2016 show, outlier points of data may be right. But even if they are exaggerations, Florida and North Carolina are at least as hostile to Donald Trump as the nationwide polls by Gallup.

2. President Trump may prove to be a poor cultural match for parts of the South, even if in two states that are marginally Southern. The core South may have seen President Obama as a d@mn-Yankee pol more than as a black man. Southerners have their own idea of what black people are, and those are not people with a recent African ancestor. Could Donald Trump be even more of a d@mn-Yankee than Obama?

I'd like to see Obama approval as a check. It's hard to quantify "niceness", but if Obama barely lost both states and fares better than Trump, then these results are somewhat consistent.

3. President Trump has been having a difficult Presidency because he has bungled so much early. Later polls may reflect this. If the polls showed Michigan and Wisconsin with such approval ratings, then would you accept them? We have accepted polls in this range in California and New Jersey.

4. These two states got polled often in 2012, 2014, and 2016. Both have been  essential to a Republican win of the presidency, but neither has been necessary.  I expect much the same for 2018. I am tempted to show the two states with the   Gallup national average than with the statewide polls by colleges that few people know  about outside of the states.  I can treat them as 42/52, which is the Gallup average.

NC (High Point University)

Adults: 36-52 disapprove
RV only: 36-51 disapprove

HPU showed Hillary winning NC by 1%.

http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2017/02/50memoA.pdf

This looks less dubious than that FL poll, if only because they include undecideds

I can adjust them to the Gallup nationwide poll.
 

[pbrower2a]

Florida, North Carolina

Possible outlier polls emerged, suggesting that Donald Trump has a very troubled Presidency, at least as shown in two states that he barely won in November. A cautious approach is to figure that the two states disapprove of the President at roughly the same rate as the nationwide polls of Gallup show. The letter G will be added to the number of electoral votes for each state because even if I believe that approval in the mid-thirties in these two states is an exaggeration, approval in the low 40s is not.

These two states got polled often in recent years, so I expect replacements soon enough. 


Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[pbrower2a]

I'm not sure it makes sense to look at historical averages covering both parties when trying to predict midterm losses in the House.  At the moment, at least, there's a pretty significant asymmetry between the two parties in terms of how efficiently their voters are distributed geographically, such that the Dems would need a rather substantial margin of victory in the national House popular vote in order to win back the chamber.  Trump might be unpopular, but unless the people who don't like him are geographically distributed in an optimal way, it won't matter.

Whether President Trump will be unpopular in the late summer and early autumn of 2018 is yet to be known. But if he should be unpopular enough, Democrats will have  enough of an edge in the national popular vote for the House that they can swing as many as 42 House seats by winning districts that are up to R+5... enough for an unambiguous majority. That would take about a 55-45 split in the vote.  But if enough people want to constrain him, that is what they will have to do.

[pbrower2a]

The Democrats have a solution for winning the Presidency in 2020 -- nominate the political figure most similar to former President Obama in  ideology and temperament. Basically another Eisenhower.

[pbrower2a]

MI - EPIC MRA:

Favorable ratings

39-48 Trump
44-46 Snyder
59-37 Obama

Overall, based on what you have heard or read, how would you rate the job that has been done so far by Donald Trump during the transition and now as President – would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

40% Excellent/Good
54% Fair/Poor

Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Rick Snyder as Michigan’s Governor – would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

37% Excellent/Good
61% Fair/Poor

http://woodtv.com/2017/02/08/poll-majority-unhappy-with-president-trumps-start

Not a great pollster, but it's telling that the results are much like those in Florida and North Carolina for the President. Democrats have a good chance of doing very well in Michigan in 2018, which means taking the Governorship, protecting what would be a vulnerable Senate seat if the Trump trend shown in 2016 were to hold, and even picking off a couple of House seats.  State legislature? Too little data.

Republicans have been governing Michigan as if it were Oklahoma... that may end in early 2019.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan. It barely went for President Trump, and this poll suggests that the state will turn sharply against Republicans in 2018 and 2020. President Trump gets poor approval and favorability ratings, and so does the incumbent Republican Governor. Favorability and approval are not significantly different this time.

Because of the "excellent-good-fair-poor" alternative, I would ordinarily reject this... but at this stage it is better than nothing, and the pollster clearly states that 'fair' is an unflattering rating.
Democrats will protect their incumbent Senator effectively and will elect the next Governor, if the trend holds.

President Trump will get no help from the new Michigan governor in 2020. I have no idea of whether Governor Snyder suppressed the vote in Michigan, but his Democratic successor certainly won't.

Global warming can't undo this political Winter of Discontent.

... Seeming outlier polls in Florida and North Carolina, two states that also barely went for Donald Trump, aren't so preposterous after all.


Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[pbrower2a]

The approvals are basically the conned staying with the con artist until something jars them. I doubt people who voted for him want to own up just yet. It'll take more than a few tweets and it will take some stupid unnecessary economic issues for people to grasp Trump was a bad idea.  So in context these polls make sense. 

Having been at a Democratic meeting clearly open to the general public tonight... this community may be much more pro-Trump  than the national average, being heavily rural and blue-collar... it is safe to say that there is something to offend practically everyone about Donald Trump as President. Sport hunters who might have fallen for the most resolute expression of opposition to 'taking away your guns' may have a problem with someone who endorses the ravaging of the environment. What good is a deer rifle if there are no deer to hunt because the deer get sick and die if they drink from a polluted stream or if the venison from the deer is contaminated with chromium-6, dioxin, or other bad chemicals? Midwestern grain farmers really need winter blizzards to keep moisture in place for crops germinating in the spring and replenish the ground water so that they can have good (and profitable) crop yields.

We still have the Obama economy and Obama military/foreign policy working. That can insulate him for a while, but he has blown it badly on refugees and undocumented aliens. A family of seven might have two illegal-alien parents, two kids also illegal aliens because their parents slipped them illegally over the border as very young children, and three US-born US citizens. Refugees from hot zones of genocide and brutal repression? Better here in America than being murdered or being brainwashed with anti-American propaganda over there. In view of the contempt that President Trump has for his above-average predecessor, I can see most of the benefits of having Barack Obama as President coming to abrupt ends, and with hideous consequences to America, Americans, and as a result  the approval of Donald Trump. To be sure, it is possible to be very different from a predecessor who was good and still be a good President, as with Kennedy following Eisenhower.  But if there is any Eisenhower-to-Kennedy comparison to Obama-to-Trump it stops with similarities of temperament, character, and achievements between Eisenhower and Obama. Donald Trump is so far from being another JFK so far that the only similarity that he can have is a foreshortened term of office.

(Moderators, please go gentle on that. I did not say how his term might be foreshortened!)       

[pbrower2a]

WV - Orion Strategies (Feb. 2-4)

58% approve
37% disapprove

Gov. Jim Justice (D):

37% approve
22% disapprove

http://www.newsandsentinel.com/news/local-news/2017/02/survey-west-virginia-residents-see-positive-future

CA - PPIC (Jan. 22-31)

30-58 (all adults)
21-65 (non-registered adults)
33-56 (registered voters)
34-55 (likely voters)

Gov. Jerry Brown (D):

62-24 (all adults)
69-11 (non-registered adults)
60-30 (registered voters)
62-31 (likely voters)

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_AllAdults0117.pdf

So at looks as if the President finally has a state in which he is popular.

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[pbrower2a]

When the Trump Administration goes down in flames in November 2020... we Americans will be partying like it is 1989 again... in Berlin.

[pbrower2a]

I'm not bothered by this. Approvals are mid-40s to low 50s depending on the polls, which were all off for two years with him, and he always polls bad anyways. Unless his name is on the ballot.

Again, reading this forum gives false predictors. Going by the posts on this forum, 2014 was going to be a decent year for Dems, Jack Conway was going to be Gov of KY, and 2016 was going to be a DEM landslide. Why believe you now?

Everything looks  bad for Democrats now. 2018 ought to be a wave election for Republicans, with Republicans getting Constitutional majorities in both Houses of Congress, which which they can establish themselves as the permanent "leading force of politics" (language adopted from Article 6 of the Constitution of the Soviet Union) and establish a Christian and Corporate State in which non-Christian religions, contraception, abortions, and labor unions can be outlawed.  Maybe people can get the freedom to sign peonage contracts.

So much for the dream of the American Right. Reality is that Donald Trump is spectacularly unpopular spectacularly early. Democrats are doing well with fund-raising. Rallies contesting policies of President Trump  are commonplace. A recent poll projects an 8% edge in the Congressional ballot for 2018. 46% of Americans want the President impeached (which probably isn't going to happen).

So much about  the Trump Presidency is an early disaster. President Trump can double down in expectation of miracles... which is likely to fail. If he fails, then he can backtrack, which makes him look weak and ineffective. With a Senate majority out of the question, people can turn to the House of Representatives and state government in 2018 and can replace some Republican governors with Democrats.

What worked against a generally-competent President (Obama) will work far better against a President (Trump) who is seen as domineering and incompetent.   

[pbrower2a]

Also from PPP

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6.

That's on Trump. If you never stop campaigning, don't be surprised when the other side decides every day is essentially election day.

If anyone has a chart on the support for impeachment of Richard Nixon beginning in November 1972 or earlier it would be welcome for a comparison.

[pbrower2a]

Also from PPP

Just three weeks into his administration, voters are already evenly divided on the issue of impeaching Trump with 46% in favor and 46% opposed. Support for impeaching Trump has crept up from 35% 2 weeks ago, to 40% last week, to its 46% standing this week. While Clinton voters initially only supported Trump's impeachment 65/14, after seeing him in office over the last few weeks that's gone up already to 83/6.

That's on Trump. If you never stop campaigning, don't be surprised when the other side decides every day is essentially election day.

If anyone has a chart on the support for impeachment of Richard Nixon beginning in November 1972 or earlier it would be welcome for a comparison.

Thank you.

[pbrower2a]

When a country's leader is considered a literal joke, then it's probably impossible for America to ever recover it's prestige.

Just elect someone like JFK or Obama (who are extremely unlike, with Obama more like Eisenhower in contrast to JFK, which is about as different as two good Presidents can be)... and America can get respect again for having a much greater likelihood of doing the right thing.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There's nothing like a bad President to tear down his Party in Congress. Republicans who can't see that possibility with Donald Trump have forgotten how they took down the Democratic majorities in both Houses of Congress and eventually the Presidency with someone really good as President. A bad President exposes whatever weaknesses members of Congress from his Party have. This is happening much faster with Donald Trump than with Barack Obama. Republicans figured out what to do with Obama in far less time than Democrats are figuring out what to do with Donald Trump.

He isn't fair... and he doesn't even understand the Bill of Rights and the tradition of indifference to religion in the heritage of America. I'm sure that many of us already have been adapting the famous Niemöller quote...

First they came for the Muslims... AND I SPOKE OUT!

I have no idea of how long it will take for President Trump to back down. If he does he will look like a fool. If he doesn't back down he will be an even bigger fool.

[pbrower2a]

NH - UNH:

43% approve
48% disapprove

42% favorable
49% unfavorable

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_winter_presapp021017.pdf

Plus, a new IA/Selzer poll will be out later today.

As in Michigan (which looks like a two different categories, but in which the positive assessment differs by 1%) approval and favorability are much the same. Partisan affiliation is very stable in New Hampshire, and it is usually closer than this if one sees positive and negative views predicting an election. Sure, it is 45 months away.

Because it is New Hampshire I would put it on the map now, but we will get a poll from Iowa, a state that went sharply for Donald Trump after being a reliable Obama state. Trump did exceedingly well in the Midwestern states in which farming is much big and ranching is rare.

New Hampshire has some similarities to Michigan, and Michigan has some similarities to Iowa.

[pbrower2a]

I think that Iowa poll will show something like -7 for Trump. A lot of voters there didn't really like Trump, but rather just hated Clinton.

Isn't that how it was almost everywhere?  Trump's fav/unfav in the national exit poll was 38%/60%.  He was underwater on favorability in places like IN, MO, and SC, yet still won those states handily.

That's why I don't get why people are acting as if Trump's popularity is now "crashing".  He was already unpopular on election day.

His lack of popularity may contribute to ineffectiveness as President -- as if we can ignore extreme stands of partisanship that can polarize Americans more fully in opposition to him.

The map of favorability so far demonstrates that Donald Trump never got a solid mandate. When he does something unpopular, people who did not vote for him will find themselves in the position of saying "I didn't vote for him!" Sure, we saw this with Barack Obama, too, but far less of such at the outset  because he won clear majorities of the vote twice and because he was far less abrasive.

From now on the positions and behavior of the President are everything. He will have to change his ways, letting the normal processes of legislation work as we are accustomed to seeing them work, making sure that his executive orders violate neither the Constitution nor statutory law, and not tweeting whatever gets into his mind at the moment.

Americans do not like being ordered about on politics, and the President's dictatorial style that might fit other countries cannot work here.

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire:

NH - UNH:

43% approve
48% disapprove

42% favorable
49% unfavorable

http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_winter_presapp021017.pdf

(I was waiting for a poll of approval or favorability in Iowa from Selzer, and it is only on the travel ban, so I can't use it)

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[pbrower2a]

It's risky to project a trend. The worst that I can project for President Trump based upon precedent is for him to be as unpopular in 2020 as Hoover was in 1932 or Carter was in 1980 and losing in a landslide.

There was no polling with Hoover, so we have only electoral results as a guide. But Hoover and Carter started with great popularity.

Donald Trump starts unusually low and does nothing to improve his standing among voters. He will not reduce economic inequality in America.

If Donald Trump were running for re-election at this time in 2020 with an approval rating of 40% in a binary election, then the average result that he would get as a vote share in the election would be about 46.5% with an average campaign against an average challenger.  (I am arguing based on Nate Silver's "Rule of 6%", which explains how incumbents with approval ratings of 44% or higher usually get re-elected, those with 43% are iffy, and those with approvals of 40% or less early in the campaign season get defeated if they run for re-election).

Paradoxically that is more than he got in 2016. In 2020 that just won't be enough.

We have no idea what sorts of ups and downs he will have. Maybe he will start a successful war for profits and get away with it.  Who knows?  

[pbrower2a]

I think people are seriously overestimating people's patience with incompetence. What did Bush in was not the ideological stuff, it was mismanagement. Iraq became a quagmire, Katrina a national embarrassment, lethargic response to the economy sliding into recession, infighting, scandals. These weaken base support as people become less inclined to defend their side. It's hard to defend your guy when your opponent can point to so many easy criticisms that have no reasonable response.

The only thing they have right now is "Oh, he's new, give him a chance" - That get's less useful every day and will die a sudden death after the first major challenge highlights this team's inability to run anything competently.

Two things are still going well for him -- the Obama economy and (to the extent that he hasn't made some faux pas in diplomacy with every country that he could possibly make one with) what remains of Obama foreign policy. Yes, the President can maintain policies of his predecessor if he finds them useful, as with Bill Clinton maintaining the Bush '41' foreign policy because it worked well. But Bill Clinton did not have the thorough contempt for his predecessor that Donald Trump has toward Barack Obama. President Trump wants to change everything that his predecessor has 'inflicted' upon America.

When President Trump's new ways go bad, then he might see approvals slip past 35% or so, and the Democrats will not only have the Obama coalition fully intact in 2018 and 2020 but will also regain the Carter-but-not-Obama vote of 1976.

  

[pbrower2a]

One thing to look for: really-big waves depend upon the entry of new generations into the political arena as older generations fade out. People born in the 1930s and 1940s are dying off rapidly, so politicians who might still be competent enough if they have a constituency of people who share the same political culture start retiring from public life or being defeated in elections.

New generations have different concerns than the older generations. The Millennial generation is often heavily in debt with on the whole little savings. Debtors tend to be on the political Left  because they want inflation to gut their burdens and an overheated economy to make earning their way out of debt much easier. Creditors are generally on the right, with small-scale creditors (who might have insurance policies or savings accounts) still concerned about having reliable income to protect their assets from having to be drained in economic downturns  but intent on preventing severe inflation. Big creditors want their pounds of flesh -- to make debt hurt the toiler who has had to borrow, perhaps even pawning himself to survive.

The Millennial generation is entering the stage of life when political careers begin to lead into high offices -- state legislatures, the House and the Senate, and even Governorships. The oldest among them will be in their middle-to-late 30s by 2020, and their pols will have an obvious constituency that the Silent (like Mitch McConnell), Boomers (like Trump and the Clintons) and even X (like Barack Obama) can't fully understand and relate. Obama and Trump have played ethnic demographics for their political successes, if in opposite ways, the former for inclusion and the latter for White Power (yes, that is an ugly slogan, but it fits).  

Millennial adults now fill most of the child-bearing years; even if there are adults in their fifties through seventies fathering children, it is the younger women who will be more important in establishing the culture of children.  Millennial adults are very hands-on parents, and they will not accept poverty in the name of some ideal fifty years from now that requires their children to live in poverty. If they have made great sacrifices on behalf of Corporate America, they do not want their children to get things far worse.

Can I at age 61 speak on behalf of Millennial adults? Hardly. But demographics are the ultimate reality in politics. Politicians who can relate to demographic change can be spectacularly successful. Those that cannot adapt lose.   

[pbrower2a]

Gallup (2/14):

Approve 40%
Disapprove 54%

no change

I was actually expecting this to narrow a bit, as a particularly bad Trump day looked primed to drop out of the rolling three day average... Would indicate that yesterday was at least as bad.

I think it may dip under 40% as the Flynn scandal develops

This is what I think too. Hopefully he does go down.

I already see a Presidency in disarray, a 'gang who can't shoot straight' riding on fine horses (Obama foreign policy and economic stewardship) that they have not been watering and feeding adequately. Should the horses run away, the 'gang who can't shoot straight' are in deep trouble.

I do not predict day-to-day trends; I seek only to explain them. Extrapolation of trends is risky behavior in statistical analysis.

[pbrower2a]

New generations have different concerns than the older generations. The Millennial generation is often heavily in debt with on the whole little savings. Debtors tend to be on the political Left  because they want inflation to gut their burdens and an overheated economy to make earning their way out of debt much easier.

I get what you are saying in the rest of the post, but this part - about "Debtors/lefties wanting inflation" - I don't get it. I don't think I've ever heard any Millennial liberal say they want inflation.

No -- but they certainly do not want deflation that makes debts that they owe for such things as student loans and auto loans to become even more onerous. People with no stake in the economic order do not become conservatives.

Economic elites are most successful in oppressing others when those others are deeply in debt in comparison to their income. Just think of the relationship of landowners to sharecroppers.   

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(I was waiting for a poll of approval or favorability in Iowa from Selzer, and it is only on the travel ban, so I can't use it)  (I have one now)

The Democratic firewall of 2008 and 2012 seems to be forming about four months too late to save America from the "Trumpenstein monster".

Selzer has a reputation as one of the best pollsters around, and it consistently showed Trump almost certain to win Iowa throughout 2016.  This is when Trump approval was already at a 40% approval based upon Gallup national polls.

Iowa is probably about R+2 now..

Donald Trump would lose a state that he won decisively in 2016.

 I would like to see polling results for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin before I project the 2020 election at this stage based on six assumptions:

1. Election not rigged

2. Donald Trump is still President (Mike Pence probably goes down with Donald Trump) -- so the President running for election isn't "Chuck Hagel" or "Mitt Romney", in either case, all bets are off

3. Binary election

4. Approval for President Trump is about the same three years from now

5. The usual gain of 6% from approval to vote share applies to Donald Trump from approval against  the average opponent (according to Nate Silver) applies to the President in the states. 

6. Because favorability and recent polls are relatively close in all states, I can use favorability as a valid proxy in my projections.

Favorability:

Probably our best approximation until about March.


Approval:

Not likely useful until March.


Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%  
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation.  

*National poll, and not a state poll -- the national poll is much more flattering to the President, who is shown in deep trouble in that state, and is likely closer to reality.

[pbrower2a]

If Trump is doing the worst among the rich and is pretty darn negative with white college educated voters, the GA-06 special could be interesting.

"Over $100K" includes lots of well-educated engineers, accountants, physicians, dentists, salespeople, and two-income teaching families... I'm guessing that they don't look kindly upon anti-intellectualism that is the cornerstone of the Trump ethos. 

[pbrower2a]

In one of my favorite comparison maps I demonstrated that an Obama win is practically an inverse of an Eisenhower win. In 2008 and 2012 Obama only once won any state that Adlai Stevenson won in the 1950s -- North Carolina, barely. It's not surprising that he would win only one state that Nixon lost in 1972 (Massachusetts) and Reagan lost in 1984 (Minnesota), as those have been tough states for Republicans to win since 1928. Between those two states and Rhode Island, Republican nominees for President have won those states only four times each since 1924 -- Ike won all three of those states twice. Obama and Eisenhower maps of victory are near inversions of partisan identity.

Both Ike and Obama did extremely well with the 'Educated' vote. Republicans used to do better with educated voters, probably because the core of Democratic strength was long in the under-educated South, where Obama and Ike both did badly. Of course, the ethnic competition of the 'Educated' vote may have changed; first-rate colleges used to be largely a WASP preserve and are no longer such any more. As late as 1964, Republicans got the majority of the 'College-educated' vote even though getting creamed nationally in the 1964 LBJ landslide.

I'm guessing that better-educated people are less amenable to demagoguery and tend to prefer a steady hand. They are conservatives on legal precedent no matter how liberal they may be on other issues.

Elect a steady-hand pol like Eisenhower or Obama, and politics could get deathly boring. Elect Donald Trump and politics can become a circus. Maybe something worse, because the typical circus is allegedly wholesome entertainment.