SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Antonio the Sixth]

We're kind of far from Denmark. For better and worse, I guess.

For better.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I wonder if this could hurt V's electoral results (and thus indirectly the Red Coalition) though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

We're kind of far from Denmark. For better and worse, I guess.

For better.

Don't worry Denmark was where Sweden is in the late 80ties and early 90ties, and what you see in Denmark today are the counterreaction to that. So Sweden can look forward toward 20-30 years of the Danish debate. It will be hilarious.

Indeed, rabid xenophobia is so hilarious...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, it's happening...

[Antonio the Sixth]

The prospect of Sweden Democrats (or alternatively some weird yuppyish center-rightists) holding the balance of power against a weak left-wing government doesn't strike me as particularly exciting, but that's just me.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What happened?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Theoretically, a 5-point lead with one week to go should be safe. I'm pretty sure that's what Nate Silver would say. Of course, that really means nothing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think it's time for countries that use PR with thresholds (see also Germany with the FDP debacle) to start thinking of a way to correct the ensuing misrepresentation. They could for example introduce IRV among list (so that if a party comes below the threshold their vote is redistributed among 2nd preference getters) or electoral coalitions (where the vote is redistributed among other members of the coalition).

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think it's time for countries that use PR with thresholds (see also Germany with the FDP debacle) to start thinking of a way to correct the ensuing misrepresentation. They could for example introduce IRV among list (so that if a party comes below the threshold their vote is redistributed among 2nd preference getters) or electoral coalitions (where the vote is redistributed among other members of the coalition).

Its a lot easier just to lower the threshold. 4-5% is simply too high, if you use 2% as we do in Denmark the problem is virtually non-existent.

I could certainly understand why other countries wouldn't want to end up with the level of parliamentary fragmentation you have in Denmark (or at least that you had in the 70s-80s).

I agree that 5% is too high, but IMO 3 or 4% is about right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

* Feminist Initiative by 4%

It's happening?

[Antonio the Sixth]

At this point, I think lending votes to get FI over the threshold might actually be the best strategy for the left. Risky, but worth the try.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Come on, we really need those lend votes for FI!

[Antonio the Sixth]

I won't make a prediction, for fear of being disappointed. Let's just say I'll consider it a success if FI gets above the threshold and the four left-wing parties together have a majority.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, France also uses multiple paper ballots. And most people take all of them into the polling booth (as I did, out of respect for established traditions).

Word on the street (and by street i mean precinct officers) is that turn-out seems to be higher this year than in 2010. Lines are being reported in polling stations where there's been no lines before, despite the fact that early voting is breaking record numbers once again. Taking this into account, it wouldn't be completely out of question we get 86%-87% turn-out.

Wow, that's impressive. High turnout is great news regardless of whom it benefits.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Never heard of the multiple paper ballots before, it would be very controversial to use that system here where the secrecy of the ballot is sacrosanct.

Exactly. At the last Swedish election, the leading Danish electoral professor, Jørgen Elklit, wrote an article where he said that the Swedish elections could not be characterized as "free and fair" due to the multiple ballot thing, and that party representatives can be present at the polls and hand out ballot papers to the voters. The last problem is amplified by the fact that the election districts in Sweden are generally quite small in terms of population.
He sent the article to the four main Swedish newspapers, but none of them wanted to bring it, so it was only published in Denmark.
Several Danish politicians called for electoral observers from the EU or the OSCE, but I don't think these hopes were materialized.

Oh come on, that's ridiculous. Ballot secrecy is absolutely respected as long as voters have the possibility to keep their vote secret. If someone wants to make their vote known, I don't see what's the problem. As for the presence of party officials to oversee the voting process (provided, as I assume, that officials from all parties are present) this is actually a further guarantee of fairness.

Danes being trolls, as usual.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, there is no feasible way in the modern word to force ballot secrecy anymore. So details matter little, especially in a country with a deep-rooted democratic culture like Sweden.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout is so huge that they need to extend voting time by 1 hour and a half? Does that mean it's going to be near 90%?

[Antonio the Sixth]

When will we get official turnout figures? Are there no preliminary reports before 20?