Swiss Elections & Politics (Next election 2019)

[ZuWo]

The left-leaning Tagesanzeiger has published a (IMO) hilarous and brutal caricature of the birth-control-in-third-world-countries clause:



text on the left: "For free: 1 Swiss Cheese Fondue for each sterilization performed"

text on the right: "What's that?" - "Environmental protection by Ecopop"

http://files.newsnetz.ch/bildlegende/20708/2070255_pic_970x641.jpg

[ZuWo]

Remark to "Thomas in NJ": And additionally, in referenda the support is generally declining during the campaigns.

Indeed, the "Save our Gold" initiative is a prime example of that. At first, initiatives with such appealing names sound attractive to many voters but as the issue gets debated more thoroughly, the no-campaigns usually manage to point out all the risks and downsides. Since the average Swiss is a careful person by nature, this typically results in a clear rejection of the vast majority of constitutional initiatives.

The "Save our Gold" initiative has three main goals: Firstly, the Swiss National Bank shall be required to increase its gold reserves to 20%. Also, the National Bank shall no longer be allowed to sell its gold. And finally, the gold reserves in their entirety should be stored in Switzerland. Currently, about 10% of the Swiss gold is stored in England and 20% in Canada. Interestingly, Ron Paul has expressed his tentative support for the Swiss proposal.
    

[ZuWo]

Remark to "Thomas in NJ": And additionally, in referenda the support is generally declining during the campaigns.

Indeed, the "Save our Gold" initiative is a prime example of that. At first, initiatives with such appealing names sound attractive to many voters but as the issue gets debated more thoroughly, the no-campaigns usually manage to point out all the risks and downsides. Since the average Swiss is a careful person by nature, this typically results in a clear rejection of the vast majority of constitutional initiatives.

The "Save our Gold" initiative has three main goals: Firstly, the Swiss National Bank shall be required to increase its gold reserves to 20%. Also, the National Bank shall no longer be allowed to sell its gold. And finally, the gold reserves in their entirety should be stored in Switzerland. Currently, about 10% of the Swiss gold is stored in England and 20% in Canada. Interestingly, Ron Paul has expressed his tentative support for the Swiss proposal.
    

Do you personally support or oppose the proposal?

I'm undecided. I don't buy into that conspiracy theorist mindset that is unfortunately widespread among proponents of the proposal. Additionally, I'd prefer the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to remain politically independent so I'm wary of voting for burdening the central bank with further constitutional constraints.

On the other hand, gold only makes up about 8% of the assets of the SNB while the gold share in neighboring countries is a lot higher. The SNB has invested heavily in foreign currencies during the last years in order to prevent the Swiss franc from getting even stronger as this would be detrimental to the Swiss export and tourism industries. Thus, it is stuck with a very high share of foreign money, especially euros. Indeed, some analysts consider this a risky strategy in the long run.

[ZuWo]

The polls have closed and the first municipal results are in. The statistical department of Zurich has also published its first projection on the three federal referenda which are voted on today:

1. Abolition of lump-sum taxes:

49.2% YES, 50.8% NO (too close to call)

2. Ecopop initiative:

23.4% YES, 76.6% NO

3. Gold initiative:

19.8% YES, 80.2% NO

[ZuWo]

All results are in.

Abolition of the lump-sum-tax initiative:

1,052,955 YES (40,8%) - 1,527,908 NO (59,2%)
1 canton (Schaffhausen) YES - 22 cantons NO

Ecopop initiative:

671,347 YES (25,9%) - 1,919,984 NO (74,1%)
0 cantons YES - 23 cantons NO

Gold initiative:

580,815 YES (22,7%) - 1,973,558 NO (77,3%)
0 cantons YES - 23 cantons NO

Results with maps:

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/multimedia/all-vote-results--november-30/41134608

[ZuWo]

Every Swiss citizen receives his or her ballot by mail one month before a referendum or election so that happens at least four times a year. There is no way of opting out. If you don't want to participate in a referendum or election, you don't have to - unless you live in the canton of Schaffhausen, where voting is mandatory.

As for Ticino, the right-wing shift on the issue of immigration can be explained by two closely intertwined factors, namely the free-movement of persons agreement between Switzerland and the European Union and Italy's high jobless rate. Obviously it is very appealing for well-educated but unemployed Italians to try to look for a job (not far away from home, same language, higher wages). And the increasing competition on the job market makes it harder for people of Ticinese origin to find work.

[ZuWo]

Simonetta Sommaruga (SP) is going to be President of the Swiss Confederation in 2015. Memers of both chambers of the Swiss parliament elected her with 181 out of potential 246 votes today, which is a pretty good result.

Sommaruga will succeed Didier Burkhalter (FDP), whose tenure has been overshadowed by the domestic debate on the future of Switzerland's role in Europe as well as the Ukraine conflict. Indeed, Switzerland happened to head the OSCE this year so Burkhalter spent a lot of time traveling to Kiev and trying to arbitrate between the Ukraine and Russia.

[ZuWo]

The figures aren't brand new but since pre-election polls in Switzerland are so rare I will post them anyway:

Institut Léger (December 2014)

SVP: 23.8%
SP: 19.8%
FDP: 15.7%
CVP: 12.4%
GP: 8.2%
GLP: 7.4%
BDP: 7.2%
EVP: 1.8%
EDU: 0.9%
other: 2.7%

http://www.leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/Léger%20POLITbarometer%20Dez14.pdf

gfs.bern (October 2014)

SVP: 24.6%
SP: 20.1%
FDP: 15.8%
CVP: 11.2%
GP: 7.3%
GLP: 7.3%
BDP: 4.6%
EVP: 1.8%
EDU: 1.4%
Lega: 1%
other: 4.7%

http://www.blick.ch/news/politik/wahl-barometer-2015-svp-droht-die-naechste-schlappe-id3172680.html

For reference, the results of the 2011 elections can be found here.

[ZuWo]

Is Léger is polling often in Switzerland? I mean, it's a Québec-based pollster! Did they bought a local pollster?

Léger in Switzerland is basically the former Isopublic company. Isopublic used to be the oldest Swiss polling firm and joined the Canadian Léger group in 2011. They still did many polls with their old name in the last three years but now they have apparently completely switched to the Léger brand.

[ZuWo]

I sure wish that EDU percentage was higher!

The SVP is alright, though.

The two EDU strongholds are Bern and Zurich, where the party holds a decent number of seats in the respective cantonal parliaments. However, the party is currently without representation at the federal level and it would surprise me if that were to change in October.

As for the election to the Federal Council it seems increasingly likely that Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf (BDP) is going to run for a third term. Unless both the SVP and FDP gain seats and the conservative wing of the CVP is strengthened she will be safe. Thus, if the SVP finally want their second seat back they will have to attack one of the sitting FDP incumbents (probably Johann Schneider-Ammann because Didier Burkhalter is way too popular), a scenario SVP leaders have consistently ruled out so far.

[ZuWo]

Today's announcement of the National Bank of Switzerland (SNB) to end its efforts to stabilize the exchange rate between the Euro and the Swiss Franc at a ratio of 1 to 1.20 has sent shockwaves through the country. The Swiss stock market (SMI) has plummeted and fell by about 10%, and both the Euro and the US Dollar have lost a considerable share of their value in relation to the Swiss Franc; 1 Euro now has the value of approximately 1 Swiss Franc, and 1 Dollar is worth just 88 Rappen.

The SNB implemented their policy to stabilize the Euro-Swiss Franc exchange rate in 2011 in order to save the Swiss export industry from becoming uncompetitive in the European markets. It was clear that the measure would have to be lifted at some point but today's move by the SNB caught everyone by surprise. Analysts now fear that Switzerland's growth will suffer as a consequence of todays' decision or that we could even experience a recession in the short term.

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss-national-bank-scraps-exchange-rate-ceiling/41217364

[ZuWo]

The only bright spot about today's news from a consumer perspective is that it makes it a lot more attractive to buy euros. Indeed, that's what I actually wanted to do later today or tomorrow but according to the latest news a few banks have already started to make it impossible - at least temporarily - to withdraw euros from their cash machines.

[ZuWo]

I wonder how this will affect the election.

I guess that's impossible to say at this point. The SNB is politically independent. While its headquarter is literally next door to the Bundeshaus (Federal Palace) no one, not even high-ranking members of the Swiss government, knew of the SNB's decsion in advance. That's why it's going to be hard for any party to put a particular political spin on yesterday's events.
Also, since it could take a while until all of this has a tangible impact on the economy the October election may actually be too early to judge.

On a positive note, it's now possible again to get euros from all cash machines. However, some shops are currently refusing to accept euros.

[ZuWo]

Looking at the way political processes work it would be a stretch to say there's going to be a referendum on gay marriage soon, it's probably going to be a matter of a few years. I guess both chambers of parliament will approve of the proposal, though the yes majority in the Council of States can be expected to be a lot smaller since the less populated and more conservative cantons have more seats there compared to the National Council. After that, certain groups within the SVP, CVP as well as the smaller conservative parties will likely gather signatures to get a federal referendum on the issue.

Civil unions for homosexual couple have already been in place for ten years and as most surveys are showing the idea that two men or two women should be able to enter a relationship recognized by the state is not controversial. The question whether or not they should also be allowed to adopt children is much more disputed, however, and since the issues of gay marriage and adoption rights are closely related the outcome of the potential referendum might be closer than the polls seem to be suggesting at this point.

[ZuWo]

Zurich, the largest Swiss canton with nearly 1.5 million inhabitants and therefore a good indicator of national trends, elected a new parliament (Kantonsrat) and government (Regierungsrat) yesterday. The outcome of the elections can only be described as a triumphant resurrection of the FDP and a disaster for the green movement.

Kantonsrat (legislative body, 180 seats)

SVP - 30% (2011: 29.6%), 54 seats (2011: 54)
SP - 19.7% (19.3%), 36 (35)
FDP - 17.3% (12.9%), 31 (23)
GLP - 7.6% (10.3%), 14 (19)
GP - 7.2% (10.6%), 13 (19)
CVP - 4.9% (4.9%), 9 (9)
EVP - 4.3% (3.8%), 8 (7)
AL - 3% (1.6%), 5 (3)
EDU - 2.7% (2.6%), 5 (5)
BDP - 2.6% (3.5%), 5 (6)

Balance of power

The right (SVP, FDP, EDU): 50% (45%), 90 (82)

The center (CVP, BDP, GLP, EVP): 19.4% (22.4%), 36 (41)

The left (SP, GP, AL): 29.9% (31.5%), 54 (57)


Regierungsrat (executive body, 7 members)  

Thomas Heiniger (FDP - incumbent), 150'557 votes (ELECTED)
Mario Fehr (SP - incumbent), 146'307 (ELECTED)
Ernst Stocker (SVP - incumbent), 145'205 (ELECTED)
Markus Kägi (SVP - incumbent), 136'563 (ELECTED)
Silvia Steiner (CVP), 118'477 (ELECTED)
Carmen Walker Späh (FDP), 116'058 (ELECTED)
Jacqueline Fehr (SP), 115'618 (ELECTED)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Martin Graf (GP - incumbent), 109'625 (not re-elected)
etc.

Balance of power

The right (SVP, FDP): 4 seats (2011: 4)

The center (CVP): 1 (0)

The left (SP, GP): 2 (3)

Overall turnout: 32.7% (Kantonsrat), 31.3% (Regierungsrat)

http://www.statistik.zh.ch/internet/justiz_inneres/statistik/de/wahlen_abstimmungen/wahlen_2015.html

[ZuWo]

Indeed, I was just going to make a new post.

The people of Ticino elect 5 members of the Consiglio di Stato (executive branch of government) as well as 90 members of the Gran Consiglio (parliament) today.

Also, there are municipial elections in 45 communes in Geneva.

Both cantons stand out because there are major right-wing and economically populist parties that are actually more powerful than the Swiss People's Party (SVP). In Ticino the Lega die Ticinesi has a voter share of 23% while the SVP is a minor party with just 5.5%. In Geneva, the Mouvement citoyens genevois received almost 20% of the votes at the most recent cantonal elections in 2013 and the SVP only a little over 10.
Both Ticino and Geneva are considerably more left-wing on economic issues than Switzerland as a whole. At the same time, there is a non-negligible number of anti-immigration voters in both cantons.

http://www3.ti.ch/elezioni/Cantonali2015/

https://www.ge.ch/elections/20150419/

[ZuWo]

    I'm surprised that SVP is even really active in Ticino and Geneva, considering that I would think of it as a Swiss German movement. Is that not how it is perceived in Switzerland?

The main SVP strongholds are obviously in the rural and suburban areas of German-speaking Switzerland and nearly all of the party's leading politicians at the federal level are Swiss German. However, the Swiss People's Party, which is called Union démocratique du centre (UDC) in the French-speaking cantons, has been growing in the rest of Switzerland as well. In fact, the UDC received between 15% and 23% of the vote in every canton of Western Switzerland at the last federal election in 2011. Indeed, the political priorities of the party, i.e. a strong focus on national sovereignty and reduced immigration, are considered important issues by many people in the entire country.

As for the elections in Ticino things have remained remarkably stable. The executive branch still consists of two Lega members and one FDP, SP and CVP officeholder each.

The composition of the cantonal parliament hasn't changed a lot, either:

FDP - 26.3% (+1.6%), 24 seats (+1)
Lega - 24.2% (+1.4%), 22 (+1)
CVP - 18.6% (-1.9%), 17 (-2)
SP - 14.6% (-0.5%), 13 (-1)
GP - 6% (-1.6%), 6 (-1)
SVP - 5.8% (+0.3%), 5 (0)
Communist Party - 1.5% (+0.2%), 2 (+1)
Mountain Party - 1.2% (+0.4%), 1 (+1)

[ZuWo]

With merely one month to go until election day the parties are gearing up for the final stretch of the campaign. Unfortunately, voting intention polls are notoriously rare in Switzerland but two of them have been published during the last weeks. The most recent poll published by the newspaper 20 Minuten indicates that the "right" (a term often used for the SVP and FDP) is going to make gains at the expense of the center and the left:




Likewise, a previously conducted survey by gfs.bern, which was released by the Swiss broadcaster SRF, shows gains for both the SVP and FDP. In contrast to the 20-Minuten poll, however, seems to be on the rise as well.

 

[ZuWo]

(I will respond to the questions raised and points made above later but from what I have seen what has been written seems fairly accurate.)

Tagesanzeiger has published a "state poll" for the canton of Zurich that was conducted by the same company which is also responsible for the 20 Minuten poll, Sotomo.

The focus of the poll was on the Ständeratswahl (roughly the equivalent of the US Senate) and shows that the one seat formerly held by a GLP incumbent might switch to the Social Democrats while the FDP could retain its seat:
 


It's a three-horse race, though, as the SVP candidate still has a shot as well. Vogt is a highly unusual SVP candidate because he comes across as a moderate, is an academic (professor of law), lives in the left-liberal city of Zurich and is openly homosexual. His name recognition is quite low at this point, but the SVP hopes to attract new segments of the electorate thanks to his candidacy.

Jositsch's lead can be explained both by the SP-candidate's perceived moderation and enormous name recognition. As yet another professor of law and as someone who has been in politics for many years he's had a high number of TV and other media appearances. He's generally seen as representing the right-wing of the Social Democrats, not only when it comes to law-and-order issues but also on fiscal policy.

The FDP has traditionally held one of the two seats so Noser's good showing is not surprising. FDP candidates typically attract voters from both the right and the left, and Noser, who emphasizes business-friendly as well as socially liberal views, does a decent job in this respect. It also helps that Noser is well-known in Zurich.

[ZuWo]

The Tagesanzeiger poll also contains voting intention figures regarding the Nationalratswahl (National Council) which basically mirror the trends outlined by the previously mentioned federal poll:

[ZuWo]

Time for my obligatory immigration related election question.  Have the parties come up with very pronounced stances about taking any migrants?  Not being in the EU gives the Swiss some cover to avoid the issue perhaps?  

Switzerland is in the center of Europe and directly affected by the current mass movement of refugees so there's no way for the parties to avoid the issue.

In fact, Switzerland is doing quite a lot to mitigate the effects of the refugee crisis. The Federal Council has just decided to spend 70 million Swiss Francs in direct humanitarian aid in Syria and its neighboring countries on top of the 200 million which have already been spent during the last four years. Additionally, millions of Swiss Francs have been collected by charity organizations within a time span of just the last few days.
Refugees have been received since the beginning of the current crisis and the federal government has made clear that Switzerland will participate in a future distribution system which will be agreed upon by the member states of the European Union. The figure that has been floated so far is 4% -  this means that Switzerland is ready to take in 4% of all Syrian, Iraqi etc. refugees coming to Europe.

Of course, the views of the parties differ. While there is general consensus that refugees fleeing from war and terror should be received at all costs, there is a sense of uneasiness when it comes to taking in a huge number of migrants who have come to Europe for economic reasons. Several parties, not just the SVP but also the FDP and CVP as the two most notable examples, are calling for a tougher stance on the latter group of migrants.

[ZuWo]

Sorry for not having posted in this thead for ages. I've been terribly busy lately and been counting votes from yesterday to this afternoon.

Anyway, Tender's right: The right (SVP and FDP) are poised to win in a landslide ("landslide" in Swiss Terms, for what it's worth).

In the Nationalrat, the SVP is expected to gain around 10 seats according to the results that have come in so far. The FDP is going to win a handful as well.

The losers of the election are the Greens, the Green-Liberals and the centrist parties CVP and BDP. The SP is going to remain stable.

It's too early to say what the composition of the Ständerat is going to be like because there will be runoff elections in many cantons.

For an overview of the results, have a look at this website:

https://www.ch.ch/en/elections2015/

[ZuWo]

I haven't found an exit poll yet. Do you have one?

The first (and only) federal exit poll will be released by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (tv channel SRF 1) at 7pm.

[ZuWo]

Terrible news of the Social Democrats: The leader of their parliamentary group (Andy Tschümperlin, Schwyz) has apparently lost his seat. It's another SVP gain.

[ZuWo]

The first (and only) federal exit poll will be released by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (tv channel SRF 1) at 7pm.

Ah, okay, thanks for clearing that up. Tender spoke about exit polls indicating a rightward shift, that's why I asked.

I guess Tender referred to cantonal exit polls, which have been published since the early afternoon. They can be seen here:

http://www.teletext.ch/SRF1/725