Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, Whitby is fairly homogenous. It's not like there's any strong Liberal areas waiting to be counted.

[Hatman 🍁]

Libs need to win this riding to form a majority in 2014. Not good news if they lose.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think this thing's over. Forum Research done f**ked up again.

Libs need to win this riding to form a majority in 2014. Not good news if they lose.

But this is only a by election, with probably a depressed turnout

The Liberal spin machine has arrived!

Good job, CBC. You really had to try with that one.

Frankly professionalism was the only thing preventing them from declaring a Tory hold when the writ was dropped.

Why stop there? Why not call it as soon as it became vacant? Or after the last election? Or in perpetuity?

[Hatman 🍁]

I admit it may be possible that Whitby-Oshawa has somehow eschewed the rest of the 905 and has become some sort of outlier Tory riding. I mean, it did buck the trend in the provincial election, but I thought there were other factors at play there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow @ the turnout in Yellowhead. Almost as bad as the 15.4% in the Fort McMurray-Athabasca by-election (which was held the day before Canada Day in a riding that had the worst turnout in 2011). I suppose the closeness of the Fort McMurray race kept it from going even lower.

I think a lot of Conservatives in Alberta are upset with the Harper government and are staying home in droves with these by-elections. The Macleod by-election had low turnout too at 20%. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting that the NDP is "trying" in a riding they finished 3rd in. Fool's gold for sure.

The Liberals will win both ridings, of course. There's been so many by-elections in Newfoundland recently, and the Liberals have won all of them (most of them gains as well). Plus, they've had a lot of floor crossings. If the last election was anything resembling a close one, the Tories would have a minority by now.

The big question is, which ridings will the Liberals not win in the general? I'm guessing Lorraine Michaels is safe, and Paul Davis will probably win his seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

This will be a big test Horwath. If we lose Sudbury, then perhaps she might consider resigning.

The whole Saint John East fiasco shows us that voters are willing to punish the party of the candidate who quit too early.

[Hatman 🍁]

Profiles on today's by-elections in Newfoundland: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/11/provincial-by-elections-today-in.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals leading in both by-elections so far. Race to watch will be Humber East IMO.

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprise, surprise. Liberals win both by-elections with massive swings:

Trinity-Bay de Verde:

Lib: 3074 (65.5, +41.6)
PC: 1363 (29.1, -32.9)
NDP: 254 (5.4, -8.7)

2 party swing: 37.2% (PC to Lib)


Humber East

Lib: 2263 (56.1, +47.7)
PC: 1454 (36.1, -42.2)
NDP: 315 (7.8, -5.5)

2 party swing: 44.9 (PC to Lib)

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks for repeating me, MaxQue, you must have me on ignore

2-party PC to Lib swings in recent by-elections in Newfyland:

Carbonear-Harbour Grace (Nov 2013): 34.9%
Virginia Waters (Apr 2014): 25.7%
St. George's-Stephenville East (Aug 2014): 25.2%
Conception Bay South (Sept 2014): 32.1%
Trinity-Bay de Verde (Tonight): 37.2%
Humber East: (Tonight) 44.9%

Looks like it's getting worse for the Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

Humber East had the highest PC vote in the last election, so if that swing happened across the province, the Tories would be wiped out. It wouldn't be a Campbelling, it would be a McKennaning.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I think there are probably a few popular Tory incumbents that will hang on. The thing about these by-elections are, there are no incumbents.

Humber East may have been the best riding for the Tories in 2011, but I wouldn't call it a safe Tory seat. Obviously Marshall had some personal strength. But, every single poll went Liberal there in the federal election. I'm thinking a riding like Ferryland will be a little more impenetrable.

[Hatman 🍁]

Trudeaumania?

[Hatman 🍁]

Good news for the NDP, because they need a scandal if they're going to hold the seat. Even better news for Andrea Horwath, because a loss would be a huge blow for her leadership.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow... I guess he figures he has a better chance of winning a by-election after this Liberal scandal than holding on to his seat in the federal election.

ETA: Holy f*** he switched parties???

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually, there have been a few provincial polls from forum in November.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/ON%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2014%2011%2029)%20Forum%20Research.pdf
37% OLP (-3% from last poll)
37% PC (+2%)
17% NDP (-2%)
7% Green
Not good news for the NDP, but take it with a grain of salt as this is province-wide, Forum underestimated the NDP in June, and we don't have any other pollsters to confirm. Nonetheless 308 has moved Subdury to "Likely Liberal" based on the liberal strength in the Forum polls, and maybe Thibeault's candidacy.

Remember that 308 is a terrible projector, especially with by-elections. Has he even got any of the Newfoundland by-elections correct?

[Hatman 🍁]

Rather disappointing, but it's at least close. The NDP will need to pick someone with name recognition. Maybe John Rodriguez?