Pennsylvania 2012: Casey's Challenge

[Keystone Phil]

The latest Quinnipiac poll: Casey's approval rating is at 48% and disapproval is at 29%. 47% say that he deserves to be re-elected while 33% say he doesn't. 47% would vote for Casey compared to 35% that would vote for a generic Republican.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1630


This just confirms that we'll need a very weak Obama to have a chance at winning here and even then it's probably unlikely (especially since numbers like these will continue to keep major candidates out of the race). 

I would say unless you guys can get Tom Ridge, there's virtually no shot.  Rohrer has no shot at the Philadelphia suburbs.

Rohrer isn't even necessarily running.

Saying there is virtually no shot isn't wise at all. Nobodies have been able to taken down the supposedly mighty "unbeatable" before when the environment is right. I just don't think it's likely.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, this could be serious - former Congressional candidate and businessman Steve Welch might run against Casey - http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0811/Is_Casey_closer_to_a_serious_challenger.html

I've been critical of the guy in the past. This was the guy that was initially running for Congress in the 7th Congressional district then got out when Pat Meehan got in. He decided to run in the 6th (which was, at the time, an open seat because Gerlach was running for Governor) but dropped out again when Gerlach returned. Stuff like that didn't help him with politicos around here but he does have a great resume and would certainly be the strongest possible challenger out of the current group.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

What about Tom Ridge?

[Keystone Phil]

What about Tom Ridge?

He won't do it. He apparently doesn't have the desire to serve in the Senate. I think Welch or Loiselle (known for starting a medical technology business) are very likely to be the most credible candidates we will find for 2012.

[Gravis Marketing]

How about Dino Rossi?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Does anyone see this race becoming competitive besides Phil?

[J. J.]

It is probably the least likely of the competitive races.  Casey is one of those races where, it there is a widespread collapse in the Democrats, it becomes competitive.  2010 was not strong enough.

[Keystone Phil]

Does anyone see this race becoming competitive besides Phil?

Ok, I never said anything about the race becoming competitive. Take the trolling elsewhere. Thanks.

It is probably the least likely of the competitive races.  Casey is one of those races where, it there is a widespread collapse in the Democrats, it becomes competitive.  2010 was not strong enough.

Yeah, exactly. Pretty much what I've been saying throughout the thread yet I apparently see it becoming competitive according to some joke posters. 

[Keystone Phil]

Another more serious challenger could be emerging and it's another former (2010) Congressional candidate and businessman: Tim Burns from PA 12 - http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/08/tim-burns-met-w.php

Strangely enough, I did think of him as a candidate not too long ago but after two tough loses to Critz (the General being closer than expected. Only a 51% to 59% loss), I figured he was done with politics and wouldn't even consider it. I'm glad he sat down with the NRSC.

[CultureKing]

So Burns wants to become the new Dino Rossi?

[Keystone Phil]

So Burns wants to become the new Dino Rossi?

No, no. Burns lost fair and square in his first race.

[Keystone Phil]

Congressman Tim Murphy won't run - http://www.observer-reporter.com/or/story11/08-31-2011-tim-murphy-visit


In other news, I've heard from a close source that former State Representative and 2010 Gubernatorial candidate Sam Rohrer will be announcing his candidacy within a few weeks. He's far more well known across the state when compared to the rest of the field so he'll be the frontrunner. I'm also hearing that Tim Burns (the guy I want to run) is preparing for a run as well.

With so many candidates appealing to conservative voters, the thought is that a decent path to the nomination is emerging for former Congressional candidate Steve Welch (who is more moderate when compared to the rest of the field). The rest of the field consists of a former Santorum staffer, a Tea Party leader, a retired coal mining company owner, a well known former State Representative (Rohrer), a business consultant/former Congressional candidate from the 1980s and a distinguished Army veteran. Burns, who isn't yet in the race, would further split the vote. That definitely could be enough for Welch.

Fun fact about Welch and Burns: both were Congressional candidates in 2010 and both are biotech executives.

[Senator Snowstalker]

If Santorum drops out early enough (after Iowa), a rematch would be interesting.

[Keystone Phil]

If Santorum drops out early enough (after Iowa), a rematch would be interesting.

Iowa is late this year and since our primary is earlier in Presidential election years, the filing deadline is earlier. I don't know if he'd make it.

[Keystone Phil]

Welch has confirmed that he's running and has already assembled an all star team: former Santorum strategist and political consultant John Brabender and former Corbett Campaign Manager Brian Nutt. Toomey's 2010 Field Director and Pawlenty for President staffer (a friend of mine) is also joining them. He's going to have more difficulty winning over the base but with all of the others running, it might not be too much of an issue.

[J. J.]

I basically list Casey as the 14th seat.  There would be about 13 others to go before he loses.

[Keystone Phil]

By the way, Brabender being on board with Welch is the sign that Santorum doesn't intend to leave the Presidential race to set up a rematch with Casey.

[Keystone Phil]

He'd be giving up a seat that he'd likely win re-election to for a tougher challenge but the risk might pay off - http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2011/09/16/news/doc4e72bc962d92c253852817.txt?viewmode=fullstory


I'd certainly be on board.

[Landslide Lyndon]

He'd be giving up a seat that he'd likely win re-election to for a tougher challenge but the risk might pay off - http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2011/09/16/news/doc4e72bc962d92c253852817.txt?viewmode=fullstory

Maybe, but he'll make the life far easier for the map-drawers and his colleagues.

[Keystone Phil]

At this weekend's PA GOP State Committee meeting, Burns said that he's serious about a Senate run and that a decision should be reached by the end of this month - http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-burns-likely-to-run-for-u-s-senate/27874/

Unless Meehan runs, Burns is my choice.


In other news, Scranton Tea Party leader Laureen Cummings announced her candidacy today.

[Jayhawker]

At this weekend's PA GOP State Committee meeting, Burns said that he's serious about a Senate run and that a decision should be reached by the end of this month - http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-burns-likely-to-run-for-u-s-senate/27874/

Unless Meehan runs, Burns is my choice.


In other news, Scranton Tea Party leader Laureen Cummings announced her candidacy today.

http://yrnetwork.com/websites/default.aspx?id=3145

Endorsed. It'll be tough, but she can certainly pull this off.

[Keystone Phil]

At this weekend's PA GOP State Committee meeting, Burns said that he's serious about a Senate run and that a decision should be reached by the end of this month - http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-burns-likely-to-run-for-u-s-senate/27874/

Unless Meehan runs, Burns is my choice.


In other news, Scranton Tea Party leader Laureen Cummings announced her candidacy today.

http://yrnetwork.com/websites/default.aspx?id=3145

Endorsed. It'll be tough, but she can certainly pull this off.

Uh, you certainly wouldn't be endorsing her. Believe me. Though I'm guessing you know that with your wink. There's a reason why I don't have much to say about her here.

[Jayhawker]

At this weekend's PA GOP State Committee meeting, Burns said that he's serious about a Senate run and that a decision should be reached by the end of this month - http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-burns-likely-to-run-for-u-s-senate/27874/

Unless Meehan runs, Burns is my choice.


In other news, Scranton Tea Party leader Laureen Cummings announced her candidacy today.

http://yrnetwork.com/websites/default.aspx?id=3145

Endorsed. It'll be tough, but she can certainly pull this off.

Uh, you certainly wouldn't be endorsing her. Believe me. Though I'm guessing you know that with your wink. There's a reason why I don't have much to say about her here.

Look on my Facebook profile for a good laugh, Phil. I almost died when I saw it.

Let's just say, I got contacted be a Senatorial candidate.

[Keystone Phil]

Look on my Facebook profile for a good laugh, Phil. I almost died when I saw it.

Let's just say, I got contacted be a Senatorial candidate.

Uh, wow. Wow. I have a friend that is fairly good friends with her, too.

Anyway, here's a good article from Politico talking about how crowded the field is and how it might lead to a nasty battle between the Tea Party and establishment factions - http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=BB71EF86-078F-4970-9185-E4F796DDEB95


In a weird way, I'm a mix of both (certainly not "establishment" in the sense that I'm an old school, smoke filled room type or a RINO). I think Burns is the closest thing to that, too. Everyone else seems solidly in one of the other two camps.

[Keystone Phil]

Steve Welch teases that he has an important announcement on Facebook within the next 24 hours. He'll almost certainly be entering the race.