Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks for the answers. One other question just for fun: which politician/party is equivalent to Sanders/Paul? (i.e. They have a lot of young, loud supporters and do much better on the internet than in real life?)

In the last year the Social Democrats have sort of fit into that pattern.

I think SF fit that better actually since the Social Democrats actually did do very well whereas SF kind of deflated in the last few months.

I support the Social Democrats and would have voted for them, but even with low expectations I wouldn't call getting 3% and 3 seats "doing very well".

[Јas]

Thanks for the answers. One other question just for fun: which politician/party is equivalent to Sanders/Paul? (i.e. They have a lot of young, loud supporters and do much better on the internet than in real life?)

In the last year the Social Democrats have sort of fit into that pattern.

I think SF fit that better actually since the Social Democrats actually did do very well whereas SF kind of deflated in the last few months.

I support the Social Democrats and would have voted for them, but even with low expectations I wouldn't call getting 3% and 3 seats "doing very well".

Welcome to the world of the Irish left.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Thanks for the answers. One other question just for fun: which politician/party is equivalent to Sanders/Paul? (i.e. They have a lot of young, loud supporters and do much better on the internet than in real life?)

In the last year the Social Democrats have sort of fit into that pattern.

I think SF fit that better actually since the Social Democrats actually did do very well whereas SF kind of deflated in the last few months.

I support the Social Democrats and would have voted for them, but even with low expectations I wouldn't call getting 3% and 3 seats "doing very well".

They did well considering they were formed literally months before the election and apart from their incumbents mostly ran people that nobody had ever heard of. Compare to another party which tried to that, Renua (and they were formed earlier) with its zero seats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well yeah, Renua's obliteration is one of the few silver linings of this election.

If this is a good result for them, do you think Social Democrats might have room to grow in the future? Could they establish a durable presence in Irish politics?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Dublin Bay North - 4 seats still to be filled

[DavidB.]

Dublin Bay North - 4 seats still to be filled

It seems O Riordain is going to be re-elected, after all.

[RodPresident]

Dublin Bay North - 4 seats still to be filled

It seems O Riordain is going to be re-elected, after all.

I don't say that. O'Callaghan transfers will be going to Broughan and McGrath. Then Ó Riordain can end being eliminated by next rounds. But this race will end on recount...

[ObserverIE]

Longford-Westmeath, 4 seater, quota 11056, count 11

Troy (FF) elected
Moran (Ind Alliance) 9244
Burke (FG) 7251
Hogan (SF) 6110
Penrose (Lab) 6041
Bannon (FG) 5436
Gerety-Quinn (FF) 4764
Morgan (Ind Alliance) 4339 and out

Does Penrose have a chance here?

Count 12

Moran 10108
Burke 7633
Hogan 6643
Penrose 6360
Bannon 5955
Gerety-Quinn 5917 and out

Another close elimination, so possibly another recount.

*waves hello*

There is a complete recheck of papers going on.

There was briefly a rumour at the count that Morgan's votes had put Gerety-Quinn ahead of Bannon (there is a very strong Anyone But Bannon sentiment in Longford). It seems to have been a case of a couple of bundles of 50s initially being counted twice and the mistake then being noticed and corrected before the result was officially announced. However, FF have called for a recount as a result.

The counting operation in Longford tends to be very meticulous and very slow (in the 2014 local elections the count started at 9am but the first official result was not declared until 11.45pm; however a recount over 3 votes on the Sunday night took up most of Monday but didn't uncover a single error in the count process). The 38-vote margin is highly unlikely to change.

At that point Gerety-Quinn (Longford FF candidate) will go out. I was looking at her papers yesterday for second preferences and my impressions were:

1. There are a lot of "plumpers" (1, 2 FF and stop)
2. Hogan and Penrose are roughly equal in terms of preferences, but both seemed to be ahead of Bannon (note the ABB sentiment mentioned above).

(One caveat on the above is that transfers to Gerety from Sexton and Morgan aren't included in that observation.)

At that point, if Bannon is unable to close the gap with Penrose and/or Hogan, then he goes out. A lot of his preferences will go to Burke (the Mullingar-based FG candidate) but Burke is 3,800 short of the quota so it's likely that those votes will not transfer any further or will at best constitute a small surplus. The question is whether enough Bannon transfers will prefer Penrose ahead of their own fellow FG candidate to close the gap between Penrose and Hogan. We may well be looking at a second recount for the last seat.

We could be still at this on Tuesday.

[YL]

Sligo-Leitrim, 4 seater, quota 12468, count 13

Kenny (SF) 14066 and elected
MacSharry (FF) 13227 and elected
McLoughlin (FG) 10529
Reynolds (FG) 10177
Scanlon (FF) 9554

The top two both have surpluses to transfer, which might well give Scanlon the advantage.

Kenny's surplus has transferred, and Scanlon is now 131 behind, with MacSharry's surplus (759) still to transfer.  MacSharry's surplus came from the elimination of another FF candidate.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Scanlon overtook Reynolds for the final seat in Sligo-Leitrim.

Dublin Bay North will recount tomorrow.  After the SD elimination Averil Power (Ind) is reportedly 67 votes behind Tommy Broughan (Ind) and 93 votes behind John Lyons (Alphabet Left).

[ObserverIE]

Scanlon overtook Reynolds for the final seat in Sligo-Leitrim.

Dublin Bay North will recount tomorrow.  After the SD elimination Averil Power (Ind) is reportedly 67 votes behind Tommy Broughan (Ind) and 93 votes behind John Lyons (Alphabet Left).

Scanlon wins by 400.

Purgatory continues at Longford - a lot of shuffling papers to no effect.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I am great fan of the STV system but I noticed one major problem: it takes very long to count the votes and probably need a lot of people to work in electoral commissions for all that time. When last district will be counted?

[jaichind]

I am great fan of the STV system but I noticed one major problem: it takes very long to count the votes and probably need a lot of people to work in electoral commissions for all that time. When last district will be counted?

This whole process can and should be automated via computer software.  Last I checked Ireland still has a lot of IT resources.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I am great fan of the STV system but I noticed one major problem: it takes very long to count the votes and probably need a lot of people to work in electoral commissions for all that time. When last district will be counted?

This whole process can and should be automated via computer software.  Last I checked Ireland still has a lot of IT resources.

For me still electrification of both voting and counting (fortunately more common) process is still science fiction. Although there are examples of countries like Estonia I don't think that larger countries will be able to implement such systems.

[MaxQue]

Scotland has electronic counting of STV elections.

[DavidB.]

We used to have "voting computers" when I was young, until the government decided it was too risky regarding fraud.


I like voting with the pencil more, but then again, we don't have STV...

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Scotland has electronic counting of STV elections.

Thank you for the info.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

We tried to electronic voting before but, eh, it wasn't popular.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Does anybody have a blank constituency map?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The quick one I made is usable without modifications if you like.

[Famous Mortimer]

Goddamnit, Ireland. I don't give a crap about who was elected in Dublin Central South West. I want some goddaamned national party standings. How many seats has everyone got? How many are left to be counted?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If this is a good result for them, do you think Social Democrats might have room to grow in the future? Could they establish a durable presence in Irish politics?

Still interested in an answer on that.

[RodPresident]

Goddamnit, Ireland. I don't give a crap about who was elected in Dublin Central South West. I want some goddaamned national party standings. How many seats has everyone got? How many are left to be counted?

FG will get 49-50 at maximum, by now, while FF will get 44-45. SF can get 23-25. And Labor gan go to until 8 seats.

[ObserverIE]

Late night/early morning update from Longford-Westmeath:

The recheck discovered no significant errors (Gerety-Quinn may have made up 5 or 6 in total but it doesn't change the outcome). The count resumes at 3pm tomorrow.

The next question is whether Bannon (FG) can overhaul Penrose (Lab) on Gerety-Quinn's transfers and whether the winner of that contest will overhaul Hogan (SF). I would put the chances of the first happening as 60% based on a more thorough investigation of G-Q's transfers (about 22% Bannon, 16% Hogan, 11% Penrose) but it will be more difficult to achieve the second because both Bannon and Penrose will transfer much more to Burke (FG) who shares a party with Bannon and a home area with Penrose than to the other, but not enough to get Burke over the quota with a significant surplus if any. Bannon is likely to be more Penrose-friendly than vice versa but I think the gap between Hogan and the other finalist needs to be 350/400 or less for the other to win.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Does anybody have a blank constituency map?

Found this on AH.com