Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[Boston Bread]

Of all the provinces to have a NDP gain in votes, it was PEI (and Nunavut if you count territories). And Quebec is the one province to see a Conservative increase. Canada is odd sometimes.

[Hash]

Has anybody pointed out the MASSIVE victory for our girl RUTH ELLEN last night? God bless you, Quebec.

[Boston Bread]

... was Windsor the largest city that the NDP won? I came to the realization of how badly they took a beating in the urban centers. No seats in the largest city or its surroundings, nor Ottawa, none in Halifax, not even one Quebec City seat. Liberals swept Vancouver, Winnipeg, and Montreal. They didn't even win in Hamilton.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ruth Ellen Brosseau actually increased both her vote share and her majority.

[Holmes]

Ruth Ellen Broussard is straight up BALLIN'.

[platypeanArchcow]

... was Windsor the largest city that the NDP won? I came to the realization of how badly they took a beating in the urban centers. No seats in the largest city or its surroundings, nor Ottawa, none in Halifax, not even one Quebec City seat. Liberals swept Vancouver, Winnipeg, and Montreal. They didn't even win in Hamilton.

Victoria is a marginally larger metro.  But yeah, the NDP got totally creamed in urban Ontario.  As seems to be usual in Canada, different parts of the country swing in wildly different ways.  From my perch here in West End Toronto, I can see why the NDP lost: they failed to play up the issues that distinguish them from the Liberals or fire up their base voters.  My Canadian friends who could have been enthusiastic NDP voters or volunteers ended up in a ball of meh and some of them ended up voting for the Liberals themselves.  But why did this play out so differently in, say, BC?

[ObserverIE]

Ruth Ellen Brosseau actually increased both her vote share and her majority.

At a guess, she put in the work on the ground and made the effort locally (because she felt she needed to given the publicity at the last election) where a lot of her colleagues seemed to assume that the NDP brand would make up for lack of local organisation - there are quite a lot of Quebec OrangeCrushers in third or very distant second places in their ridings.

Unless someone knows better...

[Boston Bread]

Thanks to their margin in May's riding and 20-30% results in the other Victoria ridings, the Greens actually won the PV by 1 point in Victoria. Windsor would still be the largest city where the NDP won the PV.

http://enr.elections.ca/MajorCentres.aspx?lang=e

You can search for Victoria here.

[platypeanArchcow]

Ruth Ellen Brosseau actually increased both her vote share and her majority.

there are quite a lot of Quebec OrangeCrushers in third or very distant second places in their ridings.

My favorite of these results is in Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix (what a mouthful!) where the NDP incumbent actually ended in fourth with nearly 20% of the vote.

Thanks to their margin in May's riding and 20-30% results in the other Victoria ridings, the Greens actually won the PV by 1 point in Victoria.

Whoa! OK.

[Krago]

Of the 338 MPs in the next Parliament:
- 124 are incumbents
- 17 are former MPs
- 14 are former members of a provincial or territorial legislature
- 183 are newbies

Of the 247 MPs who ran for re-election, 124 (50.2%) were successful.

[Krago]

Of the nine closest contests where the NDP candidate placed first or second, they won all nine.

Candidate   Margin   Margin Pct
Daniel Blaikie   51   +0.1%
Georgina Jolibois   70   +0.2%
Erin Weir   143   +0.3%
Wayne Stetski   285   +0.5%
Karine Trudel   369   +0.8%
Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet   461   +0.9%
Brigitte Sansoucy   548   +1.01%
Kennedy Stewart   547   +1.2%
Pierre Nantel   703   +1.2%

[King of Kensington]

The Liberals did a much better Obama impression than the NDP ever could.

[Holmes]

Ruth Ellen Brosseau actually increased both her vote share and her majority.

At a guess, she put in the work on the ground and made the effort locally (because she felt she needed to given the publicity at the last election) where a lot of her colleagues seemed to assume that the NDP brand would make up for lack of local organisation - there are quite a lot of Quebec OrangeCrushers in third or very distant second places in their ridings.

Unless someone knows better...

No, you're pretty much right. Ruth Ellen put a lot of work in her riding, and the results spoke for themselves. Not that other New Democrats didn't, and some really did but it just wasn't the NDP's night in Quebec. Or Ontario. Or the Atlantic.

The NDP's LGBT representation in their caucus really took a hit last night. Same for their PoC MPs. I'm glad Anne Minh-Thu Quach won. She's a backbencher but she has talent and is no scrub. It's a shame Rathika Sitsabaiesan and Laurin Liu were swept up.

[Boston Bread]

I hear turnout by province is BC 70%, AB 69%, SK 72%, MB 69%, ON 68%, QC 66%, NB 75%, NS 71%, PEI 77%, NFL 61%, YK 76%, NU 62%, NWT 64%, CAN 68%

That would be impressive numbers in AB and ON, and rather poor turnout in Quebec. Maybe the Niqab served to depress NDP turnout more than convince NDPers to vote for someone else?

[RI]

[Tender Branson]

Alberta ...

[politicallefty]

If there's one area I think the NDP can some solace, it's that they held up pretty well in Western Canada. With it apparently being their best province this election, the NDP vote in BC seems to have gotten quite efficient (quite the opposite of the Tories). Even accounting for redistribution, they had a net gain of seats in the West. One of their problems though is that Alberta is basically a zero-sum game for the left. So long as a united Conservative Party is being led by an Albertan leader, there isn't much room in the province for both Liberal and NDP gains.

I'm sure I'm not the first to notice it, but this election seems to be a bit of cycle in terms of both popular vote and seat count where third is now first, first is now second, and second is now third in almost the same proportions.

Alberta ...

It really does stick out like a sore thumb. But the Liberals winning four seats in the province is quite an accomplishment, especially considering two of them are in Calgary (the first Liberal win there since Pierre Trudeau won his first mandate in '68).

[Tender Branson]

That Liberal win is even more impressive because turnout increased by some 7% and is now highest since 1993.

I like this recent trend of higher turnout compared with earlier elections (in Upper Austria, Vienna, Catalonia and now Canada).

Hopefully it continues in future elections.

[Boston Bread]

The Atlantic is more Liberal than Alberta is Conservative this time around. Spending a whole hour at 32-0-0 or 33-0-0 was downright eerie.

[CatoMinor]

Whats up with the lines of that Quebec seat along the Labrador border?

[Holmes]

Pierre-Luc Dusseault hung on pretty comfortably too.

[politicallefty]

I actually do have one question that's sort of been gnawing at my mind for a good portion of the campaign. What exactly drove down the Tory vote in BC? They seem to have recovered a bit from their worst polling numbers that were in the low-to-mid 20s, but nonetheless ended up third in the seat count with just 10 seats. It's not like BC has any historic love for the federal Liberals like Atlantic Canada. Was there a particular issue? Are green politics really that salient in BC?

[Panhandle Progressive]

I actually do have one question that's sort of been gnawing at my mind for a good portion of the campaign. What exactly drove down the Tory vote in BC? They seem to have recovered a bit from their worst polling numbers that were in the low-to-mid 20s, but nonetheless ended up third in the seat count with just 10 seats. It's not like BC has any historic love for the federal Liberals like Atlantic Canada. Was there a particular issue? Are green politics really that salient in BC?

I'm gonna say Trudeau's pledge of additional environmental protections along with his support for legalization of marijuana. These two plus the general national resentment towards Harper. My best guess.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Here are some good maps to show the election outcome:

1. 2011 vs 2015 election results
2. 2015 seats by province
3. 2015 overall national seat count (including clustered seats in cities)
4. Voter turnout (as %) from 1979 till yesterday.

http://imgur.com/a/dDe5h

[Vosem]

Update on Green performance: the Greens exceeded 10% of the vote in 9 ridings around the country. They did this in 6/7 ridings on Vancouver Island (all but North Island-Powell River), and 3 more: Thunder Bay-Superior North, where they had a floor-crossing incumbent in Bruce Hyer, along with Guelph in Ontario and Fredericton in New Brunswick. (The Greens actually also had an incumbent in Quebec, but he was some NDP flotsam elected on the 2011 wave no one had ever heard of who performed roughly like the average Green in Quebec).

These are the 9 ridings in Canada where the Greens exceeded 10%:
Saanich–Gulf Islands, British Columbia: 54.35% (Elizabeth May)
Victoria, British Columbia: 32.98% (Jo-Ann Roberts)
Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke, British Columbia: 19.97% (Frances Litman)
Nanaimo–Ladysmith, British Columbia: 19.70% (Paul Manly) 
Cowichan–Malahat–Langford, British Columbia: 16.98% (Fran Hunt-Jinnouchi) 
Thunder Bay–Superior North, Ontario: 13.82% (Bruce Hyer)
Fredericton, New Brunswick: 12.44% (Mary Lou Babineau)
Courtenay–Alberni, British Columbia: 11.75% (Glenn Sollitt) 
Guelph, Ontario: 11.32% (Gord Miller)