Democratic New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET)

[Gass3268]

@ryangrim says 54-46 Clinton in exits

He's a HuffPost reporter that's posted some pretty accurate leaked exits in the past few contests

I dont know, his Wisconsin top line leak was way off.

He had:
Sanders 53 (actual 56)
Clinton 46 (43)

Cruz 47 (48)
Trump 35 (35)
Kasich 15 (14)

Not way off at all.  I think these leaks are the actual exit poll top-lines

Nice!

[Mr. Morden]

Interesting...

Well, given that we also have this:



that points to the topline #s being very close between the two candidates, since the overall "energized" / "divided" party #s are close to being halfway between the Clinton and Sanders #s.

Actually, I just did some algebra on this.  Unfortunately, because of rounding, this isn't very precise, but I'd estimate a topline Clinton lead of ~10 points.

[The Other Castro]

@ryangrim says 54-46 Clinton in exits

He's a HuffPost reporter that's posted some pretty accurate leaked exits in the past few contests

I dont know, his Wisconsin top line leak was way off.

He had:
Sanders 53 (actual 56)
Clinton 46 (43)

Cruz 47 (48)
Trump 35 (35)
Kasich 15 (14)

Not way off at all.  I think these leaks are the actual exit poll top-lines

Plus the exit polls update throughout the night, so the initial toplines may have been matching.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

@ryangrim says 54-46 Clinton in exits

He's a HuffPost reporter that's posted some pretty accurate leaked exits in the past few contests

I dont know, his Wisconsin top line leak was way off.

He had:
Sanders 53 (actual 56)
Clinton 46 (43)

Cruz 47 (48)
Trump 35 (35)
Kasich 15 (14)

Not way off at all.  I think these leaks are the actual exit poll top-lines

Well to be fair working out a 7 point margin and it ends up nearly doubling isn't exactly "missed it by that much"

[Classic Conservative]

My gay cousin and his husband both voted for Bernie and Saratoga.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My gay cousin and his husband both voted for Bernie and Saratoga.

Good for them.

[IceSpear]

Interesting...

Well, given that we also have this:



that points to the topline #s being very close between the two candidates, since the overall "energized" / "divided" party #s are close to being halfway between the Clinton and Sanders #s.

Actually, I just did some algebra on this.  Unfortunately, because of rounding, this isn't very precise, but I'd estimate a topline Clinton lead of ~10 points.

That's around what this gives as well, if I did my math right.

[Vega]

That actually isn't too shabby for Sanders, he kept her below 10 points in her homestate.

[Eraserhead]

That actually isn't too shabby for Sanders, he kept her below 10 points in her homestate.

If that's the actual result, sure. Big if.

[Gass3268]

That actually isn't too shabby for Sanders, he kept her below 10 points in her homestate.

If that's the actual result, sure. Big if.

No, this is a big If

[gf20202]

That actually isn't too shabby for Sanders, he kept her below 10 points in her homestate.

If that's the actual result, sure. Big if.

That wouldn't be too bad, but 8-10 point win is still plus 24-30 delegates for her. If the goal is to win the nomination, he needed to actually beat her. Getting a little late for morale victories and expectations game, especially since he outspent her 2 to 1 in New York.

[Mehmentum]

It would be an underwhelming victory, but a victory nonetheless.

[swf541]

That actually isn't too shabby for Sanders, he kept her below 10 points in her homestate.

If that's the actual result, sure. Big if.

That wouldn't be too bad, but 8-10 point win is still plus 24-30 delegates for her. If the goal is to win the nomination, he needed to actually beat her. Getting a little late for morale victories and expectations game, especially since he outspent her 2 to 1 in New York.

CNN has been spinning that its very bad for her below 10 perception wise

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I have the feeling New York will set some sort of record for slow reporting.

[Eraserhead]

I've considered the fight for the nomination to be over for a while now but it would definitely be nice to see Sanders not completely blown out of the water tonight.

[Ronnie]

If that 46% figure is true, it would be a very impressive result for Bernie.  Not enough to get him nominated, of course, but impressive nonetheless.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If that 46% figure is true, it would be a very impressive result for Bernie.  Not enough to get him nominated, of course, but impressive nonetheless.

And the s*** will drag on and get uglier and uglier... such joy.

Let's be honest, the Sanders campaign signaled anything over 40% they would consider a moral victory. So there's almost no chance of some kind of "victory" element for him tonight.

[IceSpear]

Considering the media pumped up Bernie as a NY homeboy (and the campaign wholeheartedly embraced it), I'm very skeptical of the "but Hillary's homestate!" excuse.

[Matty]

fake

[YPestis25]

leaked exit poll 52-48 clinton according to twitter reports

Could you shoot us some links to that? I'm curious where it's coming from.

[Matty]

on further review, it's BS coming from a bernie troll on twitter.

[Holmes]

Leaked exit polls show Sanders at 65%.

[ElectionsGuy]

Chris Matthews should just work for the Clinton campaign already.

[Baki]

So we're looking at something roughly between 52-48 and 56-44?

[The Other Castro]

So we're looking at something roughly between 52-48 and 56-44?

We have no idea yet since these exit polls are pretty unreliable.